Nikkei Lookin' Good?

[Hook Shot]

With Nikkei again rewarding the bears .......... it's getting too damn easy. I expected a feeble bounce and ....
Anyway got some sleep so now recharged ............ We have MANY MANY more days of fun to come in 07 - and maybe a big dipper in Q1! (best guess within 8wks - crystal ball a bit cloudy)

Stats - 17057/16758 - closing at 16838 ( +100 from open then -300 waterfall !!!)

It came to pretty close Likely Bear Target ..... that made me chuckle.

Ranges have been wide since the top last Thursday... and lots of volatility ... despite ONLY seeing a 620ish fall top to tail. With 4 down bars in a row this move down may be over (near term) or at least is probably getting close to some kind of bounce...?

Sayonara

 

[Hook Shot]

Spreadies have the Nikkei up 190 or so........... mmmmh!
Don't get me wrong a rally is due as mentioned this morning but the pattern has been whenever prices are marked up they rally a bit and flop.

I do think it's brave calling nikkei up almost 200 as plenty can happen over the next 2hours - but they could be right. In fact .... the mark up is virtually guarranteeing an up bar taking out Thurs highs....

I'll watch in case that guarrantee turns out to be ........ optimistic .... at least in the early going!
However, to support the mark up a little bit - US/Euro markets were firm and Yen is weaker so that gives my waffle a bit more balance ?

FINALLY - I still want to short the Nikkei but need a rally (yep same ol- same ol) to pull the trigger AGAIN. The pre market mark up is helpful but I would prefer +300 heehee... or at least 17140-50 cash.

All the best fellow Nikki traders....be careful out there!!!

 

[Hook Shot]

15mins into trade the actual price was up 100.......

 

[andycan]

Pictionary!!

 

[Hook Shot]

Pictionary!!

Danke vielmals... Mein Herr...

Yep so your chart shows interesting level at 17300 on March Futures.... we should test that next week as we stalled a little at 17180 March Futures just before the close...which was also a downtrend from the highs you show on chart.

=========================================================================
Back to CASH !!!

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=SNIY

Friday 12th Jan ............High 17165 Low 16941 - close 17057+219

As we can SEE we've had a little 4d pbk to around 16750 zone and today was our first up day.
You can see we tested the downtrend line .... of the pullback [ imagine] and should really break it next week and possibly even test the swing highs near 17400.

So we should be about to see the trend resuming to the upside ..... and levels nearer the 2006 high at 17550-600 CASH may also be tested shortly!

Am I saying the slide is over ? No I'm just hinting that in the short term the pullback may have run its course for now and we may get higher levels to prep for that monster downwave I'm expecting..

Flipside is the test of the trend line today (plus other global factors) might combine to keep the pullback in place....but that's the easy play - i.e it's easy for a bear to put on a short on a market rally..... The more difficult one is to consider that the rally may continue... which is why I've played on that more.

RANGE still around 625ish .....so remains tight implying 17750+ or 16380ish for my 1000 range to be met ..... at the moment. In short we either see the highest levels since 2003 bear lows OR we slide a bit lower than we've seen this week..... assuming we ONLY get 1000 range

 

[Hook Shot]

At Last a Decent Bounce....

We did end our pullback and this morning went to marginal new highs for the post june rally.

We hit 17409 at least at time of typing.....after monster bounce off 17000 yesterday. Now we have higher levels talked about in last msg ..... the Nikkei for me is on over time..... regardless of what the BoJ does today.... Ideally, I'm wanting closer to 17560-600 the bulll market highs but I'm putting Nikkei on notice from now.....

With a bit of luck he/she will spit in my face and surge higher

 

[Hook Shot]

With a bit of luck he/she will spit in my face and surge higher

NIKKEI CASH
Well after an inside day on friday we got a big gap higher today and my face is dripping wet!

We made new swing highs for the summer rally.....but shy of the 17550-600 region!

With the softness seen in US there might just be a bit of a wobble in Tokyo...

