The FTSE 2006

[Morris]

Downbytheriver, trade size depends on anticipated duration of trade - £50 pp for 10 mins is not the same as £50pp over 6 months.


Also stop size of course - it's possible to have a 4 point stop on the futures. So if max risk is £200, that's about 5 contracts.

Most people start out with positions that are too big in my opinion.

 

[Mornington Crescent]

oh dear, what a lovely day

looks like the sb's are out of pocket today.

unable to beat last nights best (so far)

 

[downbytheriver7]

oh dear, what a lovely day

looks like the sb's are out of pocket today.

unable to beat last nights best (so far)

Not out of pocket, but no more in it today! Impressive action indeed though.

 

[Windlesham1]

FTSE fib levels -next stop 1.618% retracement gives us 5751.9 I look forward to the next realistic market move,especially after NEXT 10% rise-what the hell was that about? Somebody leaked some numbers,or laundered some serious wedge.

 

[Windlesham1]

please excuse erroneous decimal point-161.8% retracement. Sorry can't find me specs

 

[ukhero]

downbytheriver,

assuming that the trading pot at risk is between 1% and 5%, depending on personalities and styles, and assuming a stop loss of 30 points, this gives us a range of £3 to £15 per point. Have I got my sums right?

I agree, its more about trading style, and 3-15 is about right.

UK

 

[ukhero]

FTSE fib levels -next stop 1.618% retracement gives us 5751.9 I look forward to the next realistic market move,especially after NEXT 10% rise-what the hell was that about? Somebody leaked some numbers,or laundered some serious wedge.

Saw it coming, or to be more informative, shop there and have done so over the years. Seen the transformation of late and was impressed, but more important, I've noted an increase in customer confidence.

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE Thursday, 5th January 2006

Wednesday's results:

Open: 5681.

Close: 5714, up a moderate 33pts.

Range: 5681 - 5716.

Last 5 trading days: up 119pts.

On the month: up 96pts.

Dow: 10,880, up 32pts.

Last 5 trading days: up 102pts.

On the month: up 163pts.

News items of note:

London closes at 4.5-year high as retailers bounce back into fashion:

FT.com - 'London’s main equities markets rose to fresh 4.5 year highs on Wednesday, as news of upbeat Christmas trading at fashion chain Next lifted the retail sector. The FTSE 100 finished the day 0.6 per cent higher at 5,714.6 as the second-tier FTSE 250 index made gains of 0.7 per cent to 8,957.7, a new all-time high. Next, which said full year profit would be above market expectations and reported a 9.8 per cent increase in total sales for the period from August 1 to December 24, closed 10.3 per cent stronger at 1680p.' - I believe it. Same with M&S. But there's very few other retailers that I anticipate doing well this year, so I'm not fooled. The retail sector is going to take a hammering so choose your stocks wisely.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday's dictated a small early rise followed by a dip. Thursdays: from what I can discern, it's running out of steam. It looks like a minor fall or will finish close to its opening position.

Companies reporting:

British Airways BAY.L [Expensive and too much competition. But not worth shorting at this stage]

Redrow RDW.L

Keller KLR.L

Anybody SB 'Next' yesterday? If you did, like me, you'll be swigging your favourite tipple tonight.

Economic Data:

09:30 UK Service Sector PMI [not anticipating any surprises here]

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW continued its rise, and yesterdays major rise added an initial surge to the UK market, but its interesting to note that the FTSE did little thereafter; company and economic data will not cause a stir; charts indicate the markets running out of steam.

Early gut feeling: I'll go with the charts.

Will I bet? Lost 36pts today [a foolish mistake], but still up on the month. I'm off work tomorrow so I'll watch the market open. Still waiting and looking for that much anticipated dip.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours


UK

 

[Mornington Crescent]

stand by for a flood of investment literature to come through the letter box.

with the turn of the year all the bad news is now out of the way and fund managers can produce 5 year
charts and statistics showing how wonderful they have been.

lol

 

[ukhero]

General comments:

It seems that most of the world Indices are struggling to make any decent headway today.

FTSE: doing much as I anticipated by hovering close to its opening. At the moment, I would say it's waiting for the DOW to open.

DOW: SB companies have it down 19pts. Is it going to slide back today?

Nikkie: down 135, and [the one to watch for making or loosing bundles this year.

UK

 

[downbytheriver7]

5650

My first target on the short side...

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE Friday, 6th January 2006

Thursday's results:

Open: 5714.

Close: 5691, down 23pts. There I was, debating at what point to go Short when the dog starts to whine. I returned an hour later from a walk to find I've missed the drop! I want to kick that f###ing dog!

