Sniper Forex System

[salvadorveiga]

There is no need for 10 losses in a row with this approach on H1 and a highier TF on G/U. (It is not imposible, but unlikely to happen 10 in a row). I think this approach is likely to be succsesful, because it is based on a firm principle/s in relation to PA. I do not claim to follow this approach exclusively at the expanse of the rest, but I do follow the PA according to the principle/s that this approach is build on. For me the principles are more important then their application in any system/s.
It is also worth mentioning that G/U has bigger moves in London and US session, and signals generated at these times are likely to be of more value. Actually there are some good moves up to 2 hours before the London's open. When the ATR is reached, I usually do not trade after 4pm (+1GMT), as the market often is range bound.
When I related to the "black box" I was relating to the mentality and practise to trade somebody's else system without any attempt to understand it.
I am of the opinion that this is indeed a good system, and it shall produce even greater profits if one has done some homework and understands it more. It is also sold at a very realistic price.
Any discretionary system in relation to any part of its application will produce different results, as one cannot guarantee the constant state of the market condition/s. Things like the size of the first entry, and any subsequent entries, timing and so on will vary, so that the same approach might produce different results.
Personally I think that at the present state of the market H1 TF affords some very good trades. It does not mean that the shorter TF are useless, but the perspectine of H1 and H4 is very important.

It's not likely but it can happen... and i always focus on what I can lose, or what can happen for me to lose... I don't focus on how much i can win, if I focus enough on the former, the profits will take care of themselves and start piling on their own... concentrating on not losing or to cut the losses short is probably the most iportant collorary in my opinion

I still have to test it with an intersection of time frames like you say.. i've been thinking of testing it as well...

 

[trendie]

It's good to have a long-running thread that is positive about a paid-for system.

Just to echo 2bes positive comments, I think its a pretty good all-round system.

I think it's a good system to make money while you learn about the market.
So good, in fact, I wrote to Gary extolling the usefulness of Sniper.
Typical of me, the first thing I did was modify it to my own needs.

Keep up the positive work, and the number-crunching.
Keep posting real-time trades, and real-time analysis; it's important to see what you think you see as it happens, as compared to a back-test where you fool yourself into believing you would have got it right each time, or fool yourself into thinking you wouldn't have sweated so much with a losing trade!

 

[GumRai]

...............................................................................
When you say risking 3% capital with SL at 80, i disagree... the SL doesn't matter... my risk for example is always the same 1%. Be it with a stop at 10 pips or with a stop at 400 pips away it's always 1%................

...........................

Sorry, but surely the stop loss does matter otherwise how can you assess the potential loss?
If you have a bank of 10,000 Pounds and you are prepared to risk 1% of your bank on a trade, how to you decide how many lots/Ppp to trade?

Eg using spreadbetting Pounds per pips as it's easier than working in lots....

10,000 Bank
Risk 1% = 100
Stoploss at 10 pips,
100/10 = trade at 10Ppp
Stoploss at 100 pips,
100/100 = trade at 1Ppp

I would personally prefer to work with an average
Having only just installed the Sniper demo, I can only guess that expected maximum loss would be about 100 pips on average.
So working with a 10,000 bank, risking 3%

10,000 Bank
Risk 3% = 300
Assessed loss potential 100 pips
300/100 = trade at 3Ppp (approximately a half lot)

 

[GumRai]

Hi Greenfield, thanks for posting your results - have you put them on a spreadsheet?

Basically you've said that you've achieved 50% trades with profit. 40 points average profit on the gaining trades.
Is this overall results, ie taking into account splitting the trade into 2, taking profit at 80 pips on one and letting the other run its course?
Are you able to separate the 2 lots? It would be interesting to know the results of the trades that you let run their course.

I ask this because if you split the trade into 2 and you achieve the 80 pips target on one and then the other moves into loss, you are still likely to make a small profit.

Example.

1a - Deal 1 lot that moves 100 pips into profit take profit at 80 pips
1b - Deal 1 lot that moves 100 pips into profit, let the deal run its course - stopped with 50 pips loss

Actual profit - 30 pips

2a - Deal 1 lot that doesn't hit the 80 pips take profit level and stopped with 50 pips loss
2b - Deal 1 lot, stopped with 50 points loss

Actual loss 100 pips

So, in the above example, would you consider this to be 1 gainer and 1 loser, or 1 gainer and 3 losers?

 

[trendie]

good stats, GumRai.

what does your analysis say is the average loss, average win, and average weekly pip tally?
about how many trades per week is this?
and are you only taking trades during the 7am-5pm slot?

does your analysis show that kind of data? thanks

 

[forexkunta]

Hi Greenfield, thanks for posting your results - have you put them on a spreadsheet?

