Crap Buddist
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,458
- Likes
- 289
Dutchsiding Forex its Wonderfuls & Powerfuls ....
Best buy?
Worst sell :idea:
Best buy in trend?
worst sell in non trend :idea:
The truth of this will stand any examination. Its the circle of the whole, the ying and the yang, to & from, all that is and all that is not.
The long and short of it.
Dutchsiding Forex .
Best buy?
Worst sell :idea:
Best buy in trend?
worst sell in non trend :idea:
The truth of this will stand any examination. Its the circle of the whole, the ying and the yang, to & from, all that is and all that is not.
The long and short of it.
Dutchsiding Forex .
Joules MM1
Established member
- Messages
- 648
- Likes
- 142
zagreb said:
true for you and not necessarily for others, yeah? Supposition, predetermining or postulation........whatever the word is.......the action of thought remains......I never trade a live trade without surmising that SOMETHING is going to happen, occur, ensue, unfurl in the next moment of which I then take that and use it as the premise of my entrance or exit or not taking action at all.........you see you have unveiled the first frailty any trader.......the same one I had........that what is definitive for you MUST be definitive and set for others.......when you speak you may only speak for yourself? (yes, that's a question, although, when I speak, I only ever speak for myself)
think on this.......spending 100s or 10000s of hours watching others may only result in a complete waist of time if the urgency to understand motive and desire does not exist for the viewer.......of course, again, I may only speak for myself........you may still be right........although, you are not being invited to do anything other than take on the POSSIBILITY that up until now another tac maybe to your advantage........this may bring up a thought-provoking question for you; if what you say is of no use then 1 why bother commenting on it and 2 what difference does it make to your trading that someone else does what you say AND produce good results........you see, this is not about you it's about the person on the other side of the trade..........
For a second time, a contribtor has come to this site and offered nuggets that have been treated as dung-pellets........you get what you push for.........
an observation
MM1
agreedJoules MM1 said:true for you and not necessarily for others, yeah? Supposition, predetermining or postulation........whatever the word is.......the action of thought remains......I never trade a live trade without surmising that SOMETHING is going to happen, occur, ensue, unfurl in the next moment of which I then take that and use it as the premise of my entrance or exit or not taking action at all.........you see you have unveiled the first frailty any trader.......the same one I had........that what is definitive for you MUST be definitive and set for others.......when you speak you may only speak for yourself? (yes, that's a question, although, when I speak, I only ever speak for myself)
think on this.......spending 100s or 10000s of hours watching others may only result in a complete waist of time if the urgency to understand motive and desire does not exist for the viewer.......of course, again, I may only speak for myself........you may still be right........although, you are not being invited to do anything other than take on the POSSIBILITY that up until now another tac maybe to your advantage........this may bring up a thought-provoking question for you; if what you say is of no use then 1 why bother commenting on it and 2 what difference does it make to your trading that someone else does what you say AND produce good results........you see, this is not about you it's about the person on the other side of the trade..........
For a second time, a contribtor has come to this site and offered nuggets that have been treated as dung-pellets........you get what you push for.........
an observation
MM1
zagreb said:heh Joules
it mustn't be that hard
I bother commenting because I feel philanthropic
So, you claim that you can predict mkt next move, right?
Thank you for your participation.
If you are going to add value to the thread, you will be welcome. we dont need confrontation here.
thank you
j
counter_violent
Legendary member
- Messages
- 12,638
- Likes
- 3,780
zagreb said:
Probabilities is the game right...... probable outcomes...based on the price history of all that has gone before.....why is that so unpredictable going forwards in time?.....there doesn't even need to be a target ....but we do need to recognise our exits and entries once they are reached....get my drift ?
rols
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,621
- Likes
- 336
zagreb said:
Excuse me. That is your perception and you're welcome to it. :cheesy:
As for nothing can be predicted I have a pretty good idea of what your response will be.
You know what would make these threads much more likely to stay on course and to attract and keep the serious traders who have something to offer rather than time wasting.
I propose self governing threads. Anybody that has say posted three times on a thread is able to cast a vote on what he/she considers is a derailing/not relevant post and when a percentage of the total three times posters agree that the said post contributes nothing it is automatically zapped.
