The FTSE

The FTSE Wednesday, 30th November 2005

Tuesday's results:

Open: 5477.

Close: 5491, up 13pts.

Range: 5451 - 5503. A moderate swing of 52pts, which reached, breached, but failed to stay beyond the 5500 barrier.

On the Month: up 174pts. I expected the FTSE to be up by 230pts by end of the month. It seems I'm a tad short. But then again, there's still one day left!

Last 5 trading days: down 26pts.

Dow: 10,888, down 2pts. From a daily high of 10959, it seems to have dropped quite a lot in the last hour. I can see the DOW taking a breather for the next few days.

News items of note:

FT.COM - 'Are stocks enjoying a fourth quarter rally? Many Wall Street strategists want to say that they are and they have plenty of circumstantial evidence. Raw indices show the US equity market at its highest in 4½ years. This statistic tends to ignore the fact that the market is still well below its peak of five years ago, before the correction following the bursting of the Internet bubble, but the headline is good for investor confidence.' - Again we have analysts predicting an end of year party. I believe the DOW will progress three steps forward followed by two back.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday was no clear indication. Wednesday, still unclear but does er towards a rise.

Companies reporting:

ARLA FOODS
CORUS
DAILY MAIL
DE VERE
KINGFISHER
LONDON MERCHANT SECS
KELDA GROUP
MITCHELLS & BUTLERS
SAGE

The FTSE's movement tomorrow may be largely dependent on the above results.

Economic Data:

CPI Inflation report
GFK Consumer Confidence

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The DOW’s looking somewhat tired, and it has to be said that it's had a good run of late so, I'm not expecting any major leaps one way or another for the rest of the week; the FTSE is waiting outside the 5500 window and it seems reluctant to move forward and press on towards the 5600 mark, but this week is its best opportunity to do so. I still have faith it will move forward. Charts are unclear.

Early gut feeling: a 60% chance of a rise.

Will I bet? I'm rolling Tuesdays Long. If I'm right, I'll cap it at 20pts.

My own stock tip: watch Rio Tinto [rio.l] tomorrow.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

yours

UK
 
yes gone long, we have a series of higher lows ticking up from the low of the day and the US futures seem to be coming off their lows...stop at 5453 for me - as this would break the higher lows trend....if it does go up will trail the stop loss as not 100% confident we wont see lower over the next few days/weeks..
 
My stop gap cancelled my Long at 5479 for a measly gain of 7pts.

The FTSE's at 5459 as I write with the DOW up +17 and climbing.

As I'm not able to watch the markets hereafter I'll stay out.

UK
 
5400ish

yup

then we will see how serious this sell off might be.

would not be surprised by a rally to make a lower high at some stage.
 
The FTSE Thursday, 1st December 2005

Wednesday's results:

Open: 5491.

Close: 5423, down 67pts. Ouch!

Range: 5423 - 5491. A heavy swing of 68pts. It's times like these that I wish I was more like a bear. I have to admit my last few days have been well off the mark, but having spoken to a number of Market annalists it seems I'm not the only one. Even so, my street cred has taken a battering.

On the Month: up 106pts. To be honest this was well short of my monthly prediction.

Last 5 trading days: FTSE down 108pts.

Dow: 10,805, down 82pts.

News items of note:

TimesOnline - 'Interest-rate worries and weakness among the oil stocks pushed the FTSE 100 index to a three-week closing low. Broker downgrades of Royal & Sun Alliance, Compass and the property stocks were not exactly a help either'

LONDON (Reuters) - 'Britons should work longer and save harder to stave off a looming pensions crisis as the country's population grows older, a landmark report recommended on Wednesday.

The Pensions Commission was asked three years ago to look at problems facing the country's system, creaking under the pressure of an ageing workforce and facing a 57 billion pound shortfall in retirement savings.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday's was unclear but did err on the side of a rise! Thursday, mixed. Short term [daily] up, long term [five days] down.

Companies reporting:

AWG
CALEDONIA INVESTS
DE LA RUE
FINDEL
FKI
HSBC [the one to watch]
MFI
UNITED UTILITIES

The FTSE's movement tomorrow will be largely dependent on the above results.

