Another one

NVP

Legendary member
37,283 1,936
Hey there ....

I really appreciate your honesty and your candour posting here

But if I were mentoring you I wouldn’t be letting you near live accounts at the moment

According to these posts you are displaying far too many potential flaws in your processes, system and execution ....in other words you are not tight enough to Be live trading and therefore will,lose all your money over time

Please go to demo whilst you tighten up and improve your processes ...I’m just trying to save you some money and pain

Good,luck

N
 

Otig

Member
62 3
Hi NVP,

Thank you for your advice I'm pretty sure you are doing it with good intention but after live account there is no way I will come back to papers, it's just wasting of time because even though I don't have a good system yet, in most cases my emotions and self control is the reason I lose money. With paper trading you can't train it because you don't care about the position you have.

What I need to do is just to size down and practice cut loss.
 

Otig

Member
62 3
Now about my trading day. First of all I was joking about counter for wrong orders, but it's really a problem now and I I'm going to put the counter on each of my post from now, I hope it will help me to keep it in mind every time before a trade remind myself that CALLs are to the LEFT and PUTs are to the RIGHT! It's funny, but I really mess up with it a lot.

Today was super day, I say it rarely, in fact I don't even remember when I've said something like that but there is a reason. First of all after yesterday's post I really closed everything, opened OnDemand feature and was trying to read the tape on 2-3 different breakouts.
Also, I have finally made a decision to look only at one stock during the whole day! I've heard a lot of times that it's a good idea to watch 1-3 stock but was ignoring it until I understood it by myself. I decided it will be SPY, I know people who make thousands of dollars trading it plus it's pretty predictable index I would say. I analyzed its behavior yesterday, I see that during the day it always has pretty high HOD and low LOD, there is a big range between them which is a good opportunity to trade.

So I've watched 3 different time frames today of SPY (never done it before, and it really shows a good picture), the only indicators I used is VWAP and volume. Now is the key part, the whole trading session I was looking TAPE! 80% of tape reading and only 20% of checking the chart on different time frames and compare it to different levels + VWAP. I didn't expect that tape shows so much information! Of course it's too early to say that I'm master on it, I need to be right at least 100 times for saying that I know Tape now, but believe me or not I've predicted about 5 big moves today, but could trade only 3-4 because have not enough money.

I've made about 20% profits on ToS and would make 10%+ on Tasty if wouldn't be an idiot and bought CALLS on breakdown that I was waiting for!!! I literally buy CALLs when I want to but PUTs only because I'm not focused on the column of contracts. So right at the breakdown I bought CALLs of course I've lost money but at least I've sold them right away, and I even had time to buy PUTs and still take some money back! So if I bought PUTs right at the beginning I would have good profit. But I'm still green today anyway so can't complain.

Believe me or not I don't even care about money that much, I'm just glad that I was able to understand the chart today and its participants. When I had 6+ different charts on my screen I really didn't understand anything because I was waiting just for breakouts, but when you analyse only one chart the whole day, you remember all the difficult areas, where bulls and bears are fighting, you see a critical zone that will be difficult to break and etc...

Oh yeah, and volume! it was clear today when after long drop down SPY became consolidating, even going up but volume was decreasing so it was obvious SPY is going to go down again. I mean, today I felt like I trade, not gamble! I bought positions because of that and that and that. Not just because of a breakout and hoping that it will go up.

I even saw that TESLA huge breakup before it happened, it was too obvious for me only because I was looking for SPY the whole day, I knew that it's going to go up at that specific minute and TSLA was right at the critical level, so potential move up of SPY confirmed that TSLA is going to break resistance level.

But I will not rush now, I will keep watching 1-2 stocks and trade only something that will show me a strong signal. It's too early to say I understand the chart but at least I see something already, even if I'm mistaken it's still good because I can play around it.

It's too late already, I will post my trades tomorrow. Want to analyze it with details.
 

Otig

Member
62 3
There are several things I wanna mention:
1. I don't care about ToS account that much so I mostly gamble with it. Have to stop doing that, think about plays and %, not the amount of money it has.
2. When I trade Tasty account I'm too scary, it's something I will need to work on. I know during the time I'll get use to 3 figures profits\losses, but the path will be emotional.
3. I think about win too much and want to have $5000+ no matter what. Which means I'm not ready for loss, which means I can make a huge mistake when I will need to cut the loss. So the interesting part is, I understand my problem but still trade knowing that I didn't fix it.

