New Trader ES trades/"Live" calls

I normally analyse the previous trading day activity to see if I can get an idea of what to expect the next trading day. Some days seem more “obvious” than others do or maybe sometimes I just make a lucky guess. I like to confirm my analysis by observing the overnight activity but I am back to work Monday so I won’t be able to update it if I feel I have misjudged the direction. This analysis is likely to change and does not constitute a recommendation.

ESM7 for Trading Day Monday 4th June.

It looks as if 1534-1536 will be the support level. The market closed at 1539.50, so if the overnight/Pre- cash market prices move down from this level then I expect it to open at around the 1534-1536 level and then move higher. I have no target or stop levels. This may change Monday morning. I have Internet access at work but no access to my trading application, so I won’t be able to make live calls.


Looks like the futures market is moving in the direction I expected. I don't have access to my trading application so I can't give any live updates. If I had much more confidence in my analysis I would have advised a sell @1539 with a target @1534-1535. But we are all experts in hindsight. As I said earlier, without my trading tools I can't say if 1534 will be a buy level.
 
Looks like the futures market is moving in the direction I expected. I don't have access to my trading application so I can't give any live updates. If I had much more confidence in my analysis I would have advised a sell @1539 with a target @1534-1535. But we are all experts in hindsight. As I said earlier, without my trading tools I can't say if 1534 will be a buy level.

It appears my analysis was right on the money. I was at work today and therefore was unable to record any of today's market data so I can't make any calls. But, if the prices move higher overnight I would be wary of the ISM Services and would look for a reversal not long after it's release, especially if there is a quick run up in prices just prior to the release.
 
ESM7-Trading Day Wed 6-6-2007

I only recorded the last ~1hr of Market Data.

A possible BUY @ 1532-1534. Updates will come later if possible.
 
Market is trading near my Support level and I am tempted to enter. Will watch closely, perhaps the market has further to fall...
 
Market likes my stops

Opening Size Closing P/L

1) 1528.60 +£10.00 1520.15 £-84.50
2) 1521.25 +£10.00 1517.75 £-35.00
3) 1519.25 +£10.00 1517.25 £-20.00
4) 1518.75 +£10.00 1516.50 £-22.50 (Stop moved up and was hit on retrace after being in profit)
5) 1517.85 +£10.00 1515.90 £-19.50 (Stop moved up and was hit on retrace after being in profit)
6) 1516.75 +£10.00 1515.25 £-15.00 (Stop moved up and was hit on retrace after being in profit)

7) 1517.75 +£10.00 1522.50 £47.50 (closed this morning)

The market likes retracing just enough to take out my stops and as a result I ran trade 7 overnight without a stop :eek: I would rather have woken up to my account being down £500 than to have another stop taken by stop hunters :mad: :mad:

I know, this is bad practice and bad trading. I am still practising and emotions, unfortunately, are still prevalent in my trading. I won’t be placing trades outside of cash market hours anymore either, something I said I would never do from the beginning :rolleyes:

NB: The above opening prices include the 1 point spread (trade 1 - 0.35) above the ESM 7 price. The reason the spread changed from 0.35 to 1 is because I planned to hold overnight and traded the June SPX500 Futures instead of the Daily June SPX500 futures. I was watching Price on the ESM 7 through my direct access broker which explains why some live calls are the ESM 7 price.
 
Last edited:
ESM7 Trading Day Thursday 7 June 2007

Although I closed my trade (I wanted a profit!) I think the markets will move higher. I think there will be support @ 1519-1520

Will update if possible.
 
Opening Size Closing P/L

1) 1528.60 +£10.00 1520.15 £-84.50
2) 1521.25 +£10.00 1517.75 £-35.00
3) 1519.25 +£10.00 1517.25 £-20.00
4) 1518.75 +£10.00 1516.50 £-22.50 (Stop moved up and was hit on retrace after being in profit)
5) 1517.85 +£10.00 1515.90 £-19.50 (Stop moved up and was hit on retrace after being in profit)
6) 1516.75 +£10.00 1515.25 £-15.00 (Stop moved up and was hit on retrace after being in profit)

7) 1517.75 +£10.00 1522.50 £47.50 (closed this morning)

The market likes retracing just enough to take out my stops and as a result I ran trade 7 overnight without a stop :eek: I would rather have woken up to my account being down £500 than to have another stop taken by stop hunters :mad: :mad:

I know, this is bad practice and bad trading. I am still practising and emotions, unfortunately, are still prevalent in my trading. I won’t be placing trades outside of cash markets anymore either, something I said I wouldn’t never do from the beginning :rolleyes:

hmm, always a tricky one. What are you trying to achieve, or whats your time holding approach to trading this? I mean are you looking to hold for a intra session positional trend? ie 20 + bars in your timeframe ? Or are you just looking at buying and selling volatility and coming out on the thrust for example .