Economic Data:

PMI Manufacturing Nov - L51.7 F51.9

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The DOW’s taken an unexpected hammering; the FTSE has dropped far to quickly in one day and over the past five, but the DOW's heavy drop of 82pts won't help it's recovery tomorrow morning; chart predictions are mixed: a rise for the day compared to a down for the next 5 days; company results by themselves won't add enough support towards a potential rise

Early gut feeling: as it stands its too close to a 50/50 call and therefore not worth the risk.

Will I bet? Made 7pts on my Long before it cancelled so I'm out of the market. I do favour a rise, but I'll go with my gut feelings for tomorrow and stay out of it untill the signs are more clearer.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

yours

UK
 
UK-Economy : Bad news for high street shops
01-Dec-2005 12:48
Christmas trading looked grim for
retailers today as figures showed high
street sales had fallen at their
fastest rate for at least 22 years.
The CBI said sales in November were
"heavily down on a year ago" and even
worse than the previous record low in
September.
Expectations for the usually buoyant
December were also the lowest on record
as retailers felt the strain of weak
consumer spending.
In the November survey, 51% of
retailers questioned said sales volumes
were down on a year ago while only 17%
said they were up.
The balance of minus 35% was the worst
since the CBI's Distributive Trades
Survey began 22 years ago and far lower
than September's figure of minus 24%.
John Longworth, director of Asda and
chairman of the CBI's survey panel,
said: "Any hopes retailers had of an
early Christmas present have been
dashed.
"Consumers have been extremely
reluctant to spend money, and shops
will be crossing their fingers that the
predicted cold spell and the rapid
approach of Christmas drives people
through their doors and gets the tills
ringing.
"Prices are being cut and this,
coupled with the escalation in fuel
prices, will see margins put under
serious pressure.
"The consumer spending slowdown is
impacting on the economy as a whole and
is of real concern to businesses across
the board."
 
downbytheriver7 said:
Looking for a short entry point I think today....a close below 5450 would look like the next move is lower
Click to expand...

Did you go short or did you slap the FTSE all the way up to 5493?

Me, seeing as I had too many meetings to attend, stayed out of the market. Un-happy face here!

UK
 
The FTSE Friday, 2nd December 2005

Thursday's results:

Open: 5423.

Close: 5486, up 62pts.

Range: 5423 - 5494. A heavy swing of 62pts, which was a mirror swing of Wednesdays drop.

On the Month: up 62pts.

Last 5 trading days: FTSE down 25pts.

Dow: 10,912, up 106pts.

News items of note:

FT.com - 'Eurozone government bonds prices held higher after the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in five years.

The central bank’s decision to lift rates by 25 basis points to 2.25 per cent, had been well telegraphed in advanced by policymakers.

The rate has remained at 2 per cent since June, 2003.

Traders and analysts are likely to focus mainly on the statements to follow at 1330 GMT for indications about the future path of interest rate moves.'
Timesonline - 'Fears are building that retailers could suffer one of the worst Christmases on record after the CBI painted the bleakest picture of high street activity since its closely-watched survey of the sector began in 1983.

More than half of retailers questioned said November sales volumes were down on a year ago while only 17 per cent reported an improved figure. The rounded balance of -35 per cent was far worse than the previous low of -24 per cent reported in September. Expected sales over Christmas were also at their lowest ever level, recording a figure of -23 per cent.'

Also:

British manufacturing growth slowed last month as a weaker pound failed to boost the sector.

The closely-watched PMI index for November fell to 51.0, from October's six-month high of 51.6. The reading wrong-footed economists who had expected no change. A figure of more than 50 indicates expansion.

However, economists said the latest survey was unlikely to prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates to support manufacturing.'
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursday's was mixed. Short term [daily] up, long term [five days] down. Friday's, a rise followed by a potential drop.

Companies reporting:

ALLIANCE & LEICESTER
WOLVES & DUDLEY

Economic Data:

None for the UK.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The DOW’s rise assisted the FTSE today and will add additional favours tomorrow; charts state a rise; long term economic data doesn't sound very promising, so hards times ahead for the FTSE in December.

