Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

[DaddyJohn]

ES has a problem though ... in terms of market profile.. it now has a gap between 1278 and 1282... what I mean by a gap is that everyday you can look at where 70% of the volume actually traded (I use USA cash hours to calculate this) I then get a high and a low.. these "value areas" usually overlap , or stack on top of each other. Occassionally you get a gap in these value areas.. which is a very bullish sign.. but the market will usually come down to print more volume as these levels to complete the auction process i.e the prices are properly tested.. you usually see these areas as consolidations on your charts.

 

[reksa]

i know the volume on the cash weekly seemed to be a bit odd but if it was correct you still think it was average?

Just went back to look at your charts. That was on the S&P and yes it looks like volume way above average.

But the EOD data I have for the S&P shows no real increase in volume. The EOD data I posted was from FT. I will log on Standard & Poors and check it.

With regards to the FTSE it was only slightly larger volume than Tuesday.

 

[barjon]

Nice trade Barjon. Do you sometimes use the method before a data release where it would not be possible to use a stop due to slippage?

As the US data really helped you out yesterday with the DOW tanking.

reksa

not specifically, no. Data releases often have an impact, of course, and usually I'm on hand to. The impact is uncertain though, sometimes the dow tanks and ftse tanks more and sometimes less as yesterday.

It may be that ftse's morning weakness in following the dow up was due to nervousness about the data so, when dow tanked, ftse had already anticipated it. Had the data sent the dow up, then it's likely that ftse would have played catch up. In either case ftse would have traded strong versus the dow whether the direction was down or up.

 

[Dick Lexic]

ES has a problem though ... in terms of market profile.. it now has a gap between 1278 and 1282... what I mean by a gap is that everyday you can look at where 70% of the volume actually traded (I use USA cash hours to calculate this) I then get a high and a low.. these "value areas" usually overlap , or stack on top of each other. Occassionally you get a gap in these value areas.. which is a very bullish sign.. but the market will usually come down to print more volume as these levels to complete the auction process i.e the prices are properly tested.. you usually see these areas as consolidations on your charts.

all to complicated for me dj i like to keep it simple ..

 

[Dick Lexic]

looks like we are testing mondays high

ditto

 

[Dick Lexic]

i got targets up to 5750 cash but i'm cautious with that volume
1 it was selling
2 it's what wee need for the big push through
3 it was my aunty mary selling her tsb shares
hmmm

think aunty mary has the edge so far

 

[reksa]

The auction results were out way before Ransquawk got a hold of them.
About 3 min delay.

 

[MartinC-J]

I want to post up a chart for people who trade off the 1 min chart. I want to point out what I call are pushbacks. These are where the price tries to reverse and is slapped down with speed and a bit of volume. Now these pushbacks are sometimes people taking profits, and if that is the case the spike will get filled again. But if it fails to fill and then breaks the other way, the odds are that the reversal is a fake, and the trend is not over.

In the chart attached we have what looks like a reversal from down to up that bounces of a support level and makes what looks like a move back up to test the highs. In real time the move to 5658 was very quick. It barely touched 58.0 before it was pushed back down. The pushback at point E was sudden and on a bit of volume. This spike failed to refill. The move down at 9:00am was on volume, and it was clear that this down move had a lot more to go.

 

[Dick Lexic]

friday the 13th today

 

[reksa]

I want to post up a chart for people who trade off the 1 min chart. I want to point out what I call are pushbacks. These are where the price tries to reverse and is slapped down with speed and a bit of volume. Now these pushbacks are sometimes people taking profits, and if that is the case the spike will get filled again. But if it fails to fill and then breaks the other way, the odds are that the reversal is a fake, and the trend is not over.

In the chart attached we have what looks like a reversal from down to up that bounces of a support level and makes what looks like a move back up to test the highs. In real time the move to 5658 was very quick. It barely touched 58.0 before it was pushed back down. The pushback was sudden and on a bit of volume. This spike failed to refill. The move down at 9:00am was on volume, and it was clear that this down move had a lot more to go.

Nicely put. We also had a descending trend line that was retested on the back of these soft auction results.

Do you sit on your hands when we get those 10-15 point ranges like today and for even longer yesterday morning?.

I was wondering if you take on the breaks of the ubb and lbb on the 1 min with tight stops? I find it hard to see other entries just watching the candles.

 

[DaddyJohn]

all to complicated for me dj i like to keep it simple ..

