Are we all just gambling?

[TickCOM]

Because something has happened before doesn't mean it is going to happen again.

If you have some form of crystal ball trading strategy them you are betting on a sure thing, thus there is no probability.

What we do fit's into the definition of gambling - it is what it is. How likely an event is to occur is neither here nor there.

I think that Man U will win more games than Derby this season so will be backing them throughout - I feel that I know how my trading will perform before kick off. By backtesting last seasons and this seasons results so far, I feel the odds are in my favor - am I gambling? (just to give an example)

JK

Hi JK,

Gambling is a quite strong word.

Will you call a daytrader who have been profitable the past 3 years a gambler ? I know several daytraders who very accurate trades during the day with very few losers.

I think its more about defining what is a gambler.

 

[DT]

you could well be arguing about semantics here...

but if you were to call a professional poker player or sports better a gambler than how is daytrading any different?

It is still gambling whether you're good at it or not, each individual trade/bet/hand is still a gamble whether you're consistent over time or not.

 

[jkplay]

I think its more about defining what is a gambler.

The definition of gambling:

1. Money that is risked for possible monetary gain
2. Take a risk in the hope of a favorable outcome.

I doesn't matter how profitable/successful you are - trading is gambling

JK

 

[yacarob1]

Does it matter if trading is gambling ?

Is it wrong or sinful to make a financial gain through gambling ?

I trade the stock markets and I bet on horses using well defined systems for both activities.

Luckily I win on both......if I am a professional gambler, I care not.

It beats working for a living and being part of the "slavery" system.

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

If trading is gambling, how come you have to pay tax on 'winnings' (unless it's through a spread bet)?

 

[jkplay]

If trading is gambling, how come you have to pay tax on 'winnings' (unless it's through a spread bet)?

Maybe you should start spreadbetting and stop paying tax

Trading is speculative investing. I think the long term investor and the short term trader are very different animals. People may trade for commercial hedging reasons, which stops them from gambling and the government are right to ask for tax.

Give Mr Darling a call and present your case - it is gambling.

JK

 

[barjon]

Well, there's GAMBLING and gambling. It's a very small gamble to cross the road when there's no traffic in evidence, but a very big one if you try to do it when the road is heavy with traffic moving at 70mph.

Anyway, what's in a word. I don't care if I'm called a gambler, a trader, a hobbyist, a chancer, or whatever.

good trading

jon

 

[ammo]

is being in denial really being in denial

 

[yacarob1]

If trading is gambling, how come you have to pay tax on 'winnings' (unless it's through a spread bet)?

Because Gordon says so.

 

[the blades]

Does it matter if trading is gambling ?

Is it wrong or sinful to make a financial gain through gambling ?

I trade the stock markets and I bet on horses using well defined systems for both activities.

Luckily I win on both......if I am a professional gambler, I care not.

It beats working for a living and being part of the "slavery" system.

I couldn't agree more.

UTB

 

[yacarob1]

I just wish I could conquer the randomness of Betfair Games....Texas Hold Em, etc.

This is 24/7 gambling and could lead to untold riches if I could devise a system to combat the randomness of the draw of the cards.

Alas, to date I have been unsuccessful.

 

[Lightning McQueen]

Does it matter if trading is gambling ?

Is it wrong or sinful to make a financial gain through gambling ?

I trade the stock markets and I bet on horses using well defined systems for both activities.

Luckily I win on both......if I am a professional gambler, I care not.

It beats working for a living and being part of the "slavery" system.

Your not a religious chap then.

"Although the word "gambling" does not appear in the Bible, the practice is clearly condemned in numerous passages of scripture. Gambling is based on the evil desire to get money or goods which belong to someone else without giving fair value in exchange. The Bible calls this sin "covetousness" and makes it clear that those who do such things shall not inherit the kingdom of God (Romans 1:28-32)."

http://www.bible.ca/s-gambling.htm

I couldn't agree more.

UTB

Straight to hell it is for you sir....

 

[yacarob1]

"Although the word "gambling" does not appear in the Bible, the practice is clearly condemned in numerous passages of scripture. Gambling is based on the evil desire to get money or goods which belong to someone else without giving fair value in exchange. The Bible calls this sin "covetousness" and makes it clear that those who do such things shall not inherit the kingdom of God (Romans 1:28-32)."

Forgive me Father.




My horses are doing pretty well so far today.

 

[JTrader]

No.

For me, gambling is based more on chance. Whereas good trading is based on probability.

Sure, you predict with a high level of accuracy when it comes to gambling. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that England would beat Canada in the RWC, or that Chelsea are likely to beat Derby the next time they meet in the league, or that the FA would sack Steve Mclaren after England failed to qualify.......the educated sports gambler would have seen the 3 likely outcomes immediately.........
However, these are all but dead certs, and the odds the bookmaker offers, would reflect this.............
In trading, you do not get odds, you simply get a spread/commissions that yare usually the same at all times, as you decide to enter/exit the market...........
So the trader with a solid entry & exit strategy, is trading when the "odds" are stacked in his favour, but he is not being penalised for betting on a dead cert.

