80% success rate

Oct 31, 2004
78
4
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BOP
#1
hello folks,

Jilly B was posting her journal and was very succesfull with a success rate of about 80% of her trades and money to count at the end of it.
After all I suppose it is possible to have a success rate of 80% and still lose money.

Does any-one know of 80% success raters which are profitable and freely available for me to
have a look at?

thanks people
 

rols

Well-known member
Sep 10, 2004
1,621
335
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#2
vetten said:
hello folks,

Jilly B was posting her journal and was very succesfull with a success rate of about 80% of her trades and money to count at the end of it.
After all I suppose it is possible to have a success rate of 80% and still lose money.

Does any-one know of 80% success raters which are profitable and freely available for me to
have a look at?

thanks people
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=moon+on+a+stick
 
Oct 31, 2004
78
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18
BOP
#4
wow, you guys rols and wasp are sooooooooooo funny!

because you guys are so open minded, I`ll give yous an example of what I mean.
check it out if you two want to go anywhere........

go to forex factory to a thread called "4 hour strategy" 300+ pips per month and tell
me what you think
 
Aug 11, 2003
5,107
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#5
300 pips a month is that it? That's easy....

Why not get some charts and look at them... I could post you a couple of FX ones that offer 2 or 3 trades a year no problem. Would take half hour of analysis and they would be blatant in real time too.

Its much more of a challenge to make 20 trades a month and still come out okay.
 
Oct 31, 2004
78
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18
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#6
wasp said:
300 pips a month is that it? That's easy....

didn`t I say 300 +++++++++++++++++++++
and if that can be achieved with small trades and with a consistent system, well that`s
a good start aint it.
yep always so good to look down on those trials and it makes you feel so much better aye.

well at least you dont need this system so please dont look at it and somebody else has
a chance.............the meek will inherit the earth!
 
Aug 11, 2003
5,107
877
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#7
vetten said:
didn`t I say 300 +++++++++++++++++++++
and if that can be achieved with small trades and with a consistent system, well that`s
a good start aint it.
yep always so good to look down on those trials and it makes you feel so much better aye.

well at least you dont need this system so please dont look at it and somebody else has
a chance...
Not knocking it, just saying mate.... I agree it is a very tidy start.

I still think 3-4 trades a year is too easy. That should be something anyone can do really....

vetten said:
..........the meek will inherit the earth!
I thought it was the cheese makers?
 

firewalker99

Well-known member
Jul 29, 2006
6,655
597
173
#8
vetten said:
hello folks,

Jilly B was posting her journal and was very succesfull with a success rate of about 80% of her trades and money to count at the end of it.
After all I suppose it is possible to have a success rate of 80% and still lose money.

Does any-one know of 80% success raters which are profitable and freely available for me to
have a look at?

thanks people
The real question should be, do you need to win 80% of the time to make money?
 
Oct 31, 2004
78
4
18
BOP
#9
firewalker99 said:
The real question should be, do you need to win 80% of the time to make money?
maybe I`m ambitious firewalker, but I wouldn`t mind a system that`s right 80%+ of the time.
I do have a very good system now, but it would be kind of nice to place any excess money
if I get a very reliable signal from another system.
If I have a 80% system, there might be some set-ups in here that statisticly are even better
bets than 80%.
so come on walker there must be 80% systems that are public knowledge, so just point me
in the right direction, even if you dont need one. :D
 

TWI

Well-known member
Jan 22, 2004
2,516
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London
#10
The thing vetten you fail to grasp is saying 80% success means nothing. What is important is positive expectancy. Google it and learn something. Once you have positive expectancy, all that matters is the volume you can apply to that system before slippage gets the better of you.
As for these systems posted on boards. I had a quick look at the one you posted. I would be extremely sceptical before you have made those returns yourself. Very easy for people who never ever risked a bean to make unsubstantiated claims about untradable systems. The best thing you will get from the boards is some ideas you did not consder yourself, after that the hard work begins and eventually, if you apply yourself correctly you may make a few pennies.
 
Likes: firewalker99

firewalker99

Well-known member
Jul 29, 2006
6,655
597
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#12
TWI said:
The thing vetten you fail to grasp is saying 80% success means nothing. What is important is positive expectancy. Google it and learn something. Once you have positive expectancy, all that matters is the volume you can apply to that system before slippage gets the better of you.
As for these systems posted on boards. I had a quick look at the one you posted. I would be extremely sceptical before you have made those returns yourself. Very easy for people who never ever risked a bean to make unsubstantiated claims about untradable systems. The best thing you will get from the boards is some ideas you did not consder yourself, after that the hard work begins and eventually, if you apply yourself correctly you may make a few pennies.
Excellent post. I second that.

Vetten: how about this for a system (take any market you wish as an example):
- go long when market opens
- wait to close trade when trade is in profit (you can hold overnight)
- set your stop at 5 times the average daily range

Have a look at last 3 months (YM, NQ, DAX,...) and this system should give you at least 90% wins (because we've been in an steady uptrend).
But how about the one or two big drawdowns (recent correction) where you lose out all of the gains of 10 or 20 trades? Winning % means nothing, expectancy is key.
 
Oct 31, 2004
78
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#13
TWI said:
The thing vetten you fail to grasp is saying 80% success means nothing. What is important is positive expectancy. Google it and learn something. Once you have positive expectancy, all that matters is the volume you can apply to that system before slippage gets the better of you.
As for these systems posted on boards. I had a quick look at the one you posted. I would be extremely sceptical before you have made those returns yourself. Very easy for people who never ever risked a bean to make unsubstantiated claims about untradable systems. The best thing you will get from the boards is some ideas you did not consder yourself, after that the hard work begins and eventually, if you apply yourself correctly you may make a few pennies.
hi TWI..........thanks for your reply.
I think there`s nothing wrong with looking over 80%+ success systems and see how they
act over a longer period of time. Positive expectancy would ofcourse be part of testing of these systems before committing any money in the market.

I printed out JillyB`s system but I havent had a look yet. I think she traded the Dow ETF, DIA,
so with 9 million shares traded daily on average, slippage wont be much of a problem.
It`s also a end of day system (although she used it also on shorter time frames) and I would place limit orders.

I know all about the hard work. My present system took me 3 years to find and tweak and its making me over 100%. The only problem is that the allocated funds for this system are limited,
so I`m looking at other systems.
If I can find something for the DIA, size wont be a problem! :)
 
Oct 31, 2004
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18
BOP
#14
fibonelli said:
Vetten
Adding to TWI's message, you also need to understand Tharp's formula on expectancy.
Hi fib, how you`re doing?

well that`s probably what TWI was saying with his positive expectancy.
mind you, I think Tharp is no trader but a coach, but nevertheless that sort of people
still write fat books about trading ;)
 
Oct 31, 2004
78
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BOP
#15
Hi f/walker,

I appreciate you telling me your secret strategy, but if you don`t mind I`ll pass.
I think there`s nothing wrong looking at 80%+ strategies, so if you have those in your tool
kit that have a 80% success rate beyond 3 months survival, well I`ll just have a look.
thanks for now ;)