A journal to keep track of how long I can keep up my 100% success rate

[timsk]

You are free to laugh all you want... I do smell fear

Think about what you're proposing here BFT. If you really were able to do as you claim, you'd be the most successful trader that ever lived and hedge funds and prop' shops the world over would be begging you to trade for them. They're not, obviously, because you've only been trading your current mythology (typo' intended) for a couple of weeks at $1.00 per point.

I've no idea what it is that you smell, but it sure as hell ain't fear, lol!
Tim.

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

Think about what you're proposing here BFT. If you really were able to do as you claim, you'd be the most successful trader that ever lived and hedge funds and prop' shops the world over would be begging you to trade for them. They're not, obviously, because you've only been trading your current mythology (typo' intended) for a couple of weeks at $1.00 per point.

I've no idea what it is that you smell, but it sure as hell ain't fear, lol!
Tim.

Right you are...but more importantly...when I achieve what I am setting out to do...notice I said WHEN not IF....and show that 100% success rate..you would have lost your life's savings...remember ??

 

[ZEN archer]

 

[timsk]

Right you are...but more importantly...when I achieve what I am setting out to do...notice I said WHEN not IF....and show that 100% success rate..you would have lost your life's savings...remember ??

And at what point will you decide that? 100 trades? 200 trades? 500 trades, 1,000 trades or 10,000 trades? Don't bother answering, because the question is a rhetorical one and is totally irrelevant. The question you need to answer is: what is your risk management strategy? On the face of it, you don't have one, because you don't use a stop loss or use any other alternative. If I'm wrong about that - please correct me and tell us what it is.

Unless and until you can answer the questions that are mounting up by the bucket load about what you do when a trade goes against you (and PLEASE don't insult our intelligence by pretending that that never happens), you've got an uphill mountain to climb to establish any credibility here on T2W. No one - other than the very naïve or very stupid - will take you at all seriously.
Tim.

 

[Hoggums]

Here we go again! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taleb_distribution

I think this picture sums up this thread...

 

[Forexmospherian]

There is definitely some form of correlation between the number of trades you undertake and a time scale.

Ie its really no good judging say 30 trades in a week - or similar going over say 220 days and a year with say no loss. I know of traders who have gone a year with genuinely no loss - with all their trades closed.

But during that 220 + trading days and a year in time - they have only taken 11 trades and then some of the closed trades had been 200 pips in a loss but they manage to close out in 26 pips of profit to count it as a win.

Therefore for me if you are a swing trader taking say 6 trades a month - I believe you would need at least 2 years and over 100 trades to claim your method as form and is profitable

If you are day trader taking say 25 trades a month - then you need over 500 trades to ensure you have not just hit on a time quarter than suits your method

If you are an out and out scalper with over 40+ trades a day - well that's got to be over 1000 trades to say your way of scalping is working . Just 100 or 300 trades over a week or so - is just not a true test of proper market conditions.

Therefore if BFT gets to say 500 trades with 490+ closed and wins with profits within a year - then I think he will have done extremely well - but to be honest by the time he gets to 500 trades whether in a quarter - six month or even a year i reckon over 50 will not be closed and running in losses.

That's why I hope this thread keep going and BFT keep supplying us with both his closed trade results as well as the number of trades he still has open

Regards

F

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

First trade of the day...first trade of the week

I trade...I book...I post

 

[tar]

First trade of the day...first trade of the week

I trade...I book...I post

"After the event" , so you will just post after you close your trade .

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

"After the event" , so you will just post after you close your trade .

Yes....is there something wrong with doing that ?

 

[tar]

There is definitely some form of correlation between the number of trades you undertake and a time scale.

Ie its really no good judging say 30 trades in a week - or similar going over say 220 days and a year with say no loss. I know of traders who have gone a year with genuinely no loss - with all their trades closed.

But during that 220 + trading days and a year in time - they have only taken 11 trades and then some of the closed trades had been 200 pips in a loss but they manage to close out in 26 pips of profit to count it as a win.

Therefore for me if you are a swing trader taking say 6 trades a month - I believe you would need at least 2 years and over 100 trades to claim your method as form and is profitable

If you are day trader taking say 25 trades a month - then you need over 500 trades to ensure you have not just hit on a time quarter than suits your method

If you are an out and out scalper with over 40+ trades a day - well that's got to be over 1000 trades to say your way of scalping is working . Just 100 or 300 trades over a week or so - is just not a true test of proper market conditions.

Therefore if BFT gets to say 500 trades with 490+ closed and wins with profits within a year - then I think he will have done extremely well - but to be honest by the time he gets to 500 trades whether in a quarter - six month or even a year i reckon over 50 will not be closed and running in losses.

That's why I hope this thread keep going and BFT keep supplying us with both his closed trade results as well as the number of trades he still has open

Regards

F

Number of trades alone isnt enough to judge a strategy or a trader , yes you need a big sample of trades but also you need a long periods of testing , years , even for scalping , you need years , because market conditions changes , bid/ask spread changes , slippage changes , volatility , frequency of sudden news ... etc , all of which will effect scalping strategies , so even if you made 1 million scalps in a week or a month that wont be enough to judge the strategy or the trader .

 

[tar]

Yes....is there something wrong with doing that ?

Yes , it will make more sense if you post when you open a trade and when you close .

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

Yes , it will make more sense if you post when you open a trade and when you close .

ok..you do that and I do it the way I want to

 

[tar]

ok..you do that and I do it the way I want to

Posting your trades after you close them will make this whole experiment useless .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_picking_(fallacy)

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

Posting your trades after you close them will make this whole experiment useless .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_picking_(fallacy)

That is ok. I am not doing an experiment so it makes no difference at all

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

I trade...I book...I post

 

[tar]

That is ok. I am not doing an experiment so it makes no difference at all

So maybe you open a trade and you don't post it and then it goes against you 2000 pips ! Whats the point then ?

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

So maybe you open a trade and you don't post it and then it goes against you 2000 pips ! Whats the point then ?

If it goes against me 2000 points then it goes against me 2000 points...then the point would be I did not get my 100% win rate. It is quite simple actually and I don't see why you are getting all agitated over it.

 

[tar]

If it goes against me 2000 points then it goes against me 2000 points...then the point would be I did not get my 100% win rate. It is quite simple actually and I don't see why you are getting all agitated over it.

But we wont know about that trade because you dont post when you open a trade you just do when you close one .

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

But we wont know about that trade because you dont post when you open a trade you just do when you close one .

So you won't know about the trade...So??

It is the EXIT of the trade that determines if it is a winner or a loser so the entry is not at all important. The EXIT is all that matters...when you exit you determine a winner or a loser...if you hold on to a loser and gets forced into an exit...that loser will show up.

 

[tar]

So you won't know about the trade...So??

It is the EXIT of the trade that determines if it is a winner or a loser so the entry is not at all important. The EXIT is all that matters...when you exit you determine a winner or a loser...if you hold on to a loser and gets forced into an exit...that loser will show up.

Your question was how long can i keep my 100% win rate , the answer is : forever .

rofl