Nikkei Lookin' Good?

[Hook Shot]

Talk about volatility

Nikkei has fallen 1000pts in 3d
Have we got a low in the pre NY sesh at 12880 futs or more melting tonight ??

I want to go long Nikkei but for "June" (so want some early weakness in US indices to consider).. march cct is a big close

 

[Hook Shot]

Tonight Tues 4th March will be big .........

Nikkei was smashed in Asia so now we are looking for a bounce......
If dow softens into the close we should break 13k on March Futs and then 12880 comes into view ........ That's what I really really want since I thnk we are getting stretched on the downside in the near term... a further slide at the open tonight (uk time) should give me the oversold bounce I'm looking for............. thereafter who knows ?

 

[Hook Shot]

Be careful what you wish for..... we're off!!!

Nikkei was smashed in Asia so now we are looking for a bounce......
If dow softens into the close we should break 13k on March Futs and then 12880 comes into view ........ That's what I really really want since I thnk we are getting stretched on the downside in the near term... a further slide at the open tonight (uk time) should give me the oversold bounce I'm looking for............. thereafter who knows ?

:clap::clap: but early days on the bigger bounce - march futs 13073 ...err almost 200 bounce so far

* incidentally we hit 12880 march cct in before noon monday in uk i.e After hours ... so .... that's why I was harping on about that level!!

I know dow part was not quite right but forgive me I'm stll learning........

 

[Hook Shot]

Today Nikkei cash hits ~ 62% of the 03-08 bull phase @ 11680/90 zone

 

[Hook Shot]

Nikkei (June) hits 12460 and peels off...........

A bloke on bloomberg was surprised that Jap banks had been silent about their offs (after all they bought the toxic stuff too). So Nikkei is even more interesting than usual.

Cashwise the bounce in nikkei is as yet unconincing ..we have closed monday's gap but not really gone on ....... yet......... I WANT it to fly up cos I think confession time is around the corner ...

 

[Hook Shot]

Overnight Nikkei cash hit 12870ish the highest since its low of 11691 low......
Weirdly it tested 12500 (Jan Lows) again last night making it two nights running before putting in a steep climb to new swing highs..... I thnk I saw June futs somewhere in region of 12920 during the full trading day

I would imagine we get a higher low at some stage so the nikkei becomes very interesting as it continues the rally - in the face of a US sell off. I continue to watch 12500 cash .......

Nikkei has been an awful performer and is over 5000 points (~30%) off last years high compared to 2000pts ((~15%) for the dow.....

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The Nikkei/Dow spread widened today to 540+ at one point having been below 200 overnight and around parity (spread =0) only a few days ago...

I mention this because Nikkei has historically traded well above the numberical value of the dow. Remember Nikkei 39k in 1989 and 11 year later dow hit 11800. Whenever things calm down ... (or perhaps before) the spread should go back to normal with Nikkei leading dow by some considerable margin ...... It may be that nikkei is starting to widen the gap as we speak time will tell - but as a fellow trader mentioned earlier the spread should expand signficantly over the longer term given the differing propsects for Asia compared to the US...

Put simply if you can pick up nikkei at discount to dow it would be great long term spread play imho..

 

[tachograph]

With the Nikkei in the 12000's I would have expected a bit more interest in it on the long side - is anyone out there trading or planning to trade it?

 

[nine]

Its well worth remembering that a stock or index going down can always go lower. No low too low; no high too high. The technical term: catching falling knives.

There were a lot of bleeding investors in 2000/2001.

 

[tachograph]

I can't see the nikkei being able to go anywhere unitl the worst of the financial disiasters are out in the open and that isn't going happen in a hurry. I have been a sucker for the falling knife before so a little bit more wary this time. Long term though, I fel the nikkei has great upside potential - it's just figuring out when the short term risk will be behind us. I am new to T2W - can't find many good forums for the nikkei.

 

[nine]

I trade taiwan and aussie (nikkei lacks intraday range usually and hang seng has a bit much) and haven't really seen much anywhere on the Nikkei.

 

[Hook Shot]

Nikkei spilled from last friday's swing high (recov hi) and went below 12 500.!!! Closing just above.

The omens are not good - but will await further activity around the pivotal (4me anyhow) 12500

As for it can go lower yep...... and we should be careful but then we should know that .....

