TA does/doesn't work thread with a difference.

scose-no-doubt said:
You ever tried dailies outside of forex?
Click to expand...

Yep, can't get *it* (my stuff) to work on indices, does on oil, but oil..well..it's oil isn't it? If I traded indices I wouldn't hold overnight anyhow. Shoot me down like Gadaffi's mercenaries in a fighter jet but imho FX is a better, 'purer', mathematically sounder sector for using mechanical TA. Now I'm not getting into the FA v TA Godwin's law T2W grounghog debate, as the game is all about prollys, mind and MM anyhow but I've always maintained that folk understimate an inherent seldom talked about benefit an indicator based strat can deliver in terms of sound MM, a reason to get in and get out.
 
I would say anyone who starts out trading should not touch TA until they are already profitable. They need to understand what actually drives the markets (order flow - there is nothing else. but they need to understand how that flow appears too)

Once they know what they're doing then there's no harm, and some use, in it as can help one understand the flow better...

Sadly some person who sticks £200 in a spread betting account to punt cable is unlikely to acheive any understanding, so they might as well use TA... I can't see what ELSE they could use!
 
Insofar as my avatar is concerned, the question is, esoterically of course, how did I get on my own back to hold the carrot. Also, how can a donkey conceive this use for and/or operate such apparatus. Oroborosy!
 
arabianights said:
Sadly some person who sticks £200 in a spread betting account to punt cable is unlikely to acheive any understanding, so they might as well use TA... I can't see what ELSE they could use!
Click to expand...

Dartboard with the ex's face overlaid.
Hit her in the mouth - go long
Hit her in the forehead - go short
Hit her in the eyes and you're just trading blind - take your pick.

Peter
 
shadowninja said:
This guy is good, too:

But I phased out just after "Hello,". :D
Click to expand...


I've been trying hard not to be cynical, but sometimes it's difficult.

If an analyst works for a spread betting company, would you expect him to give a good advice?

Do they want their customers to be proffitable?
 
bedsit said:
I've been trying hard not to be cynical, but sometimes it's difficult.

If an analyst works for a spread betting company, would you expect him to give a good advice?

Do they want their customers to be proffitable?
Click to expand...

That deserves a thread all of its own... although, you could post it on the CMC thread. :D
 
TA does/doesn't work...hmm which TA?
Candlesticks? Indicators? Timeframes? Channels? Patterns? Fibs? S/R. All of these? None of these? TA is what you make of it isn't it? None of it is perfect and there are losing trades aplenty so of course everyone could post charts of failed trades till the cows come home. It's all horses for courses. For egg-sample think fibs are a load of codswallop, but some swear by them (It has pulled back to the 50% fib (which isn't a fib anyway btw), which also lines up with a round number and a s/r area so I will trade'....Would you trade the fib on it's own? 'No'. OK would you trade the round number and the S/R area without the fib? 'Yes'. OK, why do you need the fib then??)

TA not being reliable on small timeframes and the moves are too small. Hmm. But where are you in the bigger picture? If all you are looking at is a 5, 15, 30 minute chart how much scope has the move got??

If you want to be holding for longer and grabbing more pips/ticks then you need to be positioning yourself at higher timeframe extremities - weekly, monthly, yearly. If you're not positioning yourself in those areas you need to be ready to get in and out much quicker, you have less room to go.

I only mention those charts as they are what is available to us. I personally don't put much significance on single bars in any timeframe, but larger charts show areas of supply demand imbalance fairlry clearly - area of nothing happening followed by momentum breakout:if you can combine bars in your minds eye and then shift that multiple bar around and get a clearer picture - is momentum contracting here, is this a possible reversal etc. So what I study is momentum (or more correctly velocity), whether that be some kind of breakout or other 'pattern'. What tends to happen a lot following momentum is that the move will be faded, and where I think the faders will cover is where I get in.

As an example there was a move on EU this week I managed to get in on. Market position was based on the weekly chart (which in this instance WAS a single bar but of course the area shows on the daily chart too). Price came down to the breakout point. Entry was on the 1hr chart PA initially (reversal and some momentum up) then down to 15 minute for the pullback, pretty much at the weekly low, 20 pip stop 1%. Exit was at the daily high. There was a re-entry at the daily low the following day (which I missed as price didn't come to my level) and...if you were in it, exit was again not far off the daily high (about 30 pips below). That was the only trade for me this week.

Are there loosers (sp :LOL:) absolutely, sometimes LOTS of them but the R:R can be ridiculous. Looking at individual trades someone could say 'look at the number of losing trades, if this is TA, TA does not work'. I say the (sometimes) 18:1+ r:r more than makes up for that.

So I like on balance lots of small downs followed by big ups. Others prefer lots of small ups and by their reckoning MY TA will be crap as it won't provide the number of wins they require.

It's all subjective isn't it and has to fit in with the requirements of whatever framework the trader is operating in?

Ain't no grail.
 
Is it not possible that TA is controlled so you can SEE it?
By ALTERING your perception?
Into a trap? for reasons. What you see is not what it is.

Is it not for the traders best interest to be aware and to UNDERSTAND what is the true INTENT behind it?
 
tarp-30198.jpg
 
Ok then if there are many losers then the basis of my argument is that TA doesn't actually work in itself, it just helps to provide a mental crutch and a structured approach to a random outcome which can result in positive expectancy. So then it can work. But not because of the TA but because of the person and their approach to money management.
 
scose-no-doubt said:
Ok then if there are many losers then the basis of my argument is that TA doesn't actually work in itself, it just helps to provide a mental crutch and a structured approach to a random outcome which can result in positive expectancy. So then it can work. But not because of the TA but because of the person and their approach to money management.
Click to expand...

Well I'd reiterate that it's horses for courses. A lot of my losers come from the fact that I cut trades in the red ruthlessly. Some of them would have turned around and become winning trades. I don't care. If it goes against I either get out straight away or try to get b/e. It's based on PA so is that part of TA or money management? I'd say both. When its my money at risk I will cut cut cut. When it's the market's money at risk I will add when I get chance. Where do I add? Well bugg3r me it's based on TA/PA.
 
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