Basically you've said that you've achieved 50% trades with profit. 40 points average profit on the gaining trades.
Is this overall results, ie taking into account splitting the trade into 2, taking profit at 80 pips on one and letting the other run its course?
Are you able to separate the 2 lots? It would be interesting to know the results of the trades that you let run their course.

I ask this because if you split the trade into 2 and you achieve the 80 pips target on one and then the other moves into loss, you are still likely to make a small profit.

Example.

1a - Deal 1 lot that moves 100 pips into profit take profit at 80 pips
1b - Deal 1 lot that moves 100 pips into profit, let the deal run its course - stopped with 50 pips loss

Actual profit - 30 pips

2a - Deal 1 lot that doesn't hit the 80 pips take profit level and stopped with 50 pips loss
2b - Deal 1 lot, stopped with 50 points loss

Actual loss 100 pips

So, in the above example, would you consider this to be 1 gainer and 1 loser, or 1 gainer and 3 losers?

GumRai,
I would have to say that the number of wins verus losses really doesn't matter as much as how much in $ you are taking home, or the number of pips won. If I have 5 losses and 10 wins but my losses exceed my wins, then what is the point. If I cannot get positive pips, then system is not sound. Now, if I go in with 2 trades at each signal, and close one at 50, 75, or 100, and I lose on the otherby 30 or 40 pips, then I have done what I started out to do, which is being positive. Otherwise, I have blown my account and that is very counter-productive.

I still have to refer back to one of Gary's books, that comes with the purchased Sniper, which states, "Never let a winning trade turn into a losing trade. It is a moral killer".

By going in with more than one trade, like greenfield and myself, and taking profit at say 75, then you feel alot more comfortable letting the other trade run. Personally, I have started changing my s/l on the open trade to break even +5 after the first trade closes at 75. If the market turns, then I still win. I am here to win! Period!!!!
If it takes me a little longer to get there that way, then so be it. watching a trade to go 100+pips and then turn and go negative, really really pisses me off. Why let it do it!

Usually the most that a trade on GBPUSD or GBPGPY retraces is around 60-70 pips, but on a trend change b/e =5 at 100pips profit is enough to let the trade breath. Not always, but most of the time. I am worried about most of the time more. But the b/e +5 takes care of "not always".
Kunta

 

[forexkunta]

Oh, by the way. That is 3 losers and negative pippage, any way you look at it. Just say no to negative pippage.

 

[GumRai]

good stats, GumRai.

what does your analysis say is the average loss, average win, and average weekly pip tally?
about how many trades per week is this?
and are you only taking trades during the 7am-5pm slot?

does your analysis show that kind of data? thanks

Did you mean to address this to Greenfield?

 

[GumRai]

GumRai,
I would have to say that the number of wins verus losses really doesn't matter as much as how much in $ you are taking home, or the number of pips won .......... ......... .......... ...... ........

Of course at the end of the day, profit is the main consideration.
But as Greenfield has effectively been making 2 separate trades at each signal, it would be interesting to know which one makes up the bulk of the profits.

 

[greenfield]

Hello GumRai,
The figures that I posted are only from each trade as per the rules exiting as the rules dictate. I didn't include the 'parallel' trade, i.e. TP at 75 in the figures (this is my own variation on Gary's suggestion to divide each trade into 5 trades).

I've taken 112 trades, during 92 days, adhering to the rules (to the best of my abilities!). It works out at a gain of 24 pts a day, 20 pts per trade. 56 wins, 56 losses. The average winning trade 49.6, average losing trade 29.7

I felt there may well be some benefits to Gary's system of dividing trades up into 5. Looking back at some the trades, there have certainly been occasions when big gains have disappeared. Some examples: trade when closed -40 (reached a maximum of +82), -54 (+41), -84 (+98), -83 (+88), +11 (+124), -61 (+66), -42 (+95), -65 (+84), -78 (+75), -99 (+33), -106 (+56), -10 (+95), -56 (+54), +9 (+124). These are some of the main examples of losing big gains. Although these are only 13% of the total number of trades.

What I did was to make a note of the maximum number of points that could have been gained with each trade; and on a spreadsheet, ask what if there was a TP at 50, 55, 60 ….......... to 150. The principle being the higher the TP the higher the potential number of points that could be made per trade, but the higher the number the less likelihood of reaching that number. The figures that came up are not what I would have expected. So the average gain per trade (following the rules) is 20 pts. If TP at 50 av gain +19; TP60 +15; TP75 +18; TP90 +18; TP95 +20; TP100 +18; TP110 +22; TP115 +23; TP120 +24; TP130 +24; TP135 +26; TP140 +25; TP150 +23.

