The Trading Journey of Lurker

[Kevin21]

well i'll add my two shinny nuggets to the fountain of thoughts...

What else can I do? I don't have a system that works. Therefore I need to find and implement a system that works. How many of you managed to get a system right the first try? I am trying not to jump about here.

I didn't get it right the first time, but i stuck with the same fundemental sytem and made it work for me. Remember my cryptic PM about the porsche 911? Like i said, think about it...

I am now without a system. My posts in the last few days have revolved around my attempt to adopt a system, backtest it, paper trade it, and implement it. How is this jumping around when I do not have a system yet? I appreciate I have tried a few flavours so far, but nothing has worked yet.

Like you've said yourself, you've only been trying a system for a few days before binning it declearing that it doesn't work. Have patients, rome wasn't built in a day. I'm going to apply a quote to the trade2win boards that i feel is true of most the people who try to be traders, as well as life in general....

' I see the strongest and smartest men who've ever lived. I see all this potential, and i see squandering. An entire gerneration pumping gas, waiting tables; slaves with white collars. Advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy **** we don't need. We're the middle children of history. No purpose or place. We have no Great War. No Great Depression. Out Great War is a spiritual war... our Great Depression is out lives. We've all been rasied on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars. But we won't, and we're slowly learning that fact...'

Once again think about it...

Also in my opinion you're focusing way too much on indicators. This is something i did when i first started out. What you've got to remember is that you need a sound market theory to base your trades on. Indicators are merely there for timing the entry and exit. By the sounds of it, you're a lost soul who is a slave of indicators....

Just my thoughts...

 

[ian]

Once again, it all comes down to you.

Says it all, really.

:|

 

[jacinto]

lurker,

honestly hope you find the method that suits you and allows you to move forward again.

good luck

j

 

[lurkerlurker]

lurker,

honestly hope you find the method that suits you and allows you to move forward again.

good luck

j

Thanks mate - I truly appreciate that.

Kevin, once again another great post, but I'm a little confused: which indicators am I using to trade the Dow?

 

[brutusdog]

lurker,

you asked me to clarify this post. the first sentence should be clear and easy to understand, but i will expand with a basic and crude example to get the point across.

the mating game:
10 females and 10 males are at a pub. they were driven there by their mating instincts. the males eye the females, and start chatting them up. 9 males have focused only on 1 female each and only one. the remainding male is trying to chat all the 10 females.

1 hour after, each of the 9 females chatted up by the focused 9 males have focused only on their corresponding male.

the remaining female sees the lack of interest of the remaining male, and leaves the pub. the remaining male doesnt realise he will not mate because lack of focus.

how many methods have you described in this journal?
how many of them have you backtested and where profitable?
of the profitable backtested methods, how many did you actually try?
of the ones you tried, how many turned out not to be profitable?
was lack of profitability due to "bad method" or because you didnt follow rules?

dunno if i get the point across?

good weekend

j.

nice point well made. i would add this once again, as i have mentioned to lurker before, how can you know how to achive something if you dont know what you want.

if you want to day trade do it. if you want to trade the fx / dow / gold do it. you need to find what you want to get out of trading and look at yourself in the mirror and make a descision. at the moment it seems you have the patience of a fly and are all fart and no sh1t.

stop finding excuses for yourself ie...system / spreadbetting company / timeframe...

it all boils down to you. trading is not difficult it is not a battle but you do not understand yourself and until you do you are fighting against your personality and you will not win.

this will be my last post on your trading. there are several systems for trading the dow intraday on this website alone dinos / fw / attilla and many more have given you all the tools with which to succed but you have to use them.

you have all the answers to all the questions but until you wake up to the fact that you have to take responsibility for yourself and do it your way its a game of chance.

all the best bd.

 

[Kevin21]

all fart and no sh1t

i hate it when you get them...

 

[firewalker99]

Firewalker - I now begin the task of reviewing our correspondences, both PM and posts, to find out what the heck I missed in making that system profitable. I am under the impression that the system you showed me forms the basis for at least part of your strategy, and I was able to extract a large number of good trades from it. As for improving it - I think you must have developed a way to filter losing trades to get positive expectancy - how you do this is for me to figure out. As I review our correspondence, I would think that it would be wise to do some work on the range of the market, and the volume. This should assist in confirming the mechanical entry, or vetoing a trade. I'll work on further backtesting this meanwhile. This will be in addition to my gap strategy work.

