The Trading Journey of Lurker

lurkerlurker · Jun 10, 2007

I can't have this in my avatar

Due to a message "You may not upload animated images."

Calling all moderators / side admins! Can someone please tell me why I can post an animated gif but not use one as an avatar? Those who are distracted by the flickering could have a UserCP option to turn it off, no?

Dinos · Jun 11, 2007

Hi Lurker,

Thread coming along nicely,

I keep my short, because you will have read it before.

Plan it, KISS, trade it.

No one system is correct, its how it feels to you, so long as you are comfortable and you get the dividends, then it works.

Good luck and keep up the good work

barjon · Jun 11, 2007

lurkerlurker said:
Due to a message "You may not upload animated images."

Calling all moderators / side admins! Can someone please tell me why I can post an animated gif but not use one as an avatar? Those who are distracted by the flickering could have a UserCP option to turn it off, no?

sorry, lurker - no can do

we had trouble with animated avatars some time ago so that's why they are not allowed.

cheers

jon

lurkerlurker · Jun 12, 2007

Trading Summary 11 June 2007

Markets Traded: YMU7 through SB

Trades: 1
Winning Trades: 1
Win %: 100%
Profit / Loss: 27

Trade One:

Long 13567
Cover 13594

Entered trade on break of resistance, strong tick showing a a trend day. Overall trend up. Covered when SB website went down (I'll always exit if there are technical problems). Covered at the market by phone.

firewalker99 · Jun 12, 2007

lurkerlurker said:
M

Entered trade on break of resistance, strong tick showing a a trend day. Overall trend up. Covered when SB website went down (I'll always exit if there are technical problems). Covered at the market by phone.

Good exit, but you covered for an external reason, so this trade doesn't really count.
Where would you have exited or closed the position and what target did you have in mind? That's important to analyze your trading, otherwise you won't get any consistent results and don't know if it's based on luck or a decent strategy...

lurkerlurker · Jun 12, 2007

firewalker99 said:
Good exit, but you covered for an external reason, so this trade doesn't really count.
Where would you have exited or closed the position and what target did you have in mind? That's important to analyze your trading, otherwise you won't get any consistent results and don't know if it's based on luck or a decent strategy...

Well, I wouldn't have let it become a loss. There were 2 further peaks after my exit, and I would have covered on the failure to hold a break above 600, and there was tick divs present so I would have covered at around 95.

Valid point though - maybe the data feed went down at the top of the move and I was lucky.
External exits don't count as good trades.

lurkerlurker · Jun 13, 2007

Trading Summary 13 June 2007

I refer to my summary on the Dow 2007 thread, and to my earlier posts on that thread. Comments and guidance would be appreciated.

I had a night off tonight, but will return to assessing my trades late tomorrow morning, conclusions to be posted before the US open.

Contributions are invited.

lurkerlurker · Jun 13, 2007

Pertainent Posts from Dow 2007 for 12 June 2007

lurkerlurker said:
Failure to break the low of the current 15 minute bar (13485) will signal me to either go long or stay flat today. A break of that bar will rule out longs for awhile.

lurkerlurker said:
It looks like this will be a longs only day, but I'm not sure until this 15 min bar closes. Will do some intermarket analysis in the meantime, checking in with the ES and the NQ.

lurkerlurker said:
Long 502 futures. Target 522.

lurkerlurker said:
Out 486 (-15).

lurkerlurker said:
Easy enough trade to take guys. Looks like we are all starting from a loss then...

The clue was the failure to fill the opening gap, although it looked to me like a pullback to a higher low. I'm not trading this until things become clearer (S/R established).

I'm calling a trend day. Tick is having real trouble breaking above zero, and the ES, YM, and NQ are down strongly.

lurkerlurker said:
Long 69 futures.

lurkerlurker said:
Out 70. +1 chicken****.

Well, not really chicken, it was an intentional scalp, but I was wanting +3 (but I was too slow of the mark to claim it)

lurkerlurker said:
Interesting volume on the 5 min bars. Less lots changing hands as the price increases. That's not very bullish now, is it?