Make of that what you will! I'm not sure that I would be at ease putting in a TP at 135. Also, as I've stressed before, I need to question how statistically significant a list of 112 trades is. And, we no doubt enter at slightly different levels. So this shouldn't be seen as particularly exacting.

It seems that there's not a lot in it. This probably shouldn't be relevant to trading, but I think there's a psychological factor here – seeing that we've gained something from a trade that ends up at a loss. But, on the other hand, that trade may go on to become a gain of 200+, 300+ ….. So that's why I take out 2 trades each time.
Bye,

 

[GumRai]

Greenfield,
that is GREAT information - thanks for your efforts.
Your results certainly seem to indicate that your method of splitting the trade is beneficial - not least to make the bitter pill of losses easier to swallow.

Sorry to be a pain with my questions, but it is good to know how others are using this system and getting results.

 

[salvadorveiga]

Sorry, but surely the stop loss does matter otherwise how can you assess the potential loss?
If you have a bank of 10,000 Pounds and you are prepared to risk 1% of your bank on a trade, how to you decide how many lots/Ppp to trade?

Eg using spreadbetting Pounds per pips as it's easier than working in lots....

10,000 Bank
Risk 1% = 100
Stoploss at 10 pips,
100/10 = trade at 10Ppp
Stoploss at 100 pips,
100/100 = trade at 1Ppp

I would personally prefer to work with an average
Having only just installed the Sniper demo, I can only guess that expected maximum loss would be about 100 pips on average.
So working with a 10,000 bank, risking 3%

10,000 Bank
Risk 3% = 300
Assessed loss potential 100 pips
300/100 = trade at 3Ppp (approximately a half lot)

if the stop loss is larger you buy less...

Stop loss cannot be a fixed distance since volatility in the market is always changing... therefore you need to constantly change where you put your stops, if you always use for example 20 pips all the time you'll be killed over time.

Maybe 20 pips were enough 2 years ago, but now that volatility is high 20 pips is nothing, so you have to constantly change it.

Take for example the turtle method where their stops were a volatility measure of 2N, where N was the ATR of the previous 20 session. If ATR was 115 pips, then they would put their stops at 230 pips away.

Your risk is always the same no matter where the stop loss is... my stop can be 10 pips away or 1000 pips away and my risk is the same: 1%.

Let's take an example you have an account of 10,000 USD.

You want to trade GBPUSD stop loss at 45 pips risking 1%.

10,000 USD * 0.01 /0.0045 = 100 USD / 0.0045 = 22,222 USD position size.

Therefore you'd buy with a 45 pip stop loss a position size worth 22,222 USD. If your stop loss was hit, you'd lose 100 USD.

Now let's imagine your stop loss is 300 pips.

100 USD (1% of your account) / 0.0300 = 3333,33

a position size of only 3333 USD if you had been taken out you'd lose again just the 1% = 100 USD.

The furthest away a stop loss is the smaller your position size... the closer it is to your entry point the biggest it is your position.

This enables you to face your system and your bottom line in terms of R's. Where your trades are measured in terms of multiples of R (R is amount risked) ... the stop loss is meaningless when it comes to position sizing, it serves as protection and to assess the question of "How much?"

as far as getting out of the trades at certain levels such as +50 pips or +75, scaling out of the position, my testing on Sniper and not just on sniper but on other systems that i trade myself (mostly trend following), I've always come to the conclusion from the data that this on the long run caps the potential of your profits and is better to let it ride... I know it's tough to let a big actual win to evaporate and turn out to be a minor win... but I feel comfortable on doing it because long term I know my expectancy is higher than someone that scales out of their position, although probably I would have to endure more pain, or at least my gains wouldn't be as consistent.

For newbies I agree that probably the scaling out is a good idea, since psychologically it can affect you and it is easier on us to feel rewarded on a more consistent basis...

but that's just me, I have the philosophy of when I go to the plate I'll swing hard and expect for some home runs and good swings

 

[forexkunta]

Sorry, but surely the stop loss does matter otherwise how can you assess the potential loss?
If you have a bank of 10,000 Pounds and you are prepared to risk 1% of your bank on a trade, how to you decide how many lots/Ppp to trade?

Eg using spreadbetting Pounds per pips as it's easier than working in lots....

