The FTSE Thursday, 12th January 2006
Wednesday's results:
Open: 5688.
Close: 5731, up 42pts. An exact reversal of yesterday.
Range: 5688 - 5731.
Last 5 trading days: up 17pts.
On the month: up 113pts or 2.01%. Well behind my forecast.
Dow: 11,043, up 31pts.
Last 5 trading days: up 163pts.
On the month: up 325pts or 3.03%
News items of note:
LONDON (Reuters) - 'A complete ban on smoking in all English pubs and clubs looks increasingly likely after the government said on Wednesday it would allow its MPs to vote according to conscience and not along party lines. The move averts a likely parliamentary revolt and possible defeat for Prime Minister Tony Blair, whose plans propose a smoking ban which would exempt pubs which do not serve food.' -
If the ban goes ahead, we'll see a dramatic drop in the share price of tobacco related companies and an increase in those little sticky patches. I wonder who makes them?
UK Hits Worst-Ever Trade Deficit:
Sky Business - 'Britain recorded its worst-ever monthly goods trade deficit during November as the oil account slipped into the red for the fifth month running.The trade-in-goods deficit stood at ?6bn in November from an upwardly revised ?5.1bn in October, the Office For National Statistics said. "The overall trade performance was dragged down by a fifth successive deficit in oil trade and a reduced surplus in services," noted Global Insight economist Howard Archer.
The reading was worse than analysts' consensus forecasts of a £4.7bn deficit. A larger-than-usual increase in non-EU imports was mostly due to the purchase of aircraft, consumer goods other than cars, and precious stones, the ONS said. Further damage to the trade-in-goods deficit came from the oil account, which has traditionally been well in surplus since North Sea oil came onstream in the late 1970s.
The November oil account was in deficit to the tune of £100m against October's shortfall of £200m - October's oil account was originally a surplus. Because of the October revision, the oil account has now been in deficit for five consecutive months for the first time since comparable monthly records began in the 1980s. Britain is facing the prospect of recording its biggest annual trade-in-goods deficit this year, subject to no major revisions to previous data, the spokesman added.
So far the deficit in 2005 stands at £58.5bn against £60.4bn for the whole of 2004.'
Interestingly enough, the markets picked up momentum shortly after the news release, and as it seems, even flag waving failed to deter the bulls from their bargains!
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday stated a rise. Thursday, a weak indication of a rise.
Companies reporting:
Amec
Boots
Carphone W
GUS
HMV
Informa
Petrofac
Photo-me [expecting good results]
Sainsbury
SIG
SIGNET [12:30pm, all others pre Mkt]
Spectris
Taylor Nelson
Travis Perkins
Economic Data:
09:30 UK Industrial Production (month) Nov
12:00 UK BoE Rate Announcement Jan [Conflict over this release: one web site says today another says Friday!]
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW's up but don't expect any favours in the morning; charts say a weak possibility of a rise; another mixed bag of companies reporting in which I'm expecting an overall positive towards the market; Business news doesn't sound too good; economic news is the one to watch.
Early gut feeling: neutral.
Will I bet? If not for the economic news I'd go Long tomorrow. As it is, I'll wait and see which hat the FTSE wears.
P.S went a June Long on the Nikkie and its looking handsome.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
