The Darksiding of Forex

[jacinto]

this is comparing apples with oranges.....remember the original point was the incorrect attribution of the term "indecision" relating purely to the outcome of price....ie in a selected time slot price open approximately equals close(dojis and hammers)....however it has moved it onto "lack of decision" also....now this is now volume based and another topic.

its quite ironic really as what text books feed as indecision are actually some of the most decisive occurrences in trading.

hi mark,

i guess you are right. it is apples and oranges. I didnt phrase it properly, as mentioned above, and probably I still used a wrong term (lack of decision). Didnt know that term would be a " volume issue".

What I wanted to answer to Wasps post was actually about knowing when to be flat or when to be in a position.

regards,

j

Edit: brought this last part of my reply to the indecision question. thought it was relevant to my learning. For my money, when the below happens, is when I must be flat. I again misused a term, and brought confusion to the discussion. apologies to the rest of the readers.

Indecision, as wrong a term as it is, ironically, happens at decision levels, where both sides (buyers and sellers) have no clue what is going to happen. REading indecision is probably the most difficult part to read about price action.
regards,

jacinto

 

[Quercus]

Hi again MM,
I'll attempt to answer this as it's something that I constantly battle with, as it rears it's head every time we try to analyse direction, intent, state of trend, and then from our own perspective - Risk versus Reward.
Perhaps the delineation between weak and strong hands is what causes all the apparent "indecision" which is evident by the wave motion of the market. Indecision to me is not even a consideration as the market is a zero sum game as we all know. Mr Marcus is absolutely right when he states that ALL are decisive - it's simply a matter of how long everyone is prepared to play their own game!
This brings me to my idea surrounding strong and weak hands. Weak hands are lower timeframe players for one reason or another - some by default in their methods of scalping say, and others by way of their lower levels of risk tolerance. Weak hands help to create the waves which strong hands have set in place by producing the "swell" of the originating wave.
The strong hands will act against their real "intent" - they have to sell in order to buy back in larger volume, or vice versa depending on market direction. This is a constant question I ask, as it is clear to me that bigger players have the capitalisation to do this both with themselves and against the other big players. I've always wondered if there is any unofficial coercion involved between big players or do they just know what's happening, due to knowledge and experience.
Not sure if this is clear, but it's how I thought it as I typed!
Good to see you back prodding us with questions.
Cheers
Q

 

[jacinto]

mark,

i really want to answer or comment. at the moment I cant. I want to give it the attention and thought it deserves. will post in the evening.

good day
j

 

[Fish]

heres something else to consider......

charts are merely abstract ways of trying to make sense of a market.

I've often thought that our monkey brains find it very difficult to deal with a non-stop flow of information. Maybe an evolutionary trait? Hence the desire to split it up into chunks and compare one bit with another bit (byte??)

 

[rols]

heres something else to consider......

as candlesticks,bars etc are just incomplete ways of boxing in the market to give most viewers a sense of false knowing.....it becomes obvious that only understanding the actual make up and reasons within ...is the only way to release this abstract nature these snapshots create.

have you ever considered if you take a hammer or doji and create a new start and end point but with the same time snapshot......they no longer exist in the same form....does this mean the so called indecision people like to attribute to patterns no longer exists?

charts are merely abstract ways of trying to make sense of a market.candlestick patterns and chart patterns mean nothing without appreciating the intent and flow within.understand this and charts become merely a door to the truth beneath.not the truth itself as books would like you believe.

To add further to this excellent post....

These observations embrace some of the philosophical paradoxes of Ockham's razor and Wittgensteins reductionalism theory and a concept called logical positivism.

Any thing, in this case a dogi candle, is called sense data, pictures in our minds of things of the external world that we attach false premises to.

The problem we have is that one thing is appearing to be another is our perception and it is therefore wrong to imply it is that thing.

Unfortunately our perceptual filters have already hijacked the true essence of the thing.
We need to distinguish between these two perspectives otherwise we will not achieve neutrality in our judgement.

If we may consider that we create what we see and our perception then filters that further then how can we differentiate between imagination and reality?

 

[barjon]

heres something else to consider......

as candlesticks,bars etc are just incomplete ways of boxing in the market to give most viewers a sense of false knowing.....it becomes obvious that only understanding the actual make up and reasons within ...is the only way to release this abstract nature these snapshots create.

have you ever considered if you take a hammer or doji and create a new start and end point but with the same time snapshot......they no longer exist in the same form....does this mean the so called indecision people like to attribute to patterns no longer exists?

charts are merely abstract ways of trying to make sense of a market.candlestick patterns and chart patterns mean nothing without appreciating the intent and flow within.understand this and charts become merely a door to the truth beneath.not the truth itself as books would like you believe.

mr.m

Do you think there is a distinction to be drawn between "legitimate" trading periods - day, week, month - where people are opening and closing their books and "random" periods - hr, 15 mins, 5 mins etc?

good trading

jon

 

[Crap Buddist]

Cos when I hold her in my arms I feel like Fred Astaire 1,2,3

To add further to this excellent post....

