Wot next? : Trade Management

[barjon]

I'm going to try a variation on the old Wot Happened Next? threads, but I hope it doesn't fall into the same disarray as those.

This time it's about trade management - it doesn't really matter if you recognise the instrument but try not to track it down - and how one goes about doing that as the story unfolds. It doesn't matter whether you agree with the entry tactics or not - just take it that you're in and have to manage it from there.

Right, the scenario is that this instrument has been in downtrend for some time but you like the apparently strong upward move that takes the price above the last swing high resistance level (which itself stalled at the level of nine candles earlier). You resolve to buy any pullback and enter at 292 (white line) with a stoploss at 272 (black line).

The price progresses and then prints a shooting star - the last candle.

So how's your thinking? Gonna take your profit and run, or part of it, lift your stop (to where), set any limit targets, or what.

Over to you - Wot Next?

Wot Next?

 

[evostik]

Hi Barjon

Haven't got a clue. Can we have the futs chart for the same period please?

Cheers

Steve

 

[jacinto]

got no clue what is the instrument....

what is the time frame? can we get a smaller and a larger time frame please

j

 

[barjon]

Sorry guys, this is all you've got :cheesy: it's daily and I've trawled back a bit to get it.

Appreciate the thought that the wider context is pertinent and that you might want to use a lower timeframe to fine tune. However, you can still use what you've got to advance your thoughts - I hope

good trading

jon

 

[laptop1]

The chart shows strength to me I would buy 25% below the high of shooting star bar if filled..........

 

[jacinto]

then i hope you are long and looking for an exit at around 400-420

 

[barjon]

The chart shows strength to me I would buy 25% below the high of shooting star bar if filled..........

laptop

you're already filled at 292 :cheesy: (see first post) so this is about managing that trade.

good trading

jon

 

[chump]

Jon,
I've already taken half as you hit my limit to sell with your "star" and my stop for the other half is under the low second candle back so I'm happy to fill the gap and see what happens next....trade to nothing now.

by the way Jon ...great idea for a thread....the best few words I ever paid for were "just manage the trade" ...much underexplored part of trading where so many people prefer to concentrate on entries...

 

[rossored]

Move stop to @320 and see what happens next Either the next run down takes out the stop and I'm out for a small profit, or she trades north and evaluate from there. That shooting star is on relatively low volume compared to some of the preceding bars - most of the volume seems to be on the buy side - so maybe not too much weight behind it. Certainly going back a few barrs there's huge buy volume at a not-so-dissimilar price level...

 

[Trader333]

There is a good chance that the gap up will be filled especially as this was not accompanied by an increase in volume. As it has not been stated what position size is on this trade I will presume that I would be able to close half my position at this point and set my stop to close the whole position at round about the 300 mark. There is a large amount of previous congestion at this price so a break down back though it with an increase in volume would signal to me that a reversal is possible and I would wish to be out. However, anything is possible in trading so I would react on what I saw but be ready for it.


Paul

 

[TheBramble]

The swing high that attracted you into this trade was on low volume with extraordinary range. Somebody was trying to get you to buy. You did. It also took out most of the weak shorts who bought to cover, hence the highest high volume in sight on the bar following the previous swing high breach.

The subsequent muted down move met with either indifferent professional interest or was a test for floating supply, either way, some buying volume comes into the picture at the level you’re using as a stop loss. For what purpose? It could be to ramp up prices just a little further before the next major down move or a genuine commencement of an accumulation phase.

The gap up on relatively insignificant volume, the narrow range of the gap up bar and the close toward the bottom of the range indicate it’s more likely a dummy than real and although I wouldn’t be in this trade in the first place, if I woke up and found I was, I’d be exiting the entire position right now.

Worst case if I’m wrong, I miss out on the start of an up move and get in a little higher up.

Jon, good luck with this, but I don't think you're going to flush out the fox...

