Arbitrage fixed odds?

[merriegarden]

Hello - new to the site and my first post...bear with me!

I am interested in arbitrage fixed odds trading, and with a basic knowledge signed up to betsfortraders and betonmarkets - after about 30 minutes I found an opportunity linked to EUR/SEK that returned 25% using a simple one touch and no touch. I assume this was complete beginners luck as haven't found anything since!

Can anyone tell me if there really are sufficient opportunities to make money with this strategy (I'm not after instant or massive absolute returns)?

If so are there any particular trade types or markets that offer the most opportunities?

Thanks for any help...

 

[grantx]

Merrie,

I can't help, I'm afraid but well done anyway. Out of curiosity, could you explain the trade in more detail, ie where you saw the arbitrage?

If I may make a suggestion, we won't know whether it is beginner's luck; if it is, the next trade could be a loser. To offset the risk, reduce your stake - if it goes the wrong, hopefully you will still have preserved some of the winnings.

Till the next 25%,

Grant.

 

[merriegarden]

Grant

Thanks for the reply. The trade was based on EUR/SEK hitting 9.25 in the following 5 days - the cost of the no touch to win £500 was £300 and the cost of the one touch to win £500 was £100. I suspect there is considerable skill to looking in the right place - otherwise a bit like looking for a needle in a haystack!

 

[stevespray]

Grant

Thanks for the reply. The trade was based on EUR/SEK hitting 9.25 in the following 5 days - the cost of the no touch to win £500 was £300 and the cost of the one touch to win £500 was £100. I suspect there is considerable skill to looking in the right place - otherwise a bit like looking for a needle in a haystack!

Were they with different bookies?

Steve.

 

[grantx]

Merrie,

I've got it. I don't think this was an arbitrage in the strict sense but it could be defended as a statistical arbitrage, ie you know probability of a price range occuring (or not) for this time period based on historical data covering 5-day periods. I think it is a simple as that. Just make sure historic data supports your position.

Steve,

One bookie, but two separate bets on two separate outcomes.

Grant.

 

[merriegarden]

Actually Steve is correct - 2 bets with different bookies on two separate outcomes. Therefore no matter the outcome one of the bets would have paid, so I didn't need to take a view either way. Perhaps it was just a fluke rather than a long term strategy!

 

[arabianights]

Way I'm reading it is that was this was genuine arbitrage between two different bookies as they are inverse bets and give a guaranteed return of 20%.

 

[grantx]

Merrie,

I stand corrected. That's amazing. How was it identified? Were you constantly monitoring EUR/SEK quotes from the two bookies? You could have bet the farm on this.

Grant.

 

[stevespray]

Actually Steve is correct - 2 bets with different bookies on two separate outcomes. Therefore no matter the outcome one of the bets would have paid, so I didn't need to take a view either way. Perhaps it was just a fluke rather than a long term strategy!

Ok, I understand now what your are trying to say. What you really mean is 'same outcome' or 'one outcome' ie one bet was sure to win because one bet was the inverse of the other. What can happen with some of these is that the expiry conditions can vary just ever so slightly so one needs to be careful (for example if the market lands exactly on the border).

Either way it looks like yours was a good spot. Which co's were you monitoring?

Steve.

 

[stevespray]

Merrie,

I stand corrected. That's amazing. How was it identified? Were you constantly monitoring EUR/SEK quotes from the two bookies? You could have bet the farm on this.

Grant.

I agree, 20% profit is stuff of dreams for experienced traders. I'm guessing that the problem with a big bets is that one of the firms might have cried foul. Even if you built it up slowly they might claim churning. Better to bet a thousand quid or so, take your easy profit and move on. On top of that I have a few mates who have made regular money through some of this fixed odds stuff and most are now on manual dealing. At the end of the day, if you make money in fixed odds, you stand out like a sore thumb. I get the feeling that if you make money they assume that it must be arbitrage of some kind. These firms fear arbitrage with a passion.

Steve.

 

[CHRISTO9HER]

If you want to get into fixed odds arbitrage then there are ten times more opportunities in sports betting than in financial betting. You can find the opportunities yourself or employ software that will look for opportunities from live data feeds.

