Some of my trades, forecasts

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Re: EUR/JPY trade update

The pair made the epected move DOWN. Look for the daily tenken to be support at 109.09. I won't be surprised to see a move to the bottom of the daily cloud at 113.69.


Here's an excellent shorting opportunity to start the week. That is provided we don't get some obscene spike to start the week.
It is one of those ideal 100-pip setups on the 4-hour chart. The pullback could be brief, so I'd be ready to pull the trigger on the exit quick. Another words, the tenken is 109.39, and the kijun is 109.01. Notice how the tenken has crossed the kijun. It is travelling a distinctive, divergent path. What makes this a nice short trade to start the week is that itis at the bottom of the 4-hour cloud, The cloud is bearish into the future. The MR1 got hit for the first time this month at 110.01. The stochastics are crossed in OB territory.
This will be another good opportunity to see the ichimoku and my S&R's in action at the same time. Also, the cloud gives a really good time element. This trade should take 24 hours or less to complete.
 
Hi 4Xpipcounter
Just been reading through this thread adn some of the posts on your blog - including stuff about ichimoku - it is fascinating to see how you apply this with your own proprietary SR levels - and your forecast on 17 pairs - well I'm impressed
You said somewhere that you worked on trading for 4 years before you figured it out - what drew you to ichimoku
your SR levels - I know that these are proprietary - but again some background on how you arrived at these would be helpful ( I know you won't give out the formula...) - but was this empirical research - looking at levels at which the market turned - or some mathematical calculation based on HLC
anyway looking forward to your posts
thanks
 
Re: Gbp/jpy update

This pair, even over the MT, could take divergent paths from its cousin, the EUR/JPY. It is encamped under the daily cloud that has a simialr look to the aussie, which is why the aussie has also found renewed vigor.


Here's the same type of setup as the EUR/JPY.
 
Re: GBP/NZD trade update

This pair obeyed and was subject to the stochastic divergency. Wouldn't you know it, the 4-hour kijun also was support. Eentually, it is favored for a sharper correction to ensue for this pair. 2.1595 is on the radar.


Another one of those stochastic sharp divergent path deals. Keep you eye on this one after it hits the yellow line, which is my MR1 at 1.2155.
 
Re: NZD/CHF trade update

This pair did make the move further down, and .7212 is still on the ST radar.


A typical S&R setup with the pair already in a downtrend.
The pair goes back to challenge the MP, and it fails with a semi-doji formation. I blew it in not showing the MS1 at .7212, which is a viable short-term target.
 
Re: GBP/USD trade

A 109 hi-lo move is quite powerful for a low volume day, but it did move in favor of the forecast. This move is loking impulsive, although too early to tell. If that is the case, then the correction is finished. This move happened under the daily cloud which was creating a confluence with my 23% level of YS1--YP. 1.5050 will be support .The reaction at that point will say a lot for where cable is headed. If the cahllenge of the peak fails, then the correction is offically over with.


I don't like the looks of this one, only because I want it to get the journey over with towards 1.5278, but here goes. Stochastics crossed and is OB. The pair has gone sideways at the clusterR area, one of which is my MR1 at 1.5156. This means the kijun should be hit at 1.5050. The only thing that would make me doubt this is that the candles are starting look comfortable above that cluster area. I would wait for a closing candle below it, then jump in. We're still headed towards 1.5278, so keep that in mind.
 
Update on the updates

Once again, folks, in an effort to be as transparent as possible. The dailies went 6 for 6. I encourage you to follow my more far-reaching forecasts.
These are to be viewed as possbile identifiable trades, but they are really forecasts as to what will happen. It pays to know what will happen so you will have something to trade by.
In the words of KC & the Sunshine Band, "That's the way, Uh huh uh huh, I like it uh huh uh huh."
 
What drew me to ichimoku was the spirit of always keeping an open-mind. I knew someone that popped in my trading room 3 years ago who was hooked on the ichimoku. Even though I did not like it, I encouraged him to share his ideas with my chat room. We ended up developing a friendship, and I became his student. I studied and dissected the ichimoku in every way I could, and found it was not only a highly transparent indicator, but could also be used as a standalone ("ichi"--one).
My brain went to work as I was discussing mathematical relationships with someone who was actually a failed trader. I wanted to keep an open mind to what he had to say about certain relationships. I went to work and studies the synergistic ebb and flow of all pairs, and came up with an idea. That was transformed into its mathematical equivalent. I still have many thanks to the one that developed the software for me to apply it on my charts with no effort.
The formulation of the S&R's and the ichimoku I found also formed a perfect confluence, and work in perfect harmony with each other.
The stochastics I only use as a momentum indicator. This helps in making a trading decision once price gets close to my S&R's.
The 200 MA I think as the zenith of the ultimacy of the pair. Either it gets ripped out, or the bounce ensues. It was the monthly MA alone that helped me to determine the GBP/CHF was in for a major plunge after it peaked at 2.4964. I have a few readers of this thread that can verify that because they were in that old chat room with me.
My S&R's had eveything to do empiricalism with the mathematics applied to it.
I give credit to my boss, Tucker, on that one. It is our pride and joy.
In reference to the HLC question, the P (pivot) of the DWMYDe, is always the open price.
This is why I say so much, I have immoveable confidence in my methodology, but I am always open to new ideas or new spins. This is why I view myself as still the little student that is still hungry for my knowledge--the shrub next to the redwood trres .But, looks can be deceiving. That is one powerful shrub.
Glad you're looking forward to the posts. I hope this thread continues to be informative.