Today (DOW) is actually a very good day to illustrate the principles of the system I've shown you. A short from the PDH with a MOC order would've been good for about 60 points. Which is about the maximum range of today, so I'd consider that a very decent score for a relatively small range day like today.

You are not "missing" anything per se. What you need to do is analyze what the best point to place your stop & target is. The only way to do is, is through hypothesizing, analzying, testing, refining and continuining the circle. Also, just shorting or buying the PDH/PDL with eyes closed might not be the best way to trade. Just take the time to see what happens around those levels, how price reacts; if it reacts, etc...

And there's obviously the factor volatility that you are going to want to incorporate. Markets go through cyclical phases of volatility (range expansion - range contraction).

 

[GMP]

Glad you like them. My exact setup is:

Gentoo Linux running VMWare 5 which runs

Windows 2000 Professional in VMWare
NinjaTrader
OpenTick​

If you use Windows you can get NinjaTrader for free (you need to register your email address. You can display charts, indicators, time and sales, level 2, place simulated trades, and backtest strategies. All of this is free. If you wish to place actual trades using the program (it talks to Interactive Brokers and almost everyone else) you need to pay for it. I use it for charting as I am still spreadbetting, so it is free to me.

Now you need your data feed. Ninja is compatible with OpenTick, which is free except exchange fees. This means you get ECBOT eminis (including the YM) and the ECNs for free. I pay $1/month to the NYSE through OT to get access to $Tick. otFeed is US exchanges only, but it does AMEX, NYSE, Nasdaq, CME, CBOT, etc.

This sounds good, especially Opentick, but I'm wondering if either would be any use to my situation. I'm basically just after a live data feed that'll give me intraday data in 1min/5 min/10 min/1 hour format (all or any!) in .csv format that I can just import into Excel, as that's where I have all my analysis set up (and I'm far too ignorant to be able to convert it to any other package!). Does Opentick do this, or would I need Ninjatrader too?
Thanks for your time, and excuse any naiiveté on my part - I'm just an amateur wondering if I could ever make any money at trading but lacking the tools to find out!

 

[lurkerlurker]

August Employment

Sold heavily into the number today, exited for +50. This was my target, but I'm feeling a little upset at not revising my target as the number was so bearish. Still, another profitable week, and a good start to the month.

I usually stay flat into a number, but I thought +118K estimate was ridiculous, and the EUR/USD seemed to indicate that the big boys over here were expecting a bearish reaction to the number, so I decided to sell a few minutes prior.

I'll leave you all with this funny video, which reminds me of today's shenanigans.

I won't be trading or posting much over the next few weeks - I'll be back for YMZ7 soon though - good trading all.

 

[fibonelli]

Sold heavily into the number today, exited for +50. This was my target, but I'm feeling a little upset at not revising my target as the number was so bearish. Still, another profitable week, and a good start to the month.

I usually stay flat into a number, but I thought +118K estimate was ridiculous, and the EUR/USD seemed to indicate that the big boys over here were expecting a bearish reaction to the number, so I decided to sell a few minutes prior.

I'll leave you all with this funny video, which reminds me of today's shenanigans.

I won't be trading or posting much over the next few weeks - I'll be back for YMZ7 soon though - good trading all.

Well done LL!

Funnily enough, I had a buy signal on EUR/USD and a sell signal on EStx50 at 1.15pm. I didn't take it as I didn't want to have my a$$ handed to me on a plate at 1.30pm if I was wrong!

 

[lurkerlurker]

Well done LL!

Funnily enough, I had a buy signal on EUR/USD and a sell signal on EStx50 at 1.15pm. I didn't take it as I didn't want to have my a$$ handed to me on a plate at 1.30pm if I was wrong!

See - price discounts everything! The Euro markets gave us a good lead, and Wall St had their head elsewhere (and have been pretty out of touch with reality ever since Uncle Ben started bailing them out)! Recession fears now, and a fairly certain rate cut.

I was forced to take very short term positions later on today, as I wanted to limit my time in the market just in case the Fed made an unexpected rate cut. I think we all pretty much know what the result of the September FOMC meeting will be now.

As for being wrong - I could have quite easily been wrong, and it would have been very difficult to get out of that position, especially in a bucket shop. Also, selling 4 contracts wasn't the wisest thing to do, but I just kept looking at EUR/USD and "+118K" and thinking "this is the trade of the month".

Of course, it would have been if I had had the balls to hold it until EOD, but alas I did not! That is me off for the foreseeable future. I'll drop back towards the end of September, in time for YMZ7. Cheers

 

[lurkerlurker]

Threshold of Consistency?

