trendie
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Any recommendations on books on statistics and probability ?
If I wanted to evaluate the probability of an event, and assess the chances of the event being outside normal probability ( I suspect this is Standard Deviations etc ), please advise on a book(s) that would guide me to mathematically prove/disprove it.
Thanks.
PS: My initial enthusiasm for Delta is waning. I can see patterns in a given 4-cycle, but have difficulty seeing those same patterns ( even accounting for inversions ) in another 4-cycle.
(mind you, I am not "force-fitting", so if I cant see the pattern, or there is congestion, I "pass" on it rather than impose the Points ).
The above is for Intermediate-TD.
Even with Short-TD, the patterns do not appear to follow. Even allowing for some latitude, key events appear to be random. ( that is, if you selected your P1 looking at one 4-cycle STD, and then decided to start at a different chart, you would identify the P1 in a different position. )
Again, I "pass" if there is congestion, so as not to "force-fit" Points.
Inversions do not always occur at P1's.
Even allowing for Inversions at other points, (which Delta DOES NOT ALLOW ), the events are only notable after the event, and you could not "forecast" them. Sometimes the volaitility is such, that you couldnt trade it as the move has virtually finished before you can do anything about it.
My plan was to use Delta in a very simplistic form, only trading the P1 points, and to note inversions, as a "broad-brush" approach, and then to improve my sophistication by trading the Points.
I cant even confidently identify P1 in the cycle, according the Delta rules. I find that inversions take place at points other than P1.
Also, Delta suggests that major moves may also occur at P1. I have not found this to be the case.
So I cant even take a forecasted break-out trade at the P1 point.
I cant confidently use P1 inversions to get into a swing-trade early.
I have applied Delta to Dow and GBPUSD.
I will leave Delta, and let it lie for a few weeks, before coming back to it.
Enjoyable and frantic weekend, but ultimately, dissapointing.
( I shall do what Jim Sloman did, and let my subconscious sort things out, and maybe I can have an epiphany in the next couple of weeks, where it all falls into place. )
If I wanted to evaluate the probability of an event, and assess the chances of the event being outside normal probability ( I suspect this is Standard Deviations etc ), please advise on a book(s) that would guide me to mathematically prove/disprove it.
Thanks.
PS: My initial enthusiasm for Delta is waning. I can see patterns in a given 4-cycle, but have difficulty seeing those same patterns ( even accounting for inversions ) in another 4-cycle.
(mind you, I am not "force-fitting", so if I cant see the pattern, or there is congestion, I "pass" on it rather than impose the Points ).
The above is for Intermediate-TD.
Even with Short-TD, the patterns do not appear to follow. Even allowing for some latitude, key events appear to be random. ( that is, if you selected your P1 looking at one 4-cycle STD, and then decided to start at a different chart, you would identify the P1 in a different position. )
Again, I "pass" if there is congestion, so as not to "force-fit" Points.
Inversions do not always occur at P1's.
Even allowing for Inversions at other points, (which Delta DOES NOT ALLOW ), the events are only notable after the event, and you could not "forecast" them. Sometimes the volaitility is such, that you couldnt trade it as the move has virtually finished before you can do anything about it.
My plan was to use Delta in a very simplistic form, only trading the P1 points, and to note inversions, as a "broad-brush" approach, and then to improve my sophistication by trading the Points.
I cant even confidently identify P1 in the cycle, according the Delta rules. I find that inversions take place at points other than P1.
Also, Delta suggests that major moves may also occur at P1. I have not found this to be the case.
So I cant even take a forecasted break-out trade at the P1 point.
I cant confidently use P1 inversions to get into a swing-trade early.
I have applied Delta to Dow and GBPUSD.
I will leave Delta, and let it lie for a few weeks, before coming back to it.
Enjoyable and frantic weekend, but ultimately, dissapointing.
