Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

Looks like there was some technical significance to my morning call of 5785. It conspicuously faked because it signalled under, not at, a zone of S/R (5779) and therefore had to fall until it found support. Then it took off and ploughed through resistance lines until it got to the 5785 it couldn't get at earlier. Weird.

That's my interpretation anyway.

Now at 5764.

50% Fib is the 62 region which is the first significant S/R region it broke through. 61% Fib is the line of the W bottom formation it broke out off. Not been tested.
 
Splitlink said:
This is a spike on the hourly. The trend is still down, I think.
Click to expand...

We went so far so quickly the bullish pullback ended very quick.

I agree, still bearish, back to 5742 and perhaps lower, although I would be wary of another spike up or flag pattern right about now because we are on the line where the breakout started.
 
Dick Lexic said:
well done dj and split...i'm still sitting on my ar*e
Click to expand...

dj did all right but I got a bronze. I left home with a limit on. As it happened it was too low. 40 odd points too low, in fact. :( Still. I had to go out and that was that and I don't think that many did believe that it would go up so far, so fast.

It has given me some profit over the week and encouragement for next.
 
Splitlink said:
dj did all right but I got a bronze. I left home with a limit on. As it happened it was too low. 40 odd points too low, in fact. :( Still. I had to go out and that was that and I don't think that many did believe that it would go up so far, so fast.

It has given me some profit over the week and encouragement for next.
Click to expand...

Well done Splitlink, and thanks for your links of advice this week.

In some future week I too will trade for real. Either FTSE day or Wall Street in evening.

Thanks everyone who have listened to my predictions so far. I've gained confidence from the seriousness in which some of them have been taken - and the fact I've had some good calls, which have contradicted received wisdom.

It is 500% easier to make predictions than trades though. I understand they are not the same thing. Trade requires a trend prediction + timing (so you don't enter before a pullback within the trend).

Next week I intend to more aggressively work on my timing and step up my practice trades. I mostly failed in my attempt today because my trend prediction was off.
 
et. said:
Well done Splitlink, and thanks for your links of advice this week.

In some future week I too will trade for real. Either FTSE day or Wall Street in evening.

Thanks everyone who have listened to my predictions so far. I've gained confidence from the seriousness in which some of them have been taken - and the fact I've had some good calls, which have contradicted received wisdom.

It is 500% easier to make predictions than trades though. I understand they are not the same thing. Trade requires a trend prediction + timing (so you don't enter before a pullback within the trend).

Next week I intend to more aggressively work on my timing and step up my practice trades. I mostly failed in my attempt today because my trend prediction was off.
Click to expand...


thanks for your predictions et, good luck with your trading
 
et. said:
Well done Splitlink, and thanks for your links of advice this week.

In some future week I too will trade for real. Either FTSE day or Wall Street in evening.

Thanks everyone who have listened to my predictions so far. I've gained confidence from the seriousness in which some of them have been taken - and the fact I've had some good calls, which have contradicted received wisdom.

It is 500% easier to make predictions than trades though. I understand they are not the same thing. Trade requires a trend prediction + timing (so you don't enter before a pullback within the trend).

Next week I intend to more aggressively work on my timing and step up my practice trades. I mostly failed in my attempt today because my trend prediction was off.
Click to expand...

You've been very helpful, et, thanks.

I think that you will be better off trading for real. You've no idea how the fact that you could lose your stop loss amount sharpens the mind. :cheesy:
 
Thanks SD.

Splitlink said:
You've been very helpful, et, thanks.

I think that you will be better off trading for real. You've no idea how the fact that you could lose your stop loss amount sharpens the mind. :cheesy:
Click to expand...

Yes and no. :)

I tried in the past, e.g. bullish trade. What happened was I entered, price went south breaking the stop. If it was bearish trade, it immediately went north, breaking the stop. I never saw profit. Made about 40 trades, profit about 30% time. Many of the losses were actually great decisions, but I cut them for minor losses before they saw massive profit. Likewise with the profitable trades. Haven't lost any significant amount of money but I was - and still am - "all over the road" with my timing such that it just doesn't make sense for me to trade real money. At times it seems like I'm behaving randomly so I've clearly something still to work out.

I now accept my strategy more because after basic principles of S/R and the price there is nowhere else to go. Using indicators you feel like a sucker when it fakes, and there is a temptation to always try new indicators and combinations of indicators. I can't be embarrassed or too self-critical about losing a trade with a strategy based on support and resistance because the price is the ultimate indicator, and if it's wrong, well, you could do nothing to change that. It's where money management comes in, and I can do that.

I could never have posted predictions before based on my indicator strategies... The practice period is for me to regain confidence in making real trades and test impulsive tendencies.
 
Lee Shepherd said:
I'm posting a quick screenshot now of the dax trade for reference at a later date. Otherwise people tend to start screaming, usually through frustration that I'm not for real.

For those who do not know how I trade:

In short: I start with small stakes and look to build into large positions then wait for a major pullback or rally, sometimes chopping out as I go and other times holding for the big one. Trades usually take longer than a few days in most market conditions and can run for weeks chopping in and out of ranges.

Lee Shepherd
Click to expand...

Hi Lee

Thanks for the post, couple of questions.
Is there advantage of trading the Dec contact rather than the current market.
Also IG have told there is no div payment on the DAX and it is a performance based market. Is this true. Have only scalped the DAX intraday.

The reason I ask is that in the past I have only done long term trades on the ASX,FTSE and AUD/USD. Problem is that on the short side you have to pay the div and rollover.
DAX would be good option on the short side if you dont pay a div and looks like market that trends well over a period of time.
All the best with your trades.

Thanks.
 
Enjoy the long weekend UK FTSE traders.
I remember those weekends in Great Yarmouth and Hunstanton.:LOL:
 

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bustech said:
Hi Lee

Thanks for the post, couple of questions.
Is there advantage of trading the Dec contact rather than the current market.
Also IG have told there is no div payment on the DAX and it is a performance based market. Is this true. Have only scalped the DAX intraday.

The reason I ask is that in the past I have only done long term trades on the ASX,FTSE and AUD/USD. Problem is that on the short side you have to pay the div and rollover.
DAX would be good option on the short side if you dont pay a div and looks like market that trends well over a period of time.
All the best with your trades.

Thanks.
Click to expand...

Hi Bustech,

Nice to meet you.

Forgive my ignorance on currency's, I use a few pairs for my strat but I don't trade them and therefore know nothing about divs and rollovers.

IG doesn't pay nor charge a dividend on the futures contracts, however there is interest built in to the price on the forward contracts for most markets which can be negative or positive. Currently with Dax30 the price is the same (bar the spread of 6). This makes it a great trade as it minimizes the risk, the only true risk is me on this one.

Take the DJIA30 Dec for example and you'll notice that the price is better played for the longs as currently it's offering around 90pts in ones favor, this being if the price remains the same over the period of time up to expiry of the contract you automatically pocket these 90pts. Of course we know full well it doesn't work that easily but naturally it helps with an edge as over the time period I could for example be off my target by 90pts and still come out break even in comparison to the cash price.

Obviously I wouldn't be long DJIA at present as I am expecting the markets to retrace.

Have a great long weekend.

Lee Shepherd
 
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