Perhaps a little premature to call it that, however today marks my ninth consecutive profitable week - my best run since I started spreadbetting in late 2006. I've also broken even recently too, which was another significant milestone. I'm still trading the Dow with price and volume, and looking more at other markets.

I will not have very much time to be trading in the future, but will be trading the forex and the US evening session when I can. My pips are also getting quite impressive, and I have increased my trade size in line with the growth of my account. I feel once again that this year has been most worthwhile. Nevertheless, we will wait to see how I stand after a full year. I know I have frustrated many here, and have been too daft to take good advice on occasion, but I am quite pleased with my performance given that I am very very new to the markets. I don't think I have done at all badly for myself.

Big thanks to everyone who has helped, encouraged, and criticised over the last few months. Yes, that includes those who gave me a bit of the old boot when it was sorely needed!

Have a great weekend all.

 

[trader_dante]

What do you mean you won't have very much time to be trading in the future? What's happening? Lurker, there is an awful feeling of finality to that post...

 

[lurkerlurker]

What do you mean you won't have very much time to be trading in the future? What's happening? Lurker, there is an awful feeling of finality to that post...

I'm doing other things now which will take up my days. I'll only be around to watch the markets on a "part time" basis. I'm also looking to spend less time at the screens in order to take longer term positions with smaller stakes and higher percentage returns (and less costs).

I'm having a losing week. Down 250 in two days. Ill advised FTSE long cost me half of that. The market gave me chance after chance between 9am and 3pm to get out without much damage, but I didn't exit. I was stopped out.

Quite annoyed with myself (and the market). I know this isn't a correct way of thinking. I'm very very bitter about missing out on so many opportunities when the markets were over extended back in August. I almost feel like it is too late to trade.

Intellectually I can espouse platitudes that I know to be true; "the market creates opportunities every day" ; "you don't need to know what the market will do next to make money" ; "don't chase the trade" ;etc.

I'm just not in a state of mind to apply this right now. I'd give anything to be trading for a firm now rather than for my own account. It would have certain benefits in situations like this. I'm also becoming bothered by expectations about my own profit and loss - this week started badly because I started out flat and the first trade could put my performance on the week into a negative. Today there was pressure to make up yesterdays losses. This is not how to trade. I was only able to make money when I let go of such things.

I'm rambling now. I know what I need to do and I'm trying my best to do it. No more trades today or tomorrow. Clear my head. Perhaps don't check the markets every hour. Thanks for all the supportive comments folks.

 

[Charlton]

Good Luck

Perhaps a little premature to call it that, however today marks my ninth consecutive profitable week - my best run since I started spreadbetting in late 2006. I've also broken even recently too, which was another significant milestone. I'm still trading the Dow with price and volume, and looking more at other markets.

I will not have very much time to be trading in the future, but will be trading the forex and the US evening session when I can. My pips are also getting quite impressive, and I have increased my trade size in line with the growth of my account. I feel once again that this year has been most worthwhile. Nevertheless, we will wait to see how I stand after a full year. I know I have frustrated many here, and have been too daft to take good advice on occasion, but I am quite pleased with my performance given that I am very very new to the markets. I don't think I have done at all badly for myself.

Big thanks to everyone who has helped, encouraged, and criticised over the last few months. Yes, that includes those who gave me a bit of the old boot when it was sorely needed!

Have a great weekend all.

Good Luck with whatever direction you decide to take in respect of both trading and your life outside of trading and T2W.

Hope you look in from time to time

Charlton

 

[fibonelli]

Very best wishes

Fibonelli

 

[Hoggums]

Good luck, I'm sure any experienced trader here can identify with what you're writing - we've all been there. It's part of the learning process.

 

[GMP]

frustration

I'm doing other things now which will take up my days. I'll only be around to watch the markets on a "part time" basis. I'm also looking to spend less time at the screens in order to take longer term positions with smaller stakes and higher percentage returns (and less costs).

I'm having a losing week. Down 250 in two days. Ill advised FTSE long cost me half of that. The market gave me chance after chance between 9am and 3pm to get out without much damage, but I didn't exit. I was stopped out.

Quite annoyed with myself (and the market). I know this isn't a correct way of thinking. I'm very very bitter about missing out on so many opportunities when the markets were over extended back in August. I almost feel like it is too late to trade.

