3*13=39 trading strategy

Dr Iraj

Member
59 2
Found this in my database. I have no idea where I have got it from.

A Simple Moving Average Trading System

3x13X39 = Profit
I want to address a question commonly asked by those who are computer phobic, techno confused and Internet allergic, "What is a good simple system to follow, to get in and out of markets?".
Most people are comfortable with the herd. Such good folk are most comfortable with a trend following system. I am ill at ease in a pack and downright anxious when everybody and his dog are comfortably saying the same thing. I am, therefore, drawn to oscillators to anticipate the end of popular perception. Oscillators also give an insight into the cyclical nature of markets. Being obsessed with market structure and somewhat compulsive in my quest for efficiency my ways are not 'comfortable' for many. So to get back to basics for those not able or willing to devote the time to market study that I do here is a way to handle your market study and trading decisions.
Remember the numbers 3 x 13 x 39 = Profit
Simple daily moving averages of 3,13 and 39 can keep you in and out of markets fairly efficiently and profitably, (in any time frame actually). I will show you how.
Some basic principles to hang on to are:
· The market moves in long (secular) trends which may last years, e.g. the present equity bull market dates from 1982.
· Intermediate trends lasting many months, even a couple of years or so.
· Short term trends lasting weeks or months.
· Trade intermediate trends in either direction.
· Trade short term trends only in the direction of the intermediate trend.
Proxies:
· 3 Day MA - a proxy for price
· 13 Day MA - a proxy for the short term trend (a moving trend line)
· 39 Day MA - a proxy for the intermediate trend (a moving trend line)
· 40 week, 200 day MA - a proxy for the secular trend (a moving Trend line)
The Basics of MAs
MAs lag market reversals at tops and bottoms, the larger the MA the longer the lag period, the shorter the MA the shorter the lag but the more frequent the whipsaws. MAs work well when markets trend but get frequently whipsawed when they are in a range.
Therefore, trade trends with the MAs but do not trade ranges using MAs. Just stand aside and be patient until a new trend emerges.
The intermediate trend is in the direction of the 39 MA which acts like a moving trend line. If the 39 MA is pointing up then the intermediate trend is up, if down the trend is down. If the 39 MA is horizontal the market is in a range, from which a trend will, sooner or later, emerge.
Simple Trading Rules
1. When the 39 MA is moving up buy when the 3 MA crosses up over the 13 MA. and/or when the 3 MA crosses above the 39 MA.. When the 13 MA crosses above the 39 MA consider adding to your long position. Exit and stand aside when the 3 crosses back below the 13 MA..
2. When the 39 MA is moving down sell short when the 3 MA crosses below the 13 MA. and/or when the 3 MA crosses below the 39 MA.. When the 13 MA crosses below the 39 MA consider adding to your short position. Exit and stand aside when the 3 MA crosses back up over the 13 MA.
3. Only initiate trades in the opposite direction of the intermediate trend when the 3 MA crosses above or below the 39 MA, preferably after the 39 MA has already changed direction.
4. This 3:13 MA crossover will keep you trading in the trend with only a small lag and on the sidelines during corrections. The lag only becomes more substantial at reversals of the intermediate trend (a 3:39 crossover), a small price to pay at these uncertain times of trend transition.


Aids to Interpretation
· When the 3:13 crossovers occur at some distance from the 39 MA then you are 'likely' dealing with a short term correction (even though it can be substantial) to the 39 MA..
· If the 3:13 & 39 MAs are close and converging before crossing over you are 'likely' dealing with an intermediate (or significant) correction of the trend or reversal.
· 'Likely' means probable not 'you can bet the farm on it' surety. There is no sure thing just as there is absolutely no free lunch.
 
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rag_g

Newbie
1 0
"The intermediate trend is in the direction of the 39 MA which acts like a moving trend line. If the 39 MA is pointing up then the intermediate trend is up, if down the trend is down. If the 39 MA is horizontal the market is in a range, from which a trend will, sooner or later, emerge. "

How can I program the identification of the three stages of a trend, up or down or neutral of a MA time series? What are some of the techniques used to objectively define these using math or statistics or curve fitting?


Found this in my database. I have no idea where I have got it from.

