The FTSE Monday, 5th December 2005
Friday's results:
Open: 5486.
Close: 5528, up 42pts.
Range: 5485 - 5528. It went up and stayed up.
On the Month: up 105pts. Slow down. Easy boy...
Last 5 trading days: Previous day down 25pts, now up 105pts. That's quite a substantial difference. To be honest, the FTSE's running a little too fast in too short a time. However, it may be a question of trying to catch up with the other markets.
Dow: 10,877, down 35pts. Not overly unexpected considering its 106pt rise the day before. But it’s important to note, although the Dow dropped early whilst the UK markets continued to deal, it didn't deter the FTSE's rise.
News items of note:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - 'The Federal Reserve is probably not yet finished raising interest rates and must fight any temptation to adopt policies that would stoke inflation, top central bank officials said on Friday. They stressed the importance of containing the federal budget deficit while at the same time maintaining their pledge to curb inflation.' - I consider this good news for the American markets.
FT.com - 'The UK's pre-Budget report on Monday is the central event of the week for UK investors as there seems little doubt that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday.Gordon Brown is expected to revise forecasts for growth this year down to about 2 per cent, which would still be more optimistic than the current consensus market forecast of 1.8 per cent.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday's, a rise followed by a potential drop. Three quarters right. Mmm. Mondays, a minor drop.
I've acquired a new set of market tools from 'Market Analyser.' I'm still a virgin to its programmes and therefore won’t read too much into their predictions or forecasts. I'll follow and analyse them for a few weeks and see how it goes.
Companies reporting:
ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT
BRITISH AIRWAYS [should be interesting]
DAVIS SERVICE
PRESTON
HELP HIRE
Do watch the banking sector Monday. It may be sufficiently adverse to move the market.
Economic Data:
Pre budget report.
The week ahead: It’s going to be one hell of a week! No predictions; no, X amount of points this way or that; no, the FTSE will end up or down. It’s too damned close to turmoil. Common-sense dictates that you move to Nova Scotia, hire a TV and sit back and watch.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The DOW’s minor fall on Friday will effect the FTSE come Monday; charts say a minor dip; Companies for the whole week will add a positive flow to the market and this should not be ignored. The economic data this coming week will decide how the rest of December fares.
Early gut feeling: a 70% chance of a fall.
Will I bet? It's a difficult one. I'll go with a Short - based on chart predictions.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Friday's results:
Open: 5486.
Close: 5528, up 42pts.
Range: 5485 - 5528. It went up and stayed up.
On the Month: up 105pts. Slow down. Easy boy...
Last 5 trading days: Previous day down 25pts, now up 105pts. That's quite a substantial difference. To be honest, the FTSE's running a little too fast in too short a time. However, it may be a question of trying to catch up with the other markets.
Dow: 10,877, down 35pts. Not overly unexpected considering its 106pt rise the day before. But it’s important to note, although the Dow dropped early whilst the UK markets continued to deal, it didn't deter the FTSE's rise.
News items of note:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - 'The Federal Reserve is probably not yet finished raising interest rates and must fight any temptation to adopt policies that would stoke inflation, top central bank officials said on Friday. They stressed the importance of containing the federal budget deficit while at the same time maintaining their pledge to curb inflation.' - I consider this good news for the American markets.
FT.com - 'The UK's pre-Budget report on Monday is the central event of the week for UK investors as there seems little doubt that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday.Gordon Brown is expected to revise forecasts for growth this year down to about 2 per cent, which would still be more optimistic than the current consensus market forecast of 1.8 per cent.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday's, a rise followed by a potential drop. Three quarters right. Mmm. Mondays, a minor drop.
I've acquired a new set of market tools from 'Market Analyser.' I'm still a virgin to its programmes and therefore won’t read too much into their predictions or forecasts. I'll follow and analyse them for a few weeks and see how it goes.
Companies reporting:
ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT
BRITISH AIRWAYS [should be interesting]
DAVIS SERVICE
PRESTON
HELP HIRE
Do watch the banking sector Monday. It may be sufficiently adverse to move the market.
Economic Data:
Pre budget report.
The week ahead: It’s going to be one hell of a week! No predictions; no, X amount of points this way or that; no, the FTSE will end up or down. It’s too damned close to turmoil. Common-sense dictates that you move to Nova Scotia, hire a TV and sit back and watch.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The DOW’s minor fall on Friday will effect the FTSE come Monday; charts say a minor dip; Companies for the whole week will add a positive flow to the market and this should not be ignored. The economic data this coming week will decide how the rest of December fares.
Early gut feeling: a 70% chance of a fall.
