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Yuppie

Yuppie

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I've had a good look around on T2W and cannot find an answer to this query...

...and if we can get a consensus answer on this, we can all perhaps collect a bit of free money :p...

A well know spread-betting company (don't wish to promote, but have a search, you'll find it) offers a day of "risk-free" trading on the FTSE Index (note: this is the Index, not an individual share on the FTSE Index)... but, just one day, as an introductory "welcome"...

Essentially, you can trade as much as you like on the FTSE Index throughout the day, but putting on only £2/point maximum... and you may only have one trade on at any one time...

At the end of the day, any losses to your account from the trading of the Index on that day will be covered (your account will be reset to the balance at the start of the day)... OR... any gains on your account at the end of the day will be kept by you - :)...

The real problem is this...

As I am still an aspriring trader I am sure that, the more I trade on that day, the closer I will approach break-even on the day...

So...

...the only real way I can see as "fool-proof" is to open two accounts (I already have one open), go LONG on one and SHORT on the other, and close at some point. So I will gain whichever way the FTSE decides to go...

However...

...is there a day where the move is almost certain to be pretty decent - albeit, not knowing which direction the move will be (as this doesn't matter)?

I've been checking out past news days and such to see if there is any day which is certain to have a big move, but alas, none... maybe this is something that cannot be known?...


Magnus
 
I live in Qaraghandy. It's a very handy place to be.

If you can open 2, why not open 3 or 4? Then you could try multiple things! Also with this account, do you have to continue to trade with them, a lot of SB companies say "Free £100" but in the T&S you have to bet a total of £250 to be able to withdraw it.

I'll try and find a site for you I read a few weeks ago about daily ranges for things like indices and forex...

Can't find it for ftse, found some for forex though. There's a lot of news out next week: Economic Calendar maybe that will help, but I gotta rush out to the shops. Hope you find a "sure thing" :).
 
Last edited:
KillPhil08 said:
I live in Qaraghandy. It's a very handy place to be.

If you can open 2, why not open 3 or 4? Then you could try multiple things! Also with this account, do you have to continue to trade with them, a lot of SB companies say "Free £100" but in the T&S you have to bet a total of £250 to be able to withdraw it.

I'll try and find a site for you I read a few weeks ago about daily ranges for things like indices and forex...

Can't find it for ftse, found some for forex though. There's a lot of news out next week: Economic Calendar maybe that will help, but I gotta rush out to the shops. Hope you find a "sure thing" :).
Click to expand...


As far as I am aware, you can take out any profits if you wish.

I checked out Mondays... but they seem to be as arbitrary as any other day.

The problem with multiple accounts is that you'd have to have them in various names - really becomes a compromise of effort vs. gain...

I really have no idea of fundamentals/news/etc, hence my quandry... may just have to pick a random day...


Magnus
 
Look closer at that economic calendar - most of the news is on tuesday - and ZEW is listed (but to save the effort I'll copy and paste what it says).

ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Sep)

Actual: release at 09:00 GMTCons.: n/aPrevious: -55.5

The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. An optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).
 
ZEW is on the 16th I think - usually moves the market.

I'd stay away from non farms - you'll prob be stopped out on both.
 
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Where is ZEW?...

KillPhil08 said:
Look closer at that economic calendar - most of the news is on tuesday - and ZEW is listed (but to save the effort I'll copy and paste what it says).

ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Sep)

Actual: release at 09:00 GMTCons.: n/aPrevious: -55.5

The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. An optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).
Click to expand...


I think we might be onto something here... done a bit of research on the ZEW... interesting, and I'll post soon... but...

I was on the CBOT calendar for the dates of the ZEW... it has this months and is, as choc pointed, this Tuesday... I cannot find a date for October or November... is there a reason for this? Do they only know nearer the time?

Any help with this would be much appreciated.


Regards,

Magnus
 
chocolate13 said:
ZEW is on the 16th I think - usually moves the market.

I'd stay away from non farms - you'll prob be stopped out on both.
Click to expand...


Aye choc, thank you, it's the 16th right enough... and, as I posted above, I will show my initial research on how much it moves the market soon...

I did check out NFP, but doesn't seem to do much... perhaps it's mainly a ForEx thing...

Also, just out of interest, there is no fear of being stopped-out on this one-off strategy... I won't have stops as there will be enough capital in the accounts and no hard stops... the trades are opposing so there is no need :)


Magnus
 
Zew...

Right... some FTSE data... [this is from 02/01/08 to 12/09/08]

The average range from open to high and open to low is 52 and 63 points respectively...

The average [absolute] range from open to close is 65 points...

So... picking any day on the FTSE, you may expect to obtain an average of 65 points by taking positions at the open and covering at the close...

Now, this is AVERAGE... it's a total coin-toss as to what will actually happen on the day though...


Now comes the ZEW data...

These are the ranges for the open and close levels for the day the ZEW was reported each month this year (with maximum deviation from the open in brackets):

August 130 (133)
July 129 (181)
June 67 (136)
May 185 (185)
April 75 (112)
March 61 (154)
February 202 (202)
January 190 (190)


...intruiging...

An initial strategy may be to take positions at the open and cover both of these once 100 points has been reach - in whichever direction... has anyone any further thoughts?


Magnus
 
its not a good idea for me. I tried it on speculation bases but found nothing. The thing is you must have a good strategy to make money.
 
fakhar said:
its not a good idea for me. I tried it on speculation bases but found nothing. The thing is you must have a good strategy to make money.
Click to expand...

... and there is no better strategy than one that has absolutely zero risk... even though it is a one-off... :p


Magnus
 
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