( I shall do what Jim Sloman did, and let my subconscious sort things out, and maybe I can have an epiphany in the next couple of weeks, where it all falls into place. )
Bigbusiness
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trendie,
I had the same problem. I read somewhere that the human eye is great at seeing patterns but can also see them where none exists. I think this is what happened when I tried Delta. It looked great when I went over old charts but when it came to picking the points in real time, I wasn't getting any real benefit. I think the inversions do happen at other points, that was the conclusion I drew after seeing that my short tem solution was not the same a two other versions I have seen. Or perhaps it is that point 1 moves around.
Perhaps combining it with other price and time methods might be worth a look. I just find that while I enjoy doing lots of research, I don't enjoy plastering my chart with lines and having to do lots of calculations every day, so I decided not to continue pursuing that idea.
I had the same problem. I read somewhere that the human eye is great at seeing patterns but can also see them where none exists. I think this is what happened when I tried Delta. It looked great when I went over old charts but when it came to picking the points in real time, I wasn't getting any real benefit. I think the inversions do happen at other points, that was the conclusion I drew after seeing that my short tem solution was not the same a two other versions I have seen. Or perhaps it is that point 1 moves around.
Perhaps combining it with other price and time methods might be worth a look. I just find that while I enjoy doing lots of research, I don't enjoy plastering my chart with lines and having to do lots of calculations every day, so I decided not to continue pursuing that idea.
Bcse Delta is so off topic from Astro Data Overlay,
I am compelled to offer a thread killing contribution.
It is a simple system to profit from Delta
Here's the system:
"
Identify the Delta date for each market you are trading
During the five day window (2 before, the Delta date and 2 after) surrounding each Delta, trail close entry stops behind the market.
If filled, trail close reverse stop (reverse one time only during each window.)
If filled, trail close stop loss stops.
As time moves away from ‘window’, protect profits with less restrictive stops.
Move stops in somewhat closer at half Delta
http://www.ilovewavs.com/comedy/Comm/delta.wav
"
source: TS boards
Even if Delta is unadulterated hokey, the idea is to methodically work each cycle and on
some cycle, the 'Delta' will hit a home run... since I'm thread killing (and it's not bcse I don't like this thread - I love the intended topic and the Delta topic too) I'll go ahead and ask and answer the next question. Is Delta the only pure time signal that will work with this 'system' ? Answer - of course not!
zdo
I am compelled to offer a thread killing contribution.
It is a simple system to profit from Delta
Here's the system:
"
Identify the Delta date for each market you are trading
During the five day window (2 before, the Delta date and 2 after) surrounding each Delta, trail close entry stops behind the market.
If filled, trail close reverse stop (reverse one time only during each window.)
If filled, trail close stop loss stops.
As time moves away from ‘window’, protect profits with less restrictive stops.
Move stops in somewhat closer at half Delta
http://www.ilovewavs.com/comedy/Comm/delta.wav
"
source: TS boards
Even if Delta is unadulterated hokey, the idea is to methodically work each cycle and on
some cycle, the 'Delta' will hit a home run... since I'm thread killing (and it's not bcse I don't like this thread - I love the intended topic and the Delta topic too) I'll go ahead and ask and answer the next question. Is Delta the only pure time signal that will work with this 'system' ? Answer - of course not!
zdo
trendie
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Hi ZDO,
thanks for your post.
I have already covered that !!
I pointed out that a broad-brush approach would be to trade the P1 points, being aware of the inversion.
Also the time around the P1 tends to be the most volatile, lending itself perhaps to a breakout strat.
Also, P1 points supposedly occur at notable lows.
I took these factors into consideration as a "simplified" use of Delta, before going onto the more refined Points.
I have had no luck finding the P1 points. ( on the Dow and GBPUSD )
May look at the Gold and other commodities described in the book.
again, thanks for post.
thanks for your post.
I have already covered that !!
I pointed out that a broad-brush approach would be to trade the P1 points, being aware of the inversion.
Also the time around the P1 tends to be the most volatile, lending itself perhaps to a breakout strat.
Also, P1 points supposedly occur at notable lows.
I took these factors into consideration as a "simplified" use of Delta, before going onto the more refined Points.
