Why in the world should TA work ?!

[Fugazsy]

Pattern and TA are tools not an edge.

The edge is created when other factors (many) are combined together with patterns and TA.

 

[malaguti]

Pattern and TA are tools not an edge.

The edge is created when other factors (many) are combined together with patterns and TA.

they are all an edge in my opinion
the pattern is an edge, the entry, the stop, the exit, the market conditons you use as a filter
each facet can be improved upon to increase that edge

however as you say, until they are combined into your overall strategy, they are just individual pieces that could be meaningless to one person but the starting point of a great strategy for someone else.
we all look at things differently, why we are all so unique

 

[tomorton]

Depends on how old the older books are. Schabacker, who started all this, wrote

When we become quite familiar with stock charts we shall find ourselves looking for various pictures and patterns formed by our charts, but if we are to be complete masters of our study and get the fullest benefits from our own analysis it is important that we do not entirely lose sight of the fundamental basis for the formation of those pictures and patterns.

That fundamental basis is in actual stock market trading, and actual stock market trading is the result of individual actions by many thousands of people, based in turn upon their own hopes, fears, anticipations, knowledge or lack of knowledge, necessities and plans. It is the danger of losing sight of this human element in stock charts that we must guard against, and since this human element is basic it may be wise to fit it into the foundations of our study at the very outset. (1933)​

By old I only mean the 60's-90's, that's when most of the books regarded as standards for newbie traders were first written. Everyone has heard of at least some of the pre-war authors but nobody starting trading since the 90's tech bubble turned first to that stuff to find out how to trade.

 

[dbphoenix]

By old I only mean the 60's-90's, that's when most of the books regarded as standards for newbie traders were first written. Everyone has heard of at least some of the pre-war authors but nobody starting trading since the 90's tech bubble turned first to that stuff to find out how to trade.

That may be true, but it all originated in the 20s and 30s, at least in terms of P&F and patterns. Everything since has been, shall we say, "borrowed", and almost never with attribution. If beginners were to go to the source, they'd likely be less confused.

 

[Fugazsy]

I came to the conclusion that there is always a pattern even if we cannot see them, but if we carefully look they are there and most probably in a smaller time frame,and especially if we shift a bit our perception on how to view a specif pattern (for example a trend bar followed by a pause bar for me is a flag pattern).

Anyway getting lost in nomenclatures does not create a better edge for me, to me an edge is my system and are a combination of many factors including patterns.

I predominantly use technicality to weight anything from market conditions to simple candle formations.

I would not know how to trade without it.

 

[lolo55]

Here's my final conclusion. But first I'd like to thank you all. Really appreciated!

The " If it is good to be true, it's probably is" or " it can't be that simple, you moron! " Mentality is the root of all failures, for me at least. Here is why; because everyone must start somewhere, you just can't start big although you must be big to win!. Going lean is the only way to make it. You need to read, learn, ask others, do the math, think but at the end you must only follow your heart, make a hypothesis, a reference or starting point, it doesn't matter how stupid or lacking it is, all what maters is what you believe most. Yes you will fail a lot but you must figure it out at the end. All you need to do is to keep trying, adjust and make modifications when things don't work. but first you must start somewhere and jump with both feet, you just can't know until you try. I keep thinking and thinking and never reached a firm conclusion where is the truth!. If it seems too good to be true, most of the time it is probably is. but there are very few situations where it is not the case , and you can never know which is which until you try, even if you didn't reach from 1st trail you will get some clues that get you closer to the right answers.Trust what you see not what others say or what your mind tell you. If you believe in trend following go and try it, if it didn't work, then find out what is missing and try again maybe the concept is fundamentally flawed, or maybe it require fine adjustment you will know what to do when you are there, but first you have to begin somewhere.
To win in this game you must have an edge, but to find an edge you got to check your big brain at the door and jump! That's pretty much it!

 

[Fugazsy]

Here's my final conclusion. But first I'd like to thank you all. Really appreciated!

The " If it is good to be true, it's probably is" or " it can't be that simple, you moron! " Mentality is the root of all failures, for me at least. Here is why; because everyone must start somewhere, you just can't start big although you must be big to win!. Going lean is the only way to make it. You need to read, learn, ask others, do the math, think but at the end you must only follow your heart, make a hypothesis, a reference or starting point, it doesn't matter how stupid or lacking it is, all what maters is what you believe most. Yes you will fail a lot but you must figure it out at the end. All you need to do is to keep trying, adjust and make modifications when things don't work. but first you must start somewhere and jump with both feet, you just can't know until you try. I keep thinking and thinking and never reached a firm conclusion where is the truth!. If it seems too good to be true, most of the time it is probably is. but there are very few situations where it is not the case , and you can never know which is which until you try, even if you didn't reach from 1st trail you will get some clues that get you closer to the right answers.Trust what you see not what others say or what your mind tell you. If you believe in trend following go and try it, if it didn't work, then find out what is missing and try again maybe the concept is fundamentally flawed, or maybe it require fine adjustment you will know what to do when you are there, but first you have to begin somewhere.
To win in this game you must have an edge, but to find an edge you got to check your big brain at the door and jump! That's pretty much it!

