Half Life
When and if Jon does amalgamate these WHN threads, this post I'm currently making will be a victim of the surgeon's scalpel, but for now, I think it's appropriate - or I wouldn't be taking the trouble to post it - obviously.
Jon's series of WHN has drawn some extraordinary responses. Both in terms of clear evidence of trading knowledge and expertise in some and strangely, given the obvious positive intent and superficial benefits of that intent, some very strong back-and-forth on issues quite unrelated to the primary 'exercise' from others. I have had a PM exchange with Jon on this aspect of his threads on how the most innocuous and obvious topic (a chart and wot next?) can develop some very strong discourse along a wider range outside the central theme. It was clearly a puzzle to us both. And then the answer came to me as I read this last tranche of posts this morning.
The reason this series of threads evoke such passion is that they cut right to the heart of what trading is really all about.
The ability to determine - not necessarily with a higher then 50/50 degree of probability what will most likely happen next - just
the ability to determine. And I'm sure it flusters some that they haven't been able to 'do' it. But not those learning. They have no 'issue' if they find themselves unable to attempt it or to attempt it and 'fail'. They are just soaking up the posts that do provide empirical, definitive and explicit assessment of other traders' rationale and their thinking. Including those who elect to stay out of assessment for lack of specific additional information. Regardless of the correctness of those assessments that do hazard a reasonably explicated view, the thinking that has gone on behind the assessment is the real value here. Right or wrong. All those who assess or choose not to assess provide genuine insights - when provided along with their thinking. The quiet ones are the ones who are learning and staying quiet precisely so they can continue to learn the craft. And if you put yourself outside of that class in the last sentence you need to go back to school yourself.
The ones that are really suffering are those that 'thought' they could trade or pretend they can and now, faced with the 'challenge' of proving it - if only to themselves in the privacy of their own bonce - fall short and feel bad. These are not characteristics of consistently successful traders and if you're feeling this way, you're either having a bad day or you need to address the underlying basis for feeling that way. There's no need to. Not caring is important.
Those that explain why it's going to tank and give you the technical basis for their view are right. Regardless of the eventual outcome. Those that consider it will head North along with the basis for their considerations are right. Regardless of the outcome. Those that feel there is a higher probability of short-term oscillation along with the reasons for their thinking are right. Regardless of the outcome. Those that elect not to make any assessment based on the lack of one or more pieces of information are right. Period. They'll never take an ill-considered trade. (There may be some of them in that last set that will
never take any trade, but that's a separate issue).
It's precisely the basis for the difference in views that provides the market for us to trade. Been said before I know. They are all valid perspectives.
The rightness or wrongness of those who assess is not key. Over the long run with correct money management you can make a living with a 50/50 hit rate
The real value is in the thinking of the various bods that post - yes, ALL of them (yes, yes, even THAT one!).
Jon, you've either accidentally stumbled on a topic that's going to bring a lot of people to a higher level of trading (or perhaps a higher level of thinking?) or you're a deliberately self-disguised genius trying to nurture your flock to trading excellence.
And before anyone asks...
.... I wouldn't have been long from the big black line myself, but if I was advising anyone who had been long from that black line what to do:-
1. I'd ask them to explain what their exit strategy was when they went into the trade and if it was still in place. If they had ignored it or broken it - I'd tell them to stick to their trade strat at all times and exit now as a discipline. Regardless.
2. If their exit start was still unbreached I'd ask them if this particular trading strat had been producing overall profits. If it hadn't I'd suggest they ditch the strat and develop another strat. And exit now - as a kindness.
3. If their strat was a sound one and no stop had been breached or ignored I would suggest they stick with their trade.
