The Darksiding of Forex

[Fish]

Hi jacinto,
Currently see price as oscillating about a RN 9300 axis, and am waiting for a resolution of a triangle. I have attached a 5 min chart of the overnight as well, which is quite interesting. I am trying to stop thinking in terms in terms of buyers and sellers. For every buyer there is a seller, and vice versa. What matters, is which way is the crowd moving. What is their impulse? And the “smart” money, what do they think the crowds impulse is? What signs are they looking at?

Zagreb,
Good post indeed. It took me a long time to figure out there is no point in prediction. The name f the game is to follow price in its twists and turns. It was a William O'Neill thing "Don't ask where the market is going..ask what it is doing right now"

BTW, I found a good quote this morning,whilst trying to alleviate the tedium.

Dbp quoting Wykcoff

In a certain sense, reading charts is like reading music, in which you endeavor to interpret correctly the composer's ideas and the expression of his art. Just so a chart of the averages, or of a single stock, reflects the ideas, hopes, ambitions and purposes of the mass mind operating in the market, or of a manipulator handling a single stock.

The study of charts is not as some people claim, the mere identification of certain labeled patterns made by the actions of stocks. That sort of thing borders on the mechanical and does little to aid in the development of one's judgment. But when a student undertakes to read from his charts the purposes and objective of those who are responsible for a stock's action in the market, he is beginning to see, in a true light, the meaning of scientific stock speculation.

RW

RW

 

[a_gnome]

OK, will try to have a go at Indecision-balance question:

remember, this is hindsight, and it is an interpretation. Hope others will join in the discussion.

Chart is GBPUSD, daily chart, but analysing monthly bars. Doji printed in January, after big uptrend (1.72 all the way up to 1.99), and at multiyear highs. So, doji is printed at a decision level.

Question is:

Is there indecision, is there balance? .

my reading (obviously in hindsight, knowing what happened during the last week) is in the chart.

Jacinto

Hi guys,
Have just found this thread and spent a fascinating few hours going through it all. It's a great thread - shame that Mr. Marcus had to leave as I really enjoyed his insight. I don't pretend to have any great insight myself but would like to comment on the whole doji balance/indecision thing.

Referring to jacinto's daily chart with the monthly bar areas overlayed I would say that though they are both technically monthly doji's two different things are happening there. In the first one it looks like an auction process with the price first moving down where buyers then come in to push the price back up before the reverse happening to the upside. The net result is that the market tests the downside and the upside and ends up back where it started. This I would suggest is an example of a market that is balanced but not indecisive. The buyers agree on where it is cheap and the sellers on where it is expensive.

In the second monthly bar there is far less "coherent" movement. It spends a lot of time drifting no where. This looks more like random market drift rather than any auction process. You can see a lot of "indecisive" candles on each day. The net effect happens to be that it ends back up where it started but this looks more like lack of interest or indecision rather than any balanced market.

I would therefore like to suggest that a doji can represent either balance or indecision depending on what goes on within the bar.

 

[jacinto]

Hi guys,
Have just found this thread and spent a fascinating few hours going through it all. It's a great thread - shame that Mr. Marcus had to leave as I really enjoyed his insight. I don't pretend to have any great insight myself but would like to comment on the whole doji balance/indecision thing.

Referring to jacinto's daily chart with the monthly bar areas overlayed I would say that though they are both technically monthly doji's two different things are happening there. In the first one it looks like an auction process with the price first moving down where buyers then come in to push the price back up before the reverse happening to the upside. The net result is that the market tests the downside and the upside and ends up back where it started. This I would suggest is an example of a market that is balanced but not indecisive. The buyers agree on where it is cheap and the sellers on where it is expensive.

In the second monthly bar there is far less "coherent" movement. It spends a lot of time drifting no where. This looks more like random market drift rather than any auction process. You can see a lot of "indecisive" candles on each day. The net effect happens to be that it ends back up where it started but this looks more like lack of interest or indecision rather than any balanced market.

I would therefore like to suggest that a doji can represent either balance or indecision depending on what goes on within the bar.

Hi AG,

I like your explanation. And agree with your conclusion. I think you are getting to the real issue. IT depends in context, and in the way it is formed.