If you look at another type of gambling such as the casino, I don't know an awful lot about it to be honest. But it seems that its more of a 50/50 chance thing - i.e. the roulette wheel, something which you do not have any control over - i.e. through past performance - it comes down to 50/50 look.

So, if the trader is a novice doesn't have a clear, well defined entry & exit strategy based on past performance/market dynamics/probability of success etc., and is relying on the gods to be favourable with his trade, I see this as gambling.
Trading becomes trading when the entry & exit strategy used is based on clear solid objective researched principles - i.e. backtesting/past performance - through which you can look at the ratio of winners to losers etc., a market dynamic that you have discovered (eg. EURUSD always drops 30 pips at midnight ), and the probability of success with continued implementation of that strategy is better than a 50/50 shot in the dark.

 

[jkplay]

No.

For me, gambling is based more on chance. Whereas good trading is based on probability.

Sure, you predict with a high level of accuracy when it comes to gambling. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that England would beat Canada in the RWC, or that Chelsea are likely to beat Derby the next time they meet in the league, or that the FA would sack Steve Mclaren after England failed to qualify.......the educated sports gambler would have seen the 3 likely outcomes immediately.........
However, these are all but dead certs, and the odds the bookmaker offers, would reflect this.............
In trading, you do not get odds, you simply get a spread/commissions that yare usually the same at all times, as you decide to enter/exit the market...........
So the trader with a solid entry & exit strategy, is trading when the "odds" are stacked in his favour, but he is not being penalised for betting on a dead cert.

If you look at another type of gambling such as the casino, I don't know an awful lot about it to be honest. But it seems that its more of a 50/50 chance thing - i.e. the roulette wheel, something which you do not have any control over - i.e. through past performance - it comes down to 50/50 look.

So, if the trader is a novice doesn't have a clear, well defined entry & exit strategy based on past performance/market dynamics/probability of success etc., and is relying on the gods to be favourable with his trade, I see this as gambling.
Trading becomes trading when the entry & exit strategy used is based on clear solid objective researched principles - i.e. backtesting/past performance - through which you can look at the ratio of winners to losers etc., a market dynamic that you have discovered (eg. EURUSD always drops 30 pips at midnight ), and the probability of success with continued implementation of that strategy is better than a 50/50 shot in the dark.

You have just explained the most sophisticated form of gambling - trading the financial markets.

No matter how you dress it up you are gambling. It's not all fixed odd's now in the sport TRADING world - even if it was, you are betting on future outcomes, as you are when trading.

Research, backtesting, knowing your market, discipline, entry and exit levels are all things that the sophisticated gambler would do.

As I said earlier a trader is an ''advanced gambler with all the tools and knowledge required to be consistently profitable''

Just as you can be a financial trader you can also be a sport trader - having your own strategy and edge doesn't change what you hope to achieve and I imagine we are all trying to profit from future event's/movements


There is not too much difference between the two in my opinion - if you missed the post earlier I would like you to look at this sport trading software and this should explain why I make such a direct comparison.

http://www.betangel.com/main/software.php

I think we are getting into how seriously you take trading and this may look past what it really is - up or down bet's on financial instruments. Some guys take football just as seriously and form very strong opinions based on research.

JK

 

[DT]

Sure, you predict with a high level of accuracy when it comes to gambling. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that England would beat Canada in the RWC, or that Chelsea are likely to beat Derby the next time they meet in the league, or that the FA would sack Steve Mclaren after England failed to qualify.......the educated sports gambler would have seen the 3 likely outcomes immediately.........
However, these are all but dead certs, and the odds the bookmaker offers, would reflect this.............
In trading, you do not get odds, you simply get a spread/commissions that yare usually the same at all times, as you decide to enter/exit the market...........
So the trader with a solid entry & exit strategy, is trading when the "odds" are stacked in his favour, but he is not being penalised for betting on a dead cert.

Do you not think that the markets also price in almost dead certs?

For example if most market participants think there is going to be a 25bp rise in interest rates and all the indications are pointing towards one do you not see that this is going to be already reflected in the price of interest rate derivatives in the same way that the odds on England V Canada will reflect the general consensus that England is likely to win.

 

[yacarob1]

My systems picked out 6 horses today.

All bets placed through Betfair.

4 win bets

2 place bets

Results

All 4 win bets won.

On the place bets I got a 2nd place ( as good as winning ) and a loser.

It was an unusually good day but my systems are successful in the long term, although not always on a daily basis.

THANK YOU LORD

 

[Snownation]

THANK YOU LORD

So are you a Christian gambler?

 

[Splitlink]

Is trading gambling, anymore than any other activity where a decision has to be made?

Everything we do that is based on a decision is a gamble, surely? I think it is, anyway. From the time I started my chosen career, I was taking a chance on my ability to get ahead. Aren't we all?

The same when we get married. Making a decision depending on the welfare of a wife and kids can be a worrying process.

Some would not include these examples as gambling and would rather say that they are taking a calculated decision after weighing up all the pros and cons. Ok, that's what I do with my trading.

When an opportunity appears there are two choices. Take it or leave it. All the Captains of Industry have done that, but there are a lot of would-have-beens who, also, took those opportunities and failed. We don't hear about them.

Split

 

[Splitlink]

So are you a Christian gambler?

Not on Sundays. He just gives thanks.

Split