Up 5.3%

ToS = $1204
Tasty = $4953

SPY ToS
SPY ToS 3.23.20.jpg
SPY Tasty
SPY Tasty 3.23.20.jpg
 

Otig

Member
62 3
Terrible trading today because the whole day was slow to me, I didn't know what to do except to take some quick small scalp. Made several mistakes but they weren't that huge. The biggest mistake though is, I was waiting for SPY reversal for 3 hours! I knew it's going to go down at least to re-test VWAP but also was expecting it to go to LOD. What you think happens, finally after 3 hours I see divergence, I see my move that breaks EMA, I try to make an order and wasn't filled for some reason. Decided it's too late, the market is too slow don't wanna risk, and eventually it was beginning of the HUGE reversal right until LOD. I hate myself because of this fear. One thing that kind of destroyed me mentally as well, I eventually bought PUTs on that move, but something out of my understanding happened to contract's price so I had to wait until SPY will go down for $1!!! until I will get the same price I bought those contracts, it just pissed me off. I was able to sell at critical level but I hate that even when I see such huge moves I'm impatient and too scary. I could make good profits today. Need to work on psychology.

Up 2.6%

ToS = $1278
Tasty = $5022

AAPL
AAPL 3.24.20.jpg
MSFT
MSFT 3.24.20.jpg
SPY
SPY 3.24.20.jpg

Btw, just remembered something that I couldn't understand, VIX and SPY were going up together, I have no idea how it's possible and what could it mean. AND! When SPY reversed, VIX went down right with it! I wonder is it the reason why the price of my contracts didn't increase that much?!


And yeah, wrong order counter : 0
 

Otig

Member
62 3
At one point didn't care about ToS account again, one day I'll complain that I'm an idiot and was using it without stop losses. Also I don't even know how many days in a raw I buy right at the reversal point and don't hold it even until 50% of the move. All of my reversal trades were right at the beginning, and could potentially go to another side of the day's range or even more... So I basically catch a trend reversal but never used it effectively, too scary hold it long. I should start keeping at least one contract and let it go( the funny thing is, I had one today, but sold it after 20 minutes, I can't even keep a cheap stock for some fantastic reason).

Up 6.3%

ToS =$1391
Tasty =$5291

BA
BA 3.25.20.jpg
AAPL
AAPL 3.25.20.jpg
SPY
SPY 3.25.20.jpg

Wrong order counter : 0
 

tomorton

Legendary member
7,725 1,098
Hi Otig - Its always good practice to review trades, and its always refreshing to hear from someone honest about their trading, but I'm getting the feeling this thread is more like an album of snapshots from some long and winding road trip. It seems the theme is simply to make as many trades as financially possible and learn something from every one of those that goes wrong.

Now I'm not saying this approach could not work, but is it the best way to get from A to B? Are you learning the things you need to know to improve your trading? And where is B, where is the plan, where is the road map to get there? Where are the milestones, they waypoints that confirm the right route?

Personally, I'm not interested to learn how many dollars you have from yesterday. But I'm very interested in what you plan today to do tomorrow........
 

Otig

Member
62 3
Hi tomorton, I don't know the best way to get from A to B and I don't know what I need to learn to improve my trading. That is why I'm here and having this journal because the purpose of it is trying everything until I will get it. If everybody knew everything at the beginning of their path there wouldn't be any point of keeping a journal.

I'm okay with criticism but I don't understand your point, you basically just said everything I do is wrong and you are not interested in my approach, so my question is if you are not interested why would you open it? I would never waste my time for something I'm not interested in. Or if you are here to help me, please provide me your thoughts on how you think is better to keep developing.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
7,725 1,098
Hi tomorton, I don't know the best way to get from A to B and I don't know what I need to learn to improve my trading. That is why I'm here and having this journal because the purpose of it is trying everything until I will get it. If everybody knew everything at the beginning of their path there wouldn't be any point of keeping a journal.

I'm okay with criticism but I don't understand your point, you basically just said everything I do is wrong and you are not interested in my approach, so my question is if you are not interested why would you open it? I would never waste my time for something I'm not interested in. Or if you are here to help me, please provide me your thoughts on how you think is better to keep developing.

My point is not that your trading approach is wrong, my point is I can't see a consistent strategy. This could be my fault, you could have posted up your strategy outline and "rules" etc. but I just didn't find them yet.

But most experienced traders will be able to see from the plan whether the plan will work. Ironically its hard to judge whether a plan is working from individual trade history charts and profit&loss statements.

I have to accept of course that the objective in this game is to make profits, and its therefore easy to argue that whatever brings you profits is right and whatever brings you losses is wrong. I don't hold to that narrow view as I look for a trading methodology to be long-term, scaleable and consistent, without excessive risk of either regular draw-down or infrequent catastrophe event.

To use an NFL analogy, some traders will say their objective is to catch the bull and run and not drop it - the trading situation would be look at a bunch of charts, spot an opportunity and buy/see immediately. That's fine but its not a game plan.

I'm actually hoping for more discussion on the thread of plans and less of results.
 