I have had no luck finding the P1 points. ( on the Dow and GBPUSD )
May look at the Gold and other commodities described in the book.
again, thanks for post.
trendie,
Sorry I didn't make it clear just the location of my tongue and cheek
The post was mostly tongue in cheek.
re: "I have had no luck finding the P1 points. ( on the Dow and GBPUSD )"
You don't find P1's - they find you !
You could do just as well 0 (no BETTER!) with this 'system' using the 5 days around the 1st of each
calendar, lunar, aztec, ferengi, wooki, or whatever month.
Point is -A good trader for whom Delta is a good fit can make money with Delta even though Delta 'points' have been completely discredited in two different studies. Am looking for references to those for you now, but since they aren't were they are 'supposed' to be, don't know when I will get to looking where they are not supposed to be.
all the best
zdo
Sorry I didn't make it clear just the location of my tongue and cheek
The post was mostly tongue in cheek.
re: "I have had no luck finding the P1 points. ( on the Dow and GBPUSD )"
You don't find P1's - they find you !
You could do just as well 0 (no BETTER!) with this 'system' using the 5 days around the 1st of each
calendar, lunar, aztec, ferengi, wooki, or whatever month.
Point is -A good trader for whom Delta is a good fit can make money with Delta even though Delta 'points' have been completely discredited in two different studies. Am looking for references to those for you now, but since they aren't were they are 'supposed' to be, don't know when I will get to looking where they are not supposed to be.
all the best
zdo
trendie
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sorry ZDO for missing the joke!!
Was at work, so only skimmed the post, and whizzed off the reply.
(damn companies. not only do they expect me to turn up, they then expect me to DO something to earn my exorbitant fees !! Whats that all about ? )
Yes, it takes us full circle to random entries, and coin-flips.
Good time to kill this thread - a full moon. Ironic.
Was at work, so only skimmed the post, and whizzed off the reply.
(damn companies. not only do they expect me to turn up, they then expect me to DO something to earn my exorbitant fees !! Whats that all about ? )
Yes, it takes us full circle to random entries, and coin-flips.
Good time to kill this thread - a full moon. Ironic.
Akuma99
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Wow what a read, and what a journey this thread was, it really showed the contrast between beliefs of traders and people in general, from plain nasty to very helpful. As for Delta, I've read the book, studied the charts, solved the odd market for delta points, but unfortunately it doesn't seem to hold too well, especially in the currency markets, in the end you are trading regular cycles rather than anything to do with the Moon as the system is based on.
I am more than happy to let others poo poo astrology methods for trading, I have back tested 10 years of data with several methods in the currency markets, and there are definitely some astrological patterns, especially with the moon, true node and mercury, but I will perhaps leave that to a more receptive audience.
The way I see it, if 90% of traders lose money as the brokerage house statistics show, and at least 90% of technical analysis forum threads are based on old hat traditional methods and indicators just mixed in different proportions, then perhaps I am on the right track after all. When it comes down to it, it's the bottom line that matters. If I could show you a method that placed 27 trades this year so far for 24 wins, 3 losses, with each win at least 100 pips/points, would you pay attention?, if so, throw a trine relationship between the Moon and the true node on the Euro or Sterling and see how things line up. The most recent I have mentioned briefly on my Astro-trading forum (http://www.beginnertrader.com/forum2/viewtopic.php?id=41)
Best of luck to all, no matter how you trade
I am more than happy to let others poo poo astrology methods for trading, I have back tested 10 years of data with several methods in the currency markets, and there are definitely some astrological patterns, especially with the moon, true node and mercury, but I will perhaps leave that to a more receptive audience.
The way I see it, if 90% of traders lose money as the brokerage house statistics show, and at least 90% of technical analysis forum threads are based on old hat traditional methods and indicators just mixed in different proportions, then perhaps I am on the right track after all. When it comes down to it, it's the bottom line that matters. If I could show you a method that placed 27 trades this year so far for 24 wins, 3 losses, with each win at least 100 pips/points, would you pay attention?, if so, throw a trine relationship between the Moon and the true node on the Euro or Sterling and see how things line up. The most recent I have mentioned briefly on my Astro-trading forum (http://www.beginnertrader.com/forum2/viewtopic.php?id=41)
Best of luck to all, no matter how you trade
Vorbis
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Let's not forget about the 'self-fulfilling prophecy' argument.