A Simple Moving Average Trading System

3x13X39 = Profit
I want to address a question commonly asked by those who are computer phobic, techno confused and Internet allergic, "What is a good simple system to follow, to get in and out of markets?".
Most people are comfortable with the herd. Such good folk are most comfortable with a trend following system. I am ill at ease in a pack and downright anxious when everybody and his dog are comfortably saying the same thing. I am, therefore, drawn to oscillators to anticipate the end of popular perception. Oscillators also give an insight into the cyclical nature of markets. Being obsessed with market structure and somewhat compulsive in my quest for efficiency my ways are not 'comfortable' for many. So to get back to basics for those not able or willing to devote the time to market study that I do here is a way to handle your market study and trading decisions.
Remember the numbers 3 x 13 x 39 = Profit
Simple daily moving averages of 3,13 and 39 can keep you in and out of markets fairly efficiently and profitably, (in any time frame actually). I will show you how.
Some basic principles to hang on to are:
· The market moves in long (secular) trends which may last years, e.g. the present equity bull market dates from 1982.
· Intermediate trends lasting many months, even a couple of years or so.
· Short term trends lasting weeks or months.
· Trade intermediate trends in either direction.
· Trade short term trends only in the direction of the intermediate trend.
Proxies:
· 3 Day MA - a proxy for price
· 13 Day MA - a proxy for the short term trend (a moving trend line)
· 39 Day MA - a proxy for the intermediate trend (a moving trend line)
· 40 week, 200 day MA - a proxy for the secular trend (a moving Trend line)
The Basics of MAs
MAs lag market reversals at tops and bottoms, the larger the MA the longer the lag period, the shorter the MA the shorter the lag but the more frequent the whipsaws. MAs work well when markets trend but get frequently whipsawed when they are in a range.
Therefore, trade trends with the MAs but do not trade ranges using MAs. Just stand aside and be patient until a new trend emerges.
The intermediate trend is in the direction of the 39 MA which acts like a moving trend line. If the 39 MA is pointing up then the intermediate trend is up, if down the trend is down. If the 39 MA is horizontal the market is in a range, from which a trend will, sooner or later, emerge.
Simple Trading Rules
1. When the 39 MA is moving up buy when the 3 MA crosses up over the 13 MA. and/or when the 3 MA crosses above the 39 MA.. When the 13 MA crosses above the 39 MA consider adding to your long position. Exit and stand aside when the 3 crosses back below the 13 MA..
2. When the 39 MA is moving down sell short when the 3 MA crosses below the 13 MA. and/or when the 3 MA crosses below the 39 MA.. When the 13 MA crosses below the 39 MA consider adding to your short position. Exit and stand aside when the 3 MA crosses back up over the 13 MA.
3. Only initiate trades in the opposite direction of the intermediate trend when the 3 MA crosses above or below the 39 MA, preferably after the 39 MA has already changed direction.
4. This 3:13 MA crossover will keep you trading in the trend with only a small lag and on the sidelines during corrections. The lag only becomes more substantial at reversals of the intermediate trend (a 3:39 crossover), a small price to pay at these uncertain times of trend transition.


Aids to Interpretation
· When the 3:13 crossovers occur at some distance from the 39 MA then you are 'likely' dealing with a short term correction (even though it can be substantial) to the 39 MA..
· If the 3:13 & 39 MAs are close and converging before crossing over you are 'likely' dealing with an intermediate (or significant) correction of the trend or reversal.
· 'Likely' means probable not 'you can bet the farm on it' surety. There is no sure thing just as there is absolutely no free lunch.
 

philhackett

Active member
113 10
Found this in my database. I have no idea where I have got it from.

