Active day and swing traders

[Euro_d]

Hi Silvia and Black mamba,
Well, HG was not kind to you but often the prices move rapidly after news and then settle, if the stop was hit then turn over a new leaf and carry on with the next. Hopefully the stop was built into your risk calculations.
As many of us have been posting these last days the markets in general are difficult lately. Again today (so far) I can see nothing to trade and I do not trade for the sake of it, no signals, no trades!

Good trading and dont get disheartened
Dave

 

[theblackmamba]

thats trading. at least there were no signs from the chart that it was coming.
fwiw ive learnt in these experiences its best not to close straight away. i try to wait half an hour then reeveluate. obv it cudve shot up more

 

[marben]

Hello again there,
If you trade with real shares...how can you get something similar? (I think I got it while I was writing this, may be hedging with an option? No idea how these things work though). Sorry for getting a little bit out of topic. If you know more about this, can you pm please? Thanks.

Good trading guys!

Silvia

Hi Silvia,

One of the most convenient instruments for hedging is the "covered warrant". These behave and are evaluated just like options but are issued by investment banks and can be traded just like shares through a stockbroker.

I've used them as an "insurance policy" for my invesment pofrtfolio. For a cost of a few % of the portfolio value a FTSE put warrant protects against a market crash. Must admit, right now I can't find any that are suitable for me at an acceptable price though. They exist for individual shares as well as indexes.

I can recommend Peter Temple's "The Investor's Toolbox" for an explanation of how such instruments work.

Regards,

Mark

 

[theblackmamba]

dave,
good point bout risk management. even though im really annoyed it hasnt really affected portfolio too much. i shorted at 315, closed half at 309, plus aslso have full short on dsgi, and half positions after closing half profitable on rr bp uu hns xta sab.

 

[marben]

Took 50% profits on MRW short @ 171.75. Opened @ 177.5 on 7/10.

 

[Nelz]

Morning Gents,

Just cam back from a Golf Trip and hoped for better news on my shares. Has anyone got any news on Billiton or SAB.

I have long positions with both..

Nelz

 

[Splitlink]

Hi Split,

As I mainly trade positionally, I'm talking about turns2-3 weeks ago, not the last few days! techst claimed that the US market turned bearish MONTHS ago - I just don't see the evidence for that claim. I would, however, be v interested if there were clear warning signs that we didn't spot and could have.


Mark

You are right about FT100. It had its high point at the beginning of the month. DJ tried to breach previous high in August, though. I'm not thinking of long for the time being (Monday! )

1043 S/O BSY at 530. Silly of me on a Friday and it is resisting a fall- may even go through SL
shortly.

Split

 

[techst]

Hey Marben

It all depends how you define 'bear market'. Being a short term trader I'm looking to get myself in with the overall market on a short term basis. Reviewing a long term chart and telling myself that we're still in a bull market since March 03 isn't gonna help my short term trades.

I break market moves down in Dow Theory. Short term, intermediate and long term. Long term define by a 200sma yes, were still in a bull market. short term define by a 20sma well, that's been broken. and the 50 SMA also broken. i just feel i'd be practising denile if I was looking at 3 year chart convincing myself the trend was still up, when the short and intermediate are both down. You can have the short term in a bull market with the intermediate in a bear market and the long term still in a bull market all at the same time.

Using the overall market in terms of higher highs and higher lows on a short term scene to confirm a bull move. And of course the opposite for bear market. Being a short term trader I dont want to be looking towards the long term to confirm which market we are in. Obviously i want to know where the overall market is in the short term not long.

 

[marben]

Hi techst,

Fair enough!

I'm aiming (but not succeeding yet ;-)) to trade on a timeframe of 2-4 weeks, so for me behaviour on a 3-6 month timeframe defines the "tide" (though I use longer timeframes as well to check stability of the "tide" and shorter ones to try to pick good entries/exits). Basically, I don't think we disagree on principles.

As you suggested at the outset, I always try to swim "with the tide". Occasionally, the tide can be different for different stocks in the same market.

At the moment, my tide may be turning but it's too early to say.

Thanks for your earlier tips on Appel's book. It's given me some good ideas for improving my earlier trading methods. I'm just studying the MACD chapter this afternoon & after some backtesting might try some swing trading too, using MACD as the primary indicator.

I guess swing trading might work best when the tide is uncertain & positional when it's clearer.