NYSE $Tick has just plummeted to almost -900, near LOD. Interesting. We have a downtrend accross the tops of $Tick bars, and volume. If I can sell at 70 I will.

lurkerlurker said:
I was quoted 13468 on the bid for a split second, and tried to sell it but the price went to 13567 as I hit confirm. Bugger. If I get another chance at that price I'll doubt my short entry.

lurkerlurker said:
Had the chance to short at 73, but pulled the order. Not sure about this at all. We are in a range, and I need a breakout to be sure. Tick is fairly flat, the volume divergence isn't saying any more than it was last time...

Just overall not sure, so staying out. (thats a position, isn't it?)

lurkerlurker said:
I've got another chance at it, and this is something like the 3rd time. I want it even less now!

lurkerlurker said:
Gutted about not selling 70. I could cover at +20 now if I had.
Good call firewalker - I guess volume reading comes with experience - I read it as less selling pressure instead of a rest before bearish continuation.

Well done on your pips!

firewalker99 said:
You did have the same idea in mind about selling there though. Shame you didn't take it, but at least you can take comfort in the fact you were reading it reasonably right.

lurkerlurker said:
Thanks. I didn't take it in the end because I wasn't confident. To clarify, I accept the possibility that even the best looking trade can go against me and plan accordingly. However, in this instance the possibility of a bounce seemed high enough to

Make me wonder where to set a stop (this was not obvious in the slightest)

Make me doubt my ability to manage the trade confidently and with a cool head

In short, my decision not to trade at that price was based more on psychology than on the market action. Maybe I should ensure I ponder this and write something in my journal later.

lurkerlurker said:
I can't believe I just did that. I shorted 89 and covered 502. And I don't know why.

lurkerlurker said:
I just gave back yesterdays profits, +1. In my head I was saying to myself over and over "go long on a break of 90). What the hell is wrong with me.

lurkerlurker said:
Short 88 futures.

lurkerlurker said:
Out with -7. That is a loss for the day of £35, so no more trades for me. Gave back yesterdays profits and another £8.

lurkerlurker said:
I keep getting short signals.

lurkerlurker said:
Okay, so the shorts I haven't taken today but got signals for according to my system have been profitable. The trades I have taken which don't agree with my system have not been profitable. What does that tell us?

Now, why can't I pull the trigger on my system (shorts at 70 earlier as discussed with FW, 510 as seen on chart, and 90 as seen on chart) and refrain from taking trades which aren't signalled (imaginary double top short)

lurkerlurker said:
I've shorted again. From 87 this time. (futures) Stop loss at 517 (above highs, 30 point TI minimum).

I'm pissing off for a wee while now. Oh yes, limit order to cover at 73.

lurkerlurker said:
Sit and wait!? I have a position

13495 will tell me I am wrong (above high of last 15 min bar), 13500 would confirm I am wrong, and I'll probably get around to exiting about 13517, when my stop is hit.

I have a first target of 73 in mind. I don't want to exit a winning position sooner than that. Still regretting not holding my earlier short from 88. If I had set SL at 13518 (-30), I would have still been in the trade. Instead I have a new entry from 1 tic worse, a booked loss of 13, and an extra spread of 5.

Whereever I close this new trade, I would be £19 better off if I hadn't covered my last one, and instead covered the last trade where I cover this trade.

lurkerlurker said:
Out +7. That is a cover at 13480 TradIndex bid and 13476 market mid price (otFeed for YMU7)/ Now watch it drop without me. I covered due to lack of momentum, a reluctance to let a profit become a loss, and the fact I could feel myself becoming stressed.

Also, anyone else see the Tick divergence I see on the charts, which supports a rally? I do, and I don't have the pips to spare today to risk that. Cash is king when you are unsure about staying in a trade.

This exit is in accordance with my rules (thought I'd say that now, and don't listen if I say anything else should the market drop 50 points.) The exit was right.

Net -28 for today. (better than net -35, no?)

Oh, following on from my previous post. Covering the 88 short was premature. Covering the 89 short was an okay exit. The "brain fart" trade wasn't too bad, but I exited for the right reasons.

Does this snippet tell you anything. (moderators / site admins - are you going to allow us to post tables anytime soon?)

