Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

scalps
270748
 
luckyvictor said:
Why it doesn't drop hard today?
Click to expand...
The mini-trade deal, as uneventful as it was, is all but dead, the probability of ever reaching agreement on the core issue of IP protection and free access to Chinese markets is practically zero. China has shown its cards... they want tariff relief but are unwilling to give anything away to get them, and Nancy has magnified the unwillingness of China to compromise 10 fold. Markets did dip on the realization that an escalation is more probable than a resolution, but then they recovered.

I've been saying since the trade war started... The US does not need China, it needs to stop China's explosive growth "paid for" by the US, if this means no trade with China then that's fine, the US might grow a little slower if it hasn't unconditional access to China's middle class but it will grow none the less. All the hype on a tweet that a "deal is close" is media BS that plays the retail investor like a yo-yo... IN on good tweets, OUT on bad reports... it's all BS... the US economy is fine with or without a deal, it will not be fine if China steals the IP then undercuts US prices.

I would not be surprised if every "made in China" router or other communication hardware has a spy chip in it, if Trump wants China to buckle, it should outlaw all Chinese communication equipment, this will get the attention of China vastly more than tariffs will. Trump needs to be smart, not a bully, blanket tariffs are too of a blunt an instrument to surgicaly have the desired effect... China can counter them by dumping and manipulating the currency. I think the Cinese party is hoping for a 2nd Trump term as the Chinese see him as a not so astute, loud paper tiger causing more damage to himself then to them.

If other factors bring US markets down below 26,700ish (DOW), they might keep going as a correction is due, however, it won't be trade causing a correction.
 
Last edited:
medallion way said:
The mini-trade deal, as uneventful as it was, is all but dead, the probability of ever reaching agreement on the core issue of IP protection and free access to Chinese markets is practically zero. China has shown its cards... they want tariff relief but are unwilling to give anything away to get them, and Nancy has magnified the unwillingness of China to compromise 10 fold. Markets did dip on the realization that an escalation is more probable than a resolution, but then they recovered.

I've been saying since the trade war started... The US does not need China, it needs to stop China's explosive growth "paid for" by the US, if this means no trade with China then that's fine, the US might grow a little slower if it hasn't unconditional access to China's middle class but it will grow none the less. All the hype on a tweet that a "deal is close" is media BS that plays the retail investor like a yo-yo... IN on good tweets, OUT on bad reports... it's all BS... the US economy is fine with or without a deal, it will not be fine if China steals the IP then undercuts US prices.

I would not be surprised if every "made in China" router or other communication hardware has a spy chip in it, if Trump wants China to buckle, it should outlaw all Chinese communication equipment, this will get the attention of China vastly more than tariffs will. Trump needs to be smart, not a bully, blanket tariffs are too of a blunt an instrument to surgicaly have the desired effect... China can counter them by dumping and manipulating the currency. I think the Cinese party is hoping for a 2nd Trump term as the Chinese see him as a not so astute, loud paper tiger causing more damage to himself then to them.

If other factors bring US markets down below 26,700ish (DOW), they might keep going as a correction is due, however, it won't be trade causing a correction.
Click to expand...
I think everyone do hope or expect a correction to happen, simply too high to buy according to technical, or Marco data is not really supportive in the fundamentals.

But FED seems to be doing a lot to stop the market correct itself, at least not a major pull back like last year, this is provided by the fact that they lower the interest way, and quietly letting more loan out to bank.

So the battle between bull and bear is still strong in the next few months, and seems like both sides do have strong reason to fight.

One thing I can not quantify is, if the trade deal goes well, tariff removed or roll back, how much does it help on raising the index?
 
luckyvictor said:
One thing I can not quantify is, if the trade deal goes well, tariff removed or roll back, how much does it help on raising the index?
Click to expand...
Earnings need to rise 14% ro justify current market levels. Market players seem to think a trade resolution will do that so forward thinking has pushed prices up. My view is that only a full trade deal that includes IP and open China to US companies has a chance to grow erning 14%, the phase 1 deal won't cut it.
 
medallion way said:
Earnings need to rise 14% ro justify current market levels. Market players seem to think a trade resolution will do that so forward thinking has pushed prices up. My view is that only a full trade deal that includes IP and open China to US companies has a chance to grow erning 14%, the phase 1 deal won't cut it.
Click to expand...

US Market seems to be overpriced very often, price never drop back to value.

Not sure about FTSE though
 
medallion way said:
The mini-trade deal, as uneventful as it was, is all but dead, the probability of ever reaching agreement on the core issue of IP protection and free access to Chinese markets is practically zero. China has shown its cards... they want tariff relief but are unwilling to give anything away to get them, and Nancy has magnified the unwillingness of China to compromise 10 fold. Markets did dip on the realization that an escalation is more probable than a resolution, but then they recovered.

I've been saying since the trade war started... The US does not need China, it needs to stop China's explosive growth "paid for" by the US, if this means no trade with China then that's fine, the US might grow a little slower if it hasn't unconditional access to China's middle class but it will grow none the less. All the hype on a tweet that a "deal is close" is media BS that plays the retail investor like a yo-yo... IN on good tweets, OUT on bad reports... it's all BS... the US economy is fine with or without a deal, it will not be fine if China steals the IP then undercuts US prices.

I would not be surprised if every "made in China" router or other communication hardware has a spy chip in it, if Trump wants China to buckle, it should outlaw all Chinese communication equipment, this will get the attention of China vastly more than tariffs will. Trump needs to be smart, not a bully, blanket tariffs are too of a blunt an instrument to surgicaly have the desired effect... China can counter them by dumping and manipulating the currency. I think the Cinese party is hoping for a 2nd Trump term as the Chinese see him as a not so astute, loud paper tiger causing more damage to himself then to them.

If other factors bring US markets down below 26,700ish (DOW), they might keep going as a correction is due, however, it won't be trade causing a correction.
Click to expand...
i :love: your commentary. 👈
 
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