A Simple Moving Average Trading System

3x13X39 = Profit
I want to address a question commonly asked by those who are computer phobic, techno confused and Internet allergic, "What is a good simple system to follow, to get in and out of markets?".
Most people are comfortable with the herd. Such good folk are most comfortable with a trend following system. I am ill at ease in a pack and downright anxious when everybody and his dog are comfortably saying the same thing. I am, therefore, drawn to oscillators to anticipate the end of popular perception. Oscillators also give an insight into the cyclical nature of markets. Being obsessed with market structure and somewhat compulsive in my quest for efficiency my ways are not 'comfortable' for many. So to get back to basics for those not able or willing to devote the time to market study that I do here is a way to handle your market study and trading decisions.
Remember the numbers 3 x 13 x 39 = Profit
Simple daily moving averages of 3,13 and 39 can keep you in and out of markets fairly efficiently and profitably, (in any time frame actually). I will show you how.
Some basic principles to hang on to are:
· The market moves in long (secular) trends which may last years, e.g. the present equity bull market dates from 1982.
· Intermediate trends lasting many months, even a couple of years or so.
· Short term trends lasting weeks or months.
· Trade intermediate trends in either direction.
· Trade short term trends only in the direction of the intermediate trend.
Proxies:
· 3 Day MA - a proxy for price
· 13 Day MA - a proxy for the short term trend (a moving trend line)
· 39 Day MA - a proxy for the intermediate trend (a moving trend line)
· 40 week, 200 day MA - a proxy for the secular trend (a moving Trend line)
The Basics of MAs
MAs lag market reversals at tops and bottoms, the larger the MA the longer the lag period, the shorter the MA the shorter the lag but the more frequent the whipsaws. MAs work well when markets trend but get frequently whipsawed when they are in a range.
Therefore, trade trends with the MAs but do not trade ranges using MAs. Just stand aside and be patient until a new trend emerges.
The intermediate trend is in the direction of the 39 MA which acts like a moving trend line. If the 39 MA is pointing up then the intermediate trend is up, if down the trend is down. If the 39 MA is horizontal the market is in a range, from which a trend will, sooner or later, emerge.
Simple Trading Rules
1. When the 39 MA is moving up buy when the 3 MA crosses up over the 13 MA. and/or when the 3 MA crosses above the 39 MA.. When the 13 MA crosses above the 39 MA consider adding to your long position. Exit and stand aside when the 3 crosses back below the 13 MA..
2. When the 39 MA is moving down sell short when the 3 MA crosses below the 13 MA. and/or when the 3 MA crosses below the 39 MA.. When the 13 MA crosses below the 39 MA consider adding to your short position. Exit and stand aside when the 3 MA crosses back up over the 13 MA.
3. Only initiate trades in the opposite direction of the intermediate trend when the 3 MA crosses above or below the 39 MA, preferably after the 39 MA has already changed direction.
4. This 3:13 MA crossover will keep you trading in the trend with only a small lag and on the sidelines during corrections. The lag only becomes more substantial at reversals of the intermediate trend (a 3:39 crossover), a small price to pay at these uncertain times of trend transition.


Aids to Interpretation
· When the 3:13 crossovers occur at some distance from the 39 MA then you are 'likely' dealing with a short term correction (even though it can be substantial) to the 39 MA..
· If the 3:13 & 39 MAs are close and converging before crossing over you are 'likely' dealing with an intermediate (or significant) correction of the trend or reversal.
· 'Likely' means probable not 'you can bet the farm on it' surety. There is no sure thing just as there is absolutely no free lunch.
You got this from me!
 

philhackett

Active member
113 10
The 3x13x39 SMA method originated with me. I also combine it with DiNapoli MACD and DiNapoli preferred Stochastics. When both indicators agree you may trade with confidence; the DMACD will give a clear exit signal which means you may remain in the trade even if it looks as though the trade has been ended by the Stochastic. I trade with GFTUK.
 

philhackett

Active member
113 10
I'm aware this is a decade old thread.

How do you use the 200 ma?
Combine it with a 50 SMA. When the 50 SMA crosses the 200 SMA upwards it is called a Golden Cross i.e. the market is Bullish and if it crosses downwards it is a Dead Cross and Bearish. Use it with different times i.e. 5-15-30-60 minutes to ascertain the strength of the trend.
 

shakeel ahmed

Junior member
49 0
Combine it with a 50 SMA. When the 50 SMA crosses the 200 SMA upwards it is called a Golden Cross i.e. the market is Bullish and if it crosses downwards it is a Dead Cross and Bearish. Use it with different times i.e. 5-15-30-60 minutes to ascertain the strength of the trend.
For solving a problem,at least two variables are required,and two must be corelated---here twos are price,volume but are they related to each other,in bull mkt,price is up,volume is up,price is down,volume is down---but in bear mkt,price is up,volume is down.. so p/v r separately interperated and so the chances of error is large.So it is like an arts.Moving avgs r just indications of new trend but whether it is about to end or just ov/bought,ov/sold,it is uncertain.(y)
 

philhackett

Active member
113 10
You got this from me

"The intermediate trend is in the direction of the 39 MA which acts like a moving trend line. If the 39 MA is pointing up then the intermediate trend is up, if down the trend is down. If the 39 MA is horizontal the market is in a range, from which a trend will, sooner or later, emerge. "

How can I program the identification of the three stages of a trend, up or down or neutral of a MA time series? What are some of the techniques used to objectively define these using math or statistics or curve fitting?
You got this from me a long time ago.
 

0007

Senior member
2,304 606
You got this from me. It works very well if the rules are adhered to.

I'll second that. Used in conjunction with decent money management it's a simple and potentially very profitable system which lends itself to easy EOD scanning. I've been using something almost identical for quite a while. Very well explained and laid out by philhackett who is to be commended for his generosity.
 

NVP

Legendary member
36,774 1,880
In any multiple ma,system you need to set the ma.s to reflect fast , med ,long term and it can be a steady system if used with some common sense

Check,out the 3 ducks from captain currency here at t2win

Caps been doing this,forever

I also have talked about a 3 ma or TF system using my fxcorrelator .....I think the word doc is in my links

N
 

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