Open 12/06/2007 16:40 Sell £1 1 13489
Closed 12/06/2007 16:40 Buy £1 1 13502 £-13.00
Open 12/06/2007 17:15 Sell £1 1 13488
Closed 12/06/2007 17:19 Buy £1 1 13495 £-7.00
Open 12/06/2007 17:36 Sell £1 1 13487
Closed 12/06/2007 18:07 Buy £1 1 13480 £7.00

I'm going to be posting on my journal after the market closes. Could I ask you all for help. I need assistance in reviewing each trade today objectively. I will post my entries, exits, reasons for entering and exiting, and thoughts during the trade. I have overtraded today, and not taken good signals. However, I do feel there is some improvement in my trading (I will quantify this improvement later if I can, but I also need people to tell me if I am kidding myself).

There goes the upside break. Thankfully I covered. Did anyone else see that on tick earlier?

I'll post a chart.

lurkerlurker said:
Question. When I saw that Tick divergence and exited the short trade believing a reversal was going to take palce, and ther would be an upside breakout, why did I not reverse? A hight stop below the double bottom at 72 would have been fine from an entry 5 tics higher. With spread, my risk would only have been 10. Reward - rally to resistance, possibly beyond.

Silly me.

lurkerlurker said:
As you can imagine I'm beating myself up for not taking the long signal at 76.

I'm not one for stop and reverse, but Reminiscences of a Stock Operator comes to mind. If you cover a short you are bullish, and if you are bullish you should be long. I covered a short not out of uncertainty but because I saw the bottom and a reversal ahead. Tick confirmed this. Had I gone long.....

lurkerlurker said:
Short 47. Granted it wasn't the best entry there

lurkerlurker said:
Did you hold that? It seems like it is going down from here. A pin bar forming on the 5 minutes.

lurkerlurker said:
Thanks, but I missed a few entries in this upmove by setting cheeky limits, and then I sold it. I've sat through a fast 20 point move against me which reversed just as quick. The market appears to be showing a pin bar, and dare I say that 70 is the top.

I am going off for a break - it is very humid and I am getting a headache. Wondering where I might have the very audacity to place a "take profits" limit.

I can't answer that. Fair is fair, since I have a SL 30 points away from the entry, I might as well have a limit 30 points away. Buy limit duly set at 13517.

I'm off - back later.

lurkerlurker said:
Exit +3. Unsure on short term direction, but it seems to like support at 13540.

Edit - I'm taking crap. I took myself off because I saw my emotions interfering. I couldn't stay away, and I came back and covered. We're going to touch support (13520) within the next 10 minutes.

lurkerlurker said:
I've left a fortune on the table. Would I have risked 30 for 3? No way in hell. I was expecting a drop to support when I shorted. I entered early, but the market soon showed I was right. So why did I cover as soon as it showed me I was right, and why have I not sold again instead of posting here?

OK - it is now too low for me to sell. Looking for another entry in the near future.

Wait - I'll do that after I have that break I keep threatening to take.

Thoughts - long on a bounce of either 100 minute EMA (13525) or support (13520).
Short below that...

lurkerlurker said:
Old buddy just called me out and invited me for a quick after work beer. I'm going. I feel quite bad looking at the chart now - the mid price is 28 currently - nearer my target of 17 than my entry price. I'm annoyed at covering that one out of panic. I was to be taking a break.

Anyways, I'm down -25 from the day, up from an intra-day loss of -35.

Taking into account my profit yesterday (the only trade this week I've had the guts to hold), I'm +£2 for the week so far.

Good to know I've only wasted my time (and I don't see learning as a waste) and not my money this week.

Quick pondering before I have a shower, ****, shave.

I made a few good short calls today. One I exited prematurely at a loss. The short after that was from 1 tic lower and showed me a profit before I made the best cover of the day. Premature exit. My next short was a little early, but my overall market prediction was correct and I allowed it some room, not panicking an exit while it showed me a loss. Then I took +3 when I had a target of at least support. I see it is coming back to my exit again, but I could have squeezed another 10 out of it before even one indicator (volume, price, or tick) showed me a cover signal.

My other good long call I discussed with firewalker and didn't have the guts to take.

I am going to quickly list my trades for today, and leave you with my charts for today. If anyone would like to sift through my posts from today and the entries and exits I have mentioned, combined with my chart pictures, and make comments either to this thread or my journal I would appreciate it.

