Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

MartinC-J said:
We've started where we left off yesterday. ES and FESX going up. FTSE determined not to follow.
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Well, ftse opened about 18 higher than it should have done if it had reflected the dow fall after ftse close. The faster pace of the 8:30 reversal (a tad early but nice :)) has redressed the balance and we're now about on all fours relative to dow to where we were at ftse close yesterday.
 
yesterday s&p had some heavy volume (my charts are down today) but seemed to be a tad on the big side so my logical brain says it aint like them to be buying the top unless buzz lightyear is in on it:)
 
barjon said:
Well, ftse opened about 18 higher than it should have done if it had reflected the dow fall after ftse close. The faster pace of the 8:30 reversal (a tad early but nice :)) has redressed the balance and we're now about on all fours relative to dow to where we were at ftse close yesterday.
Click to expand...

Jon - I know you are talking the cash price, but I am looking at the futures price action and surely that should already reflect the movement on the Dow after the FTSE cash close. I know the future should also recognise the underlying cash prices that make up the FTSE, but which leads first, cash or futures. I always thought it was the futures that led and the cash prices followed.

Normally the FTSE future mirrors, to some extent, the price action on the ES and FESX, and it is is unusual for a breakout on the ES not to be confirmed by the FTSE. Today and yesterday the FTSE has clearly not wanted to collaborate. My trading strategy usually looks for confirmation on the ES and FESX for trades that I take on the FTSE. It just makes it harder to trade with confidence.
 
Dick Lexic said:
yesterday s&p had some heavy volume (my charts are down today) but seemed to be a tad on the big side so my logical brain says it aint like them to be buying the top unless buzz lightyear is in on it:)
Click to expand...

If I look at the daily volumes over the last 4 weeks for ES, they are very low compared to the usual run rate
 
MartinC-J said:
Jon - I know you are talking the cash price, but I am looking at the futures price action and surely that should already reflect the movement on the Dow after the FTSE cash close. I know the future should also recognise the underlying cash prices that make up the FTSE, but which leads first, cash or futures. I always thought it was the futures that led and the cash prices followed.

Normally the FTSE future mirrors, to some extent, the price action on the ES and FESX, and it is is unusual for a breakout on the ES not to be confirmed by the FTSE. Today and yesterday the FTSE has clearly not wanted to collaborate. My trading strategy usually looks for confirmation on the ES and FESX for trades that I take on the FTSE. It just makes it harder to trade with confidence.
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a lot has broken dowen the last two weeks in terms of correlation Martin,, currencies, bonds, equities.... not doing what they usually do.

A city friend tels me that this is not unusual in the first 2-3 weeks of the year as large pension funds are re-allocating , so it maybe that a lot of money is going into US stocks , but less so into FTSE
 
DaddyJohn said:
If I look at the daily volumes over the last 4 weeks for ES, they are very low compared to the usual run rate
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might be a rouge spike but looks big on the weekly dj i'll post a daily chart
 

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MartinC-J said:
Jon - I know you are talking the cash price, but I am looking at the futures price action and surely that should already reflect the movement on the Dow after the FTSE cash close. I know the future should also recognise the underlying cash prices that make up the FTSE, but which leads first, cash or futures. I always thought it was the futures that led and the cash prices followed.

Normally the FTSE future mirrors, to some extent, the price action on the ES and FESX, and it is is unusual for a breakout on the ES not to be confirmed by the FTSE. Today and yesterday the FTSE has clearly not wanted to collaborate. My trading strategy usually looks for confirmation on the ES and FESX for trades that I take on the FTSE. It just makes it harder to trade with confidence.
Click to expand...

Martin

Yes, I'm talking cash prices - and SB ones at that :) - but I'd be surprised if you weren't seeing something similar on futures, particular since I guess SB algorithms are attached to futures out of hours. Interesting that you look for ES and FESX confirmation before (?) taking trades on FTSE. I tend to the other way round - see it on the DOW and assume it's going to happen on FTSE - albeit reluctantly sometimes.

You're right that FTSE hasn't been collaborating as much as usual on individual moves, but all that headstrong rushing about hither and thither has netted off to more or less matching DOW in the end - on a cumulative basis FTSE is about 30 points higher than where it would have been had it exactly matched DOW since start of the year.

Interesting today that we've had 8:30 and 9:00 reversals - both a tad early - and FTSE has exaggerated the moves compared to DOW both ways.

jon
 
"Interesting today that we've had 8:30 and 9:00 reversals - both a tad early" and now the 10:00 is trying. Enough for me to protect long anyway.
 
DJ - Thanks for that info from your city friend. Let's hope it settles down soon.

Jon - You're right. I tend to see the move in the ES first and then expect the FTSE to fall in line eventually. But I trade the FTSE mostly and rarely the ES, and I look for the correct price action and signal bars for timing my entries on the FTSE. I look to the ES/FESX just for confirmation of my FTSE position and if they don't give that confirmation I tend to stay out.

As for today, this is looking like a typical wednesday which tend to be range days. So far that range has been 27 pts wide, and for confirmation of this ranging it probably needs to retest 5632.
 
Dick Lexic said:
might be a rouge spike but looks big on the weekly dj i'll post a daily chart
Click to expand...

I was looking at ES.. but just the same -- a lot of disparity in our conclusions.

I will look at cash..

Do you have a daily ES chart .. so I can compare?

I might have a feed problem
 
DaddyJohn said:
I was looking at ES.. but just the same -- a lot of disparity in our conclusions.

I will look at cash..

Do you have a daily ES chart .. so I can compare?

I might have a feed problem
Click to expand...

Yes.. my cash chart concurs with yours
 
MartinC-J said:
DJ - Thanks for that info from your city friend. Let's hope it settles down soon.

Jon - You're right. I tend to see the move in the ES first and then expect the FTSE to fall in line eventually. But I trade the FTSE mostly and rarely the ES, and I look for the correct price action and signal bars for timing my entries on the FTSE. I look to the ES/FESX just for confirmation of my FTSE position and if they don't give that confirmation I tend to stay out.

As for today, this is looking like a typical wednesday which tend to be range days. So far that range has been 27 pts wide, and for confirmation of this ranging it probably needs to retest 5632.
Click to expand...

Sorry for the silly question, what is the ES and FESX you guys are talking about? SPX etf?
 
Jacky - The ES is the S&P500 futures contract. The FESX is the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract. You can trade them with a spreadbetting firm but the spreads aren't as good as the cash prices for the FTSE and the S&P. I trade the futures with a direct access platform. I don't use a spreadbetter for my trades.

Feel free to ask as many "silly" questions as you want. That's the only way to learn sometimes. Good luck.
 
DaddyJohn said:
I was looking at ES.. but just the same -- a lot of disparity in our conclusions.

I will look at cash..

Do you have a daily ES chart .. so I can compare?

I might have a feed problem
Click to expand...

don't have es chart you'll notice it's only since january so something does look a bit odd.
 
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