Range: 5686 - 5722.

Last 5 trading days: up 69pts.

On the month: up 73pts.

In all, I anticipate the month ending between 5-10% up. Bold statement, yup!

Dow: 10,882, up 2pts.

Last 5 trading days: up 87pts.

On the month: up 164pts.

News items of note:

Worth a read:
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060104/244/g0gst.html

HONG KONG (AFP) - 'Rival Asian Tigers Hong Kong and Singapore have again been rated the world's freest economies in an annual report published by the right-wing American think-tank, The Heritage Foundation. The ranking by the Washington-based organisation puts Hong Kong at the top for a 12th successive year -- in stark contrast to other recent gauges of economic freedom that have downgraded the southern Chinese territory. The Heritage Foundation said Hong Kong, a British colony until 1997, had extended its lead at the top of its Index of Economic Freedom, ahead of second-placed rival Singapore. Describing Hong Kong as the "poster economy for economic freedom around the world" the foundation and co-sponsors, the Wall Street Journal Asia, awarded the city a score of 1.28 out of 5, where 0 is equal to total economic freedom. Last year it scored 1.35.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursday's stated the FTSE was running out of steam with a possibility of a minor fall or, a finish close to its opening position. Friday's, no clear indication but does err towards a possibility of a small early rise.

Companies reporting:

Wimpey

Economic Data:

None.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW's had a see-saw day finishing almost at evens, but tomorrow there's a strong possibility of a drop; charts are not showing any major movement one way or another; No major company or economic data; it's been said that the miners dragged the FTSE down today, I say they will either remain static or fall a touch further.

Early gut feeling: early rise, late fall.

Will I bet? Went Long @ 5690 prior to the market closing and I've capped it at 12pts profit. Looking for a drop later in the day.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[leovirgo]

The FTSE Friday, 6th January 2006

On the month: up 73pts.

In all, I anticipate the month ending between 5-10% up. Bold statement, yup!

Hi UK,

Many congrats for your consistent work. Just by the way, you expect FSTE to end around 5-10% up on the month which is 1.05x5618=5898 to 1.10x5618=6179? 5% is 280 pts? Energy and miners carried the weight pretty much for most of last year. Would like to know any reasoning behind your bold prediction. [ The reason for my question is .. I got my hands burnt last year when I short it in July/August after a long 13 week non-stop rally which started in May.. it only pulled back for two weeks then went up.. boom to 5500.. that's when I realised my TA is not working for FTSE and avoided it. ] Thanks..

LVG

 

[downbytheriver7]

Hi UK,

Many congrats for your consistent work. Just by the way, you expect FSTE to end around 5-10% up on the month which is 1.05x5618=5898 to 1.10x5618=6179? 5% is 280 pts? Energy and miners carried the weight pretty much for most of last year. Would like to know any reasoning behind your bold prediction. [ The reason for my question is .. I got my hands burnt last year when I short it in July/August after a long 13 week non-stop rally which started in May.. it only pulled back for two weeks then went up.. boom to 5500.. that's when I realised my TA is not working for FTSE and avoided it. ] Thanks..

LVG

5900 to 6200 is very bold, I have been looking at the short side here and even if my stop gets taken out at 5725 I would be amazed to see the FTSE go 6200 by the end of the month - is that not near an all time high? 5800 or 6000 is probably best case.

 

[mark twain uk]

a lot of people with shorts have stops around the 5725 mark, so if the market gets there it would carry on until 740-750 so that it can clear all the stops

 

[Morris]

Downbytheriver, FTSE all time high was 6950.6

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^FTSE&b=20&a=11&c=1999&e=20&d=00&f=2000&g=d

 

[kriesau]

a lot of people with shorts have stops around the 5725 mark, so if the market gets there it would carry on until 740-750 so that it can clear all the stops

How do you know this ?

 

[downbytheriver7]

Downbytheriver, FTSE all time high was 6950.6

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^FTSE&b=20&a=11&c=1999&e=20&d=00&f=2000&g=d

cheers for that - maybe 5% isn't that that unreasonable but still think 5800-6000 seems more likely.

 

[mark twain uk]

How do you know this ?

just a hunch, it's a figure that was mentioned in a lot of places by many people, a move above 725 would apparently signal a new rally

 

[downbytheriver7]

neutral

a lot of people with shorts have stops around the 5725 mark, so if the market gets there it would carry on until 740-750 so that it can clear all the stops

Well i closed my short early for a very small gain. Will review the charts over the weekend and see how monday fairs. The US markets seem to have all broken out over resistance. Shoudl be interesting.