Seeking consistency

[Leia]

Re: Eur gbp - update

I knew I would benefit from having an open journal, thanks for that challenging question.

I hadn't really thought about having a rule for trailing a stop on a successful trade. Previously I have moved my stop to breakeven as quickly as I perceive to be possible and then left the trade to either hit the stop (no loss) or target.

This particular example is moving slowly in the 'right' direction and I felt that I could move the stop to lock in some profit and still leave plenty of room for the price to retrace against me with out being stopped out.

I suppose that answers the question then, its discretionary, based on where I think a very strong support / resistance level exists that will not hinder the progress of my trade, but will still give me some reward should my target not be hit before the trend I am attempting to trade with reverses.

Great question though and something I need to give more thought to

thanks again

Hey,

Do you move your stops to 1:1 on a discretionary basis or is it a rule to use trailing stops with initial stop distance as increment?

 

[dealer911]

Re: Dax

4 Hour uptrend in place since 17th Feb

Now 'correcting' into the 20 / 50 moving averages area and (solid light blue line) recent support / resistance level and (dashed light blue lines) 50% and 61% fib levels of last upward move

Looks like this afternoons US session (next two or three 4 hour and lower time-frame bars) have the potential to set up for a long position trade

The solid dark blue levels are (thin) daily high and low (yesterday); (medium) weekly high and low; and (thick) monthly high and low. The February monthly low is off bottom of the scale of the current 4 hour chart screen shot

Christian has a 'buy on dips' stance. He quotes cash levels though and my chart is futures so the actual levels are of less significance to me than the direction he's looking at (also long)

This DAX chart looks bearish to me.. I like the shooting star formation which when found at a high price area (like this) is a failrly strong sell signal!.. guess that is what makes a market (2 different views!)

 

[Leia]

usd jpy

I noticed a hammer on my 4 hourly chart formed overnight inside my 'get long' zone between the 20ema & 50sma.

Price has been retracing back towards it this morning so I have placed an order to trade it. I'm concerned that due to the strenght of the last up move, this may not be the full extent of the retrace, having not even reached the 50% fib level. Other than that it has potential so lets see what happens

 

[Leia]

Re: Indices Tuesday April 6th

The US open looks to be pulling prices lower after Easter

I will keep an eye on S&P for a pullback to the 4 hr 20ma, or to between the 4 hr 20 and 50 and then a signal on a lower timeframe to get me into a long position (the daily and 4 hourly trends are very strongly bullish)

The pull-back didn't quite get to a level I was comfortable with before whizzing off to post new highs, so no trades taken on indices yesterday

 

[Leia]

Re: Dax

This DAX chart looks bearish to me.. I like the shooting star formation which when found at a high price area (like this) is a failrly strong sell signal!.. guess that is what makes a market (2 different views!)

Of course, price goes up & down. I have been looking for short levels all year on the indices, but they resolutely keep marching higher. That doesn't mean you can't get some good pips out of all the 'down' moves too.

My trading style (on this thread) is to try to find an entry that will take me with the 4 hour trend for a few days or possibly even weeks. Therefore I am only looking for potential set ups to get me in long at the moment.

Hope that makes sense & thanks for your post (if you are short today, are you targeting yesterdays low or lower?)

 

[Leia]

gbp usd

The news @ 7pm UK time has been kind to this trade and I have now moved my stop up to a break even position.

Just stopped out of this trade. However I also see a re-entry opportunity, once again relying on the Daily 20ema to act as support, the recent low makes (hopefully) a double bottom with yesterdays. I misses the first 15m entry set up (hammer), so have taken the next 15m option (the bullish engulfing / outside candle) with my stop below yesterdays low

My 4 hourly trend is still bullish (based on 20ema being above 50sma and both sloping upward). However this is right at the bottom of their 'channel' and the last 4 hourly High was a lower High than its predecesor, so this could signal the start of a trend change to either ranging or downwards. Time will tell...

 

[Leia]

Re: usd jpy

I noticed a hammer on my 4 hourly chart formed overnight inside my 'get long' zone between the 20ema & 50sma.

Price has been retracing back towards it this morning so I have placed an order to trade it. I'm concerned that due to the strenght of the last up move, this may not be the full extent of the retrace, having not even reached the 50% fib level. Other than that it has potential so lets see what happens

Stop hit.... If it rallies from here I merely had too tight a stop by 1.5 pips!!

Anyway

Second trade to close on this thread = -35 pips
First was cable at be

therefore cumulative result is -35 pips

 

[Leia]

cad usd - getting ready?

Has the news provided the push back up to allow a short set up to be taken?

watching 15m & hourly for opportunities around this price

 

[The Artist]

Hi,

Another question, since you just bid on cable; since you have a "medium-term" strategy, how do you handle days like tomorrow?
You have already committed to trade within 24h of the most important econ data release of the week, but does it affect your target, stop? Are you not concerned about liquidity drought when today's european session ends?

I am just a curious about how structured your trading plan is. I am more mechanical in my trading in the sense that I need to have most scenarios covered with associated risk management conditions beforehand, so I can automate everything. It would be interesting to know how it works out for you who is more discretionary in application.

