80% success rate

[vetten]

hello folks,

Jilly B was posting her journal and was very succesfull with a success rate of about 80% of her trades and money to count at the end of it.
After all I suppose it is possible to have a success rate of 80% and still lose money.

Does any-one know of 80% success raters which are profitable and freely available for me to
have a look at?

thanks people

 

[rols]

hello folks,

Jilly B was posting her journal and was very succesfull with a success rate of about 80% of her trades and money to count at the end of it.
After all I suppose it is possible to have a success rate of 80% and still lose money.

Does any-one know of 80% success raters which are profitable and freely available for me to
have a look at?

thanks people

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=moon+on+a+stick

 

[wasp]

Heard of this one..................?

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=253696&postcount=77

 

[vetten]

wow, you guys rols and wasp are sooooooooooo funny!

because you guys are so open minded, I`ll give yous an example of what I mean.
check it out if you two want to go anywhere........

go to forex factory to a thread called "4 hour strategy" 300+ pips per month and tell
me what you think

 

[wasp]

300 pips a month is that it? That's easy....

Why not get some charts and look at them... I could post you a couple of FX ones that offer 2 or 3 trades a year no problem. Would take half hour of analysis and they would be blatant in real time too.

Its much more of a challenge to make 20 trades a month and still come out okay.

 

[vetten]

300 pips a month is that it? That's easy....

didn`t I say 300 +++++++++++++++++++++
and if that can be achieved with small trades and with a consistent system, well that`s
a good start aint it.
yep always so good to look down on those trials and it makes you feel so much better aye.

well at least you dont need this system so please dont look at it and somebody else has
a chance.............the meek will inherit the earth!

 

[wasp]

didn`t I say 300 +++++++++++++++++++++
and if that can be achieved with small trades and with a consistent system, well that`s
a good start aint it.
yep always so good to look down on those trials and it makes you feel so much better aye.

well at least you dont need this system so please dont look at it and somebody else has
a chance...

Not knocking it, just saying mate.... I agree it is a very tidy start.

I still think 3-4 trades a year is too easy. That should be something anyone can do really....

..........the meek will inherit the earth!

I thought it was the cheese makers?

 

[firewalker99]

hello folks,

Jilly B was posting her journal and was very succesfull with a success rate of about 80% of her trades and money to count at the end of it.
After all I suppose it is possible to have a success rate of 80% and still lose money.

Does any-one know of 80% success raters which are profitable and freely available for me to
have a look at?

thanks people

The real question should be, do you need to win 80% of the time to make money?

 

[vetten]

The real question should be, do you need to win 80% of the time to make money?

maybe I`m ambitious firewalker, but I wouldn`t mind a system that`s right 80%+ of the time.
I do have a very good system now, but it would be kind of nice to place any excess money
if I get a very reliable signal from another system.
If I have a 80% system, there might be some set-ups in here that statisticly are even better
bets than 80%.
so come on walker there must be 80% systems that are public knowledge, so just point me
in the right direction, even if you dont need one.

 

[TWI]

The thing vetten you fail to grasp is saying 80% success means nothing. What is important is positive expectancy. Google it and learn something. Once you have positive expectancy, all that matters is the volume you can apply to that system before slippage gets the better of you.
As for these systems posted on boards. I had a quick look at the one you posted. I would be extremely sceptical before you have made those returns yourself. Very easy for people who never ever risked a bean to make unsubstantiated claims about untradable systems. The best thing you will get from the boards is some ideas you did not consder yourself, after that the hard work begins and eventually, if you apply yourself correctly you may make a few pennies.

 

[fibonelli]

Vetten
Adding to TWI's message, you also need to understand Tharp's formula on expectancy.

 

[firewalker99]

The thing vetten you fail to grasp is saying 80% success means nothing. What is important is positive expectancy. Google it and learn something. Once you have positive expectancy, all that matters is the volume you can apply to that system before slippage gets the better of you.
As for these systems posted on boards. I had a quick look at the one you posted. I would be extremely sceptical before you have made those returns yourself. Very easy for people who never ever risked a bean to make unsubstantiated claims about untradable systems. The best thing you will get from the boards is some ideas you did not consder yourself, after that the hard work begins and eventually, if you apply yourself correctly you may make a few pennies.

Excellent post. I second that.

Vetten: how about this for a system (take any market you wish as an example):
- go long when market opens
- wait to close trade when trade is in profit (you can hold overnight)
- set your stop at 5 times the average daily range

Have a look at last 3 months (YM, NQ, DAX,...) and this system should give you at least 90% wins (because we've been in an steady uptrend).
But how about the one or two big drawdowns (recent correction) where you lose out all of the gains of 10 or 20 trades? Winning % means nothing, expectancy is key.