Will I bet? It's a difficult one. I'll go with a Short - based on chart predictions.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
The FTSE Tuesday, 6th December 2005
Monday's results:
Open: 5528.
Close: 5510, down 17pts. Expected.
Range: 5498 - 5532.
On the Month: up 87pts. A little too high
Last 5 trading days: up 33pts. It's nice to see the market falling neatly in line. The downside is, it becomes more difficult to predict.
Dow: 10,835, down 42pts.
Last 5 trading days: down 43pts. About right for this time of year, and it wouldn't surprise me tomorrow if both markets just took the day off, in that, very little movement.
News items of note:
Sky.com - 'The Chancellor's tough year. http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-13474608,00.html
Also: New Tax on Oil companies: http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-13474608,00.html
I'm not overly sure how the Oil companies will react to this. Will we see higher pump prices? Will Oil related stocks drop?
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Mondays, a minor drop. Tuesday's, no strong inclination but they do err towards a possible small rise.
Companies reporting:
GRAINGER TRUST
GREENE KING
HALMA
HBOS
NORTHGATE INFO
QUINTAIN ESTATES
RANK
SEVERN TRENT
VICTREX
ITE GROUP
SALVESEN [the one to watch for market movement]
Economic Data:
BRC Sales Monitor
Industrial Production
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: It's a tough one. the DOW’s down again, but this won't dramatically effect the FTSE come early morning; charts say a possible minor rise; Companies reporting will add volume but not dramatic movement; economic data results will not be earth shattering. In all, I don't expect the FTSE to shuffle by much unless the oil related companies take a dive.
Early gut feeling: a 55% chance of a rise.
Will I bet? No thanks, not unless something more positive comes to light.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Monday's results:
Open: 5528.
Close: 5510, down 17pts. Expected.
Range: 5498 - 5532.
On the Month: up 87pts. A little too high
Last 5 trading days: up 33pts. It's nice to see the market falling neatly in line. The downside is, it becomes more difficult to predict.
Dow: 10,835, down 42pts.
Last 5 trading days: down 43pts. About right for this time of year, and it wouldn't surprise me tomorrow if both markets just took the day off, in that, very little movement.
News items of note:
Sky.com - 'The Chancellor's tough year. http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-13474608,00.html
Also: New Tax on Oil companies: http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-13474608,00.html
I'm not overly sure how the Oil companies will react to this. Will we see higher pump prices? Will Oil related stocks drop?
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Mondays, a minor drop. Tuesday's, no strong inclination but they do err towards a possible small rise.
Companies reporting:
GRAINGER TRUST
GREENE KING
HALMA
HBOS
NORTHGATE INFO
QUINTAIN ESTATES
RANK
SEVERN TRENT
VICTREX
ITE GROUP
SALVESEN [the one to watch for market movement]
Economic Data:
BRC Sales Monitor
Industrial Production
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: It's a tough one. the DOW’s down again, but this won't dramatically effect the FTSE come early morning; charts say a possible minor rise; Companies reporting will add volume but not dramatic movement; economic data results will not be earth shattering. In all, I don't expect the FTSE to shuffle by much unless the oil related companies take a dive.
Early gut feeling: a 55% chance of a rise.
Will I bet? No thanks, not unless something more positive comes to light.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Mornington Crescent
Experienced member
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Oil companies
If the DCF aint worth the crust, Brown has probably killed off any further exploration in North Sea.
So we will be importing even more oil than before.
On profits from overseas projects, we will have to wait to see the small print.
But if the marginal tax on production is now higher in the UK than elsewhere, they may vote with their feet.
After all BP is not British Petroleum.
If the DCF aint worth the crust, Brown has probably killed off any further exploration in North Sea.
So we will be importing even more oil than before.
On profits from overseas projects, we will have to wait to see the small print.
But if the marginal tax on production is now higher in the UK than elsewhere, they may vote with their feet.
After all BP is not British Petroleum.
downbytheriver7
Well-known member
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Well i am going to have a go at a small short into this pop....and close my long.
The FTSE Wednesday, 7th December 2005
Tuesday's results:
Open: 5510.
Close: 5538, up 28pts. Expected, but if not for the DOWS healthy rise I would have said too much by 10pts.
Range: 5505 - 5546.
On the Month: up 115pts. Still too high
Last 5 trading days: up 47pts. Considered a healthy pace.
Dow: 10,856, up 21pts. From a high of 936 it certainly took a dive, but an up is an up.
Last 5 trading days: down 27pts. Its climbing back up and what can be regarded as a sensible pace. I'm not a devoted follower, but based on charts I see it rising again tomorrow. But don't bet on that!