There is one obvious way that celestial bodies could be affecting human affairs that has got nothing to do with gravity etc. - Astrology!
If a significant number of traders/investors base their buying and selling decisions on particular planetary alignments then those patterns will indeed indirectly affect the price.
Obviously, how reliable this is will depend on how numerous the relevant group of believers is and to what degree their trading decisions are influenced.
It's similar in theory to the 'round number effect'. Round numbers on a chart have no significance beyond the psychological, but will often act as areas of strong support or resistance simply because people expect them to.
This argument probably applies to a lot of TA.
Naturally, I don't believe in any of this because I'm a Gemini.
Jbat001
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Vorbis said:
You're quite right. I'd go even further, inasmuch as the entire of TA is rooted in psychology. Fundamentals may drive basic valuations and profound changes may shove the price around now and again, but it's the mass market's interpretation of fundamental data that even allows us to draw anything from TA - enough people think alike, and thus it is so!
Just my twopenneth
bhati_akash
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WOULD YOU LIKE ASTROLOGY CONSULTANCY? PLEASE CONT ME AT [email protected]
I'm the beginning fan of Gann techniques.
IMHO, he was a genius.
Unprecedented genius.
Not many people nowadays, can appreciate his work.
And saying it I dont anything to sell even my knowledge.
But because I'm interested in esoteric I remember what he said:
"You are a part of a Bigger Picture. Why You should consider that astro moves has an impact on You ? Planets generates specific fields of influence, it impact on Electromagnetic Field of the Earth => Your brain => Your mental / emotional state => Your decisions / choices."
Of course, these moves are OUT of our Counscious what is obvious, but still have an impact. To show You more, Gann clearly stated that Everything in Your life is doing in Cycles (not trends). If You doubt, check numerology about Your life, You will be VERY amazed. By the way, big companies uses numerology as well to prepare the "commercial name" of their products, why ? bcoz there is a strict relation between the vibration of surroundings being received by Your subcounscious mind and Your perception.
I remember a documentary movie about Feng-shui in polish tv. The boss of big us company said that a day after the consultant of F-Sh finished his work the company took the biggest order in her history. One can say "pure accident" but if You have ANY experience in working on Yourself then You know there is nothing such as "accident", just the coincidenced that You are not aware of
For those who wants to open their minds more, look at this movie:
sacred knowledge of vibration and the power of human emotions - YouTube
IMHO, he was a genius.
Unprecedented genius.
Not many people nowadays, can appreciate his work.
And saying it I dont anything to sell
even my knowledge.But because I'm interested in esoteric I remember what he said:
"You are a part of a Bigger Picture. Why You should consider that astro moves has an impact on You ? Planets generates specific fields of influence, it impact on Electromagnetic Field of the Earth => Your brain => Your mental / emotional state => Your decisions / choices."
Of course, these moves are OUT of our Counscious what is obvious, but still have an impact. To show You more, Gann clearly stated that Everything in Your life is doing in Cycles (not trends). If You doubt, check numerology about Your life, You will be VERY amazed. By the way, big companies uses numerology as well to prepare the "commercial name" of their products, why ? bcoz there is a strict relation between the vibration of surroundings being received by Your subcounscious mind and Your perception.
I remember a documentary movie about Feng-shui in polish tv. The boss of big us company said that a day after the consultant of F-Sh finished his work the company took the biggest order in her history. One can say "pure accident" but if You have ANY experience in working on Yourself then You know there is nothing such as "accident", just the coincidenced that You are not aware of
For those who wants to open their minds more, look at this movie:
sacred knowledge of vibration and the power of human emotions - YouTube
Re: Planetary lines
Unfortunately, their book seems to be no longer unavailable, can You share it with me IF it's not against rules ?