 

[Leia]

Re: usd jpy

1 hour timeframe offers an entry opportunity too:
(risk 30 pips)

Stop hit.... If it rallies from here I merely had too tight a stop by 1.5 pips!!

Anyway

Second trade to close on this thread = -35 pips
First was cable at be

therefore cumulative result is -35 pips

 

[Leia]

Re: cad usd - 30 min tf set up

watching 15m & hourly for opportunities around this price

It appeared on the 30min timeframe and I think I have missed it. Order placed anyway, lets see

 

[Leia]

Hi,

Another question, since you just bid on cable; since you have a "medium-term" strategy, how do you handle days like tomorrow?
You have already committed to trade within 24h of the most important econ data release of the week, but does it affect your target, stop? Are you not concerned about liquidity drought when today's european session ends?

I am just a curious about how structured your trading plan is. I am more mechanical in my trading in the sense that I need to have most scenarios covered with associated risk management conditions beforehand, so I can automate everything. It would be interesting to know how it works out for you who is more discretionary in application.

Hi there

Thanks for taking the time to post another thoughtful and interesting comment. Yes, it will be interesting indeed.

I only look for the news release times at the start of each day to prepare me for a potential set up (for example USD CAD earlier) opportunity. The USD JPY set up I took at around the same time (twice!) was not news release related ,as far as I know.

My objective (at the moment, on this thread) is to get into what I perceive as the four hourly trend. My cable trend (my 20 and 50 ma's) are long at the moment, hence I have taken what I see as potential set ups to get long. If I'm wrong (or even spiked out by a news release tomorrow) then I'll lose on this trade.

Only time will tell me if this style of discretionary trading suits my personality, or if I need to start building more mechanical rules. If so, perhaps you will be kind enough to give me some ideas that work for you?

 

[Leia]

Re: gbp usd - update

I am nervous (as stated below) about my 4hour trend holding, so have moved my stop very quickly to break even, due to the bearish hourly candle that just printed possibly implying the 4hrly 20ma has now become a resistance level.

At least I won't lose anything if cable starts to turn downwards now

However this is right at the bottom of their 'channel' and the last 4 hourly High was a lower High than its predecesor, so this could signal the start of a trend change to either ranging or downwards. Time will tell...

 

[Leia]

Re: cad usd - 30 min tf set up

Stop hit for -20

cumulative results so far:
result running total
GPB USD 0
JPY USD -35 -35
CAD USD -20 -55

what did I say about stops being hit in my introduction post to this thread, I think I need to allow these trades a bit more space to move

I just re-read my post number 28 regarding this pair. The attached chart has a note stating "will 1.00 50 hold as resistance now it has been broken as strong support".
So why was my stop for this particular trade placed below this level rather than (say) 10 pips above it?
Best I read my 4 hourly charts again before I place my stop and target levels on trades that have set up triggers on lower timeframes

It appeared on the 30min timeframe and I think I have missed it. Order placed anyway, lets see

 

[Leia]

Re: usd jpy

1 hour timeframe offers an entry opportunity too:
(risk 30 pips)

Also stopped out for -30 this time

cumulative results so far:
(second colum is the result running total)
GPB USD 0 0
JPY USD -35 -35
CAD USD -20 -55
JPY USD -30 -85

 

[Leia]

Re: Eur gbp - update

Target hit @ 0.87 50 = +160 pips

cumulative results so far:
(second column is the running total result)
GPB USD 0 0
JPY USD -35 -35
CAD USD -20 -55
JPY USD -30 -85
GBP USD 0 -85
EUR GBP+160 +75

I have just moved my stop to 0.88 75, locking in 40 pips profits at roughly 1:1 risk / reward of the opening position, because its just above what I perceive to be the current resistance level at 88.60, prior to the current push lower (purple line)

 

[Leia]

gbp usd

Once again my long trade has been stopped out at break even.

It seems that the price is trading in a narrowing range and as there is big news out today I am looking to take a trade in the direction of the break out of the range. Broadly long above 1.53 00 and short below 1.51 00 (fx500 club have notified of similar set ups, Christian is looking to continue buying the low 1.51 85 to the top of the range 1 52.60)

 

[Leia]

aud usd

Price is pulling back into the 20/50 4 hourly and 50% 61.8% fib retracement levels

the hourly indicates a rejection of 0.92 20 area, lets see if this can hold as support
(Christian is looking to buy dips to 0.92 40 for 0.93) I'm setting a higher target, based on my 4h channel of 0.94, just below this years high

 

[Leia]

indices (Dax)

Last night and this morning have seen a fall off on stock markets. I'm waiting to see if they get as low as my buy areas (between my 4hr 20 & 50 ma's) and if so, find support from which I can get in with a long position

 

[Leia]

Re: indices (SnP)

I have taken a long position @ 1181 on SnP, stop is @ 1174 and target is 1188, which is only 1:1 risk / reward

(I have moved my stop up to break even, below the low of the last hourly candle, incase this is a change in trend as opposed to a pull back!)

Last night and this morning have seen a fall off on stock markets. I'm waiting to see if they get as low as my buy areas (between my 4hr 20 & 50 ma's) and if so, find support from which I can get in with a long position