Trading Systems - Do they Work?

whoops,...I thought you meant it was ,..too nasty,...shucks me and my communication skills,..dang!
 
Hilarymannah said:
Hilarious,..Meany,.Nasty and Smarty,......quite the gang we're building !
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:LOL: Henceforth, thou shalt be known as Hilarious :)


But seriously though folks:

Can mechanical systems work?

Well, backtracking a minute, someone posted links to 3 funds that were suggested to be using mechanical systems.

Well, and I had a similar argument with BSD, I don't think anyone outside those funds really, really knows how they are traded, so I think that line of argument is ultimately fruitless. Also of course, their systems (if any) are not going to be the ones you see aimed at gullible newbies which is I think what the OP had in mind in post #1.



I have of course read about the Turtles and trend-trading (look at my profile). As it happens I haven't read Curtis Faith's book(s), although I mean to. Someone recommended to me his book about trading from the gut, which sounded interesting.

Clearly, trend-trading, done correctly, can work, and following mechanical rules to do it can work, but it clearly has limitations, such as sideways markets and whipsaws.

And as people have said, ultimately, it is the trader who counts, and not the system that counts.
 
Hilarymannah said:
As Nasty, stated,.....It's never the system,. it's always the trader.
Bit like telling someone there is a God out there ,....it's not until it's drummed into them repetitively for years,..only then,. they start to believe (have faith).

For example: If I developed a system, through years of study,..my faith in it is based on my extensive experience.
Try and pass that over in a box!,.and cultivate the same results. (very difficult).
BTW: It takes the training of the mind through constant repetition, to develop any worthwhile skill,..so there are no real shortcuts,..IMO
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This bit..:cool:
 
I recommend you look at PIA -First.

They provide daily recommendations on currencies and indices. They do not sell software, you subscribe to their daily recommedndations and they update you through the morning. They recommend the 7.00 am and close out at 1.00 pm, and they update you through the morning.

I've been tracking them and it does work.

Good luck
 
pboyles said:
It seems there are no shortcuts, you just have to learn to trade yourself. I can only say that what benefited me was learning price action from the james16 chart thread on forexfactory. You are looking at months or years to get to the stage of being consistently profitable. The main problem is not finding a system that works, its actually trading that system without making mistakes and breaking your own rules.
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Market is dynamic and changes its shape and structure.No mechanical system will work forever,unless it is dynamic and self adapts with the Black Swan scenario.


http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex-strategies-systems/34924-inside-bar-trading-6.html#post1066632

TraderNumber7 said:
Does it work consistently enough to produce routine profits long-term? That's the question and the answer is not always yes.

Principle #1:

In order to profit, price must continue along the path of expectation for a pre-designated distance.

Principle #2:

The Trader him/her self is the only one qualified to determine (for themselves) what is profitable to THEM.

Principle #3:

The Trader is wise, when FIRST build a Revenue Model and THEN wrap their trading system/methodology around that Model. Why? Because if the market you are contemplating cannot produce the revenue necessary to satisfy YOUR specific economic goals, then you are wasting your time and spinning your wheels.



The author writes:

(paraphrasing) "If IB is present AND Trend is Long, Enter Long on BO."

Well, the problem is that the underlying qualifier is something that in reality, does not exist. When one forum member in this thread said: Define Trend? - people jumped down his throat. Well, guess what folks? Define Trend - is a very important point, here?

There is no such thing as Trend in price models that are based in four (4) dimensions. How on earth could there be! (LOL) The current model is bases on: Open, High, Low and Close. All of which (in the currency markets) are figments of our imagination anyway! In the Forex, the only real price is Last and it is composed of derivative (virtual) components called the Bid/Ask. The Forex has no central clearing, folks. All the "bars of data" that we explore and use in our technical models is all make believe framework. Hello?

Now, having stipulated this, let's dig into the so-called Trend itself. What is that thing people call "Trend" anyway?

Trends are composed of Price Deltas. Let me repeat that: Trends are composed of Price Deltas. They are non-linear by definition. A Price Delta is simply the distance in unit magnitude between Price Point "A" and Price Point "B." But, "Price" itself does not have to take a prescribed path in order to form the Price Delta Range A:B. One might say: Yes it does - if "B" is higher than "A" then Price had to move UP, causing the Trend to be UP. WRONG!

Why?

Because inside the larger]/b] Price Delta Range A:B, were a multitude of smaller Price Delta Range components, each having their own unique set of A:B relationships where there were many instances of the A:B pattern being REVERSED into the B:A pattern. This is what comprises the so-called Trend and this is precisely causes the Whipsaw.


Back to the mythical Trend. Eyes off the girls and back to trading, please. I digress.

So, recalling Principle #1 above, the larger A:B pattern must have enough continuance without too much decaying interest from the underlying (smaller) B:A reversal patterns. But, how do you know that the smaller B:A patterns are about to overtake the larger A:B pattern that you have just place a bet on continuing? The answer is found not in the Trend, but in the Trajectory. The Trajectory is composed of smaller A:B to B:A composite patterns and they are the best indicator of the health of the overlying Trend, or the Dominant Trajectory.

So, you have Subordinate Trajectories and one Dominant Trajectory for each Bar of data you observe. These Trajectories (A:B to B:A patterns) are what define the Structure of Price itself. The locate the High and Low of every single Bar of data you observe. Trade against the Dominant Trajectory and you will lose every single time - 100% guaranteed loss of some capital. Trade with the Dominant Trajectory an you will net capital gains 100% of the time, guaranteed. Why? Because the only way to get from Point "A" to Point "B" or from Point "B" to Point "A" - is by the creation of the Price Delta which forms the Length and Span of the Trajectory. This is called going inside the Trend and it is the only to understand what Price is actually doing.