As I understood the book is for free, so we dont break any laws.
Thank You in advance.
Unfortunately, their book seems to be no longer unavailable, can You share it with me IF it's not against rules ?
As I understood the book is for free, so we dont break any laws.
Thank You in advance.
Sorry Socrates, I must tell You a few words about Your so called "realism".
Actually the quantum physics which fan I am says clearly that:
"Object that is being observed changes depending on the observation of change IN IT". Sorry for my english.
So... if the Counscious observation of a scientist change the subatomic structure of observing subject... what is realism ?
Now You can ask: if yes, why I can not generate my own trading currency pair course ?
You could, if the Counscious of other participants would be the same.
Look at the "Science of Miracles" on YT.
Gann was a TimeMaster imho.
He discovered tools that should be learned on each trading course - these dedicated to success of course
For sceptics: EVEN if You start watching the results of Sq of Nine - You will never say ANY bad word pointing out "how crappy idea..."
The rest is Your Choice and Experience You choose
Simple as that.
BUT, asnwering to Trendie call and kicking some parts of the sceptics' bodies pls look at this website:
S O L A R C Y C L E S
You will be AMAZED what is the HIGH correlation between a MACRO-cycles and smaller "trading chaotic unpredictible" markets which is another bull**** because even studying trendlines, You project a high probability, even studying EMA 200 You do the same.
Actually the quantum physics which fan I am
says clearly that:"Object that is being observed changes depending on the observation of change IN IT". Sorry for my english.
So... if the Counscious observation of a scientist change the subatomic structure of observing subject... what is realism ?
Now You can ask: if yes, why I can not generate my own trading currency pair course ?
You could, if the Counscious of other participants would be the same.
Look at the "Science of Miracles" on YT.
Gann was a TimeMaster imho.
He discovered tools that should be learned on each trading course - these dedicated to success of course
For sceptics: EVEN if You start watching the results of Sq of Nine - You will never say ANY bad word pointing out "how crappy idea..."
The rest is Your Choice and Experience You choose
Simple as that.
BUT, asnwering to Trendie call and kicking some parts of the sceptics' bodies
pls look at this website:S O L A R C Y C L E S
You will be AMAZED what is the HIGH correlation between a MACRO-cycles and smaller "trading chaotic unpredictible" markets which is another bull**** because even studying trendlines, You project a high probability, even studying EMA 200 You do the same.
Trendie,
I want to answer on Your questions and other sceptics.
Pls look at the attached pic.
It includes price behaviour in frames of S/R areas... build-up by planetary movements based on Gann and his SqOf9.
Maybe there is some specialist on board that can say "it already drawn in Paint" but You may notice that, in my case, I dont know ANY technical tool, that prepares such a graph. Colours means angles, cause Gann based on angles as You know as well.
I dont know which code is the best so pls forgive me doubling:
I want to answer on Your questions and other sceptics.
Pls look at the attached pic.
It includes price behaviour in frames of S/R areas... build-up by planetary movements based on Gann and his SqOf9.
Maybe there is some specialist on board that can say "it already drawn in Paint"
but You may notice that, in my case, I dont know ANY technical tool, that prepares such a graph. Colours means angles, cause Gann based on angles as You know as well.I dont know which code is the best so pls forgive me doubling:
You are right Malaguti,
In case of Solars they only show some point on a timeline.
But acc. to astrologers, some planets HAS a specific let's say "climate" of influencing. Google Tim Bost. He sells mainly and have paid subscription, but there are also his vid on YT. It means, that IF having a proper knowledge, You see the let's "influential pattern", You know what to expect.
Here is another site with vids about cycles of Gann:
Astro Financial
And the same in case of human.
There is ONE experiment that can close any doubts. Go to a REAL astrologist (not a crappy phone predicting future) and ask him to record or write down to paper his "vision". Then do not look at it for 6 months and You will see
By the way, astrologers says that stars shows only an inclination, but If You have very strong mind and motivation You can come over it.
