An experiment

[SSINGH]

I was thinking about performing an experiment.....

Ten trades per day......First trade at 8am, 2nd at 9am, 3rd @ 10am....an so on...with the last trade being at 5pm.....

A fixed 30 point stop loss on every trade...fixed stake size, and fixed target......

Over a period of 2 weeks....would I be in profit or loss.....

Trade direction to be chosen by tossing a coin.....Heads we I go Long, hence tails we go Short.....no use of Charts or and Technical analysis.....just plain blind action....

Which instrument would be ideal for these parameters????

would this system make money over time.....???

 

[MrGecko]

I don't think there's anything in it, adjusted for risk.

The reason I say that is you may well be able to simulate this strategy using quantitave finance (if you could do the fandangoes). If it was that easy, clever bods would have realised and irradicated the profit themselves. While it lasted.

 

[MrGecko]

Ok, Ok

Thunderbolt and lightning - very very frightening me-
Galileo,galileo,
Galileo galileo
Galileo figaro-magnifico-
But Im just a poor boy and nobody loves me-
Hes just a poor boy from a poor family-
Spare him his life from this monstrosity-...

 

[TheBramble]

Ten trades per day......First trade at 8am, 2nd at 9am, 3rd @ 10am....an so on...with the last trade being at 5pm.....

If your stop or target from he previous trade(s) had not been hit you would potentially be adding to your position or reducing it (or going flat of course).

A fixed 30 point stop loss on every trade...fixed stake size, and fixed target......

Might be interesting to have an idea what your target would be before setting off on this one. Why do you have a clear idea for stop but not for target?

Over a period of 2 weeks....would I be in profit or loss.....

It’s an experiment. Find out. But 2 weeks will tell you little.

Trade direction to be chosen by tossing a coin.....Heads we I go Long, hence tails we go Short.....no use of Charts or and Technical analysis.....just plain blind action....

That strategy is already in use by many on this site – except they pretend to use charts and indicators etc.

Which instrument would be ideal for these parameters????

Well, you haven’t defined all your parameters and it really makes no difference what you choose.

would this system make money over time.....???

Again, it’s your experiment. Find out.

As a rough guide, with stop and target about the same size you’ll lose over time. Target greater than stop will slightly increase your chance of success. The size of stop (and target) will impact the profile significantly. Smaller values will result in shorter duration, individual trades. As the values become larger, you will find an interesting variation on average position size. LOL.

 

[new_trader]

I was thinking about performing an experiment.....

Ten trades per day......First trade at 8am, 2nd at 9am, 3rd @ 10am....an so on...with the last trade being at 5pm.....

A fixed 30 point stop loss on every trade...fixed stake size, and fixed target......

Over a period of 2 weeks....would I be in profit or loss.....

Trade direction to be chosen by tossing a coin.....Heads we I go Long, hence tails we go Short.....no use of Charts or and Technical analysis.....just plain blind action....

Which instrument would be ideal for these parameters????

would this system make money over time.....???

This is crazy system!

HEADS = Short & TAILS = Long

 

[Hotch]

The rumours were true!

Guys want to be me and girls want to be with me!

 

[SSINGH]

If your stop or target from he previous trade(s) had not been hit you would potentially be adding to your position or reducing it (or going flat of course).

Might be interesting to have an idea what your target would be before setting off on this one. Why do you have a clear idea for stop but not for target?

It’s an experiment. Find out. But 2 weeks will tell you little.

That strategy is already in use by many on this site – except they pretend to use charts and indicators etc.

Well, you haven’t defined all your parameters and it really makes no difference what you choose.

Again, it’s your experiment. Find out.

As a rough guide, with stop and target about the same size you’ll lose over time. Target greater than stop will slightly increase your chance of success. The size of stop (and target) will impact the profile significantly. Smaller values will result in shorter duration, individual trades. As the values become larger, you will find an interesting variation on average position size. LOL.

The Dow.
30 point stop.
75 point target.
Heads Long / Tails Short....

BTW...is anyone willing to confess to have ever traded like this??? or tried a similar experiment?....

 

[mrsoul]

Can't make money flipping coins!
That's why it is extremely difficult to make consistent money trading.

 

[Hotch]

Can't make money flipping coins!
That's why it is extremely difficult to make consistent money trading.

...and our survey says

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/54694-how-not-make-money-trading-markets.html

 

[TheBramble]

The Dow.
30 point stop.
75 point target.
Heads Long / Tails Short....

BTW...is anyone willing to confess to have ever traded like this??? or tried a similar experiment?....

You will find it tough to get each trade in and off within one hour with these sizes of stop and target. Your call, but if you're effectively trading sub-1 hour then 15:30 might be a more reasonable starting point.

Someone may well suggest rather than spending the hours, days, weeks (and months) running this experiment, one gruelling hour after the next…you could program it into a Monte Carlo Generator.

You could, It would be fun. And easy. Three outcomes for every trade. Target hit, stop hit or neither and roll that position forward to increase/decrease your overall and running position size with the next trade. You could run a trade every hour or a variable subset of hours on the hour for each day. You could play with the target and stop sizes. All of this would be useful and yield a whole bunch of data which we could pretend are results.

But…

..it would not resemble in any way the results you will get running this (on a demo account of course) in reality.

It would be an interesting experiment in its own right to do both – the MCG and the Real Time runs.

 

[MrGecko]

Before you start... would you consider amending your strategy slightly? Say, move up to taking one trade per Day, with profit targets / stop loss levels to match?

It makes it a little easier for others in need of some intellectual masturbation.

 

[arabianights]

Choose a trending instrument, such as commodity futures.

You'll probably find it works.

 

[zupcon]

That strategy is already in use by many on this site – except they pretend to use charts and indicators etc.

oooohhhhh controversial as ever

 

[Hotch]

Choose a trending instrument, such as commodity futures.

You'll probably find it works.

Generally:

trending markets-larger targets
ranging markets-larger stops.

 

[N Rothschild]

someone did this in the us indicies section.well smin like this he went long or short depending on the last days close..ended down like -600 points in a week lol

 

[Hotch]

someone did this in the us indicies section.well smin like this he went long or short depending on the last days close..ended down like -600 points in a week lol

lol, obviously doesn't have my l33t skillz

 

[TheBramble]

It makes it a little easier for others in need of some intellectual masturbation.

What's up mate? You worried you haven't got any textbooks handy on this topic to copy out set questions and pretend it's your own work? LOL!

 

[Mr. Charts]

I was thinking about performing an experiment.....

Ten trades per day......First trade at 8am, 2nd at 9am, 3rd @ 10am....an so on...with the last trade being at 5pm.....

A fixed 30 point stop loss on every trade...fixed stake size, and fixed target......

Over a period of 2 weeks....would I be in profit or loss.....

Trade direction to be chosen by tossing a coin.....Heads we I go Long, hence tails we go Short.....no use of Charts or and Technical analysis.....just plain blind action....

Which instrument would be ideal for these parameters????

would this system make money over time.....???

You call that a system?
A Jimmy Connors moment.........

 

[Charlton]

Over a period of 2 weeks....would I be in profit or loss.....

Trade direction to be chosen by tossing a coin.....Heads we I go Long, hence tails we go Short.....no use of Charts or and Technical analysis.....just plain blind action....

Which instrument would be ideal for these parameters????

QUOTE]

 

[Mr. Charts]

...or perhaps you've heard about "real traders" being contrarians, so you back the horse which is running last in the field........