 

[TheBramble]

Forgot to add my support for those that suggested a higher and lower timeframe would be useful as would for me be the context of the overall sector, market and X-market behaviours. Taken in isolation, any analysis of this chart will be fuzzy at best.

 

[barjon]

Right, let's move things on a bit.

This chart shows how the price action developed. I have extended the red swing high resistance line back and forth since several have commented on the trading activity at around that level + and -.

Some of you have taken profits by now or been stopped out at break even and better. A couple have taken some profit off the table and are still running with remainder.

So, having reached this position wot next? Will those that are still running - whether you've posted yet or not - cash in at this stage? Or lift their stops - to where and why?

For those who have cashed in, what would you advise the remaining runners to do?

good trading

jon

 

[barjon]

ps: Sorry to those who want higher and lower time frames. I agree they are pertinent - not available tho' I'm afraid.

To those who might be out but looking for re-entry - tempted yet?

jon

 

[jacinto]

ps: Sorry to those who want higher and lower time frames. I agree they are pertinent - not available tho' I'm afraid.

To those who might be out but looking for re-entry - tempted yet?

jon

some of us are still in and looking to exit 400-420

then i hope you are long and looking for an exit at around 400-420

its ok jon. kind of looks like the time to move the stop to BE......unlike my own stop management.

 

[barjon]

some of us are still in and looking to exit 400-420

oops - sorry jac

 

[jacinto]

oops - sorry jac

jon

actually, can my stop be moved to below the blue line...(i.e. just below 320)

thanks

j

 

[Priceman]

Ok I've been helped with this but here's my take. Stop needs to be below 300. Target is 450.

 

[chump]

TM Phase 2

Jmtt (just managing the trade)
I'll keep it short I have no idea where this is going and I don't have to know to make money. I trade from point to point getting to a point where the trade is to nothing and then making sure it's got lot's of room to breath (run) because on aggregate the way it will range/trend will (70/30) is designed to catch all those people who feel the need to have so called technical stops which are too close .

 

[TheBramble]

The higher highs and higher lows are compacting: occurring closer and closer together in time and there is lack of genuine support even though we are seeing what amounts to the apparent commencement of an up trend. If there is lack of professional (TBD) interest in this instrument (and I think to a large extent that is currently the case for the snapshot timeframe we are being given by Jon) it will drift sideways for a dozen bars or so.

If there is pro interest (TBD) and it’s being well managed the short term implied underlying weakness could lead to a retracement of minor importance, certainly too minor for me to want to trade (target the close of the gap bar approx 335?). You could have a shot at a quick short to that level with a stop at the close of the last bar shown, but there seems to be too little in it R:R wise to warrant the exposure. On the wider angle, if the weakness in being professionally (TBD) managed (accumulation) then a longer term bullish bias is warranted. How do we tell which it is?

Any retrace below the strong Support at 310 (ish) would signify genuine weakness and a potential to revisit the previous lowest lows shown. However, the formation of a fourth higher high (after the 3rd lower low about to form – I think) would indicate underlying support into the mark up phase to well above highest levels currently shown.

Note to All: I'm getting significant mentoring at this point and it is to equally significant extent and as a by-product of the process, altering the way I’m viewing this specific trading exercise. Although all of the above is genuinely my current position, it would be unfair of me to continue to comment and participate as I am sure I’m unconsciously already having my trading worldview modified to the extent that stuff is slipping in under the radar without my active knowledge or awareness and to inadvertently pass it off as my own work until I have so fully inculcated it, it has become so, would be wholly inappropriate - so I'll bow out of this thread for now.

Jon, these threads have always been one of the best devices this site has ever seen in developing trader and trading awareness, and not just in trading. It is unfortunately a matter of record that they turned into something less than pristine and that is, as always, a real shame, but in other ways, rather underlines the differences that make the difference. Which is what, after all, we all ultimately trade in any event.

Please keep them coming and I will join in in future exercises.