Most of what would be going in my journal is already on this thread, so I don't feel too bad about breaking my commitment to posting it here for you all immediately after EOD. I need some leisure time, I've not been out for a drink with mates in quite a while, and a nice civilised after work (for them, and I suppose me too) beer would be in order. I've found myself getting quite stressed today, and all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull gboy. All work and no play makes Jacka dull boy. (sorry - couldn't resist)

I bid you all good evening. I hope you have all done well. Most folk who had losing pips have made them up by my calculations. I'd like to trade the last hour, but I needed a break in the middle of the last trade and suspect I am overtrading anyway.

I promise you all some thoughtful ponderings on todays trading early tomorrow morning. Should be no later than 10am, as I need to have lunch, and do my daily premarket from 1pm onwards.

Have a good evening all, and thanks for the comments.

Charts attached. I'm having difficulty being objective about yesterday. Any suggestions?

brutusdog · Jun 13, 2007

hi lurker,

just a thought but looks like your cutting the winners short and letting the losses run

your plan for the day would have worked pretty good, just the sticking to it now...

have a good day today :cheesy:

frugi · Jun 13, 2007

Hi LL ... I don't know if you always have your charts like this but I find it useful, nay essential, to have more than one days' price action visible. So, unless it forms a a specific part of your strategy, I'd dump the time and sales window and expand the 15 min several days into the past. An hourly or 4 hourly chart would do no harm either. Price channels and simle horizontal s/r can carry over for a surprising time. Also the information provided by the 3 & 5 min charts is very similar ... why not save room by plumping for one of the two, or increasing the difference between the fractals e.g 1/5, 2/5 or 3/10? Finally if you are a fan of divergences I'd be inclined to have my Tick on the fastest chart as they are easier to see. Please don't take this as criticism: I had to tinker with my charts for several years before I was happy with them

But it can be useful to criticially examine whether each one serves your needs best and if there is room for refinement and a more economical use of space. Does every element serve a definite purpose.

counter_violent · Jun 13, 2007

Hi Lurker

I've just been over your latest charts....the picture that hits me is the shape of the exhaustion moves...we had some fun a few months back talking about bananas and monkeys....and banana shapes for me is where trading is at...notice price speed up into intraday blow off / exhaustions and anticipate an exit when you see the speed....also simple volume spikes might confirm increased activity......exits firstly on exhaustions....then wait for your entry criteria......i e master One aspect before attempting lets say Stop & Reverse....at all times keep strategy and charts as simple as possible

One thing to try....set up price only charts...maybe volume to confirm exits / entries....abandon all indicators and just see how this looks to you....all indicators after all are derived from price....and thus lag.

cv

lurkerlurker · Jun 13, 2007

brutusdog said:
hi lurker,

just a thought but looks like your cutting the winners short and letting the losses run

your plan for the day would have worked pretty good, just the sticking to it now...

have a good day today :cheesy:

Yeah. Panic exits where there is a profit on the table. I need to listen to what the market is telling me about how much is left in a trade. I will do this by analysis of volume, short term sentiment via Tick (ie does it favour a strong continuation of the move), and S/R levels. Divergences will be used as exit indicators.

Sound like a decent solution?

lurkerlurker · Jun 13, 2007

frugi said:
Hi LL ... I don't know if you always have your charts like this but I find it useful, nay essential, to have more than one days' price action visible. So, unless it forms a a specific part of your strategy, I'd dump the time and sales window and expand the 15 min several days into the past. An hourly or 4 hourly chart would do no harm either. Price channels and simle horizontal s/r can carry over for a surprising time. Also the information provided by the 3 & 5 min charts is very similar ... why not save room by plumping for one of the two, or increasing the difference between the fractals e.g 1/5, 2/5 or 3/10? Finally if you are a fan of divergences I'd be inclined to have my Tick on the fastest chart as they are easier to see. Please don't take this as criticism: I had to tinker with my charts for several years before I was happy with them But it can be useful to criticially examine whether each one serves your needs best and if there is room for refinement and a more economical use of space. Does every element serve a definite purpose.

Hi Frugi. One of the very people who I was hoping dearly would drop into my journal and comment. I've not heard from you in a little while. I was actually expecting a flood of comments....

3/5 minute charts are silly. How does this sound (screen attached). 1 hour OHLC bars, compressed, going back a wee while. 15 min chart for perspective. 5 min chart for RSI (the only indicator I use any more, and the system calls for it), 5 min tick, T&S.

