What do you use?

[Salty Gibbon]

Or one of these :-

 

[LION63]

Fundamental Analysis is only for the very patient and will very rarely work for the Day Trader. Real value cannot be determined by charts and unless I am corrected, Technical Traders are not interested in 'value' but concentrate on price movement both current and potential as implied by a chart.

Ducatti recently started a thread on General Motors and gave more than enough in depth analysis on the company. This was at the time that every Technical Trader was shorting the stock. Within a few weeks, up pops Kirk Kerkorian and the shares soar as the bears run for the exits like rats deserting a sinking ship. One for the Fundamental Traders.

Bulldozer started a thread on Biogen and Elan, two biotech firms that had fallen on hard times. They had been shot to pieces and no Technical Trader would have even considered buying the shares. The options (Elan) have since returned in excess of 150% and rising and even the shares of Elan have risen close to 200%. Another one for the Fundamental Traders.

That said, I have nothing against Technical Analysis or its proponents, most of the best contributors on these boards are Technical Traders and they are very good at what they do. Unfortunately, there are some people that resort to using seemingly absurd strategies based on Lunar Cycles etc.; they tend to discredit the REAL EXPONENTS of what is a very serious discipline.

 

[SOCRATES]

Lion, and don't forget to mention Astrology.<TIC>.

 

[SOCRATES]

The merits of Fundamental Analysis are not to be decried, but they have limitations.
In my view Fundmental Analysis is suited to investing and long term holding.
You cannot analyse the supply / demand shifts in a particular security or instrument via FA.
This is because the supply / demand function, which is what drives prices up and down is
not related to the fundamentals in the short and medium term.
But TA, in the right hands, is suited to very very short term, short term, medium term and long term techniques. It is both suitable for both trading and investing.

 

[roguetrader]

One for the Fundamental Traders.

Agree with your post generally, though I would not say Ducati's trade could be used as an advert for fundamental analyisis, the unfolding of events in that particular trade were simply news driven, the right news at the right time. I'm sure Ducati would agree this was not the way the trade was planned from a fundamental perspective. In fact to a degree Mr Kirkorean spoiled what would have been a very interesting trade to watch.I for one would have been interested in watching his reasonings and interpretations of a fundamental trader.

As a technical trader value is of no concern to me. As I see it, there is room in the market place for all sorts of approaches, it is simply a case of appying the most suitable approach at the appropriate time

 

[LION63]

Roguetrader,

You are spot on. All I am saying is that based on his fundamental analysis, he determined that General Motors was below fair value and sooner or later, others would perceive the same. Kerkeroian also spotted value and that is why he bought a larger stake. I would be a looney to imply that Ducatti saw this coming and as you have said, in a way it might have spoilt things for him but produced a reasonable return in a short period (not bad). The essence of fundamental analysis is to ascertain fair value before others do.

Technical Traders like yourself stick to what you do because you believe in it and it works for you, that is a trait to be admired and respected. We can all compete/operate in the markets with very diverse strategies.

 

[roguetrader]

h

All I am saying is that based on his fundamental analysis, he determined that General Motors was below fair value and sooner or later, others would perceive the same. Kerkeroian also spotted value and that is why he bought a larger stake.

Fair comment Lion, and a point well worth making.

 

[the blades]

I am going to continue to tease you rotten as you deserve by telling you everything except what you obviously deperately need.

Ha ! Ha ! Ha !

You misunderstand Socrates. I neither think that you have anything to offer, nor would value any of it if you did. You have proved conclusively that you're nothing more than a figure of fun.

I just wish you would find another home for your eternal waffle. I'm here to learn, you are here to massage an ego that your own abilities obviously fail to.

As the years go by, I've come to realise that basic tools and a lot of discipline can give up some nice profits. Only you can answer what mystical b""""""t provide. But I, and it seems a growing band, are simply bored of your endless nonsense.

UTB

 

[Salty Gibbon]

Now you're in the sh1t mate.

Old Soc's gonna come after you big time. If I were you I would be trembling and sh1tting conkers.

 

[clylbw]

clylbw, many of the "experts" who appear on the financialmedia are fund managers, they make their living from having people invest in their funds, therefore it is not in their interest to tell the public that the markets are going to go down, otherwise Joe Public will keep his money in the bank until next year, so they say things like "this is just a soft patch, we expect a strong second half to the year" keeps the punters happy.

Many thanks roguetrader; now I understand the point.

 

[SOCRATES]

You misunderstand Socrates. I neither think that you have anything to offer, nor would value any of it if you did. You have proved conclusively that you're nothing more than a figure of fun.

I just wish you would find another home for your eternal waffle. I'm here to learn, you are here to massage an ego that your own abilities obviously fail to.

As the years go by, I've come to realise that basic tools and a lot of discipline can give up some nice profits. Only you can answer what mystical b""""""t provide. But I, and it seems a growing band, are simply bored of your endless nonsense.

UTB

Yes, as it happens, you belong to that particular class of person whose society can raise no other emotion but surprise, at your persistence with what is quite obviously for you a futille mission and clearly beyond your remit.

This is because additional to your persistence and notwithstanding your compulsive rudeness and ineptitude, one has to concede that in your case you cannot learn and you cannot be taught.

I am not teaching you anything as I come to recognise you repeatedly overlook the significance of the obvious.

If you are not able to recognise what is obvious, then you ought not to be trading or attempting to trade at all, or to haunt these boards and inflict your serial nuisances.

For my part, I am not willing under any circumstances whatsoever, to render you any help or guidance of any sort, as I am tired of having to struggle with dunces.

 

[DaveJB]

I'm going to do 2 good things in my life.....
1 - I'm going to tell people to go read the 1-2-3 thread, because if you spend looking at trading 1-2-3 (no extras, no 'traders trick' etc) you'll pick up a huge insight after very little effort... this really is a simple idea that helps you get your 'excrement in one foot covering' (sh** in one sock is another way to put it)...

2 - don't argue. It's pointless. Sometimes people are genuinely on a different level to yourself - it's like your terminology and theirs is different. And what does it matter anyhow? Look on the bright side - if Joe is a moron who buys stocks 'cos Aquarius is rising great... YOU make money by buying when dumb people sell, and by shorting when dumb people buy.... how cool is that? You WANT people to do dumb things, trust me!

Dave
PS - I 'd lijke to pass on a big thanks to all the people who shorted Dell today, sorry yesterday, and a real big thanks to all the people who were long on Disney over the past week or two - we met briefly in passing, to my advantage <g> Oh, and a BIG thanks to anyone involved in spiking HON up so much a forthnight or so back, boy did I enjoy shorting that one at the top.

 

[DaveJB]

Bulldozer started a thread on Biogen and Elan, two biotech firms that had fallen on hard times. They had been shot to pieces and no Technical Trader would have even considered buying the shares.

Sorry,
and definitely late to the party, but incorrect.
Apart from the obvious reply - a Tech Analysts will always find some MA of an Oscillator to detrend that proves conclsively that both were stonking buys, but even fairly simple ideas like the 'Dead Cat Bounce' come into play here... as ever you simply have to massage the time axis appropriately.

Perhaps more to the point (or even wider, depending on the viewpoint) is this.... I've watched these from a purely TA position for some time, and simply found better, higher probability shares to trade. You should not get hung up on specific shares - it is the trading opportunity that matters, completely, not that you eventually manage to fit a predetermined share into an 'almost fits' box.

Dave

 

[frugi]

I've split the silly bit of this thread into The Foyer under the name of "Investment Pains"