Jacinto

Will post the 240 min doji chart on 15 min bars in a minute.

 

[jacinto]

THe Cable chart (say, 15 minute chart, analysing 240 min behaviour) is showing a perfect case of doji, and will be prime for indecision-balance analyisis.

I will post chart later. The cut of the chart for analysis will be at 10:30 GMT probably 11 gmt.

j

edit: chart posted is the cut at 10 30. analysis to come later in the day. the point of doing so, is to try to go to live analysis, even if it is done ex post.

my view at the moment is: buyers wanting to bring price back to its range (the january doji)
sellers defending the break.

indecision is happening at a relevant point. My view is that the buyers will win the day.

RIght,

so this is the chart analysed, prior, and after the 10:30 GMT cut. The cut of the chart is at 16:20 GMT.

I am now unsure of who will win the day. This one turned out a good excercise to learn when to stand aside from a market.

J

EDIT: just added same chart with a cut at 22:30 GMT. seems like my initial bias was right to a point.

This doesnt look like indecision or balance. it looks more like the big boys having a rest til they know where to shoot.

 

[jacinto]

well,

got to say, this topic has a lot of food for thought.
What is indecision? What is balance? Does it mean the big boys are having a pint and let the small fish run the show? Where does it happen? How do we find the "decision levels" where it is most likely to happen? How do we identify if it is happening ?

THis is me talking to myself:
Want to darkside? Better learn where does "indecision" happen before you want to learn about intent.

Thank you Mr Marcus. That was probably the best question, because if you know how to answer it, then one can move on to deal with intent.

Jacinto.

Update on chart posted at 2230 GMT with a cut at 23GMT

 

[kenobi]

Hi, my first post,

How does one know where the market is going?
Are there any type fo price formations, or candles that signal if a market will end up going in a particular direction?
Which is the best time frame to see this? Can one use different time frames for different purposes? (say, 4hr for trend, 60 min for momentum, 15 min to understand when the market wants to move? )

sorry if my questions seem too basic.

 

[kenobi]

Sorry if I didnt say that I already read the thread. By saying "where is the market going" I mean after having analysed the chart, having seen the key support-resistance levels, etc. etc.

I didnt want the initial question to sound too obvious or basic.

 

[useful idiot]

Interesting reading.

 

[wasp]

What are you trying to gauge from 'indecision' Jacinto?

 

[jacinto]

What are you trying to gauge from 'indecision' Jacinto?

hi wasp, to get to the point, what i am trying to gauge from indecision is to understand when and where there is lack of decision, which is the only meaning i can find for the term. if i can understand "lack of decision" i will be able to move on and focus on the opposite: decision.

j

 

[jacinto]

what is so funny? if you have nothing to contribute here, i suggest you dont post.

 

[jacinto]

When you get to understand what i am laughing at, you will be a better trader?

That's all i have for you up and coming darksiders.

LS.

you have entered a thread in which every member has been treated and has treated others with respect.

you have not done that.

if your purpose is to engage somebody into a fight etc.etc., you will not achieve your aim, not from me.

As of now, you are on ignore.

 

[fun2trade]

to post # 200

I agree. We're all trying learn and help each other here. Please be respectful and keep your childish behaviour at home.

 

[rainman2]

hi wasp, to get to the point, what i am trying to gauge from indecision is to understand when and where there is lack of decision, which is the only meaning i can find for the term. if i can understand "lack of decision" i will be able to move on and focus on the opposite: decision.

j

jacinto,

imo, there is never indecision. Sure it might seem so on a certain time frame, but when you look inside that indecisive candle, you can better see the supply/demand battle.
Here's an example of what I mean on ym (sorry its not forex but darksiding none the less)

if you could for this example, please disregard the gap up on thursday and you would have an indecision candle for the day. But, dropping to the 15 min tells a different story where clearly you can see weak demand and strong supply coming into the market.
This is evidenced by the length and velocity of the up moves(purple channels) and length and velocity of the down moves(light blue channels)
One could argue that the whole day was a transfer from pros to weak hands because they knew that demand was weak. Even the employment report friday morning would not bring in enough demand to hand off their supply. This came true as their was no follow through after the employment report.