News items of note:
Sky Business - 'The Chancellor has warned that pay increases for millions of public sector workers should be limited to 2% next year.Gordon Brown urged the pay review bodies for doctors, nurses, teachers, civil servants and the armed forces to take account of the impact of a surge in oil prices.The Chancellor wrote to the bodies emphasising that settlements should be based on the achievement of his inflation target of 2%.' - He's blaming it on the black stuff again. To be honest, he's not got the easiest role in the world and I for one believe he's done better then most could have.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday's erred towards a possible small rise. Wednesday, debatable. According to two separate charting systems the FTSE has room to move either way, a rise before a drop being the strongest indication.
Companies reporting:
EASYJET
NORTHUMBRIAN WATER
SHAFTESBURY
SMITH (DS)
STAGECOACH
STANDARD CHARTERED
ACCIDENT EXCHANGE
CHAPELTHORPE
COOCH & HOUSEGO
HARDYS & HANSONS
INTEC TELECOM
ULTRAFRAME
Quite a mixed bag and one which will add plenty of market movement.
Economic Data:
Consumer Credit [Mmmm, if the data was compiled purely on my credit card the markets would surely tumble]
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOWs shuffling ahead with a two up one down momentum; but again, no major favours for the FTSE's opening; charts are not clear, but favour the 'up early, down late' pattern, where it will finally rest is unclear; Companies will once again add volume and economic news is debatable.
Early gut feeling: a 60% of an early rise.
Will I bet? I'll hold back until the morning and see what the rest of the world has to say, but at the moment I favour the rise.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Tuesday's results:
Open: 5510.
Close: 5538, up 28pts. Expected, but if not for the DOWS healthy rise I would have said too much by 10pts.
Range: 5505 - 5546.
On the Month: up 115pts. Still too high
Last 5 trading days: up 47pts. Considered a healthy pace.
Dow: 10,856, up 21pts. From a high of 936 it certainly took a dive, but an up is an up.
Last 5 trading days: down 27pts. Its climbing back up and what can be regarded as a sensible pace. I'm not a devoted follower, but based on charts I see it rising again tomorrow. But don't bet on that!
News items of note:
Sky Business - 'The Chancellor has warned that pay increases for millions of public sector workers should be limited to 2% next year.Gordon Brown urged the pay review bodies for doctors, nurses, teachers, civil servants and the armed forces to take account of the impact of a surge in oil prices.The Chancellor wrote to the bodies emphasising that settlements should be based on the achievement of his inflation target of 2%.' - He's blaming it on the black stuff again. To be honest, he's not got the easiest role in the world and I for one believe he's done better then most could have.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday's erred towards a possible small rise. Wednesday, debatable. According to two separate charting systems the FTSE has room to move either way, a rise before a drop being the strongest indication.
Companies reporting:
EASYJET
NORTHUMBRIAN WATER
SHAFTESBURY
SMITH (DS)
STAGECOACH
STANDARD CHARTERED
ACCIDENT EXCHANGE
CHAPELTHORPE
COOCH & HOUSEGO
HARDYS & HANSONS
INTEC TELECOM
ULTRAFRAME
Quite a mixed bag and one which will add plenty of market movement.
Economic Data:
Consumer Credit [Mmmm, if the data was compiled purely on my credit card the markets would surely tumble]
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOWs shuffling ahead with a two up one down momentum; but again, no major favours for the FTSE's opening; charts are not clear, but favour the 'up early, down late' pattern, where it will finally rest is unclear; Companies will once again add volume and economic news is debatable.
Early gut feeling: a 60% of an early rise.
Will I bet? I'll hold back until the morning and see what the rest of the world has to say, but at the moment I favour the rise.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
downbytheriver7
Well-known member
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Choppy times...
Well the market definately is getting choppy here and its getting tricky to call the year end rally or not. Still fairly flat for the week and trying to establish a long position ahead of the year end and approaching skiing trip....
Had a few short 'orders to open' on the US markets that got missed by the skin of the teeth..oh well..
ukhero said:
Well the market definately is getting choppy here and its getting tricky to call the year end rally or not. Still fairly flat for the week and trying to establish a long position ahead of the year end and approaching skiing trip....
Had a few short 'orders to open' on the US markets that got missed by the skin of the teeth..oh well..
Slim Sladey
Junior member
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Time to go short yet?
Windlesham1
Established member
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amazing what all that laundered money can do
mark twain uk
Established member
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dc,
one assumes that you went short at 70-ish, would one be right?
one assumes that you went short at 70-ish, would one be right?
mark twain uk
Established member
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good, me too
mark twain uk
Established member
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it did not quite get there yet, but there is still time
I thought about closing it at 22-23, but decided to wait
I thought about closing it at 22-23, but decided to wait