The ATR (my calculation is different and it is called 'Omega' in my system) contains all smaller Trajectories for any given Bar of data (all Trajectories smaller than the time-interval of the Bar itself). Here is the problem with placing too much emphasis on simply trading the Inside Bar. While the Current Price may be above the Bar's Open Price for the day (as an example), the underlying Subordinate Trajectories could have very well already changed directions without the Trader knowing it, causing a high probability for severe whiplash upon entry into the IB break-out position. The inability to see inside the Trend causes this to be an all too familiar theme among Newbie Traders.

Proposed Solution for the Newbie:

Stop thinking in terms of Trends that don't exist and start developing a consciousness of Price Structure Stop thinking of "Price" as some singular value and develop an understanding that Price is stretched across a region of space and time. This requires a complete paradigm shift in your understanding of Price, from a singular fixed point, to a living, breathing, organism with Structure and Lifespan, continuously on the move.

Trends don't exist. The only thing real in the market place is movement from one location to another. Price moves as a complete Structure with its shape and form continuously variable. If you learn to look at the Shape of Price alone, that will do more to tell you the "Direction" of so-called "Price," more than any so-called "Trend Indicator" ever could. Price has shape, form, contour, boundary layer, structure, length, height and even width - not to mention Personality, Attitude, Traits and Behavior Characteristics.

"Price" is Alive and well, thank you very much. It has a heartbeat, a respiratory rate and an appetite for Newbies that fail to respect its right to exist as a fully sentient (make no mistake about it) non-corporal being. ;)

Price was never what you thought it was.

You've just been given an extremely brief introduction to Price Structure.
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Volatility changes , market behaviour changes and price breakout and trending patterns change.
 
Trends don't exist? I can only assume the author of that was some relation of Mr Magoo!

664b06aea8f03db8af82c274f5f59e5e.png
 
oildaytrader said:
Market is dynamic and changes its shape and structure.No mechanical system will work forever,unless it is dynamic and self adapts with the Black Swan scenario.

Volatility changes , market behaviour changes and price breakout and trending patterns change.
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What ARE you talking about?? You type a string of English words which together loosely form what might be construed as a sentence. However, these collections of words contain no sense or meaning, they are undiluted nonsense.

"self adapts with the Black Swan scenario"? I really hope that anyone doesn't take your posts seriously.
 
Trends are objective flows during preconceived time frames,...ranging from long, middle and short term.
As nunrgguy has stated,..it's all a matter of perspective
"Nothing new under the sun",....Ecclesiastes
 
Depends on how long you're looking to hold for.
In the immediate instance if 22757 holds we're going long at 22985 but at this time of day...I think not
 
nunrgguy said:
Depends on how long you're looking to hold for.
In the immediate instance if 22757 holds we're going long at 22985 but at this time of day...I think not
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Very poor looking charts on all time frames for Euro, every time frame showing euro breakdown.
 
oildaytrader said:
Very poor looking charts on all time frames for Euro, every time frame showing euro breakdown.
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Also from ODDT with reference to his current style of "mercenary trading"-

"My definition for trading purposes is it has no regard for anything , things like set ups, systems,clinical trades and other methods which traders would normally use.A mercenary will bet against anything and everything that makes money.

The mercenary might be buying the new lows and selling the new highs."

So, in summary, other traders' methods (e.g. looking at charts) are not important, but the chart is telling you Euro is under pressure. As the Euro makes lows, you will be buying it yet you think it's about to breakdown.

Do you

1. Purposefully contradict yourself because it amuses you
2. Not have the slightest clue what you're talking about OR
3. Both of the above

?
 
This mercenary trading is far too complicated for me! It reminds me of a style of trading I adopted a long time ago when I made big money, lost discipline and traded desparately without reason to try and make my money back. I didn't.

Give me a humble old trading system any day.
 
In a word, no they don't and they are a palpable waste of money.

I'm afraid that to trade profitably you will end up having to actually learn how to trade yourself. Effectively that means many years of trading and yes, losing money on occassion ( your real life tuition fees). Or finding a Mentor who can save you a good few of those years. Eventually you learn the art of trading as if it were learning a foreign language.

Would you bet on your own performance going in to take a French Exam when you hadn't actually learned how to read and write French?

Wirraltraders

Given that the market is very much an ever-changing arena - do these trading systems actually work?

Also, as there is always an "upgraded / better" version available further down the line - does this mean that the "system" has been updated because flaws were recognised / new market moves have been added to the overall algorithm?

Therefore, does this mean that these "systems" are in an ever-changing state and don't actually work?[/QUOTE]
 
wirraltraders said:
In a word, no they don't and they are a palpable waste of money.

I'm afraid that to trade profitably you will end up having to actually learn how to trade yourself. Effectively that means many years of trading and yes, losing money on occassion ( your real life tuition fees). Or finding a Mentor who can save you a good few of those years. Eventually you learn the art of trading as if it were learning a foreign language.

Would you bet on your own performance going in to take a French Exam when you hadn't actually learned how to read and write French?

Wirraltraders

Given that the market is very much an ever-changing arena - do these trading systems actually work?

Also, as there is always an "upgraded / better" version available further down the line - does this mean that the "system" has been updated because flaws were recognised / new market moves have been added to the overall algorithm?

Therefore, does this mean that these "systems" are in an ever-changing state and don't actually work?[/QUOTE

What are you selling?
Click to expand...
 
I teach people how to Trade, I do not sell Trading systems.

The journey a new Trader goes on usually involves initially

Losing money
Buying expensive "Trading systems"
Losing money
Finding the "Holy Grail"
Losing more money
etc.

This goes on for about 6 years until either they give up or actually learn how to Trade the hard way or with the help of a Mentor.

This is why only 5% of retail Traders actually make money consistently.
 
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