Early gut feeling: a 65% chance of a rise.

Will I bet? Stayed out of the market today. Tomorrow, if nothing changes, I'll go a small long.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

yours

UK
 
bit of a day really....

ukhero said:
Did you go short or did you slap the FTSE all the way up to 5493?

Me, seeing as I had too many meetings to attend, stayed out of the market. Un-happy face here!

UK
Click to expand...

I bought the close yesterday long @ 5430 closed it in the morning around 5453 - then went short at 5478, stop at 5501. I also went short on the CAC 40 - riding a small loss which cancels out what I made on the long.

Not really sure from here, do we have a higher low as part of a small leg down or that was it and its up from here all the way. Thought more along the first option but the US markets where very stable and solid today so maybe its the latter.

Up until this lunchtime the charts all looked very toppy. Guess for the FTSE it all depends on 5500 (again).
 
For the past two hours I've been studying a new set of charts from Market Analyser. Both the DOW and the FTSE charts are showing a retracment indicator warning approx one hour prior to the markets closing.

Based on my early knowledge of these charts I'm not going to read too much into that, but it will be interesting to see tomorrow. If they are right, within 3 hours both markets should have moved down and past there opening prices. Mmmm.

UK
 
UK-Money : Household goods spending drops
02-Dec-2005 06:51
Spending on household goods has
dropped during the past year as falling
consumer confidence has caused people
to tighten their belts, research showed
today.
The value of the average home's
contents has increased by just 1.6%
since 2004, to around #45,341,
according to insurer More Than.
It said this was well down on the 6.7%
jump in the value of contents seen
during 2004, and the 56% gain during
the past decade. The group said the
slowdown in spending mirrored the
cooling property market.
It added that consumer confidence had
fallen to its lowest level for
two-and-a-half years as people faced
high levels of personal debt, as well
as rising petrol prices and utility
bill increases.
David Pitt, head of insurance at More
Than, said: "Consumer confidence has
dropped this year due to house price
worries and increasing consumer debt.
"The last decade saw a huge increase
in spending on items for the inside of
our homes, as we filled them with
gadgets and time-saving devices, but we
have seen this slowdown over the past
12 months."
Three areas of the country bucked the
trend. The average value of the
contents of people's homes in the North
West, East Midlands and Wales all saw
double digit growth during the year.
The North West saw the biggest rise at
just under 15%, while in Wales the
value of the contents of people's homes
rose by 11.2%, and in the East Midlands
they rose by 10%.
London saw the biggest fall, with the
value of people's possessions an
average of 5% lower than they had been
during 2004, while Yorkshire and
Humberside reported a 2.6% fall and in
the North East the value of contents
was 2% lower than 12 months ago.
People in the South East have the
highest value possessions, at an
average of #52,646, followed by those
in the East at #52,110. At the other
end of the scale people in the North
East own possessions worth just
#36,071, on average, and those in
Scotland value the contents of their
homes at around #37,181.

0651 GMT Dec 02 2005
 
Stock talk : UK bank windfall tax possible
02-Dec-2005 11:16
Reports UK banks may face a windfall
tax of #1bn when the pre-budget
statement comes out on Monday would, if
true, be negative for banking sector
sentiment, even as a one-off charge,
says Jonathan Pierce at CSFB.
"In Ireland, the government has taxed
the financial services sector EUR100m
for the last three years, knocking
about 2% off annual sector profits each
year," he notes.
"If it is a one-off, it is obviously
easily absorbed by the sector - but
either way is clearly negative for the
sector from a sentiment point of view,"
he says. Adds that #1bn is roughly
equal to 6% of domestic annual profits.

1116 GMT Dec 02 2005
 
anyone like to call some trades/views on uk in the t2w chat room next week?
 
FTSE top <5600 consolidating into the New Year. I think there's better action for global players in other markets-Nikkei, Nasdaq,Dax. and maybe the exotics.
 
close at 5528 and looking good

but with that fib at 5547, maybe worth waiting to see what happens next .

remember expiry is getting closer ........
 
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