Are JGBs about to collapse soon?

[arabianights]

Looks like we have most of the ingredients tied up. Mind you, I could imagine others thinking the same a decade ago!

Thoughts?

 

[Martinghoul]

No... It's all bullsh1t that peeps like Bass, Hayman and others are spreading.

 

[arabianights]

Equivocal?

 

[Martinghoul]

Equivocal?

Un!

 

[arabianights]

bugger

 

[Martinghoul]

Don't worry, cap'n... Trust me on this, this trade is a trap for wannabe macro BSDs. Like clockwork, they get f*cked over every year. Last year it was Einhorn who started the craze, with Paulson hot on his heels. The publicity generated probably helped the first guy into the trade to get out, but the ones that followed weren't so lucky.

 

[arabianights]

Oh I know it's been "popular" for a while, indeed I believe original BSDs @ LTCM were doing it back in late 90s... but timing is everything, you know?

 

[Martinghoul]

Oh I know it's been "popular" for a while, indeed I believe original BSDs @ LTCM were doing it back in late 90s... but timing is everything, you know?

Fo' shizzle... I just don't think there's any reason to believe that the time is right. I think you're gonna know when/if it's the Big One and that's when you go postal on 'em JGBs.

 

[Pazienza]

How is Japan managing to keep going? Isn't its debt to GDP something like 200%?

 

[DashRiprock]

Fo' shizzle... I just don't think there's any reason to believe that the time is right. I think you're gonna know when/if it's the Big One and that's when you go postal on 'em JGBs.

hi

can you say what you mean by go postal?

i think the japanese have like post office pensions or something? is that what your talking about?

 

[Pazienza]

hi

can you say what you mean by go postal?

i think the japanese have like post office pensions or something? is that what your talking about?

It means to behave like a postal worker - fly into a rage and kill people:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Going_postal

In this context, I suppose he means "short the sh1t out of them".

 

[DashRiprock]

doh!

thanks fonz

this is what I was talking about
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Post_Bank

 

[TheBramble]

Gentlemen, have pity on a poor retail boy and let me know if I need to take a fundamental view on JPY.

 

[Pazienza]

Gentlemen, have pity on a poor retail boy and let me know if I need to take a fundamental view on JPY.

Take a fundamental view on it? You mean, blow it up or something?

 

[TheBramble]

No. I mean rather than take a fine view on where the Daily pivot is and decide on a quickie based on technicals, whether I should be expecting the ass to drop out of the Yen imminently and bollox to the technicals, and just go large on a cheap Yen.

 

[TheBramble]

Are you trying to wind me up Paz? ‘Cos if you are, just remember, I have the picture of you with Arabian’s brother. Well, just Arabian’s brother actually, but just after he’s finished with you….it’s enough.

 

[Martinghoul]

How is Japan managing to keep going? Isn't its debt to GDP something like 200%?

It's nearly all (95%) held domestically, which makes all the difference in the world.

As to JPY, I wouldn't short that either.

 

[Pazienza]

It's nearly all (95%) held domestically, which makes all the difference in the world.

As to JPY, I wouldn't short that either.

Ah, that I did not know.

 

[arabianights]

hmm.... I am tempted to short em soon... need to see how they react to BOJ liquidity support.

 

[Pento]

100 trillion yen of QE not putting you off shorting them?