GLENN,
Any thing can happen in the future, agreed. In reference to the business, or industry.
Market Price direction however is completely different, and in many instances irrelevant, hence "riskless"
That is entirely possible, and on occasion perfectly accurate. Currently this is not the case.
My point is, in 18mths I have not lost any money. That should interest you, that it doesn't gives me pause for thought. You can see posted trades, ( GM, TELOZ, CTEL, DIA, ) and calculate the type of profit I make, circa 30% on directional equity trades.
Absolutely true, and I would concur, it is easier for me in a neutral or bear market however.
You are referring I believe to the CPE ( Intuition thread )
1 method, was a purely "mechanical method" that was developed in Australia, and was extensively tested, and traded "live" for the last 3yrs, returning a large profit, and still currently trading at a profit.
Method 2 was simply a Support / Resistance analysis, simple basic, no good? Maybe.
Method 3 was an "oscillator", again basic stuff agreed, but utilised by many.
Method 4 was a "EMA" as a trendline support, again used successfully by many.
One P&V analyst joined the fray, and struggled also.
5 methods, all TA, all failed miserably. All ran a stoploss, all caused losses, currently price ticking up slowly $14.50 odd.
You yourself declined to participate, citing secret methodology, or some such. Therefore we shall never see a true expert at work, utilising the cutting edge of TA.
However, as you are insinuating that a "competent" Technical Analyst would have surpassed my ineffectual blunderings, tell me;
Would he have had a stoploss?
If yes, ........Why?
If so competent why the requirement for a stoploss?
On my 4 live trades posted on this site.................none run a stoploss.
Why?
Because risk management does not = STOPLOSS
TA has no edge.
It is chasing momentum plain and simple, that momentum can change in a heartbeat, that is why you require a stoploss.
If there was a true quantifiable, statistical edge, stoplosses would probably be redundant.
I do the work that is necessary to succeed.
Others could emulate if they chose to, data is freely available.
I do have a profession, in addition to the running of my ( smallish fund ) ever heard of TIME MANAGEMENT.
<snip>