Otig

Member
62 3
You are right I don't have consistent strategy, I basically trade at least two of them: breakouts\breakdowns and reversals. But that is why I'm here, since I got to post my trades I'm obligated every evening open a chart, find my trades and try to analyze it at least as much as I can at this level. So this screenshots are nothing for you but they provoke me learning, if I didn't have a journal I wouldn't open my trades that often. Also the journal is just a discipline that I'm training, believe me or not I don't care who reads me or judges me, I do it for myself and do the best way I can, with the knowledge I have at the moment.

Now, you came and pointed out that there is another approach that I can pay attention to, and it triggers me to think whether you are right or not, where are my mistakes and how I can improve it. I do agree with you that I should have a solid strategy with a plan that I will look for during the trading session, so I can implement it and analyze after that. The more I will practice it, the better results I will have.

But you got to understand that I've been trading for 4-5 months, I can't use your jargon and language yet, I also can't be very specific with my plans due to my inexperience. I can't say " Alright since the stock just retested that supply area and didn't have volume, but also Trump spoke and there is bull flag but it looks weak because right under VWAP that is slowly going down which means I will probably follow bears but if...." This is the silliest example I could make. I have no knowledge to analyze a chart as deep as you probably can, I don't know your experience.

The only plan I have is finding my setup and work on my emotions. I know it's not detailed as you would expect but I can't do it better now.

What I've been doing this week is trading almost only SPY, watch the index the whole day and try to understand its behavior. My main indicators are Tape, VWAP and volume. I know a lot of traders who use only this indicators on their charts, nothing else, and make tons of money, they somehow understand what's going on by critical levels, VWAP and volume.

What I do at the moment, I try to see how many times the index\stock tests VWAP during the day, how VWAP show us trend and helps to "predict" whether it will be broken or a stock will bounce of it and continue the trend. What areas are critical, if it didn't break that area does it mean the trend has changed or not... I can't be more specific man, I'm a baby in a new world that tries to catch any info and use it.

I also need to work on my cut loss, this is probably the only and biggest problem I have at the moment, but I know that without posting it here. I actually probably blew up my big account today which I believe will make you feel better ( and also the user above who advised me to paper trade because I don't have system and risk management, so now it's time for " I told you so"). And the reason was my inability to take losses, so I need to work on it as well... I can't just post all of the things I need to work on every day, because I have a huge list of them.

I'll think on how I can improve my approach but I'm not promising anything because I still don't have any specific examples that will help me to improve the journal.
 
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Otig

Member
62 3
Regarding today's trading. I will not post any numbers because my position is still opened, but msot probably I've again blow up at least 50-70% of my account, but this time it was a big account.

The interesting part is, I don't regret about my trades, I like the way I traded and I don't even remember when I could say such words, because I wasn't afraid to take actions, patiently waited pullbacks for a longer move and even aggressively size up my position when there was a good chance it will break my level. If the trade worked out, I would probably make my first 4 figure day, but it didn't break VWAP... What I simply needed to do, do not be stubborn and sell when had a chance, yes I would lose about 10% but if my strategy worked out I would make 30-80%. All these days I was right with the direction and bought right at the reversals, but wasn't patient to hold my positions that would give me huge profits. Once I've found courage to be more patient and aggressive, the market just showed me middle finger. There was no such a day at least during last 10 days where the index wouldn't break VWAP or at least re-test it making a huge move. Today was exception...

No worries, it won't break me, it's only beginning of my path.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
7,725 1,098
Hi Otig - Good posts, thanks. You've again shown your commitment to being honest and open about your trading.

You know what? We've all blown accounts. Its not the worst thing in the world to make the mistakes that cause that to happen, its only wrong to keep making them. So the habit of reviewing closed trades and assessing what worked and what didn't is so very healthy, essential for long-term consistent success. Of course, a carefully defined strategy informed by this process eliminates much of the need for review work and development work anyway.

VWAP looks a useful tool, especially in the stock and index trading arenas. I don't find I need to use it (I don't trade stocks anyway, mostly forex these days) but heard of it via the excellent Youtube videos by Brian Shannon at alphatrends. Worth pressing on to expert level with this.

Managing capital risk from losing trades is vital. Well managed risk can turn a serious loser into break-even. It can sometimes even trump the accuracy and timing of the entry decision.

Right now I'd also say don't just review the losers, spend as much time on the winners - there should be more of them and they should have a bigger impact on your account. Think of this - if you rack up 80 winners and 20 losers, and then you work really hard to produce a 10% improvement in just one category, if you focus on the losers you end up with a 82:18 win record: if you focus on the winners you end up with an 88:12 win record. That's simplistic I know but it often pays in many areas of business to put more resources where you're strongest.

All the best.
 
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