Some of my trades, forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

Re: This weeks' Gold

Hari,
I got your e-mail, so I'm responding to it and this in an open forum. Maybe someone else might be benefitted.
I had to search a little to find the 1113 level you were talking about and then found it on the weekly, which is the top of the cloud. It's feesible price action could get there.
I would first watch for the current level which is the 50 percentile and the WS2. I favor it to be broken with the current momentum, and then look for the next leg DOWN to the 62% mark at 1158, which will be confluenced with the weekly kijun at 1155. The market will be worth taking another serios look for the long at that point.
Let me respectfully say that what you referred to as the weekly tenken is the kijun.
BTW, when the 3's are broken it just shows a strong trend within that TF. It could mean another strong move in the next TF, but does not guarantee it. Conferring with other TF's also helps.
Still, I love the way you got a read on my methodology.

hi Paul
finally it broke through the daily cloud and targeting 1155 which is weekly tenken (but weekly pivots ws3 is above 1155 ) so this week if ws3 is broken , next week also strong down trend is expected as per S& R so we can aim for 1113 which is cloud top am i right ?
regards

 

[4xpipcounter]

Updates, this and that

My week is not off to a stellar start. I took the USD/CAD out, not pleased with the current momentum, at +5 pips.
The EUR/CAD decided that was not the place for it's correction, so I'm now looking for the weekly tenken to contain the current price action, which is 1.3739.
I got the pullback on the EUR/GBP I was looking for as the dip ended at .8428, but I was away from the computer. As far as it is concerned, .8505 has been broken, convincingly, so I'm waiting for a pullback to that circa area to ride the next leg to .8590.
The EUR/CHF is looking good, along with the GBP/USD.
Cable is finding support at the daily, and I took it out at 1.5419 for +83 pips, spread included, while I was writing this. I'll wait to see price action for my next move on it.

I didn't mean to stick the thumbs up in my ttile. It happened by accident, and I don't know how to edit it

 

[4xpipcounter]

EUR/CAD trade update

I hedged the EUR/CAD. One way or another it will hit the weekly kijun 1.3739 and then the WR1 at 1.3829 before the week is out. The correction is also forthcoming, so I might as well have my cake and eat it too.
If the pair hits 1.3962 before the correction starts, then it will be huge.

 

[guptabhk]

Re: This weeks' Gold

oops !! sorry paul,
typo error , you are correct 1155 is weekly kijun sen and top of the cloud is 1113 which i am referring to is senkou span A
understood that even though a strong trend may not confluence with higher time frame
point noted for
regards

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: This weeks' Gold

Hari, your view is still legitimate. It could still make it to your said support, especially after a clean break out of the daily cloud.

oops !! sorry paul,
typo error , you are correct 1155 is weekly kijun sen and top of the cloud is 1113 which i am referring to is senkou span A
understood that even though a strong trend may not confluence with higher time frame
point noted for
regards

 

[4xpipcounter]

EUR/GBP trade

The long has kicked in at .8507, which includes the spread. Target is a viable .8590, but I won't be a bot shy to take it out before that.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Gbp/usd

Cable continues to tumble, as it has its eyes set on next major support at the daily kijun at 1.5079.

One of the thing I did say about cable was that we would need a sharp reversal on Friday in order to nullify the bullish bias. My provider wiped my yearlies out some how, so I don't have them plotted on here at the moment, but 1.5447 is the 38% mark of YS1--YP. With the exception of the spike we did get a bounce off that, and all the way to today's low at 1.5278 BTW, that is the exct mark of the 23% mark of YS1--YP. How remarkable, huh?). Notice the candle where it finished the week--right under the kijun, as well as on the edge of the cloud. All this adds up to some strong possibilities that cable is back in the DOWN. The really strong support area is going to be 1.4851. That can be seen on this chart, the weekly. It is the tenken. It is also the top of the daily cloud. There are also other supports along the way, so it could be real tired by the time it meets up with 1.4851, but we'll see.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Eur/usd

The 4-hour cloud, tenken, and kijun are all rising fast, as a bridge was made today from the tenken to the kijun. Next support will now be the daily tenken at 1.2775. It may be that point I'll look to go long.