10,000 Bank
Risk 1% = 100
Stoploss at 10 pips,
100/10 = trade at 10Ppp
Stoploss at 100 pips,
100/100 = trade at 1Ppp

I would personally prefer to work with an average
Having only just installed the Sniper demo, I can only guess that expected maximum loss would be about 100 pips on average.
So working with a 10,000 bank, risking 3%

10,000 Bank
Risk 3% = 300
Assessed loss potential 100 pips
300/100 = trade at 3Ppp (approximately a half lot)

If you are looking at a s/l of that small of a size, you should really look at trading a smaller lot size. That way you are not risking as much as you would at a full lot. When you have your acct larger in size then trade, full lots. Just as an example, when trading demo, I will use a full lot, but when trading live, I use .1. It is alot easier to trade larger lots when you are not risking real money.

 

[forexkunta]

Here is a link for a Forex position size calculator, and it is based on the pair that you are trading.

Forex Position Size Calculator

 

[GumRai]

if the stop loss is larger you buy less..

Stop loss cannot be a fixed distance since volatility in the market is always changing... therefore you need to constantly change where you put your stops, if you always use for example 20 pips all the time you'll be killed over time............................... .............................. ......................... .................................... ............
This enables you to face your system and your bottom line in terms of R's. Where your trades are measured in terms of multiples of R (R is amount risked) ... the stop loss is meaningless when it comes to position sizing, it serves as protection and to assess the question of "How much?"............. ................... ...................

So if the stop loss is larger you buy less,then how can the stop loss be meaningless when it comes to position sizing?

Obviously, we are discussing the Sniper system here, I only have the demo, so no experience with it as yet. I also believe that when you purchase the full package that you get a user manual of some sort.
I don't know if the manual includes adjustment of entry value based on the size of the stoploss, but I don't remember anybody mentioning it.
Everything that I've seen is based on pips gains or losses, not percentages.
To assess risk/reward realistically, you need a target - with this system there is not one.
Also, while a trade is open, the stoploss is usually constantly moving rendering the original stoploss meaningless.
I believe with a system like this that it is better to use an average to dictate the amount staked.
But we all have different opinions as to the best path to take, so we'll just have to agree to differ on this point :cheesy:

BTW when dealing with individual shares in the stockmarket, I will usually have a target and stop value and value the deal size more or less as you do.
Just looking at the GBP/USD, I'm not experienced enough with Forex to be confident, but I would say that there is a 30% chance of it hitting 1.7000 in the next week or two. I assess a stop level as 1.6350
If I'm right in my assessment, over 10 trades, I would gain on 3 and lose on 7 and would gain 1500 on the 3 winners and give up 1050 on the losers.(Assuming Monday it opens at 1.6500)
So IF I'm right in my assessment, it's a good trade.
In this case because I have a Target and a stoploss, I would set my entry level exactly the way you have done in your examples.
No, I won't be making this trade. It's an example and I have a lot more to learn about forex before I can make calls like this with confidence.

 

[salvadorveiga]

So if the stop loss is larger you buy less,then how can the stop loss be meaningless when it comes to position sizing?

Obviously, we are discussing the Sniper system here, I only have the demo, so no experience with it as yet. I also believe that when you purchase the full package that you get a user manual of some sort.
I don't know if the manual includes adjustment of entry value based on the size of the stoploss, but I don't remember anybody mentioning it.
Everything that I've seen is based on pips gains or losses, not percentages.
To assess risk/reward realistically, you need a target - with this system there is not one.
Also, while a trade is open, the stoploss is usually constantly moving rendering the original stoploss meaningless.
I believe with a system like this that it is better to use an average to dictate the amount staked.
But we all have different opinions as to the best path to take, so we'll just have to agree to differ on this point :cheesy:

BTW when dealing with individual shares in the stockmarket, I will usually have a target and stop value and value the deal size more or less as you do.
Just looking at the GBP/USD, I'm not experienced enough with Forex to be confident, but I would say that there is a 30% chance of it hitting 1.7000 in the next week or two. I assess a stop level as 1.6350
If I'm right in my assessment, over 10 trades, I would gain on 3 and lose on 7 and would gain 1500 on the 3 winners and give up 1050 on the losers.(Assuming Monday it opens at 1.6500)
So IF I'm right in my assessment, it's a good trade.
In this case because I have a Target and a stoploss, I would set my entry level exactly the way you have done in your examples.
No, I won't be making this trade. It's an example and I have a lot more to learn about forex before I can make calls like this with confidence.

in terms of the position sizing yes it indeed is important (sorry not native english sorry if i confused you)...

it's not a matter of being in the rules is just a money management technique... a very simple one actually it does say in the rules to risk around 1-2% per trade... then how you decide to scale out is up to you.

