my journal 2

[Yamato]

still up

Still up. Still unable to go back to sleep. Damn child. He woke me up and now he's sleeping (like a baby), while I am still awake. That's because he's got no brain basically, nothing keeping him awake. He's got his short term memory. Like most other people, even adults.

Once again I know I will go to work, regardless of my 5 and a half hours of sleep. I am doing this to not blow my last shot at success. I can't risk getting fired. Not that anyone ever told me anything, but going late (showing up at noon) every other day would mean pushing my luck.

 

[Adamus]

Re: still up

I hear several different philosophies about choosing which systems you should trade, and which instruments you should trade different systems on. I've heard it called the "discretionary part of mechanical trading" which I disagree with in principle.

My approach is to trade a system on all instruments in my basket. I make seperate decisions about which instruments to include in my basket and once made, I'll trade them all.

I haven't really investigated any systems yet which only work on one instrument, but systems like the Forex Morning Trade system sound reasonable. But I would still be tempted to test it on the whole basket, with optimisation for each instruments allowed though.

And then comes the decision whether to trade the system. If the system works on its basket with sufficiently convincing backtesting and forward testing results, and it looks reasonable across the whole basket over the last year (even break-even or a slight loss is acceptable) and it looks good over the last 5 years (decent profit is obligatory here) then I'll trade it and take any losses until it blows my account. Perhaps in the future when I have more capital I'll change the approach and allocate x thousand to it and turn it off if it loses that much.

But I won't pick and choose the way you are. That seems to me like discretionary trading.

 

[Yamato]

I will reply as I read.

Yes, like you, I disagree with the concept "discretionary part of mechanical trading". Once you set the univocal rules, in money management, risk management, trading rules, and once you automate everything, what is there to decide?

Obviously at the start you use your discretion, in defining all those rules, but what defines mechanical trading is that once you have decided those rules, you keep them fixed for several months at least. Whereas, with discretionary trading, there's elements of discretion every time you trade.

We could sum it all up like this:
1) discretionary trading means using discretion on every single trade (trades are triggered by some univocal rules plus some discretion, always).
2) automated (or "mechanical") trading means using discretion ONLY when you define ALL the UNIVOCAL rules that will trigger the trades for a given period of time, period which (obviously) includes several trades.

Yes, in your second paragraph you are saying something that agrees with what I just said.

Yes, I agree completely with your third paragraph as well.

Regarding your fourth paragraph, I used to think like you ("I'll trade this system until it blows out my account"), I used to do differently than what I thought (I stopped trading it as soon as it made me lose 500 dollars), but now I think something else, and it is the wisest approach, taught to me by the investors.

The approach is as follows: a systems "works" until it doesn't exceed by x % (e.g. 20%) the previous maximum drawdown and you can stop trading it when it does (of course we should use all possible precautions in selecting the right system first). Before you start trading a system, you must have an account large enough to withstand its maximum drawdown (over the whole back-tested and forward-tested period) plus the mentioned x % of tolerance.

If this means that you cannot trade too many systems, and it seems like a disappointment (after having created good systems which you can't trade due to a small capital), you should not take risks and trade them anyway (like I did, and on top of it, I stopped trading them as soon as they lost once - precisely because my account was too small to trade them).

You should instead be happy with starting small, with small gains, and adopt the "cushion approach". You start with one system that can cause you 5000 dollars drawdown (past max dd plus tolerance). That means you're willing to lose 5000 dollars before you stop trusting that system. Then you can only get better in terms of risk and never risk more than that 5000 dollars. You do it like this: once you build up a profit ("profit cushion"), you increase the systems/contracts depending on how much their potential drawdown is covered by that initial 5000 dollars you were willing to lose PLUS the profit cushion. If you don't build up that profit, you don't increase the systems/contracts, but stay with your original system.

So for example now we have a combination of systems that we will trade until we lose 5000 dollars, at which point we will say "the systems failed". That 5000 is what we initially thought would be their drawdown. In reality I later found out it's much higher, because I had only used the forward-tested period and not the whole back-tested period (due to lack of data).

We will not scale up until a profit cushion will allow to trade more systems, which usually implicate a larger potential drawdown.

Regarding your fifth paragraph, I don't know what you are referring to. If you are referring to something I wrote recently, I am afraid you didn't read what I wrote carefully. And that, I do not forgive. But that aside, let me say that I swear on the souls of my grandchildren, that I will not be the one to break the peace that we have made here today.