I have dabbled in sports arbitrage from time to time, never made a loss

There is a website that monitors all the sports betting companies and displays arbitrage opportunities. ArbSpy.com | Sports Arbitrage | Bonus Arbitrage | Free Bets I havnt actually used it yet but I know people that have and have made money. You have to be quick becuase they dont stay on the site long! You do have to open a lot of betting accounts though.

In addition (and this really is the ultimate arbitrage), almost all of the betting sites now offer free bets when you open an account. Surely I am not the only one who has realised that you just take the free bet, take the other side of it in betfair (you can lay bets as well as back them in betfair) and you have genuine risk free money. I made £500 in one weekend doing this and am currently getting a credit card registered to another address so I can come back for seconds.

Look to sports and you will make more money from this. But would you still feel like a "trader"?

 

[merriegarden]

Steve, Grant

Thanks for your comments. As it was my first attempt I kept the stake manageable in case I had miscalculated - if I found a similar opportunity again I would definitely increase the stake.

Unfortunately there was no system involved in finding the opportunity, I looked at fx as in my mind more volatile and therefore more likely that bookies would have different views. I looked at all the currency pairs, found a small mispricing in EUR/SEK and then tweaked the strike and the expiry until the difference was maximised. I found that looking just at Betonmarkets and betsfortraders but have also just opened an account with binarybet to see if that adds more opportunities.

Christo9her - Thanks for the tips, I think I'll try a few more times with financials as I'm more comfortable in that arena, but wouldn't rule out looking at sports if it turns out to be too difficult to find further opportunities.

Merrie

 

[donaldduke]

In the early days of IG binaries i once arbed a bet on the same platform.
On the final day a weekly binary bet becomes equivalent to daily binary bet.
And IG were quoting different prices for what was essentially the same bet.
Made 500pounds risk free.

 

[stevespray]

In the early days of IG binaries i once arbed a bet on the same platform.
On the final day a weekly binary bet becomes equivalent to daily binary bet.
And IG were quoting different prices for what was essentially the same bet.
Made 500pounds risk free.

Yum Yum :cheesy:

 

[stevespray]

I agree with GJ up to a point. The key in finding this kind of thing is ones ability to 'think outside the box'. Ring any binary desk and they will tell you that their models arent 100% full proof - there are always times where they have to step in. Therefore it is a question of identifying potential times where a mechanical model might not work. I'd suggest that most of the differences in prices are brought about by different implied volatility calculations (assuming that they are identical intruments).

Steve.

 

[stevespray]

Just been looking at Betsfortraders webiste......... What a rip-off!! 7 Day bet, to make £1,000, covering both outcomes comes back with a cost of £1,230 !!!! Nice 23% spread there. You have to be bloody good to make anything there.

Steve.

 

[stevespray]

Just been looking at Betsfortraders webiste......... What a rip-off!! 7 Day bet, to make £1,000, covering both outcomes comes back with a cost of £1,230 !!!! Nice 23% spread there. You have to be bloody good to make anything there.

Steve.

PS I just tried a quote for inside / outside a range for an hour on ftse and it is even worse. To cover both outcomes the bet would cost £1,700!! 70% spread. Does anyone actually play their system? It seems a total rip off.

At least Robin Hood wore a mask.

Steve.

 

[Erikthered]

PS I just tried a quote for inside / outside a range for an hour on ftse and it is even worse. To cover both outcomes the bet would cost £1,700!! 70% spread. Does anyone actually play their system? It seems a total rip off.

At least Robin Hood wore a mask.

Steve.

check betonmarkets and compare the prices. I am curious to know the difference in their pricing

 

[mc2]

In the early days of IG binaries i once arbed a bet on the same platform.
On the final day a weekly binary bet becomes equivalent to daily binary bet.
And IG were quoting different prices for what was essentially the same bet.
Made 500pounds risk free.

How so? A weekly is relative to the level a week ago, a daily relative to yesterday's close....

 

[oak]

Yeah... different strikes unless close of yesterday was very close to close of last week.... so worth looking for that opportunity in trading weeks v days.... the financial models might behave slightly differently.