Heres what I think on trends, no matter what timeframe , has the trend changed ? if not, why do i want to stop my position? o.k. valid reasons might be, profit objectives hit, you cannot watch any longer (have to go out etc) , your knackered. Or you realise you have screwed up reading the trend. (hopefully we improve continually on this so we become more expert over time experience etc) Also, what I think a stop is a disaster stop, likely to be roomy, not because we are rubbish at reading trends, but in case the price springs to a level that would be jaw dropping, leaving you think ,what the f. likely sudden news based. F that i'm off. (short term, pile in to blow out stops traders, I would think would use tight ones. Both ways, stops done, back through)


now if we use a fixed point stop, and depending on our entry (expertise ) in the trend, then theres a fair chance that it will be tested. Or if the stops are getting hit.

Maybe a quetion to ask is. Am I trading against the trend? (sentiment trend) If not then, hows my entry look ? rough, good, I mean I think the lowest risk in a trade of the trend is the first entry, but that may depend on waiting for a value price. I dont always wait, especially if im reversing, this frequently sees the trade go against my position, I know this, but if i read the trend is still as I perceived it, then I do not want to lose the position, but I have to allow a bigger draw, because of not waiting for a value entry. (you could add a second? ) never add to a losing position though ? well yeah but if the position is needing to be long, and you get value, then you could argue you will take advantage of the cheaper price, and average your entry between the 2, to be positioned for the correct trend.

Think im answering my own puzzle as what to do when reversing, but wanting to be positioned, when the market looks like springing, Need to be in, but it may not be on that occassion value as I would like it, not to worry, scale in, and average down if the value entry comes. Obviously first entry if not value, adjusted smaller size, prob.(ignore this, its just me thinking on my own niggles, not decided either way but its an option)


Anyway quickly eyeballing your stop hit on retracement numbers, had the trend changed to warrant you stopping it, by use of a fixed stop or not, or ,was the price just retracing but the trend was still according to your perception?

You see what I'm looking at, trend still in tact ?, why are you/we stopping our position?

Now heres another tricky one, if we are still learning to read sentiment trends, intent, and price in relation to it then its fair to expect we will likely suffer greater exposure to "making a non profitable or incorrect trade" . The answer, more study.

I realise Ive used the word incorrect trade implying I think theres a right way to trade. i think there is but its so bloody subjective. But the market will tell you, or your results will, if you are trading the right way. The results are pretty objective.

Just some idea's, I'm still learning and learn the hard way :) .

Maybe what should rattle in our heads at all times, is whats the trend now? and look to take a favourable position in it. Or look to exit when it changes,if objectives (fixed or dynamic) not already met. But we have to forget ourselves and be honest with what the markets telling us, when we can see it. And that can be a ball ache too. :)

Just my view of things to date.

Keep the faith.
 
Thanks for your views Crap Buddist. If ever there was a day where I could swear there was a conspiracy against me succeeding in the markets, yesterday would have been it. I even stopped posting my live trades because I became convinced the market was getting it's direction from me :mad: :mad: Paranoia...a terrible thing :eek:

Trades 4,5,6 and 7 (NO STOP) I made without an initial STOP, but my finger was poised over the 'exit' button in case the trade went against me. Did they? No! They all moved into profit. I decided to put a stop in so I could at least take a toilet break and what happens? What happens? As soon as my stop is in.....you guessed it :mad: :mad:
 
Last edited:
Hi New Trader,

I am curious to know what time frame you're trading.

Are you trend trading, counter-trend trading, range trading or trading breakouts?

Fibonelli
 
If only I had the courage to stay with my trades longer...(trade 5 would show a larger profit. last tick 1497.25 at 18:33 UK & my stop would be safe)

This is all for today, my nerves have had enough. I'm counting yesterdays trade (7) as part of todays trading, (technically it is, opened late yesterday evening and closed this morning). That way I walk away with a profit...good for the psyche..

1)(7) 1517.75 +£10.00 1522.50 £47.50
2) 1507.65 -£10.00 1509.35 £-17.00
3) 1502.60 +£10.00 1501.90 £-7.00
4) 1502.15 -£10.00 1504.35 £-22.00
5) 1502.65 -£10.00 1500.60 £20.50

If need to refine my timing even though some are excellent. Trade 5 would have been my best. Opened at 18:04 and closed at 18:17. Actual ESM7 price was 1503 with my stop at 1504.5. Now the market is @1495.00 at UK 18:41
 
Last edited:
I did make one last trade late in yesterday's session, my entry was good and I was expecting to hold overnight. At 18:50 I was
(ESU7)
LONG @1511.25
STOP @ 1505

Unfortunately I had to leave for work and hence didn't have access to my trading application. I could log into my SB account which I did at around 20:10, I held on to my trade....all the way down to 1507 :| where I closed it. Once again I moved my stop out of the way....expecting a recovery..

Need to work on my discipline and emotions...
Need to work on my discipline and emotions...
Need to work on my discipline and emotions...
Need to work on my discipline and emotions...
Need to work on my discipline and emotions...
Need to work on my discipline and emotions...
Need to work on my discipline and emotions...
Need to work on my discipline and emotions...
Need to work on my discipline and emotions...
Need to work on my discipline and emotions...
Need to work on my discipline and emotions...
Need to work on my discipline and emotions...

etc...etc...etc
 
Top