These observations embrace some of the philosophical paradoxes of Ockham's razor and Wittgensteins reductionalism theory and a concept called logical positivism.

Any thing, in this case a dogi candle, is called sense data, pictures in our minds of things of the external world that we attach false premises to.

The problem we have is that one thing is appearing to be another is our perception and it is therefore wrong to imply it is that thing.

Unfortunately our perceptual filters have already hijacked the true essence of the thing.
We need to distinguish between these two perspectives otherwise we will not achieve neutrality in our judgement.

If we may consider that we create what we see and our perception then filters that further then how can we differentiate between imagination and reality?

Maybe the answer is when we stop focusing on ourselves and shift focus on the market.

Is there a cycle?, initially market focus, then self focus to enable/ facillitate market focus.

Yikes 1,2,3 again. the trinity again.
market, self, market. hmm now can it be done, self, then market ? taking a 3 step and reducing it to a 2 step? still a dance, yet 1,2,3 1,2,3 seems more rythmic and sexy over 1,2 1,2, that sounds like a bloody sound test.

 

[Crap Buddist]

hmm, the 3 step to get to ? 1 position, Market. Wait a minute, can it be a 1 step, Market.?

Well id say it depends on the environment, I mean o.k. so your tutor is being or assuming ,removing ,dnying a step for the individual, is this better for the individual, to experience the non experience of all steps. ?

Well, the tutor then if teaching should? help (by teaching an understanding of the nature of each of the steps,) the individual student to experience all the steps for themselves and learn by experience.

Rather than 1+1=2 ok class, 1+1=2 why sir ? "shut it Robinson, any more trouble and your done for"

"Sir". :|

So, looks like a 3 step is best in the long run? or at least a 2 .

 

[trendie]

heres something else to consider......

as candlesticks,bars etc are just incomplete ways of boxing in the market to give most viewers a sense of false knowing.....it becomes obvious that only understanding the actual make up and reasons within ...is the only way to release this abstract nature these snapshots create.

have you ever considered if you take a hammer or doji and create a new start and end point but with the same time snapshot......they no longer exist in the same form....does this mean the so called indecision people like to attribute to patterns no longer exists?

charts are merely abstract ways of trying to make sense of a market.candlestick patterns and chart patterns mean nothing without appreciating the intent and flow within.understand this and charts become merely a door to the truth beneath.not the truth itself as books would like you believe.

note: my emphasis added.

the highlighted question I have been musing over for a while.

do we not release ourselves from these boxes when we apply "blending bars", and learn to see the "principle" of dojis and hammers by looking, for example, at a 5-min chart, but learn to see dojis and hammers that cover several hours?

I think jacinto has done this with one of his screen-shots of daily bars, but he overlaid a doji, from the perspective of a month.

 

[rainman2]

So the question now becomes, did the pros do all that for 60ym points (12390 to 12330)? did the pros cover and then buy again at the 12330 level or are they sucking in more weak longs in the 12390 area so that they can take price back down and test last weeks lows.
I for one think the later.

rainman2

Just price and what its trying to tell you.

Although I didn't call the move back up to the 12440 level on ym, it was my understanding of the price action of the prior few days that helped me antcipate what happened today.

Who's winning the battle and at what price levels are they fighting it at. Intent, never indecision.

2 months ago, I would have read this thread and said to myself "what the hell are these guys talking about?"
Today, thanks to mr marcus's knowledge and patience(neverending stupid newbie questions), I firmly believe I won't end up a perpetual 'weak hand'

For anyone who's not familiar, mr marcus has reposted his wot series. Just search "wot reunion". It will be time well spent.

Open your mind, NOT another book.

 

[sandpiper]

Although I didn't call the move back up to the 12440 level on ym, it was my understanding of the price action of the prior few days that helped me antcipate what happened today.

Who's winning the battle and at what price levels are they fighting it at. Intent, never indecision.

2 months ago, I would have read this thread and said to myself "what the hell are these guys talking about?"
Today, thanks to mr marcus's knowledge and patience(neverending stupid newbie questions), I firmly believe I won't end up a perpetual 'weak hand'

For anyone who's not familiar, mr marcus has reposted his wot series. Just search "wot reunion". It will be time well spent.

Open your mind, NOT another book.

Talking to yourself mate. First sign of madness.... Nice work...

Regards.

 

[jacinto]

Rainman,

what is YM, no clue, honest.

j

 

[jacinto]

Talking to yourself mate. First sign of madness.... Nice work...

Regards.

madness is a path to wisdom, they say.
j

 

[Hook Shot]

Rainman,

what is YM, no clue, honest.

j

Dow futures contract ?