Hi 4Xpipcounter
Just been reading through this thread adn some of the posts on your blog - including stuff about ichimoku - it is fascinating to see how you apply this with your own proprietary SR levels - and your forecast on 17 pairs - well I'm impressed
You said somewhere that you worked on trading for 4 years before you figured it out - what drew you to ichimoku
your SR levels - I know that these are proprietary - but again some background on how you arrived at these would be helpful ( I know you won't give out the formula...) - but was this empirical research - looking at levels at which the market turned - or some mathematical calculation based on HLC
anyway looking forward to your posts
thanks
 
Eur/usd & eur/gbp

EUR/USD is looking sketchy right now, which is why I remain flat concerning this pair.
Unless we got a headfake into the bearish daily cloud, then we are headed to 1.2807. A correction is still favored. 1.2381 needs to hold, or it will take on a different look. That is what I favor at the moment. Correction to somewhere around 1.2381, and then a move to 1.2807.
If this does happen, then that EUR/GBP gets smoked----and that does seem like the likelihood, but not confirmed. .8505 for the EUR/GBP seems more and more on the radar.
 
GBP/CHF should have its bearing back together for a run at the MS1 at 1.5830
 
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The boss's birthday!!

I got to put this in.
It's the boss's birthday today!! Is he ever getting the pampered treatment today!!
Oh yeah, that's Tucker and he turned 5 today.
 
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Gbp/usd

Watch for reaction at 1.5156. In addition to it being my MR1, that is a cluster event with the tenken showing a strong divergent path on the 4-hour chart after it entered the cloud. I'm not saying 1.5156 is containment, but it could be.
The fact I want to point out is that the pair is headed to 1.3857. I'm looking for the turning point. Is this a vaguery? Yes it is, but this time it can't be helped.
Tuesday will, predictably be a volatile day. I just want to load up on some pips, so I can be a part of the action
 
Re: Gbp/usd

Watch for reaction at 1.5156. In addition to it being my MR1, that is a cluster event with the tenken showing a strong divergent path on the 4-hour chart after it entered the cloud. I'm not saying 1.5156 is containment, but it could be.
The fact I want to point out is that the pair is headed to 1.3857. I'm looking for the turning point. Is this a vaguery? Yes it is, but this time it can't be helped.
Tuesday will, predictably be a volatile day. I just want to load up on some pips, so I can be a part of the action

Hi everyone,
Paul Nice to read all the comment about currencies. As my broker has not much currencies to trade so I try to stick to 2-3 currencies and watch the PA and how it react on certain set-ups of ichi lines. And I agree to your previous comment on my message and i have this question going round in my head everyday. What is the rule Paul? ;)

1.3857 ? you see GU there? looks like 1200+ pips to go? It does not look like ichimoku forecast
 
Re: Gbp/usd

Valadimir, correct me if I misunderstood your question.
"What is the rule Paul?" Does that refer to your comments under that. If it does, then here goes.
This is the synergy I talked baout between the ichimoku and my S&R's. The 1.5287 (23% of YS1--YP) and the bottom of the weekly cloud have clustered together. This is still being viewed as a correction to the downtrend. The next leg down on the trend would be to my YS2 at 1.3857. Check my yearly S&R's and you will see there is an 1,148-pip difference between reference points which are the YS2--YS1--YP--YR1--YR2. The first leg of this year's DOWN was completed from the YP at 1.6153 to the YS1 at 1.5005. Now, it is time for the next leg towards 1.3857. There will be a point momentum gives out completely on the higher TF's like the weekly and monthly. That is when we look for sharp reversals and a new LT trend. The EUR/AUD and others are good examples of that, which is why I have them on my LT--MT trading platforms.


Hi everyone,
Paul Nice to read all the comment about currencies. As my broker has not much currencies to trade so I try to stick to 2-3 currencies and watch the PA and how it react on certain set-ups of ichi lines. And I agree to your previous comment on my message and i have this question going round in my head everyday. What is the rule Paul? ;)

1.3857 ? you see GU there? looks like 1200+ pips to go? It does not look like ichimoku forecast
 
Ok I got it.
It will take time to reach that lvl. It is just not easy to think so long perspective.
Cheers
 
This is because a lot traders are used to looking at 1-hour charts <>. They get into a trade, and then get out a few pips later. There is nothing wrong with that. But, the difference is that if I see a setup on the daily, weekly, or monthly, then I'll trade it accordingly. The best analogy I can give in the difference of looking at a weekly chart or an hour chart is the difference in counting by 2's or by 25's. When you count by 2's, 20 increments later is 40, but when you count by 25's, 20 increments later is 500. Just make sure you have the setup on the particular chart you are considering.
A more graphic example is what is going on with the AUD/USD. It is getting reaady to reenter the 5-min cloud at .8388, and will hit the opposite side at .8379. On the weekly, it has entered at .8770, and will hit the bottom at .7827. They are both relative to the cloud, except larger TF's. Price enters the top, and will hit the bottom.
 
Well I suppose that it will be the bast way to trade 0.01 lot having 1500 on my deposit
 
You won't have to worry about bankrupting an account with .01 units per $1,500. I trade 1 unit per $10,000, which is the equivalent of .15 units per $1,500.
On those MT-LT trades, I have less than you have on each trade. But then, I did say I just want to run some pips up.



Well I suppose that it will be the bast way to trade 0.01 lot having 1500 on my deposit
 
Another thing I should have mentioned in the other post is that when your type of margining, it would be perfect to take advantage of some of the longer term trades. It would not be adviseable to jump in on a lot of them as a correction is forthcoming on many of the trends, but after the respective pullbacks are finished, then you can consider a position or 2 or 3.
Please, just take that as my thoughts and my opinions. There's a big difference between a forecast on the currencies, and spreading my opinion around. I guess you can just look at it as food for thought.



Well I suppose that it will be the bast way to trade 0.01 lot having 1500 on my deposit
 
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