Good post.

I give a small piece of information.....maybe it will safe you a couple of years....Greater edges sits in following the trend especially when there is momentum....here patterns to get in are more reliable....if you are not to late they will travel for another while.......you are following the market movers.

As you said make sure this style suits your personality, it is essential.

How do you determine trend and momentum? With technicality.

Which technicality in particular? That is up to you to find out what will make sense to you.

I hope this post with all the others will help a bit.

 

[joseph1986]

It's far more lucrative to know when your technicals or any pattern recognition will fail rather than actually trying to figure out or predict when or what will happen.
Oh yeah, any price you see is extremely manipulated it's far more lucrative to work with techincals that use transformed data (square root, log, distribution etc). I can prove that the markets are more worried about you discovering the holy grail of predictions instead of reflecting the economy itself with two recent dates, 11/07/2016 and 12/05/2016. Feel free to discard anything I'm saying....you'll eventually discover the whole thing is a wonderful sham that can be harnessed....some days

 

[joseph1986]

Good post.

I give a small piece of information.....maybe it will safe you a couple of years....Greater edges sits in following the trend especially when there is momentum....here patterns to get in are more reliable....if you are not to late they will travel for another while.......you are following the market movers.

As you said make sure this style suits your personality, it is essential.

How do you determine trend and momentum? With technicality.

Which technicality in particular? That is up to you to find out what will make sense to you.

I hope this post with all the others will help a bit.

Momentum is only useful when you know the correct time frames, all markets are based off of dynamic changes to the RELEVANT time frame which cannot be known unless prices are actually giving answers through volatility....something that we have been lacking.

 

[joseph1986]

in simple terms if you use a moving average that includes pretrump win through early january......thanks for the donation you can have 12/12/2016 as a gift

 

[barjon]

Here's my final conclusion. But first I'd like to thank you all. Really appreciated!

The " If it is good to be true, it's probably is" or " it can't be that simple, you moron! " Mentality is the root of all failures, for me at least. Here is why; because everyone must start somewhere, you just can't start big although you must be big to win!. Going lean is the only way to make it. You need to read, learn, ask others, do the math, think but at the end you must only follow your heart, make a hypothesis, a reference or starting point, it doesn't matter how stupid or lacking it is, all what maters is what you believe most. Yes you will fail a lot but you must figure it out at the end. All you need to do is to keep trying, adjust and make modifications when things don't work. but first you must start somewhere and jump with both feet, you just can't know until you try. I keep thinking and thinking and never reached a firm conclusion where is the truth!. If it seems too good to be true, most of the time it is probably is. but there are very few situations where it is not the case , and you can never know which is which until you try, even if you didn't reach from 1st trail you will get some clues that get you closer to the right answers.Trust what you see not what others say or what your mind tell you. If you believe in trend following go and try it, if it didn't work, then find out what is missing and try again maybe the concept is fundamentally flawed, or maybe it require fine adjustment you will know what to do when you are there, but first you have to begin somewhere.
To win in this game you must have an edge, but to find an edge you got to check your big brain at the door and jump! That's pretty much it!

Yes and as you go through all that you are quite likely to discover that the edge you seek is in you and not within your chart patterns.

TA gives you some reason for entering a trade but it's what you do from there that matters more and where your edge develops commensurate with your skill in managing that trade.

 

[dbphoenix]

An old and familiar argument. One's edge is "the knowledge you gain through your research and testing that a particular market behavior offers a level of predictability that provides a consistently profitable outcome over time". Trade management, risk assessment, discipline, etc, etc are necessary components, but they do not constitute an edge any more than lucky socks.

Too many (most) beginners believe that all they have to do is be "disciplined" and "focused" and "keep trying" and eventually they will succeed. The fact that their trading plan, if any, leaks like a sieve never enters into the equation.

Jumping in with both feet and hoping for the best is not a recipe for success. But preventing beginning traders from throwing away their money is a near impossibility. Witness nearly all of the journals, here and elsewhere.