 

[vetten]

The thing vetten you fail to grasp is saying 80% success means nothing. What is important is positive expectancy. Google it and learn something. Once you have positive expectancy, all that matters is the volume you can apply to that system before slippage gets the better of you.
As for these systems posted on boards. I had a quick look at the one you posted. I would be extremely sceptical before you have made those returns yourself. Very easy for people who never ever risked a bean to make unsubstantiated claims about untradable systems. The best thing you will get from the boards is some ideas you did not consder yourself, after that the hard work begins and eventually, if you apply yourself correctly you may make a few pennies.

hi TWI..........thanks for your reply.
I think there`s nothing wrong with looking over 80%+ success systems and see how they
act over a longer period of time. Positive expectancy would ofcourse be part of testing of these systems before committing any money in the market.

I printed out JillyB`s system but I havent had a look yet. I think she traded the Dow ETF, DIA,
so with 9 million shares traded daily on average, slippage wont be much of a problem.
It`s also a end of day system (although she used it also on shorter time frames) and I would place limit orders.

I know all about the hard work. My present system took me 3 years to find and tweak and its making me over 100%. The only problem is that the allocated funds for this system are limited,
so I`m looking at other systems.
If I can find something for the DIA, size wont be a problem!

 

[vetten]

Vetten
Adding to TWI's message, you also need to understand Tharp's formula on expectancy.

Hi fib, how you`re doing?

well that`s probably what TWI was saying with his positive expectancy.
mind you, I think Tharp is no trader but a coach, but nevertheless that sort of people
still write fat books about trading

 

[vetten]

Hi f/walker,

I appreciate you telling me your secret strategy, but if you don`t mind I`ll pass.
I think there`s nothing wrong looking at 80%+ strategies, so if you have those in your tool
kit that have a 80% success rate beyond 3 months survival, well I`ll just have a look.
thanks for now

 

[vetten]

hey guys,

JIllyB`s journal has added charts people could have a look at, but those dont seems to be available anymore...........anybody knows where to look for those charts?
thanks

 

[firewalker99]

Hi f/walker,

I appreciate you telling me your secret strategy, but if you don`t mind I`ll pass.
I think there`s nothing wrong looking at 80%+ strategies, so if you have those in your tool
kit that have a 80% success rate beyond 3 months survival, well I`ll just have a look.
thanks for now

Actually, none of those are part of my toolkit. I'm content with the edge I have and it's sufficient enough to be consistenly profitable without a 80% success rate.
Incidentally, I know a trader who averages +90% wins and has been trading this for several years, but you can't expect people to disclose something they have worked very hard for (and probably lost a lot of money on in the first place). Hard work is the only key to success.

 

[vetten]

Actually, none of those are part of my toolkit. I'm content with the edge I have and it's sufficient enough to be consistenly profitable without a 80% success rate.
Incidentally, I know a trader who averages +90% wins and has been trading this for several years, but you can't expect people to disclose something they have worked very hard for (and probably lost a lot of money on in the first place). Hard work is the only key to success.

well good on you to be happy with your present system, but for me I`m not happy until I double my money year on year.
Like you say, it is hard work to get a succesful system; you have to be quite a fanatic to get anywhere and to be sooooo disciplined

Like I said before, I dont expect anybody to divulge their hard fought for successful system,
but there are system in the public area that are quite succesful and with a lot of TLC could become prolific.
So if anybody can point me in the right direction....................????

 

[firewalker99]

well good on you to be happy with your present system, but for me I`m not happy until I double my money year on year.
Like you say, it is hard work to get a succesful system; you have to be quite a fanatic to get anywhere and to be sooooo disciplined

Like I said before, I dont expect anybody to divulge their hard fought for successful system,
but there are system in the public area that are quite succesful and with a lot of TLC could become prolific.
So if anybody can point me in the right direction....................????

If you think you need an 80% edge to double your money in one year, you couldn't be more mistaken. People with a much lesser edge can make 500-1000% a year. If I win half of my trades (50% edge) and manage to gain 5% with risking 2% on each single trade, doing around 500 trades a year would make me approximately 1500%.

Ofcourse there are a dozen of systems out there, and on this forum. But tweaking them to your own risk aversion, money management, trading time frame, etc... is a whole different thing. If you want to see some successful systems, have a look in the journals thread... laptop1 even showed his live trades on YM last couple of weeks.

 

[vetten]

If you think you need an 80% edge to double your money in one year, you couldn't be more mistaken.

each to their own, as long as you`re happy

I`ll have a look at laptop1 to see if its a 80%+ system.........thanks for that