 

[Adamus]

Re: more boredom

Unfortunately when I wrote that I was rushed because I was making breakfast on the stove for my kid and my girlfriend in a really badly thought out move had given her 5 dried apricots yesterday. That's enough to give me the squits and this kid is only 10% of my body weight. The result came this morning. Her nappy practically exploded. Anyway enough excuses.

I think we're in agreement over 75% of portfolio selection as I guess we should call it, but I don't think much of the cushion method you describe. It's too conservative.

I gave the impression I would just blow my account i.e. just trade it into the ground in an unplanned manner, but I won't, I have actually got a fairly robust money management plan based on fixed fractional lot size allocation and modified optimal f across the currently admittedly small portfolio.

Firstly though you omitted to say whether you decide your time period and dollar risk on the system beforehand. OK, you did say you decide the dollar risk, but it looks like you don't define a time period to adhere to your rules. If you have a time period, you should decide the length of it up front and make it part of the rules. However I wouldn't do that either, since hopefully both my account and my portfolio of systems will be growing at a rate that requires bi-monthly changes anyway.

Secondly this "cushion strategy" - it's not totally clear but do you treat your capital as a pool for all systems you have added? That is pretty much what my strategy is too and there's one issue with that - imagine you have added 3 systems, each having a max previous drawdown of 5000, you have a cushion of 15,000 (if there are no profits) so if two systems make profit but one system makes more than 5000 drawdown + x buffer, do you consider that system failed, or do you now have the luxury to allow it to lose more than 5000?

Here's your paragraph that I was referring when I said you appeared to pick and choose your systems to trade from all that you've written.

Fixed some stuff on the systems' charts. They just don't seem to ever take off. We choose a selection of 10, and they lose. We pick a better selection, and they still don't take off. Whatever their performance in the past year, it never gets replicated with the same speed. Each combination had returned 3000 per month, and when you trade it, it returns zero at best.

This is why I posted. You sounded like a newbie complaining that the market always reversed when they put a position on! But it sounds as if you are restricted in your choices by other factors.

It's bad timing that I started a discussion about this now, because I am going off line now until Monday, on holiday at the coast. Hopefully we can pick the discussion up again then.

Have a good weekend.

 

[Yamato]

I'll reply as I read.

I can't discuss the formulas you mention because they're too complex for me. But the cushion formula appeals to me in that it is very clear and simple, it makes sense to me, and the investors know what they're doing (they're not afraid of formulas like me), so it's not like it's one of my crappy formulas this time, which I use to avoid more complex formulas. This is a simple formula which happens to be used by professionals, so I will definitely keep it. And I don't see how it is too conservative (in the way that I described it), because otherwise you'd be saying "yes, this (profitable) system has lost 5000 before, but I'll trade it even if I am not prepared to lose that much". That implies that you're hoping to be lucky. And it can definitely work once, but in the long run, it will blow out your account. And it happened to me dozens of times, so that is why I am convinced by the "profit cushion" method - whether we intend it as profit you have to build up, or we intend it as money you're willing to lose (as I said, at the start, one has to risk money, not just profit).

Yes, the time period is clear to us: until we reach the next cushion level (unless we find out about any bugs or anything wrong with our past appraisal of past results by the systems). I have already set out a detailed plan which will plan the scaling up according to a cushion profit level of 10k, 15k, 25k, etcetera. That is if, as I hope, the investors haven't given up sooner, because that might be the case, given the poor performance of my systems so far.

Anyway, until they stick with the systems, to answer your question, the time period is that we stick with the present combination until we reach the next cushion level. Of course this process of scaling up should be as gradual as possible, but we can't be scaling up every day either.

Yes, we treat their capital as a "pool" for all systems, combined. It's like one big system, and its drawdown is the sum of the drawdowns of all the systems traded (across many different futures).

Good question. If one system fails more than it's failed before (plus the tolerance percentage) we disable it because it has failed because it was either overoptimized or it stopped working. We consider the systems as a whole in terms of potential drawdown, but individually in terms of maximum individual drawdown. In fact we do not even know if a system's worst performance took place when the biggest drawdown happened for the systems as a whole: that is not the case usually.

In fact, you made me think of something: it would be safer not to measure just the worst combined drawdown, but to add up each system's worst drawdown. This would definitely be the safest thing to do. Except that, if we did that, before the investors allow me to trade my systems, it would take decades (with the POSITIVE profit cushion method, which prescribes that we don't scale up until we have a profit cushion to cover the... now combined INDIVIDUAL drawdown rather than combined drawdown).