Now the key question imho is:
If it's true that anybody can jump over his astro-predictions, it doesnt matter really HOW big impact it has, yes ?
Yes and no. Yes, in cases of people that have a really strong Will, open-minded, having goals etc
And No, for those people which are totally on the other side.
Look at You - Us: we spend hundreds of hours if not thousand on forums, reading, learning, investing... when some part of Your friends may spend their evenings watching TV series and drinking in pubs. BTW, tomorrow friday
You see the point ?
In case of Solars they only show some point on a timeline.
But acc. to astrologers, some planets HAS a specific let's say "climate" of influencing. Google Tim Bost. He sells mainly and have paid subscription, but there are also his vid on YT. It means, that IF having a proper knowledge, You see the let's "influential pattern", You know what to expect.
Here is another site with vids about cycles of Gann:
Astro Financial
And the same in case of human.
There is ONE experiment that can close any doubts. Go to a REAL astrologist (not a crappy phone predicting future) and ask him to record or write down to paper his "vision". Then do not look at it for 6 months and You will see
By the way, astrologers says that stars shows only an inclination, but If You have very strong mind and motivation You can come over it.
Now the key question imho is:
If it's true that anybody can jump over his astro-predictions, it doesnt matter really HOW big impact it has, yes ?
Yes and no. Yes, in cases of people that have a really strong Will, open-minded, having goals etc
And No, for those people which are totally on the other side.
Look at You - Us: we spend hundreds of hours if not thousand on forums, reading, learning, investing... when some part of Your friends may spend their evenings watching TV series and drinking in pubs. BTW, tomorrow friday
You see the point ?
Dont look at horizontal lines, I drawn them by myself.
Look at the diagonal, if we may say that.
Look at the diagonal, if we may say that.
Here is You have a piece of good astro with explanation.
Market Astrology and the Santa Claus Rally
If You are not sceptic about astro-trading maybe You should look deeper into the Rabbit Hole. It's my case when I was unsatisfied that I dont see what is going on the other side of monitor and I started digging and I found relation between futures with real volume and spot (which was not obvious for me and non of my books said that, but You probably know it).
SO DONT BLAME ME, but look around and dig deeper. Gann predictions as I read was 86% but I also know it take time to understand most of his job.
Astrology is a HUGE science as You know, so dont complain and train.
Solarcycles that I mentioned before is just an example of WHAT is the correlation between MACRO changes and our small world.
"You've done a damage..." WTF ??
Market Astrology and the Santa Claus Rally
If You are not sceptic about astro-trading maybe You should look deeper into the Rabbit Hole. It's my case when I was unsatisfied that I dont see what is going on the other side of monitor and I started digging and I found relation between futures with real volume and spot (which was not obvious for me and non of my books said that, but You probably know it).
SO DONT BLAME ME, but look around and dig deeper. Gann predictions as I read was 86% but I also know it take time to understand most of his job.
Astrology is a HUGE science as You know, so dont complain and train.
Solarcycles that I mentioned before is just an example of WHAT is the correlation between MACRO changes and our small world.
"You've done a damage..." WTF ??
trendie
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malaguti,
part of the reason for this thread was to explore astrology and determine whether conventional rules worked, or not, were reliable or not.
but, as you so rightly said, which moon, half, quarter, etc.
But another aspect of this thread was to have no preconceptions, and just mark off highs and lows, and try to find patterns. Wherever they may be.
This way, you can build up your own analysis, of correlations, etc.
This approach allows you to discover your own patterns, and see if there is any significance.
example: if you just try to see if conventional full-moons result in highs/lows, all you do is repeat existing analysis.
If you look at full-moons, and see if highs/lows appear 1-day, 2-day, 3-day after, etc, you at least are breaking new ground, by building up a database of probabilities.
explore off-sets to key astrological events.
be original.
the full-moon, mars/jupiter trine, etc, may be the end-result of an earlier important event.
example: the birth-day is the 9-month end-result of a conception-day.
(with the exception of divinely inspired pregnancies, apt in current season!)