It's not complicated Dick.. just another way of looking at gaps that you wouldnt see on normal charts.... it is an excellent way to recognise potential turning points, target zones and also markets tend to range when they get back into these gaps, which is very useful to know

 

[MartinC-J]

So much for the eurobabble again. Mark you were right the news hit the market 3 minutes before Ransquawk reported it. The italian bond auction was a relative success with the yeilds not great but definitely dropping from what they were. This was a continuation on from yesterdays auction where the yields were dropping too. What's odd is the response by the indices. They dropped like a stone. Maybe they were looking for an excuse to drop, but fundementally it didn't make sense.

 

[DaddyJohn]

I want to post up a chart for people who trade off the 1 min chart. I want to point out what I call are pushbacks. These are where the price tries to reverse and is slapped down with speed and a bit of volume. Now these pushbacks are sometimes people taking profits, and if that is the case the spike will get filled again. But if it fails to fill and then breaks the other way, the odds are that the reversal is a fake, and the trend is not over.

In the chart attached we have what looks like a reversal from down to up that bounces of a support level and makes what looks like a move back up to test the highs. In real time the move to 5658 was very quick. It barely touched 58.0 before it was pushed back down. The pushback at point E was sudden and on a bit of volume. This spike failed to refill. The move down at 9:00am was on volume, and it was clear that this down move had a lot more to go.

Good points Martin.... this is what I looked at 1) failed break of high 2) retracement was identical to previous swing 3) hit key 61.8 fib

I was short from the failed high..and out close to the low.. saw the retracement to the 61.8 fib.. recognised the swinf was identical in size to previous .. hence we have symmetery ... went short again ...;. out at the end of the long candle.

Done for the day

 

[DaddyJohn]

here's the next one about to set up --- tight stop cause you will know quickly if you are wrong

 

[DaddyJohn]

We could of course look for this swing to fail....

 

[MartinC-J]

Nicely put. We also had a descending trend line that was retested on the back of these soft auction results.

Do you sit on your hands when we get those 10-15 point ranges like today and for even longer yesterday morning?.

I was wondering if you take on the breaks of the ubb and lbb on the 1 min with tight stops? I find it hard to see other entries just watching the candles.

Mark, the descending line test was a 61.8% retracement on the 5 min chart (high 5668.5, low 5629.0). After that the market didn't have an obvious target. The Italian bond auction results, I thought were ok, so I was surprised to see the big drop. I stayed out of that drop, and sat on my hands for the next 30 mins. It was tempting to get in on the break below 5629, but to me I needed to see a more steady pattern and not one that looked like a knee jerk as a result of the bond auction.

I wasn't interested in taking on the breaks of the the UBB and LBB on the 1 min chart, as it just wasn't an orderly market. I don't normally take breaks of the UBB or LBB for entries these days, although occasionally I do. I prefer to wait for a pullback to the 10 Ema or 20 Ema or MBB on the 1 min chart then enter on a stop order in the direction of the trend.

I hate buying tops or bottoms now, and have to have a good reason to do so.

I quite like trendline breaks and took a small nibble of the break above 34.5 at 11:05am, but closed soon after at 5638 when it looked to have no conviction.

Thanks to our swing trading friends, I pay a lot more attention to the 1 hour chart than I used to, and I also focus on the fib retracements and extensions on the 1 hour too. I also look to see where the next 1 hour candle starts and if it is likely to break the range of the prior 1 hour candle.

 

[Dick Lexic]

fib/monday high ......still can't make my mind up on that volume...one small scalp from that high might just leave it for a while

 

[Dick Lexic]

fib/monday high ......still can't make my mind up on that volume...one small scalp from that high might just leave it for a while

....scalp was from monday high 5674 cash

 

[MartinC-J]

Good points Martin.... this is what I looked at 1) failed break of high 2) retracement was identical to previous swing 3) hit key 61.8 fib

I was short from the failed high..and out close to the low.. saw the retracement to the 61.8 fib.. recognised the swinf was identical in size to previous .. hence we have symmetery ... went short again ...;. out at the end of the long candle.

Done for the day

Nice trading J. What made you enter the short at the high at the open? I went short at 8:03am on the break below 56, but my target didn't get hit and I ended up scratching for -3.5 pts at 8:05am. I then treated it as a wicks and tails market and sat it out until the ascending triangle became clear, and then I just waited for the break of that triangle.

I didn't take the short at the 61.8% retracement, although in hindsight it is clear I should have. I didn't know what was going to happen when the imminent italian auction results were released, so I was staying out until after they were released.

 

[MartinC-J]

here's the next one about to set up --- tight stop cause you will know quickly if you are wrong

Where's your entry? At the line or after it touches and starts a new 5 min candle and breaks lower by 1 tick? As far as I can tell it didn't make it to the line, so maybe there wouldn't have been an obvious entry.