minx
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Nah, came back to the entry point and is now a little lower... I now have no strong opinion so I'm staying with the short until I can decide otherwise.
Nah, came back to the entry point and is now a little lower... I now have no strong opinion so I'm staying with the short until I can decide otherwise.
TWI
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Sugar, to my mind is in a value area and I am holder of a long and will increase this as a scale down buyer.
There is a large surplus this year 10.5mln mt but this is priced in already and the demand has been on the increase. Thing about sugar is that on an inflation adjusted basis back to 1970 it is simply the cheapest commodity out there. It is also the new fuel. Sugar has a huge future and I would not be shorting this at all.
In the long run holding a long will pay dividends it is , as ever, just a case of timing or sizing accordingly to survive the draws.
There is a large surplus this year 10.5mln mt but this is priced in already and the demand has been on the increase. Thing about sugar is that on an inflation adjusted basis back to 1970 it is simply the cheapest commodity out there. It is also the new fuel. Sugar has a huge future and I would not be shorting this at all.
In the long run holding a long will pay dividends it is , as ever, just a case of timing or sizing accordingly to survive the draws.
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Jack o'Clubs
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Anyone else have a brown trouser moment when looking at their sugar positions this morning? Seems there was a problem at Nymex and stops were triggered all the way down to 890...! After crapping myself for a while, I got a 'Trade Bust' notification from IB saying there'd been an error at the exchange and all trades were cancelled. Phew.... To be honest this move seems to have petered out so for the time-being, back on the sidelines.
counter_violent
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There was a sugar shortage mid to late 70's....I remember every time I was sent to the shop..mater would say...oh and while your there get a bag of sugar
...we had about 30 bags in stock at One point...I ask ya !!...she was a teenager in the war years and remembers rationing very well ..
minx
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As it always is with markets, for every bull there is a bear. I really want a convincing break below 303.00 and perhaps we'll head back to the 290-295 area.
Whilst I do agree with your energy/sugar opinion I still think there is money on both sides of the move, just depends on your time horizon I guess.
TWI
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I do not like the idea of shorting raws or white. Lot of people looking at supply demands out there finding it hard to get bullish but seen some Indian raws trade a great premium to Nybot into mid east. It is cheap. Tightening in the Oct/Mar spread is also not a bearish sign, that has really run up a lot the past week..
I am not gonna try to predict the short term outlook here although I have long position in raws. I just see it as the best value product out there right now.
Good luck out there...
I am not gonna try to predict the short term outlook here although I have long position in raws. I just see it as the best value product out there right now.
Good luck out there...
newtrader22
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No post for a while in this thread.Looks like Sugar will start the upward move soon.
I trade sugar on NCDEX india. Will initiate long positions next week as my work shows
the short term correction is likely to end next week.
I trade sugar on NCDEX india. Will initiate long positions next week as my work shows
the short term correction is likely to end next week.
minx
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Based on what?
hornblower
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I have never traded sugar
can you tell me the price swing for sugar
sugar harvest is just coming in, why should the price rise ?
can you tell me the price swing for sugar
sugar harvest is just coming in, why should the price rise ?
Stopped out on 6th August at avge 1009 for +4. Trade obviously didn't work out. (sorry for late posting, was away on vacation)
trader_dante
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I'm looking for longs in Liffe sugar at the 268 level.
I feel it has made a temporary bottom.
I feel it has made a temporary bottom.
Fwiw: Long SBH8/V8 at -22
Buy March Sugar and sell the October contract of next year. The risk point will be to March 45 under the October. The minimum objective will be March 40 points premium to the October (a profit objective about double the risk) however for now leave the upside profit potential open. In a major bull move this spread has the potential to move as high as March 100 premium, and even greater at times. Sugar appears to have formed a technical bottom, despite the bearish supply fundamentals. Brazil has a large crop coming however their increased sugar demand for ethanol production should overtake this increased supply
Buy March Sugar and sell the October contract of next year. The risk point will be to March 45 under the October. The minimum objective will be March 40 points premium to the October (a profit objective about double the risk) however for now leave the upside profit potential open. In a major bull move this spread has the potential to move as high as March 100 premium, and even greater at times. Sugar appears to have formed a technical bottom, despite the bearish supply fundamentals. Brazil has a large crop coming however their increased sugar demand for ethanol production should overtake this increased supply
TWI
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bgold, total agree with your analysis. Was playing V7/H8 from short side for a while but other than one spike to flat it just never got anywere despite Cargill claiming it would get hammerd to 100+ contango. I am firmly in the buy any dips camp in raws right now. The surplus has been in the market for a long time and although going forward India and Bzl are suppply factors I think it will be possible to continue to buy dips and make a good turn as investment flows come in and slowly the sugar ethanol story gets a grip as people realise corn ethanol is not gonna cut it and we see US lift the ethanol import tariffs. The forward structure is great as there is not much carry and I always favour holding these sorts of commodities that have a good story and have a flat structure.
Bubblin' nicely....
March Cct made inside month in Sep and Oct (though still young) is another inside month ..so far...
So it's getting to decision time ... ?
I read Soros is getting into Ethanol in Brz and reckons their production could rise 10x if regs are relaxed in and out of Brz. I think we can guess what happens next
EDIT: After the zoom in coffee, sugar is probably the only value opportunity left in commods ....
March Cct made inside month in Sep and Oct (though still young) is another inside month ..so far...
So it's getting to decision time ... ?
I read Soros is getting into Ethanol in Brz and reckons their production could rise 10x if regs are relaxed in and out of Brz. I think we can guess what happens next
EDIT: After the zoom in coffee, sugar is probably the only value opportunity left in commods ....
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