I for one am increasingly reluctant to spend my valuable time contributing to a forum where the few tarnish the many.
zupcon
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,162
- Likes
- 322
zagreb said:
Great post from MM and sorry to see you going, you'll be missed. Zagreb seams to be getting a bit of criticism for this post but I do think he raised a reasonable point. I certainly dont agree with his comments regarding prediction, the worlds full of predictive models that operate with enough accuracy to be useful, and markets are no exception.
I do think there's possibly some merit in his comments regarding the dubious value of watching other traders as an aid to understanding the behaviour of weak v strong hands. Most traders in chat rooms will admittedly be weak hands, but do they really act in unison or so predictably ?
Im not even sure watching calls in a chat room is actually observing "weak hands", more just a study of frightened rabbits caught in the spotlights of an approaching car rather than a study of the behaviour of traders who've made an incorrect call.
I would assume that the distribution of the trades and market sentiment of those in chat rooms is far more likely to randomly distributed, and furthermore it would be almost impossible to determine enough information to make any type of statistically significant study.
I can see the benefit in this analysis, I just dont think a chat room necessarily provides the right environment
regards
zu
so what are "weak" hands and "strong" hands?
The words carry an emotional charge and I am not sure if the behaviour of these particpants is congruent with this connotation. Are weak hands the small dogs, the retail traders, and the strong hands the big dogs, the institutional traders? Does weak hands refer to an emotional dimension to the approach ? (its going up, I must go long - look, look, its going down, I must get short). Or perhaps, it is because weak hands want to get on board anywhere, whereas instuitutional traders only get on (or off) board at defined points for defined reasons? If so, what does this mean when you look at the yen the last few days? That looks like institutional traders buying back yen at any price, as long as its quick, and preferably yesterday. Does that now make them weak hands?
I liked this bit from mrmarcus as well
So many questions, I'm sorry I haven't got any answers.............
The words carry an emotional charge and I am not sure if the behaviour of these particpants is congruent with this connotation. Are weak hands the small dogs, the retail traders, and the strong hands the big dogs, the institutional traders? Does weak hands refer to an emotional dimension to the approach ? (its going up, I must go long - look, look, its going down, I must get short). Or perhaps, it is because weak hands want to get on board anywhere, whereas instuitutional traders only get on (or off) board at defined points for defined reasons? If so, what does this mean when you look at the yen the last few days? That looks like institutional traders buying back yen at any price, as long as its quick, and preferably yesterday. Does that now make them weak hands?
I liked this bit from mrmarcus as well
I can't get my head around it (yet..), because it is discussing intent, and drawing inferences from marks on a screen, and they way those marks are being formed. It reminds me of trackers in the wild, who can tell how many people have passed, and how big they were, and what they were wearing, all from bent bits of grass along the way, whereas townies are still trying to work out which way is up. Do we need to know about intent? It would be jolly useful, but can we get along fine without? And how do we "see" intent from the development on the chart?mr.marcus said:
So many questions, I'm sorry I haven't got any answers.............
jacinto said:
OK, will try to have a go at Indecision-balance question:
remember, this is hindsight, and it is an interpretation. Hope others will join in the discussion.
Chart is GBPUSD, daily chart, but analysing monthly bars. Doji printed in January, after big uptrend (1.72 all the way up to 1.99), and at multiyear highs. So, doji is printed at a decision level.
Question is:
Is there indecision, is there balance? .
my reading (obviously in hindsight, knowing what happened during the last week) is in the chart.