So the question now becomes, did the pros do all that for 60ym points (12390 to 12330)? did the pros cover and then buy again at the 12330 level or are they sucking in more weak longs in the 12390 area so that they can take price back down and test last weeks lows.
I for one think the later.

rainman2

ps...I'm really digging this thread and hope it gets traction and develops further. This has been my first attempt at darksiding and really like that you have nothing to blame your mistakes(misinterpretations) on. No volume,bollinger bands, moving averages....(ooops, sorry wasp

). Just price and what its trying to tell you.

 

[wasp]

................No volume,bollinger bands, moving averages....(ooops, sorry wasp

). Just price and what its trying to tell you.

Oi! steady now, I may be on holiday but still about!! Nowt wrong with having a strat running in the background to pay the bills and keep the parachutes above my head! (its a damn good one too, even if I say so myself! A beaut on the 4hr).....

Carry on, I'll join in next month....! :cheesy:

 

[wasp]

hi wasp, to get to the point, what i am trying to gauge from indecision is to understand when and where there is lack of decision, which is the only meaning i can find for the term. if i can understand "lack of decision" i will be able to move on and focus on the opposite: decision.

j

All I'm thinking is 'indecision' tells you whats happening NOW but not necessarily what will be. IMO.

 

[rainman2]

Oi! steady now, I may be on holiday but still about!! Nowt wrong with having a strat running in the background to pay the bills and keep the parachutes above my head! (its a damn good one too, even if I say so myself! A beaut on the 4hr).....

Carry on, I'll join in next month....! :cheesy:

Enjoy man, no disrespect intended.
just too easy to pass up

 

[rols]

Pin bar action on GBP.

All aboard!

 

[jacinto]

All I'm thinking is 'indecision' tells you whats happening NOW.

agree with this

but not necessarily what will be. IMO.

agree with that too.


my point about decision is not related to what will happen next, but for learning process.

you can be flat, long or short. we always forget that there those 3 possibilities.

indecision-balance, whatever you want to call it, is the moment to stay flat.

decision time, is the time to be either long or short.

that is what i meant. apologies if i wasnt clear enough.

j

 

[jacinto]

jacinto,

imo, there is never indecision. Sure it might seem so on a certain time frame, but when you look inside that indecisive candle, you can better see the supply/demand battle.
Here's an example of what I mean on ym (sorry its not forex but darksiding none the less)

if you could for this example, please disregard the gap up on thursday and you would have an indecision candle for the day. But, dropping to the 15 min tells a different story where clearly you can see weak demand and strong supply coming into the market.
This is evidenced by the length and velocity of the up moves(purple channels) and length and velocity of the down moves(light blue channels)
One could argue that the whole day was a transfer from pros to weak hands because they knew that demand was weak. Even the employment report friday morning would not bring in enough demand to hand off their supply. This came true as their was no follow through after the employment report.

So the question now becomes, did the pros do all that for 60ym points (12390 to 12330)? did the pros cover and then buy again at the 12330 level or are they sucking in more weak longs in the 12390 area so that they can take price back down and test last weeks lows.
I for one think the later.

rainman2

ps...I'm really digging this thread and hope it gets traction and develops further. This has been my first attempt at darksiding and really like that you have nothing to blame your mistakes(misinterpretations) on. No volume,bollinger bands, moving averages....(ooops, sorry wasp

). Just price and what its trying to tell you.

hi rainman

by all means, i dont necessarily think that forex only in this case. although it is preferred.

seeing your chart, and seeing the doji you printed, i agree, it doesent seem to have indecision, actually the opposite.

I also would like to say that I am starting to hate the word indecision. it is used and abused whenever a doji appears.

AGnome made a good conclusion about it several pages ago. have a look.

I really dont want to get stuck by the indecision issue. it is thorny as it is. Mr. Marcus asked a question regarding a "textbook coinage", and the answer eventually came out as "it is relative". So, since there are so many answers to the topic, and depending on a case by case basis, i guess it really comes down to interpretation of when there is and when there isnt indecision, where it is likely to arise, etc.

anyway, good post BTW.

J

edit, a view of your chart. got no clue what security is it, so no idea if it kept going up. looks like a breakout and pullback, while making another doji-spinning top type of bar.