This pair should be in for a correction of the giant move upwards it had. The 4-hour kijun is 1.2764, but still needs to get around the tenken at 1.2894.The daily tenken at 1.2742 should be containment.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Usd/cad

The reason for the sloppy price action so far this week is that the pair made a weak attempt to head towards 1.0630, faltered, then bounced off the WS1 at 1.0490. If we get a move back to around 1.0521, this should make for a good long opportunity. The preferable move now is to the MR1 at 1.0779. That will make an excellent short

This pair is headed further UP. I'm going to ride a roundtrip on this one. Once 1.0630 has been hit, I'm going short. At this point, I don't know how far it will go, but it does appear it will have some depth to it. That move only looks like an overall correction1.0885 will also be strong resistance.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Just wanted to check in to say I haven't gone anywhere. There just isn't anything too exciting to report.
Aussie just broke, convincingly, through a key level at .8860, so that puts .8972 on the radar.
Ntoice how cable keeps struggling at the 1.5278 level. It is documented on this thread about how I said we need a strong bounce off of 1.5445, and back under 1.5278 in order to revice the idea that this move UP is only a correction of the downtrendWe got that, but now it wants to flirt with that level. A weekly close above 1.5350 would flip the MT to a bullish bias, and we could be at 1.6 by this time next month.
Watch for the DJIA. It is building up to another cresendo move. All we need is a weekly close under 10,500, adn then a monthly close under 9,500, then look out! It's a matter of time when we will get another strong break, south.
Here's an interesting fact concerning the USD/JPY. 13 of the last 14 years in August, the USD/JPY has had a bearish candle. Here's another fact. My S&R's can be backtested anytime and any TF. If the initial move was north in 9 of those 14 months. If the 1st WR1 was entered, then all 9 of those trades would be winners. Am I advocation that? No! Just pointing out a coincidence
My BIG week of the year is coming up. I'll be leaving on vacation (not just a trip) Aug. 6th. Computers, even cell phones get left home. My song to my wife, "Me and you and a dog named Tucker, Traveling and al iving off the land, Me and you and a dog named Tucker, how I love being a free man." Actually, the song had a dog named Boo.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Forex True Confessions.

Well, for what's it worth, I had my fityporst losing week last week in 3 years. It wasn't huge, but it was a total of -50 pips. I also had my first triple-digit losing trade since last year. I had -138 on the GBP/USD.
Oh well, I guess it happens to all of us.
BTW, my data only comes from closed trades.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Eur/usd

This pair ran into some heavy R 1.3035, which is the weekly kijun. Additional R will be seen at 1.3061, which is 50% of YS2--YS1, and then it should be on to 1.3165, which is where we should get at least a full-blown correction

 

[4xpipcounter]

Gbp/usd

If the circa area of 1.5445 does not hold, then it will be on to 1.5584, which is the 50% mark of YS1--YP. Another level that is a possiblity before anything of any major value happens in the form of a reversal, is 1.5723. That should be containment, if not one of the aforementioned levels. If we amke it to 1.5584, then look for an extremely sharp reversal, or put 1.5723 on your radar.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Eur/usd

I wanted to add something to this forecast, and it's something I should have done to add more clarity to the total picture. The pair is, at this point, is highly OB, and we have a bearish divergence on the daily chart. Therefore, look for a pullback before this pair continues its journey UP. This initial correction will take us to 1.2648, and maybe 1.2513, before it is back in the uptrend.

This pair ran into some heavy R 1.3035, which is the weekly kijun. Additional R will be seen at 1.3061, which is 50% of YS2--YS1, and then it should be on to 1.3165, which is where we should get at least a full-blown correction

 

[4xpipcounter]

Eur/aud

This pair is headed to 1.4305, which is not that far away. If it hits 1.4143, the reversal back in the UP is going to have some teeth.

 

[4xpipcounter]

This pair was one of my lsing trades last week. I made a huge mistake in thinking the pair was going to bounce off my YS1 at .8505, and then head to .8591. The part of it I did not consider was the OB condition of the pair. .8284 is on the radar and the drop could continue to .8214.

 

[4xpipcounter]

EUR/USD trade

As per my forecast, I entered a short on the EUR/USD at 1.2991, The signal was at the WR1 at 1.2977, so I'll just take a few extra pips on the trade. Initial support will be seen at the daily tenken at 1.2879. I won't be surprised to see this pair hit the top of the cloud at 1.2645.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Eur/gbp

I forgot to, initially, label this forecast, but I got it right this time.
The EUR/GBP is about to fulfill this forecast. .8423 would be the idea reversal point, as it is the WR1, the bottom of the 4-hour cloud and the circa area of the Fibo point for the yearlies. This will mark the extreme OB area for the EUR/GBP, so it all adds up to a strong move south. This trip south the .8325 area should be broken on its way to .8284.

This pair was one of my lsing trades last week. I made a huge mistake in thinking the pair was going to bounce off my YS1 at .8505, and then head to .8591. The part of it I did not consider was the OB condition of the pair. .8284 is on the radar and the drop could continue to .8214.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Eur/aud

I took this trade out at my MS1 at 1.4330, whixh was good for +60 pips. The pair should move lowerm but not enough to sweaet over the final pips.

This pair is headed to 1.4305, which is not that far away. If it hits 1.4143, the reversal back in the UP is going to have some teeth.

 

[4xpipcounter]

GBP/CHF trade

The pair is meeting up with some very strong resistance, and it is vey OB, so I entered a short at 1.6521