Jacinto
Attachments
I've been thinking about it some more. Trying to understand process and intent. And trying to find another way of looking at it.jacinto said:
In my head, I turned it into a practical 3D scenario, because that 's the way I think (allegedly) , or "watch the movie" I sometimes call it
. Like this. You have courtyard with a big square table in it. To the North is a queue of people who already have merchandise, and want to sell. They are in a queue (usually..) with the higher prices at the back. To the South is another queue of people who want to be buyers, they don't have merchandise, but want to queue at the table, with the higher prices at the front and the lower prices at the back. Above their heads is an electronic sign, with the prices that the 2 people nearest to the table are willing to trade at, the bid and offer prices. To the sides are more people, who may or may not have any merchandise. But they can see the table, and can come to the table from the side to deal with either party as long as they don’t quibble and just take the price that is offered. And you and me, we’re out on the street, standing on the pavement thinking about the government, to quote Bob Dylan, looking at a relay of the prices. ( In reality, in forex the situation is not “merchandise / no merchandise” but “merchandise A or merchandise B”, but to understand the process, I am looking at “merchandise / no merchandise”. And the funny thing about the merchandise is that a lot of people want to get it, so that once they’ve got it, they can get rid of it to someone else for more (or less if you are short) money. Funny old world. You can’t get rid of it unless you’ve got it, and once you’ve got it, you want to get rid of it again.)So what happens when a doji prints? The prices above the table fluctuate around a intermediate level. They go up a bit, stop, come down a bit, stop and wobble about a mean level. And what is happening? The guys at the side may or may not have merchandise, but right now, they see no reason to go to the table. Or if they are going to the table, they are going both to buy and sell – they are not applying disproportionate pressure. The flow is even. They are pretty content with where they’re at. And the guys North and South of the table aren’t sniffing anything unusual in the wind either. They not getting any whispers from their mates in the banks. They are just kind of bumbling along, servicing their regular clients way beyond the Courtyard, no undue pressure.
So, is this indecision or is this balance? Maybe it is neither. Maybe it is just a regular flow.
Where it gets interesting, of course, is when people need the merchandise, and the whispers get to the guys at the tables, and the crowd at the side all want to get there first (and we’re on the pavement singing “your debutante knows what you need, but I know what you want… oh mama, can this really be the end…..” )
PS Cable just broke North of its range and is at 350. Quite interesting how there is so much action in the Asian time space lately.
From my point of view market is fair lady but rather 'touchy' - she doesn't like predictions about her next move, so no predictions here. Additionally, wrong guessing is not good for trader's mental health and self-confidence. What's left is preparation for possible outcomes shown on Jacinto's chart. When I say preparation I mean pure reaction, not some mindful guessing games.
First outcome may be continuation of the uptrend, based on formed bullish flag pattern. Ofcourse, one would need confirmation of newly established up-move (at least one higher-high higher-low wave formation among other)
Second outcome may be fastening of the downtrend started by forming same pattern - now seen as downtrending channel pattern - one would await for price to come to upper channel line (resistance) and turn down again.
Price action started from Dec 5 2006 can cernainly be considered as indecision time, but it can also be considered as preparation for next move. It isn't important how we call this. It is important that we spot probable outcomes soon as possible and to prepare for them. Thus reaction and not thinking about. There are many traders that like 'intellectuality' of this business. Unfortunately for them, there is not much to think about.
Not that hard at all.
regards
First outcome may be continuation of the uptrend, based on formed bullish flag pattern. Ofcourse, one would need confirmation of newly established up-move (at least one higher-high higher-low wave formation among other)
Second outcome may be fastening of the downtrend started by forming same pattern - now seen as downtrending channel pattern - one would await for price to come to upper channel line (resistance) and turn down again.
Price action started from Dec 5 2006 can cernainly be considered as indecision time, but it can also be considered as preparation for next move. It isn't important how we call this. It is important that we spot probable outcomes soon as possible and to prepare for them. Thus reaction and not thinking about. There are many traders that like 'intellectuality' of this business. Unfortunately for them, there is not much to think about.
Not that hard at all.
regards
Last edited:
THe Cable chart (say, 15 minute chart, analysing 240 min behaviour) is showing a perfect case of doji, and will be prime for indecision-balance analyisis.
I will post chart later. The cut of the chart for analysis will be at 10:30 GMT probably 11 gmt.
j
edit: chart posted is the cut at 10 30. analysis to come later in the day. the point of doing so, is to try to go to live analysis, even if it is done ex post.
my view at the moment is: buyers wanting to bring price back to its range (the january doji)
sellers defending the break.
indecision is happening at a relevant point. My view is that the buyers will win the day.
I will post chart later. The cut of the chart for analysis will be at 10:30 GMT probably 11 gmt.
j
edit: chart posted is the cut at 10 30. analysis to come later in the day. the point of doing so, is to try to go to live analysis, even if it is done ex post.
my view at the moment is: buyers wanting to bring price back to its range (the january doji)
sellers defending the break.
indecision is happening at a relevant point. My view is that the buyers will win the day.
Attachments
Last edited:
