Some of my trades, forecasts

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Re: Usd/chf

I'm not giving away names, but a newbie IM's me, saying he took this trade, and took it out at circa 1.0300.
The irony? I haven't closed a trade yet today. That's it! I'm posting no more forecasts! Actually, I am really happy for him. This thread and the associations I've had since being on this site has been highly mutally beneficial.

I mentioned in my WR to look for 1.0440 to be containment. 1.0424, which is the WR1 could be it. Regardless, this circa area looks good for a short.
I took my long position out at 1.0414, which is virtual breakeven. The position had been opened for a little over 3 weeks.
 
Thanks MT. I forgot if I asked before, but do your standard deviations come form the Bollinger Bands or a form thereof, or maybe it is the TRM? Just wondering.


good heads up 4x. the 2 standard deviation was also at 1.0650, nice confluence of R.
 
Re: Usd/chf

I'm not giving away names, but a newbie IM's me, saying he took this trade, and took it out at circa 1.0300.
The irony? I haven't closed a trade yet today. That's it! I'm posting no more forecasts! Actually, I am really happy for him. This thread and the associations I've had since being on this site has been highly mutally beneficial.


:D
He may have been a newbie, but he was a smart newbie!
 
Thanks MT. I forgot if I asked before, but do your standard deviations come form the Bollinger Bands or a form thereof, or maybe it is the TRM? Just wondering.

they are a standard deviation channel (i use 2 and 3 STD DEV) which i use on 4 hr and daily charts, but drill down to 5 minute for entry. i use them in conjunction with other things, one cant trade them mechanically but can be either entry or exit points. forex markets work rather well i find more than others e.g the Bund has just climbed regardless over the last few weeks - hence need for discretion/money management
 

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I just closed one of the really old trades I posted about 3-4 weeks ago. It is the AUD/USD at .8844 for +217 pips. I got one of the oldies left.
 
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Re: Usd/chf

It was a nice story, and involved. For a fear of embarassing him, I don't want to tell the whole story, but saying I was happy for him goes deeper than surface value.


:D
He may have been a newbie, but he was a smart newbie!
 
I'm a big proponent of the TRM bands. They work somewhat similar, but are much more concise. The other big difference is they are a paid software program.
I also believe the biggest difference, and you also inferred it, and that is the standard deviation can't be used as a standalone. The TRM bands have 4 different set of charts and be used as a standalone.
I better be quiet. I'm going to sound like a salesman.


they are a standard deviation channel (i use 2 and 3 STD DEV) which i use on 4 hr and daily charts, but drill down to 5 minute for entry. i use them in conjunction with other things, one cant trade them mechanically but can be either entry or exit points. forex markets work rather well i find more than others e.g the Bund has just climbed regardless over the last few weeks - hence need for discretion/money management
 
I'm a big proponent of the TRM bands. They work somewhat similar, but are much more concise. The other big difference is they are a paid software program.
I also believe the biggest difference, and you also inferred it, and that is the standard deviation can't be used as a standalone. The TRM bands have 4 different set of charts and be used as a standalone.
I better be quiet. I'm going to sound like a salesman.

Agree, i think they are similar to hurst channels? all these things just try and provide us with trades that have high probability of success. its good we can share these various tools with each other
 
I'm a big proponent of the TRM bands. They work somewhat similar, but are much more concise. The other big difference is they are a paid software program.
I also believe the biggest difference, and you also inferred it, and that is the standard deviation can't be used as a standalone. The TRM bands have 4 different set of charts and be used as a standalone.
I better be quiet. I'm going to sound like a salesman.

Forgot to add, did you see EURCHF made all time lows today (flight from risk etc etc), insane. Im looking for a long opp, but we are just beneath lows from July, so may hang on for a final push lower for a long term trade, i noticed in your commentary you were also thinking long down here if i got that right?
 
Some of the euro pairs through me for a loop-- crosses with the yen, aussie, swissy. This is because I was wrong on my evaluation that the EUR/USD was going to make a correction from the top of the daily cloud. The EUR/AUD finally got its bearings together, and it is looking good, thanks in part, to the extreme, predicted weakness of the AUD.
The 2 most extreme pairs are the EUR/CHF and the GBP/CAD. When the reversals happen, they are going to be huge.
BTW, the EUR/AUD, as an example, made a huge move UP today, but this is not the type of strong reversal I was alluding to in the previous paragraph. By the time it gets to circa 1.47, it will be wore out and ready to come back DOWN. The GBP/CAD and EUR/CHF have implications of what we saw happen to many of the USD pairs in the past 2 weeks. They made excellent MT trades for those that took advantage of them. The EUR/AUD is one of those deals where you are in and 2-3 days later out with nice gains. The LT radar, though, has still not changed. It is 1.7525.
Many times I prove to be a better forecaster than trader (I Still get my pips.). As an example, I saw momentum waning with the EUR/CHF earlier. Indications were also there that my forecast would be slightly off concerning it. So, I should have just bitten the bullet and got out with about a 40-pip gain. Instead, I am now sightseeing, waiting to report another successful trade, as I sit for the time being on the sidelines and pout-- lol.


Forgot to add, did you see EURCHF made all time lows today (flight from risk etc etc), insane. Im looking for a long opp, but we are just beneath lows from July, so may hang on for a final push lower for a long term trade, i noticed in your commentary you were also thinking long down here if i got that right?
 
Interesting stat

This will be the 13th out of 15 Augusts that the USD/JPY will finish with a bear candle. The exceptions were 2006 and 2008.
 
Gbp/usd

I had to post this chart just to point something out.
Cable was OS on the daily. At that level, it means the bounce will hit both the tenken and the kijun. At the time, the tenken was around 1.5720, so I was waiting for a retracement back to that level.
I was wrong on the 1.57 circa area for the retracement, but I just noticed that yesterday on one final fling up, it did hit the tenken. Okay so I was write on it hitting the tenken, but the orignal supposition was wrong. Either way, in looking for an entry to get back in the DOWN it made no pips.
Today, it finally hit the 1.5447 mark, and it has been vaccilating arounf that area today. We will have a finish under it, and the nexxt stop will be 1.5278, which was the projected mark, even before we were back in the DOWN .Notice the extreme S with the top of the cloud and the 200 MA, along with the 1.5278 mark. I've missed it before, but that area should be containment for awhile. As of now, the verdict is still out if we get a move lower.
 

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Re: Interesting stat

This will be the 13th out of 15 Augusts that the USD/JPY will finish with a bear candle. The exceptions were 2006 and 2008.

This pair has another week to go and it may not finish with a bear candle...
 
Re: Interesting stat

Hi Dave! I don't think the downside is over with. I think it has another leg south .Circa 83.00 looks good to go long, in my opinion.


This pair has another week to go and it may not finish with a bear candle...
 
Re: Interesting stat

Hi Dave! I don't think the downside is over with. I think it has another leg south .Circa 83.00 looks good to go long, in my opinion.

Read my page Paul, I think it could go down small one more time, but I think the downhill slide is over or very near over. Anyway even if it has one more slide south, after that is over the upside potential is huge...............
 
Re: Interesting stat

Yes, now me and my 2nd favorite forecaster agree :LOL:
You better hope Max is wrong. He is counting on circa 80.00.


Read my page Paul, I think it could go down small one more time, but I think the downhill slide is over or very near over. Anyway even if it has one more slide south, after that is over the upside potential is huge...............
 
I'm having a good night of trading I'm up more than 30% with long EUR_USD, AUD_USD, NZD_USD, USD_JPY, and short EUR_AUD............These are short term trades if anyone else is watching, but they are good trades for the next several hours........
 
I'm having a good night of trading I'm up more than 30% with long EUR_USD, AUD_USD, NZD_USD, USD_JPY, and short EUR_AUD............These are short term trades if anyone else is watching, but they are good trades for the next several hours........

Except for the USD_JPY,,,,,,,,,I'm in for the long haul with a small position that can withstand a new low.
 
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