Intellectually I can espouse platitudes that I know to be true; "the market creates opportunities every day" ; "you don't need to know what the market will do next to make money" ; "don't chase the trade" ;etc.

I'm just not in a state of mind to apply this right now. I'd give anything to be trading for a firm now rather than for my own account. It would have certain benefits in situations like this. I'm also becoming bothered by expectations about my own profit and loss - this week started badly because I started out flat and the first trade could put my performance on the week into a negative. Today there was pressure to make up yesterdays losses. This is not how to trade. I was only able to make money when I let go of such things.

I'm rambling now. I know what I need to do and I'm trying my best to do it. No more trades today or tomorrow. Clear my head. Perhaps don't check the markets every hour. Thanks for all the supportive comments folks.

Anyone who's honest can relate to this - Confucius say, "Some days, everything turn out ****." Having lost all the money I could afford to lose, I'm now trying to build an approach using CapitalOne's spread betting virtual account. It's the same as their real platform, only delayed 15 mins and is perfect for testing a quarterly-based system . I'm still losing money and learning lessons, but this time it's all virtual money!

 

[Dinos]

All the best lurker, its being interesting, perhaps if you move back into trading again, you may be better placed, as we have spoke before and you know my main methods are short medium term position trading or whatever you want to call it, but I do enjoy day trading success as well, the former will suit you methods I'm sure. For good luck in whatever you choose to do.

Bye

 

[black bear]

Time for a re-think perhaps ?

Hey Tom,

If I were you I would look at a few key things.

Time Frame - In my opinion work off a 10 minute chart it gets you in to the moves you need to and keeps you out of the moves that you don't want to be in.

Something that I was taught by a very experienced trader was....It's always better to be out of the market wishing you were in...than in the market wishing you were out !

If you go back to five minute, 3 minute charts you are always going to see moves and say **** I should have been in there. But remember the aim is to make profit with as little risk as possible.

Indicators (my opinion the ones NOT to use are Stochastics, Williams, Momentum, Volatility, Directional movement. I could go on and on with this list !

When it comes to reading, I have bought every book on the market, and you know what...some were good, some less so. However, I have come back to a nice simple system using just:

Moving Averages (identifies trends)
RSI (Shows me overbought over sold market conditions)
Bollinger Bands (shows me extreme prices relative to previous price bars)
MACD (I have this set using tighter average numbers than the moving averages I am using, helps me get out rather than get in)

They are the only indicators I use. Each one shows me something different so they do not CONTRADICT each other and confuse me when I am entering a position.

MY view now is not to try and trade every tick in the market. IF I can get two currency and two oil trades out a day I am over the MOON !

In terms of setting stops. I don't go in for this setting your stop at the bottom of a range. ON oil I set a 25 point stop (including spread) no matter where the price is relative to a range

I like to think that I am getting in to a trend and my buy in price is accurate. Any moves against me, tell me that my entry point was not correct and I need to get out with as little risk as possible.

ON Oil I am targeting 50 + Points per position. Don't always get it, but by being disciplined I have not had a losing trade for a couple of weeks, and my confidence has grown.

I also trade Cable. I used to trade the indicies but found their movements were erratic. I have also read reports that the FTSE, DAX, DOW Cash markets are manipulated by SB Companies who have to hedge in the Futures market. So you are not getting a "pure" market.

I find Oil is a blinder. It trends exceptionally well offering plenty of profit.

With cable I set a 13 point stop (including spread) normally targeting 20 + Points.

I have no qualms about exiting early should my exit criteria be hit.

Hope this is of help...

Hi ceydababy, great post

Hi Lurker,

If you must carry on intra day this is well worth more than 10 cents asking price IMO

I would look towards position plays in future and forget intra day trading all together and look to build position in the market when the market is telling you your opinion is correct and you and the market are in agreement . I have no experience of position trading myself, but from reading your journal and observing your posts I do not think you are cut out for intra day trading at all IMO.

I am sure that you will come through recent troubles stronger, but I think a re-think is required.

The observations and your what appears to me to be good understanding of various news and fundamental issues of the market lead me to think that your trades need to be aligned in the time frame that they influence Medium to Long term

Month and Week

A Days price action is at the end of the day just market noise, sentiment driven. You just don"t seem able to grasp this which is leading to opinion and emotional trading and the problems associated with it.

Many traders have given you plenty of good advice and ideas in the 32 pages, enough for anyone in fact IMO to build a consistent profitable method without looking any where else

Hope it helps a bit, and good Luck, its only my Opinion and its went well