mickandpete said:Cap Spreads now added sugar as per may london
Updated Sugar chart.
mickandpete said:Cap Spreads now added sugar as per may london
bgold said:Sugar has rallied nicely in past few days but contango between near and far months is not increasing? I would have expected May or July to trade up more aggresively than say No06 or Mar07?
Can anybody shed light on this? Is this rally suspect? thanks
jimbo57 said:Just a thought- I am not a sugar trader, but an oil trader.
Perhaps one of the fundamental reasons for the rally in sugar is to be found in the oil market. The US is this year phasing out completely the use of MTBE in gasoline - most refiners will be replacing this with ethanol which is a product distilled from agri commdodities such as sugar and corn. Thus demand for these commodities will rise going forward, and the full effect of this will be felt next year and beyond. Perhaps this explains why the rally you've seen hasnt squeezed the spreads in - it is a "back-end" led rally.
Hmmm, have been holding short London Sugar since the 10th. Why are you buying? Am long oil so I have the 'energy' angle covered in the real energy market.
Hookshot,
Thanks for the comment about the oil thread. To be honest the only reason I stopped doing it was I didn't think there was that much interest in reading about the positions I had taken in oil ! Also no one else seemed to post their positions on the thread so I knocked it on the head !
I might look at starting up again now I know at least one person was interested !!
What are you trading ??
The problem I am having with a lot of these soft commodities comes from getting decent charts with some back data from my spread betting company. I use capitals and you only get to trade the August contract for 4 weeks of July and then you move on to the September contract. By the time I have seen the key points on the chart I only have 2/3 weeks left to trade, before I need to start the process again.
I don't really want to pay for a feed on these commodities just yet because I really am looking at this as a speculative play (pardon the pun). To me the moves are a lot more predictable than oil and they can trend upwards for a good few days without any erroneous price spikes that are going to murder your stop. However, I am looking at only a few weeks of price data on which I am basing that assumption.
I don't mean to sound arrogant or upset any soft commodities traders by saying what I said above, I am just saying it how I see it. Volatility is much lower and the moves are not as profitable in terms of cash. However, the risk/reward ratio is quite extreme ! i.e small downside risk, with a lot of upside gain. I am really looking to open a couple of positions on varying soft commodities and just run them for a few days hopefully taking some extra cash at the end of it.
I'm too short-term a trader in sugar (and coffee) to pay too much attention to long-term cycles. I usually only hold my positions for a few days/weeks.
I have to say I was expecting a bigger move south after the sharp fall near my entry but it just bounced back up and hasnt really done much..........