 

[jacinto]

Dow futures contract ?

thanks,

see, proof i only see forex.

j

 

[hampy]

Talking to yourself mate. First sign of madness.... Nice work...

Regards.

Actually Rainman youre probably talking to more people than you realise, I bet I'm not the only
'lurker' on this thread :!:
Downloaded the 'wot' file last week, still working through it, sounds like it's worth it!
Cheers,
hampy

 

[wasp]

Good stuff, look forward to digging in on my return....

 

[jacinto]

this is comparing apples with oranges.....remember the original point was the incorrect attribution of the term "indecision" relating purely to the outcome of price....ie in a selected time slot price open approximately equals close(dojis and hammers)....however it has moved it onto "lack of decision" also....now this is now volume based and another topic.

its quite ironic really as what text books feed as indecision are actually some of the most decisive occurrences in trading.

OK, I will have a go at each point. I am aware this post has been previously answered by myself, and it is the time to re post. I wont edit the previous one as I want to keep in this thread the process of learning

(i.e. to know when one has made a mistake, think, and repost. I will probably make a new mistake with what i will answer, but it doesnt matter, if i am wrong, i will be told so, and after thinking, if i agree with my being wrong, i will accept it, or i will discuss it, and repost. that is learning. I dont need to save face, I didnt bring my ego to this thread)

My answer will have to be in this format, it is not aimed at being impersonal, but I want it to go to the point and I dont get things mixed (at the end of the day, English is not my language, and dont want to say something I dont mean).

1) I have to take back all I posted regarding indecision after the original answer regarding the indecision question. I stand by the original answer, and shouldnt have gone further into it on my own mixing concepts, mixing ideas, and making the mistake of going into text book stuff. That original answer, appears to have been insightful, but unfortunately I think I havent been able to build on from it.

2) A second issue was brought out and discussed by others, and it was balance and doji. I will set that aside. I think that discussion is a topic of its own.

3) I have mentioned "lack of decision". I see your point about volume. My answer here, would be similar to 2) above. It is my mistake to relate "indecision" (text book coined term") with "lack of decision". these 2 are also topics of their own.

finally, regarding the indecision, textbook stuff and the decisive times in trading, I will also want to leave for a different discussion. I think it will all end up being joined together.

I will have a go at the other questions later on.

I just needed to start from the beginning, and I think this was it.

thanks mark. making somebody think is invaluable.
jacinto

 

[jacinto]

....you talk about both sides ..buyers and sellers having no clue....do you mean ....weak and strong hands....or just weak hands on their own....the 2 are very different.....and neither is still indecision......if weak hands are unable to decide in this particular time line in mass on a market direction.....some buy some sell....they have still made decisions have they not?.....they have still predicted in their minds future market direction....however they are decisive...be it with or counter intent.a decision has been made and that equates to volume.as a collective they are "not in consensus"...this is very different to indecision.indecision is apparent in charts by the lack of volume.....in turn this will affect consistency of price movement and duration until they are once again herded...ie"in consensus"....intent is not affected by there lack of decisions or the lack of consensus.....but it will affect the manipulation which leads to herding.the sheeple are sometimes unruly ....the Shepard has to work to round them up(not in consensus)......and indeed wake them up(indecisive...sitting on the side lines)..on the whole the largest players are after the same market side.....supply or demand....this is the intent....herding helps to accommodate this.intent varies depending on the players you are looking to hitch hike on....intent is multi layered.you have to decide which players affect and dominate your style of play your have chosen.

being a true strong hand has nothing to do with the market...the market is just a sounding board....it starts in the heart,is the essence of who you are,the way you live your life,the way you understand yourself and the way you treat others..this doesnt mean you help the undeserving and ungrateful indescrimantely and indefinetly..i used to have a problem trading,taking money from others,not any more as i know my motives are true and those who lose havnt attained the qualities required..be it from lack of respect...greed....sloth...etc....all comes back to a lack of self responsibilty..,in short they deserve to lose.you get what you deserve in the market.this is about as pure as it gets.

so theres a huge question.what makes a weak hand...and what makes a strong hand.the market is just a vechile.(btw it has nothing to do with trendlines or ross hooks )......


ps....just found this thread on my travels....note the title...

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/forums/messages/10/968710.html

...and heres another....note the very fisrt post on trading dojis.....really is quite funny to see people accept what the books tell em without even enaging head...

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/forums/messages/10/613794.html

I just have to give kudos for this post. It is by far, but by far, the best post I have read in this BB.

As I said in my message to you,

this is something to read slowly, very slowly, think, then read again, think, read again, and then reply or ask a question.

Hat off from my end.

Jacinto.

edit: have tried to avoid trendlines, mixed success really. still get spooked by a trend break, but have started to ignore them and concentrate on price alone.

 

[jacinto]

I will stop posting here,

this is my farewell to this thread.

j