So we definitely cannot say that what we are doing is "conservative". In fact, it is optimistic and to the limit of being "reckless". What has to be considered on the other side is that if it happened once in ten years, it should not happen again tomorrow. However, if it does, or it happens even worse, then we are screwed. So what we are doing can be done, but only momentarily and in an attempt to grow your capital a little faster at the start. It should not be done indefinitely. Because sooner or later that past drawdown might be doubled, and if you kept on scaling up according to it, you'll blow out your account.

The safest cushion profit approach to adopt or rather let's call it "drawdown approach" is to add up all the systems' individual drawdowns. That way you can bank on the fact that they won't happen all at once. It would still be good practice to select the systems combination not based on the sum of their individual drawdowns, but on the overall combined drawdown. Yet you don't trade them unless you have enough capital to cover the sum of all individual drawdowns.

Yes, I see your quote now. The part that matters is "We choose a selection of 10, and they lose. We pick a better selection...". It is a good point, but we've only done it once and only on half of the systems, and, as explained above, we've done it because we realized that our past appraisal of past data was wrong, and this knowledge arose as I bought more data and did more tests. You can't expect us to say "yes, the previos tests and appraisals were wrong but since we committed to these systems we'll still trade them anyway".

 

[Yamato]

hadn't seen such trash in a long time: Eat Pray Love

http://www.letmewatchthis.com/watch-1261493-Eat-Pray-Love
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eat_Pray_Love
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0879870/

Usual ridiculous depiction of Italy by an American movie. Even the Italian actors are made to look ridiculous in this movie.



On the other hand, despite all the inaccuracies and stereotypes, there is still some poetry in this crappy movie. Still a very bad movie. I can't even watch all of it.

I guess we do the same ****ty job at representing Americans in our movies. We just add up a bunch of stereotypes.

But it's not inevitable. There's plenty of American movies about Italy which do a good job. No, not that many... I can't think of any specific title.

Anyway, final vote for this movie: 1 out of 10. Do not watch it. I am stopping it right here:



Only a famous actress like Julia Roberts can act in such trash and get away with it. Not because she's good but because people won't dare to say it's all worthless.

Sadly, most people won't even realize this is worthless. But there'll be some who will know it's worthless and won't say it.

Well, good: at least the tomatometer still makes sense and can tell good from bad: 38%

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/eat_pray_love/

 

[Yamato]

The journal may soon come to a close. Another few thousand posts and I might be gone. I would say that it's time to close it once I solve all my trading and financial problems - first of all my gambling addiction. Once I become entirely automated, and I quit my job, then I can quit writing this journal. And start doing more physical activities outdoors.

The day that I will only come here only to write about movies and such, and not about trading any more, if that day ever comes, I will be ready to quit the journal. By then there will probably be 6 thousand posts to read, since now I've already written 3438.

That day seems far but it is slowly getting closer, because I've already cut out, little by little, all the crap about my discretionary trading. It's been decreasing, and I haven't hosted any of my live sessions of compulsive gambling in a long time on this journal. Partly because they didn't happen and partly because it's not worth it to talk about it any more, as I've noticed that it doesn't help.

By then every reader of the journal will have been banned, because of some posts they have written. But they'll still be reading the journal.

It's really funny to hear Americans say (in that movie) that they gained "ten pounds" in Italy. If they're not getting fat in the States, with that food, it's impossible that they'll get fat in Italy.

Speaking of stereotypes, this guy has done some extensive work:
http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/AcceptableNationalityTargets

 

[Yamato]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2taZYNBefY

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concierto_de_Aranjuez

 

[Yamato]

damn vito... he's back

I thought he had stopped being a nuisance for me, but I was wrong. Or at least he has stopped being a "straightforward" nuisance. Now he's just a "sneaky" nuisance, like children can be.

He said to me recently "you consider me like a box that bothers you". Today I realized that I wish he was just a box.

I came this morning into the office and my scanner was turned upside down, and so was my keyboard. A few weeks before, repeatedly, a lot of envelopes were spread out on my table, which never happened before - in five years of work at this bank. Another day there was a paperclip on the cord of my monitor. Which never happened either. No permanent damage was ever done: but it was a nuisance, especially a psychological nuisance, knowing you can't rely on things to be the way you left them the day before.

Now... I am too much of a gentleman to accuse him, but I am almost certain it is him. Otherwise how come in three months he's been in my room, more things have gone wrong with my stuff than in 5 years. I've had stuff stolen before, but this is different. It's just annoying things, but nothing got stolen.

Tomorrow I might find a pushpin on my seat.

