Trading the Gaps

[robster970]

ilir - why did you take the trade today if you knew that china had said they were the engine behind the world economy at the weekend?

 

[ilir.shkurti]

Rob, I wish I had an answer that would logically and neatly explain. I counted on some initial adjustment of optimism at the open. Technically, gap looked sound, though this being a Monday. We were at absolute price highs (generally speaking), and I felt a sobering up of trader sentiment in the market. I fully expected the price to take off on the upside after a minor retraction down though.

In the end, what did it for me is the many times I have kicked myself for not taking a trade in similar conditions. I wish I could say I counted on predictable moves. As I write this, I am agitated both from the thrill of a good trade, the regret of not letting at least a contract run further down, as well as how this could have easily been a runaway gap and I could have been stopped. The interchanging predictability and unpredictability of the market humble me.

 

[robster970]

Rob, I wish I had an answer that would logically and neatly explain. I counted on some initial adjustment of optimism at the open. Technically, gap looked sound, though this being a Monday. We were at absolute price highs (generally speaking), and I felt a sobering up of trader sentiment in the market. I fully expected the price to take off on the upside after a minor retraction down though.

A lot of gap trading for me is 'gut' too. I had not considered the extent of profit taking that might have occurred because of it hovering at the high so I think your call was excellent in that regard.

BTW - I think levels to watch are 1160 and 1200, 1160 being the weekly 200EMA which seems to have unusual powers and 1200 because it is significant in support in 2008, 2007, etc.

We're just on a bull run right now, December figures will probably be good; Fed keep 3tr USD in circulation; crazy world.

WRT predicting and not predicting, well, we never really know do we. All we can do is manage what is in our control.

 

[ilir.shkurti]

Long 34.25

 

[ranjha]

its a big gap do you think market will make it
??

 

[ranjha]

what are your targets and where is your stop ilir?

 

[ilir.shkurti]

First target hit 36.25

 

[robster970]

I'm not playing today. Too big.

There was strong support around 32 last week so would not be suprised if the big gap filled today even though it is huge.

 

[ranjha]

ok so you are nto waiting for th e Gap to be filled ?? which is long way up

 

[ilir.shkurti]

Second half of position stopped at entry.

 

[ilir.shkurti]

Ranjha - Targets are 2 and 3.25 points. Stop is 3 and entry.
Robster - Though gap may end up filling, I plan on not sticking around to it usually. Gap game is over for me today, I think. Size is too big to fade straight out.

 

[robster970]

Took 1pt today. Came into the market a little later than usual as I let the little rally push the price up a little.......unusual for me to do that.

 

[ilir.shkurti]

I missed my entry today at 37, and did not trade (my rules forbid that I trade angry or irritated ). Thus, I missed the chance to play in what was a very easy gap setup. I did however jump in long at 10:23am at 1130, and rode my full position for two points. I did not post this trade here, nor in my tracking spreadsheet, as it was not gap related.

 

[ranjha]

are you guys getting in today for GAP but news keep coming bad

 

[ilir.shkurti]

Long 40

 

[ranjha]

what are your targets?

 

[ilir.shkurti]

First target hit at 42

 

[ilir.shkurti]

Second target stopped one point in the money

 

[ranjha]

thats nice you ar done for the day

 

[ilir.shkurti]

With the gap, I am done, correct.