BTW was pleased to find the following from Appel: "..sometimes during strong market uptrends, the MACD will produce premature sell signals." That was exactly what I had thought after my problems back in August/September. But the main lesson, which Appel drums in, is not to rely too much on any one indicator/method.

Good trading!

Mark

 

[Splitlink]

BSY stopped out for 6 point loss. Anyone use closer stops than this? Spread is included.

Split

 

[Euro_d]

Hi Split, everyone has their own idea of stops and it is therefore very personal. As you have probably read, I set 3% opening stops but then moved them too quickly (less than 3%).
Others are more sophisticated and use permutations of last previous low (or high) or Fib retracements.

I think there is little debate on this subject and would welcome some guidance. For now, I will stick to my 3% to break even then slacken from there.

Dave,

PS it is raining like hell in Galicia so no golf and much trading, hopefully!

 

[PitBull]

Morning Guys

Just a few on my watchlist this week:

1. NXT - waiting for higher high higher low to short. Target 1150
2. LAND - possibel SHORT as broke support of 1400. Careful of fakeout
3. BP - LONG Bounce off of support 610
4. BG - LONG bounce off support 480

Regards
Pitbull

 

[marben]

'morning all,

Here's one for techst! Just went short CPI @ 377.5 (swing trade based on short term MACD price divergence). Also long GUS @ 854.5 on same basis.

Good trading,

Mark

 

[barjon]

mornin' all

long dge (from friday) and sab. Still no shorts on the horizon as yet but other potential longs are iii, cne,imt,ipr and sdr.

nervous market after healthy dow rise on friday - it's only oils holding it up at the moment.

euro

i've been experimenting this year after reckoning, like you, that i was leaving too much on the table. at the moment i have an initial stop set on technical rather than %age levels and i'm taking some profit early and moving stop to break even. i'm then lifting stop on reactions and if i'm triggered i'm looking more carefully at re-entry from a technical perspective.

the last bit has taken some discipline since i tended to dump them back in the watch list and forget them for a bit.

don't know if that helps at all

good trading

jon

 

[marben]

For completeness, opened long on ULVR @ 588. Positional trade, as resumption of uptrend indicated... we'll see [may have entered this a bit soon].

Current position: long GUS, ULVR; short MRW, CPI

 

[Splitlink]

B/O this morning at 1241 BARC at 543.6

Split

 

[Euro_d]

Morning all,
well after several days of almost zero trading it seems that the markets are giving some signals.

I remain long LMI bought @ 1294 and a stop @ 1300, seems to be recovering along with other miners.
Got SKS on the screener but the D4F prices are way off the level 2 order book so I am going to leave it alone, a case for CFD's? Strange as the Dec future is more aligned to the order book.

Also IAP but that is iffy. It rose yesterday but on poor volume and therefore I will want to see the intraday high from last friday, 350 ish taken out and then see if it can rise again to short term res at 378 ish. Another worry is that we seem to have a double top formed over the last week or so. One to keep an eye on.

What else? Well 1/2 hour into the session we are up on the FTSE about 10 and at the psychological resistance of 5300. If we break that then we should see a steady move up in all the heavies. Interestingly Camarilla pivots has H4 resistance @ 5300.
Care needed before jumping back in!

Jon, thanks for your thoughts on stops, I agree that technical stops are probably more reliable and will investigate, I used to use them when I traded end of day and now I am 100% on the screen seem to have forgotten my hard learned lessons.

Good trading to all,

Dave

 

[Euro_d]

Entered PRU short @ 490 stop now tightened to 495 from original 500 as price is currently 486.
As I write FTSE has dropped from the 5300 level (were it hovered most of the morning) to almost the days lows of 5265., major support is at 5260 DOW futures about 25 down, nothing obvious from the news wires but then I may have missed something. My LMI is holding more or less steady.
I am extremely cautious regarding any potential longs and as I am a bull at heart will probably miss short opportunities!

Dave.

 

[marben]

Hi Dave,

The main news sending the markets down is much worse than expected producer price inflation in the US (figures out today). This suggests no slackening of US interest rates and a probable slowdown in the US economy.

Regards,

Mark

 

[marben]

Not a good day for longs! Unhappy to leave 'em running overnight, with US in a bad way, so took loss on GUS @ 837.5 (opened yesterday @ 854.5) & on ULVR @ 581 (opened yesterday @ 588). What's the odds they gap up tomorrow morning?

Remaining position: short CPI & MRW.

Good trading,

Mark