I had to take my scanner home (it's mine) and I said while I was wrapping it in paper "damn, this because I can't trust my colleagues". He pretended he was innocent, and came to me and said "oh, let me see that: how does it work...?", pretending it was the first time he saw it. So this tells even more clearly that this sly mother ****er was the idiot who had done such a stupid and annoying thing.

I wouldn't say this guy is evil, bad or mean. He did all these things to amuse himself by seeing my reaction. Something you could expect from a (stupid) 10 year old. I wonder how he graduated from college.

This guy is an idiot. He's not mean. But he's also dishonest, sneaky, sly and deceitful, so I definitely don't want to have to deal with this guy in the future. There's nothing you can do against someone like this. Yeah, sure, I can treat him like ****, but I can't stop him from doing this stuff.

Also, I cannot accuse him, ever. Because this could still be caused by my paranoid tendencies, and maybe it is indeed the maid, as he says each time (then why does the maid only flip my stuff and not everyone's?). I think it's him, though. But I won't accuse him, because I could be wrong and I don't want to risk this.

Strategy:

1) I won't accuse him because I might be wrong (5% probability), and it wouldn't be fair to do so. I won't accuse him because even if I am right, it won't improve things.

2) I will keep thinking it's him, and I'll stop complaining when I see stuff like that, when I come in the morning. He might realize (if it's him) that I know it's him. If he were to ask me if I think it's him (he does this kind of stuff), I would certainly tell him so. "Of course, nothing was ever wrong for 5 years, then you move into this room, and all sorts of crazy things start to happen".

3) I'll him where it hurts. If he asks me for help, I'll say no. And he'll wonder why today I am not helping him. And he'll know why it is. If he asks, I won't say anything, which will make me see the truth even more.

There's nothing else I can do, since he's an idiot, a stupid person, a fool. I just have to try to do what is likely to make him stop. If I played with him, becoming his playmate, it would make matters even worse. He has to consider me like a piece of furniture. I must do nothing out of the ordinary, amusing. I must not show any reaction when I see this stuff.

If one day I am really drunk, tired or pissed off, I could very well tell him what is the matter. Something like "you're an idiot".

Until today at the workplace I had to worry about thieves, but never about idiots doing just enough to bother me, and not even enough to damage my property. He's a kind idiot. This would be a good definition "good-hearted jackass". On the other hand, he might not damage my property only because he's an intern and it would be unwise to risk so much as an intern. Hopefully he won't get hired. And if he does, he'll be working in a different room than mine.

Whatever happens, as long as I live, I'll keep you updated, because he's still my enemy number 1 right now. Damn idiot: just spiting me to be amused by my reaction. Damn damn idiot. I know it's him. I wish he died. He said he'll go back to bari in the weekend. Yeah, here we have a long weekend for All Souls' Day. Let us pray for his death, so that I'll be able to commemorate him once I get back to work. Happy careless driving, Vito. I definitely will not be in touch with you, once you're moved out of my room. Dip****.

Ever since being at the bank, I've been used to getting along with adults. I never expected that I'd have to deal with a child again. I've never met any children at the workplace. I don't know to react. Can I kick him in the balls? Do I have to keep acting like an adult even though he acts as a child? Can I steal his property? I can't do any of these things. I can only act as an adult, and as a polite person. I don't have any weapons against a child.

On the other hand, understanding him is a weapon to defeating him. I could at least lessen the damage. For example, I could try not amuse him with my reactions. The problem is that he considers me like someone his age, and doesn't respect me as a consequence. Or maybe there's something else that I did, that doesn't make him respect me. Or maybe he respects me and I am blowing this out of proportion - it has often been the case. Or maybe he likes me and considers me family. I definitely want him dead.

Hmm, eureka.

Actually, I do know what is going on.

I have another friend like him, Daniel. The question here, and where knowing Dan helps me, is this: can a person like you and still, knowingly, do things to bother you? The answer is yes. I know for sure that Dan likes me, he keeps on inviting me to places, to his house in the mountains, to his home, everywhere... and yet I avoid him because he annoys me. He can't help it, he's hyperactive, he's got a thyroid problem, too, which probably causes it. Dan will do all these efforts to meet me, and find me annoyed by him (he knows he annoys me, because I often told him), and even refusing to meet him after he has come here and is ringing at my door - I often didn't open (and he still calls me). This guy considers me his best friend basically, and yet I avoid him because I find him annoying. A typical example, actually two:

1) we go to the restaurant, he asks me for the salt, and he'll take some food from my plate while I turn to give him the salt. After something like this, i might pour a glass of water into his dish, to punish him, but it's not enough to keep him from doing it again in the future.

