Best Trading Advice

[Tubbs]

I work for a company that sells kit that doesn't really work.

So it taught me that:

If you can't prove it - it doesn't work.

Sounds simple but we forget this in trading.

Blind faith.

Elliot wave and all these other things - Test them to destruction and you will find they don't work. Do it scientifically. If it works through extensive backtesting you've done it.

Personally I think most things don't.

 

[TWI]

I think there are many things that do not work and many that do.
Also think that in many cases things that do, end up not working as they are imperfetly implemented.

 

[barjon]

Many things work some of the time
Few things work much of the time
Nothing works all the time

There is no proof - only the next trade

 

[jimbo57]

I think some things work some of the time, and nothing works all the time.

It is in finding the 'some things' and the 'some of the time' that the battle lies - when you get these two to line up, you have an edge

 

[Tubbs]

I concede you are all right. But I'm not sure there is an answer to your approach.

 

[Trdr]

EW isn't a trading system; EW is a method of analyzing Price Movement.
See Tom Joseph's and Robert Miner's methods of trading based on EW — little EW, lots of other stuff.

Backtesting works only on past prices.

Price Movement is irregular, the antithesis of the scientific method.

Jimbo57 addresses trading irregularity, Twalker addresses trader irregularity.

 

[Charlton]

Discretionary strategies

I work for a company that sells kit that doesn't really work.

So it taught me that:

If you can't prove it - it doesn't work.

Sounds simple but we forget this in trading.

Blind faith.

Elliot wave and all these other things - Test them to destruction and you will find they don't work. Do it scientifically. If it works through extensive backtesting you've done it.

Personally I think most things don't.

Tubbs

Although my personal philosophy includes a natural leaning towards harmonics, fractals, wave patterns and number series Elliot Waves and Fib levels suffer from the tendency of the viewer to "curve-fit".

Often it seems you can base-line at one point on the chart and everything appears to align, then you move to another base-line and another set of data aligns. If it doesn't align exactly there is a tendency to say, well it's virtually there, so that's good enough for me. In addition viewers tend to add to fibonnaci levels additional levels inbetween, at "strategic" fractions,. Soon the chart is filled with so many levels its difficult to avoid them !

Discretionary strategies based on price, volume and understanding the underlying market and its participants are best. The problem is that these are more time-consuming than indicator-based ones, both in operation and back-testing (although experience will speed up the process)

Furthermore personal back-testing of discretionary strategies cannot really be subject to Tubbs rigorous back-testing of indicator-based systems. It's rather like the issue of testing paranormal phenomina. I suppose, at the end of the day, the only proof of such a strategy are consistent successes during forward-testing i.e. predictive tests

Charlton

 

[hungvir]

Well, it's all about taking sides in the market, isn't it. Let's patiently watch the bulls and bears fight each other each second, minute, hours, days and join the winning party. If there's no obvious winning one, then we go and do something else.

Good trading,

Hung

 

[hungvir]

By the way, I am doing something else now in terms of swing trading. The battles are won and lost at the moment but the war is in no way decided.

 

[dc2000]

If you can't prove it - it doesn't work.

And If one can't make it work then - it doesn't work - right??

Best Trading advice

The markets are an all you can eat buffet and they are open every day -There is no rush

All traders have losing trades - live with it

Minimise risk at all times

 

[bauer]

Theres no holy grail to trading, it's simply a case of finding what works for u and having the cofidence in it and yourself to pull the trigger.

What works for one won't necessarily work for another.