As for more interest in it now it's in the 12000's agree 100%. Forgetting my stuff about the spreads - the nikkei is more reactionary than the dow - and fell well over 350 from their highs Friday and you could have got well over 12855 on Nikkei futs in US sesh.....

With that almost 1200 bounce off the lows it's just a case of putting the retrace lines on the chart - if your like me.....

Incidentally, I remember a few years back with Nikkei under 8000 the daily range was barely 40pts some days .........amazing!

Tacho - Nikkei has been narrow the last week or so but that's when I become a full on swinger... aussie is mental these days considering its only half size of the other boys...

 

[Hook Shot]

Nikkei again traded the 12500ish zone now 4d running...

This beast is getting harder to read ... however on a closing basis we "seem" to have tested the key level on monday .. at least that's what last nights 131pt rally would tend to indicate. But yes one day does not a trend make and I really expect to see some violence now....... rip out 12500 OR a rocket move towards 12900/13000......

Bulls will say the rocket move has begun........... I'm watching and waiting
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Trading wise will trade it as a US proxy...in the US timezone. (1)So a failed rally in US would be nice... (2) A rocket move in US which holds would get me thinking about whether this will take Nikkei futs out of it's comfort zone......... Last weeks highs were around 12920 Futs and last night appeared to print 12810-20 hi.

 

[Hook Shot]

We're POISED...

Nikkei again traded the 12500ish zone now 4d running...

This beast is getting harder to read ... however on a closing basis we "seem" to have tested the key level on monday .. at least that's what last nights 131pt rally would tend to indicate. But yes one day does not a trend make and I really expect to see some violence now....... rip out 12500 OR a rocket move towards 12900/13000......


Bulls will say the rocket move has begun........... I'm watching and waiting
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Trading wise will trade it as a US proxy...in the US timezone. (1)So a failed rally in US would be nice... (2) A rocket move in US which holds would get me thinking about whether this will take Nikkei futs out of it's comfort zone......... Last weeks highs were around 12920 Futs and last night appeared to print 12810-20 hi.

We're testing last weeks highs as we speak... but I'd really like to see at least 13000 on futs and better 13100 futs....... pre Tokyo open.

We now want the dow to rally hard........ :cheesy: but I'll still take a failed US rally providing I can get closer to 13k on nikkei

If that happens I would expect a short term payoff but which might last in the wee hours

 

[Hook Shot]

Be careful what you wish for ?

We're testing last weeks highs as we speak... but I'd really like to see at least 13000 on futs and better 13100 futs....... pre Tokyo open.

We now want the dow to rally hard........ :cheesy: but I'll still take a failed US rally providing I can get closer to 13k on nikkei

If that happens I would expect a short term payoff but which might last in the wee hours

We are seeing 13050+( futs) so very close to 13,100 where it gets a bit frothy (?) since Tokyo is hours and hours away..........

 

[Hook Shot]

Nikkei again traded the 12500ish zone now 4d running...

This beast is getting harder to read ... however on a closing basis we "seem" to have tested the key level on monday .. at least that's what last nights 131pt rally would tend to indicate. But yes one day does not a trend make and I really expect to see some violence now....... rip out 12500 OR a rocket move towards 12900/13000......

We are called up around +550 is that violent enough for you........??

I'm now looking to play the fizzle either in US time or by the time we open in Tokyo
...............

 

[Hook Shot]

Oh dear .... move continues

We are called up around +550 is that violent enough for you........??

I'm now looking to play the fizzle either in US time or by the time we open in Tokyo
...............

There was a bit of erosion but all in all price continued to the moon even rejecting an opp to sell off Thurs in Tokyo. My short is still a loser but not as sick as it was... I'm comfy with it now....

Thursday swing high at 13389/90 compares to 13343 which is 25% retrace of the slide off 18300 last year... not sure if it means anything but thought I would state it..

Friday in Tokyo failed to make higher highs and made an INSIDE DAY. However it remains within shooting distance of new swing highs for sunday night ..if

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I've not played this index very well (so far) but as the rally proceeds we should get a dip to at best form a low above 12500ish zone to continue.... logically. It's tempting to expect a move sub 13k next week. But for now ... I'm taking it one step at a time and observing US timezone pricing to TRY to get an early bird ride on the next trend
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