95% lose

ffsear

Senior member
2,204 467
Just wondering who/when/how was this study done? Or is it an estimate?

I find it hard to understand how a such a figure can be accurate across a trillion dollar daily market where deals are conducted anomalously across and electronic network.


Thought?
 

ffsear

Senior member
2,204 467
Great chat!
 

tar

Legendary member
10,443 1,313
I think it is an estimate , it means 95% eventually will lose during their trading career , but if you take a look at the US retail fx Q report the success rate is much higher than 5% but it is meaningless as it is based on Q/Q calculations .
 

Mr Woozel

Well-known member
365 8
Just wondering who/when/how was this study done? Or is it an estimate?

I find it hard to understand how a such a figure can be accurate across a trillion dollar daily market where deals are conducted anomalously across and electronic network.


Thought?

Maybe it is just in relation to retail traders and the figures come from the retail brokers. Would be interested in finding out if it is true and how it is calculated. (over what time frames etc). There was/is a similar thing in online poker (thinkit was 10% are winners over the long term) and guess they get the figures from the various poker sites.
 

BeginnerJoe

Senior member
3,329 350
Rather than randomly guessing, if people can prove quite easily they are in the 5% then we can safely disregard 95%. I have seen no such proof, so my person estimate remains at 99.5% loose, and I am being quit optimistic.
 

the hare

Senior member
2,949 1,283
Just wondering who/when/how was this study done? Or is it an estimate?

If you look at it from a probability perspective, assuming players in a negative sum game, the figure is too low, but over a long enough period of a couple of years, that figure is in the right ballpark

There's been a few broker studies published that support the 95% argument

If you extrapolate the quarterly reports provided by the NFA they are pretty much what you'd expect from punters playing a negative sum game

A certain t2w member is currently analyzing around 8000 accounts provided by a forex broker, as part of the research for his PhD, IIRC his initial research shows that only around 0.04% of traders are able to string together 4 consecutive profitable months. Absolutely what you'd expect.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...success-rates-some-real-data.html#post2049720
 
 
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