I could use more space. I have to enter orders on my laptop for lack of screen real estate on the dual monitor box.

Thanks for the tips on making more efficient use of space. I also need to remember that because I am spreadbetting I need to keep the trade frequency down and aim for the bigger moves with higher targets. A higher timescale should help with that.

Let me know what you think.

lurkerlurker · Jun 13, 2007

counter_violent said:
Hi Lurker

I've just been over your latest charts....the picture that hits me is the shape of the exhaustion moves...we had some fun a few months back talking about bananas and monkeys....and banana shapes for me is where trading is at...notice price speed up into intraday blow off / exhaustions and anticipate an exit when you see the speed....also simple volume spikes might confirm increased activity......exits firstly on exhaustions....then wait for your entry criteria......i e master One aspect before attempting lets say Stop & Reverse....at all times keep strategy and charts as simple as possible

One thing to try....set up price only charts...maybe volume to confirm exits / entries....abandon all indicators and just see how this looks to you....all indicators after all are derived from price....and thus lag.

cv

Counter_Violent! You were another person I had in mind for some comments. As you said awhile ago, you are sometimes accused of not quite fully explaining or nor giving much away. You remind me of the trader in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator who whimsically comments "well, it is a bull market".

Oh - someone just sold 60 lots of the YM on the bid.

On this occasion however, I think I can infer more from your comments than you actually state. Keeping things as simple as possible is sound advice which I should really try and take into my head.

Remember your comments on V exhaustions and parabolic blow off phases? I found them rather cryptic at the time and couldn't take advantage of the wisdom you had imparted. A few weeks later, I could see it on the charts after it had happened, and knew then exactly what you meant. I'll try and keep the simple in mind.

I've attached a chart in the above post. I am still using two indicators, although if you bear with me I'll explain. I have RSI for confirmation only and don't trade off it. My current rules call for confirmation as provided by RSI. I also use a 100 minute exponential moving average (100/chart size periods). I use this as a general trend indicator, and would feel a little uncomfortable without it. I look to buy above and sell below.

I'm also using Tick, but that not really a traditional indicator. I am coming to rely more on price and volume, with chart patterns. I'll look to exit a long on increased momentum, and wait for downside confirmation before shorting.

I hope I am maturing as a trader and also that I can fully understand and benefit from the advice you have given. You will have some idea of how foolish I felt about V exhaustions and parabolic blow offs two weeks later when I had failed to trade it!

Thank you again.

(oh, and BTW 2 / 3 YM charts on my setup are PV only :cheesy: )

lurkerlurker · Jun 13, 2007

Trading Spreadsheets and Stats

Here are two spreadsheets of my index future trading since I began. Z is intra day FTSE 100 trades, YM is intra day Dow trades.

Summary follows:

YM:

Number of Trades
59

Winning Trades
35

Winning %
0.59

Average Win
9.8

Average Loss
16.54

Trades Per Day
4.21

Pips Per Day
-4.5

Z:

Number of Trades 220

Winning Trades 111

Winning % 0.5

Average Win 5.16

Average Loss 8.81

Trades Per Day 6.29

Pips Per Day -9.12

lurkerlurker · Jun 13, 2007

The System

The time has come to post the system I am trying to use. The system works. I will soon prove positive expectancy with a backtest.

However, I seem to keep trading against the rules of the system. I need to somehow fix this.

System follows.

Strategy for Day Trading the YM

Acknowledgements: ChartMan, ChinaWhite, Stoploss_Please, Skimbleshanks, and other contributors to the ES / YM threads from 2003 / 2004.

Entry Criteria

When price crosses the 100 minute EMA, trade in the direction of the cross subject to confirmation.

Confirmation can be in the form of either a $Tick divergence, or a multi-peak RSI divergence. It is advisable to pay attention to support and resistance levels when deciding whether to take the trade.

OR

Where there is tick divergence combined with price action supported by the chart (S/R, volume, etc) trade in that direction.

Exit Criteria

Profit target or opposing entry signal. Do not stop and reverse.

Money Management

Stops must be in a sensible place. Profit target should be 2x stoploss risk or better. If not, no trade.
Do not exit a trade until there is an opposing signal, the stoploss is hit, or the limit order is hit.

