AriaS
Active member
- Messages
- 218
- Likes
- 92
Hi, guys. Ive been trading for 11 years now. in the past I used to be very successful in news trading, but thereafter I've failed for years to create a long-lasting non-news trading strategy.
I did have some temporary success, even had won one trading contest and got allocation of 100k, but in the end all my strategies had failed. They simply did not live up to my expectation.
Combination of factors that define a failure for me:
*Disclaimer: what feels like a failure to me, might not be to others. Some traders might overcome the problems mentioned below, and even become successful in a long term, but to me, they mean loss of interest.
1. A losing month that erases the gain of 2 previous months.
2. Several losing months.
3. Yearly recovery factor < 1.5, since my long term stock investment makes more.
4. Back tests fail during critical times - Covid 19, war etc (almost certainly would cause a failure at some point in the future).
Recently, for the first time ever I came up with a strategy that survives the bad periods of the past in back test (Covid 19, russian invasion of Ukraine, etc.). It works well with any pair, doesn't have negative months, and most important: its logic is not a result of optimization. The only drawback: I mostly back test it on OHLC. It's not perfect, but I compared as much as I could with real ticks and the result is close enough. Slippage also should not be a problem. Another drawback: back tests older than 6 years ago start showing unsatisfactory results and I don't yet know why. In the meantime, I started trading live and the result is close to the back test.
I did have some temporary success, even had won one trading contest and got allocation of 100k, but in the end all my strategies had failed. They simply did not live up to my expectation.
Combination of factors that define a failure for me:
*Disclaimer: what feels like a failure to me, might not be to others. Some traders might overcome the problems mentioned below, and even become successful in a long term, but to me, they mean loss of interest.
1. A losing month that erases the gain of 2 previous months.
2. Several losing months.
3. Yearly recovery factor < 1.5, since my long term stock investment makes more.
4. Back tests fail during critical times - Covid 19, war etc (almost certainly would cause a failure at some point in the future).
Recently, for the first time ever I came up with a strategy that survives the bad periods of the past in back test (Covid 19, russian invasion of Ukraine, etc.). It works well with any pair, doesn't have negative months, and most important: its logic is not a result of optimization. The only drawback: I mostly back test it on OHLC. It's not perfect, but I compared as much as I could with real ticks and the result is close enough. Slippage also should not be a problem. Another drawback: back tests older than 6 years ago start showing unsatisfactory results and I don't yet know why. In the meantime, I started trading live and the result is close to the back test.