I find on my studies that scaling out harms a system.

Everything that I've seen is based on pips gains or losses, not percentages.

i'm sorry this is incorrect. A person can be positive in pips and yet it may have lost money...

A person can say "oh I'm up 200 pips since I started..." and its possible to be negative on $$ amounts... the same way it happens in the opposite being negative in pips and actually gaining money, that's why when I see a lot of people saying "ohh im up 500 pips.." my answer is: "so? that doesn't say anything..."

for example, lets imagine 3 trades:

Buy 1.6400 with stop loss at 1.6230 you risk 1% of 10,000 USD therefore you risk 100 USD. Stop loss is hit you lose 100 bucks and -170 pips

Next you sell 1.6540 with stop loss at 1.6640 now you risk again 1% which is 99USD (9900 * 1%). You lose 99 USD and -100 pips.

Total so far -270 pips -199USD

3rd trade, volatility has come down a bit so you buy 1.6350 with stop loss at 1.6305 risking 1% (1% * 9801 = 98 USD) so your size is 21777 USD so it's a pip value of $2.18.

Again we're down 199 USD and 270 pips.

the 3rd trade goes our way for 150 pips and we get out. Profit on trade $327 .

Bottom line P&L + 327 - 199 USD = +$128

P&L in pips you are -120 (negative) pips.

I now the explanation is very simple but i think i made my point, and like you see risk was constant always the same using an antimartingale approach. of course the same thing happens the other way around. Being positive in pips and actually losing money

best,

salvador

edit: I didn't calculate the position size for the first 2 trades because it was irrelevant, no matter what the size was once our stop was hit we'd lose the 1%. 100 USD and 99 USD on first and second trade respectively.

 

[GumRai]

salvador,

Hey, don't apologise for your English, seems like it's better than mine and I am a native speaker.:cheesy:

Very interesting, possible to be negative in pips, but still positive in cash. And vice versa.
I would hope that when people refer to pips profit/loss that they are using a constant investment per pip otherwise it would be very confusing.
Likewise, when using the stoploss to dictate the variable investment per pip, it should be reported in cash gains/losses or as a percentage of the bank.

Using a system like this, I prefer to use the same value per pip for each trade, whereas you will set the level according to the stoploss - who's right or wrong? Well it's just possible that we may both be right.

To be honest with you, it just never occurred to me that people posting their results in this thread were maybe using different values per pip for each trade. I took it for granted that if people were dealing at 1 Pound per pip, it would be the same for every trade. Ie a 100 pip gain equates to 100 Pounds and a 50 pip loss is 50 Quid down the gurgler. (Obviously if dealing in lots, the same lot value)

Greenfield, Kent and Trendie, which system do you use? Do you use the same lot value for every trade or adjust it to the stoploss?

 

[FormulaOneFan]

All the stats and numbers are very interesting indeed. As I'm based in UK spread betting forex is preferred choice as it is tax free.

I would like to understand why a fixed stop loss is a bad idea?

Lets take the following example:

My capital is £10,000
I'm prepared to risk 1% of capital on each trade = £100
£1 pound per point (per pip)
So naturally stop loss is set at 100 points (100 pips)

Is there any reason why stop loss can't be set at 100 point for each trade? Why fixed stop loss is bad?

 

[GumRai]

All the stats and numbers are very interesting indeed. As I'm based in UK spread betting forex is preferred choice as it is tax free.

I would like to understand why a fixed stop loss is a bad idea?

Lets take the following example:

My capital is £10,000
I'm prepared to risk 1% of capital on each trade = £100
£1 pound per point (per pip)
So naturally stop loss is set at 100 points (100 pips)

Is there any reason why stop loss can't be set at 100 point for each trade? Why fixed stop loss is bad?

There is nothing wrong with a fixed stoploss as long as you have a pre-determined target for exit. If you are using sniper, it has no preset exit point. You exit a trade when an arrow of the opposite colour appears or you hit the stop, whichever comes first. With a varying stop, then there is a chance that the stop will leave you in profit.
If you just set a fixed stoploss at 100, you also have to assess a target for exit.

 

[AcuteAngle]

Well for a start, say you always use 100 pips as your SL. What if the actual risk need only be 30 pips (based on whatever method or system you are using). Your just p1ssing away 70 pips for nothing when you could have closed out the trade already.

Your SL also affects how much your posistion size is worth. So I'd always establish my risk in the trade before entering, and not just using 100 pips or whatever.