When trading more than £1pp, add on pullbacks to the 100 minute EMA.

Summary

Before taking a trade, confirm the following:

Are you trading in the direction of the trend (100 minute EMA)?
Do you have a solid entry in the form of either tick div or EMA/Price cross?
Is this entry confirmed by divs, S/R, chart pattern?
Where is the best place for the stop? How much risk?
Where is a reasonable profit target? How much potential reward?

Simple enough?

Comments welcome.

lurkerlurker · Jun 13, 2007

barjon said:
me again

QUOTE: Money Management

Stops must be in a sensible place. Profit target should be 2x stoploss risk or better. If not, no trade.
Do not exit a trade until there is an opposing signal, the stoploss is hit, or the limit order is hit.

When trading more than £1pp, add on pullbacks to the 100 minute EMA.

Summary

Before taking a trade, confirm the following:

Are you trading in the direction of the trend (100 minute EMA)?
Do you have a solid entry in the form of either tick div or EMA/Price cross?
Is this entry confirmed by divs, S/R, chart pattern?
Where is the best place for the stop? How much risk?
Where is a reasonable profit target? How much potential reward?

imo profit targets via the charting landscape are a bit illusory. Better, in my view, to work from your natural stop.

Where is the best place for the stop - ie: at what point will I know it's a wrong 'un. If that's within your risk parameters then continue below; if not, no trade.

Therefore, I want 2 x stop out of the trade. Is there anything on the landscape that will obviously inhibit that - S/R etc. If yes, no trade.

cheers

jon

Excellent point. Will change that now. Profit to be 2x stop, and no trade if that isn't reasonable. Where profit can be 3x stop safely, this should be done instead.

lurkerlurker · Jun 13, 2007

Today's Signals

Here are the signals the system generated for trading the YM today. Note that some of these were posted real time to the Dow thread. Note further that I never got a limit fill on the really nice ones.

As a contrast, also attached are my actual trades for the day.

firewalker99 · Jun 13, 2007

The Process: Part 2

lurkerlurker said:
Excellent point. Will change that now. Profit to be 2x stop, and no trade if that isn't reasonable. Where profit can be 3x stop safely, this should be done instead.

However, you will never know in real time whether the profit of a trade can be 3x the stop size or not. Perhaps it will travel in the right direction for 5 times as far as usually, or it will travel 3x as far, then retrace half of the move and then continue to as far as 7 times the stop!

If you want to analyze your system thorougly you need to determine - for each trade - how far the market goes in the right direction after you entered it, before turning back towards your entry. Then you plot this into frequency diagrams. Then you make statistics. You get results, e.g.: 90% of my winning trades travel on average 10 points. 60% travel 15 points and 33% travel 40 points. (These are cumulative percentages).

Then you need to decide what to do next:

1) Will you exit the trade when you feel the market has moved enough in your favour without a fixed target? Then you will need to have strict rules about what action (price or any other indicator) you'd be looking for to exit. Making up for the loss of a previous trade is not a valid reason.

2) Will you exit at the minimum price level where most of your winning trades go to (in my example 10 points)? Hence taking no gambles, but leaving in a big number of trades (one third) a lot of points on the table.

3) Will I scale out or not?

4) Will I move my stop after a certain price level, and trail the price or leave the stop at a fixed price and set a limit order for targets?

5) What risk:reward do I need on average to maintain profit in the end with my current win ratio (of xx,xx %)

You see... a lot questions that won't be solved easily. They require a lot of testing, papertrading, annotating, reviewing and analzying. I've copied this post to the thread about Exits (http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=25049) because now that I finished typing it, it seems it has a lot to do about that too...

firewalker99 · Jun 13, 2007

lurkerlurker said:
YM:
Number of Trades 59
Winning Trades 35
Winning % 0.59
Average Win 9.8
Average Loss 16.54

I've removed some of the blanks in your post.
So let me put things in perspective:

YM: win ratio of 59%. Leaving out commissions you made (35 x 9.8) - (24 x 16.54) = -53.96 points. So you would've only lost 54 points in 14 days? I think that's already better than you're doing now. Obviousy, losing points isn't the purpose, but I'm pretty sure that with rigid stop & target rules you can do a lot better. I would suggest starting to find a decent (close and tight) stop and skipping the trades that are too far away for a safe entry.

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