FUTURES
March futures hit 17495 Monday and closed at 17420
In some places you can get 17390 NOW so there might be some value there...

But you can make your own mind up on that one as I could be wrong :cheesy:

Not sure how long those prices will last...........

 

[tawey]

Hi All,
Hopefully this thread keeps going.

 

[Hook Shot]

Nikkei is easy money if you have patience.....

It has held the 17200 zone and now wants to test itself ........... if the spirit is strong it will over-reach and give bears a small window to "hit and run"..... but for now I'm just watching as it makes new multi-year highs (highest since the April 2003 bear market lows)

As they say in cricket ....... I'm just waiting for the bad ball..

 

[Chocolate]

I always thought the spread on Nikkei was too large to make it worthwhile, or are you guys not spreadbetting? Also, what charts do you use? Stockcharts.com have good daily charts, but nothing intra-day...

 

[Atilla]

The Nikkei225 has hit the perfect support trend and lines up with Fib 61% retracement.

To top it off it has had a 10% fall from its highs of 18300.

This is one to watch for a bounce. The MACD + RSI still on the downside along with MAs but will watch this as an indicator to possibly the UK & US indices as to what might be round the corner.

Now might be a good time to start talking whether it's a correction or a crash. I'm in the dunno camp at the mo.

 

[Hook Shot]

Will the bounce exceed 4d ?
Will the bounce get back to 18300

I'm guessing bounce will not exceed 3d and will then test that uptrend to see what it's made of.
Despite the guess I'm just waiting to see how it pans out.

 

[Atilla]

Will the bounce exceed 4d ?
Will the bounce get back to 18300

I'm guessing bounce will not exceed 3d and will then test that uptrend to see what it's made of.
Despite the guess I'm just waiting to see how it pans out.

What is the significance of 3 or 4d for the bounce? Just curious.

 

[Atilla]

Will the bounce exceed 4d ?
Will the bounce get back to 18300

I'm guessing bounce will not exceed 3d and will then test that uptrend to see what it's made of.
Despite the guess I'm just waiting to see how it pans out.

We are on the 4th day of the Nikkei bounce. 18300 no where near in sight and so a lower high signals a big sell off soon I guess.

 

[ammo]

We are on the 4th day of the Nikkei bounce. 18300 no where near in sight and so a lower high signals a big sell off soon I guess.

what chartsite has nikkei and shanghai/

 

[Atilla]

what chartsite has nikkei and shanghai/

http://www.Stockcharts.com

Limited on time frames but a good site.

 

[Hook Shot]

Bit of value ?
Nikkei called up +150 after 500+ fall but US has strong finish...

I'll regret this post but ............

 

[Hook Shot]

Absolute pandemonium...........
marked down from +150 to -50 or so then shut down then back to +170 or so all in the space of 15-20mins..........

I knew it would cause ruxions..........

 

[Hook Shot]

Nikkei futures called up +220.......now

If this is overly optimistic Dow should get it in the NECK... ....... best to have a contingency of sorts - I always say.

I would expect a knee jerk rally out of the gate then thereafter i haven't the foggiest. The scenario is not particularly smart ......... no surprises there .... so trying to gauge what has been priced in is key to short term profit - IMO....

Further out.......... consensus appears to think global indices have bottomed and if the herd in Asia concur then we could have a ball tonight......... for me the JURY is out but there seems to be a short term arb opp.

 

[Hook Shot]

Here we are again.....

Nikkei in flat top triangle with cap at 13900ish (cash) on intraday basis........
This week we got the futs up to 13890 out of hours. Last night (and also around noon UK) we hit 13790 futs...

WILL we break out of the top or another test of cash 13300-13000 ???

A strong pop in US today (if we get it ) will put some stretch in the CME futs quotes before the live Nikkei opens tonight....I'm not anticipating a big 400+ day in Japan - so the bigger prem we get to pre tonight's kick off the better :cheesy:

The main point really is Nikkei has had a Feb range of around 900pts - and 300-400pts intraday ranges are not that rare......... although the volatility in European indices does compare favourably and much more whippy than Dow!!