2) I tell him not to touch me (my leg, my arm) when he talks to me, and then he'll keep touching me.

This is very clear. There's hyperactive people who really like someone and they'll still find ways to annoy them, on purpose, so they can start some physical fight, or an amusing situation - amusing only to hyperactive people.

Dan is definitely one of those people, and Vito is probably another one of these guys.

They love me, and I want them dead. I avoid them like the plague.

This is it - i'll face this mother ****er just as if I were dealing with my friend/enemy Dan. Avoid both like the plague.

 

[JRP2891]

This Vito episode which is quite outrageous, disrespectful, and psychological warfare effectively, reminds me of a similar situation which my friend had with a guy who was renting a room in his house.

My friend and I had been out for a few ales in the afternoon, we got back to my friend's house, walked up to the living room and the whole room had been re-arranged. This wasn't a spot of interior design or improved Feng Shui, it was intended head-**** territory. The sad son of a b1tch had turned the TV facing the wall, moved the sofa to a different place and put the goldfish bowl on the floor. Plain weird, and he wasn't even there to see the reaction. A very strange fellow.

Word of warning Travis...careful when accepting drinks off people like that, they've probably licked the rim of the glass.

 

[Yamato]

Yeah, I am not accepting anything from this guy anymore. He even volunteers to buy me sandwiches - even today he did. However I don't think he added any salt or spit in it - that's not in his style. I am serious: this guy will probably not do anything to hurt me, because, odd as it may seem (I hate him), he likes me. He'll do something to bother me and he'll even do something to get me to beat him up. He'd rather be beaten up by me than having to deal with a stiff person like me. Same with Dan.

The funny thing is that - despite the fact that I dislike them both - I will treat them more fairly and nicely than they will treat me. It's more convenient to deal with a gentleman who dislikes you than to have to deal with a jackass who likes you. The jackass who likes you will hurt you, because these guys are restless and they even hurt themselves. The gentleman who dislikes you will make sure he doesn't bring you any disadvantages by disliking you. Say I meet a dishonest cab driver - first I tell him to put the meter back to the right fare and then I even tip him, because I want to show him an example. I dislike the guy, but I treat him better than the average person treats him.

The jackass guy may like you, but even if he treats you better than average, his average treatment of people (including himself) is much lower, so you'll end up getting screwed.

How do you figure a guy like this? Totally stupid. Hyperactivity in his brain is driving him to do insane things. They can never learn to do things properly because years of hyperactivity have kept them from learning anything.

He's got electricity in his brain, driving him to hurt himself and others. Restless hyperactive mother****er. These ****ers are like this throughout their life. It doesn't matter what age.

Dan is like this, he was like this 10 years ago, and also 20 years ago. They stay like restless teenagers forever.

Both of these guys (Dan and Vito) can't sit still. He's always shaking his legs, getting up and going for a walk every 15 minutes.

Probably this morning he was there, wondering what the **** to do, and he thought "ah ah, let's flip his stuff upside down and see his reaction... that'll be fun".

I can't believe this guy will get hired. We're in a bank, we're not in the entertainment industry. This guy belongs in the jackass movies.

The problem is that he's contagious in some way, just like Dan. You can stay in the company of one of these people not be made nervous by them. He's making nervous. I can feel the pressure from his presence. It's hard to keep him quiet and still. I always feel like he's about to interrup with one of his stupid questions - now he stopped, but the memory of these 3 months makes me feel bothered, even just the memory.

This is the kind of people I am talking about. The Jackasses Dan and Vito. Imagine these people sitting in an office:

I do not want to be their jackass playmate.

We're all three hyperactive people, we share this. I produce a great quantity of quality stuff. They produce a great quantity of crap, useless stuff, damage. And I am not talking in their free time. I am talking Dan is unemployed because he can't hold any job, and Vito can't do anything without asking for my help. He's an enthusiastic idiot. He'll gladly do any work you give him, and do it very badly.

 

[Yamato]

changing avatar to vito's face

Yeah, I might as well do it. Since it will help me focus on the enemy to destroy. I need to focus on him as much as possible, so I can fight him better. So I have now changed my avatar from travis to vito. I found this image of him on the internet, on one of those web sites where you promote your career:


Naturally he's a brilliant person according to that page. What kind of person puts on his online resume a picture where he didn't shave? With sideburns on top of it. Only a person who is strong/stupid enough as not to fear any judgments, because he will overwhelm you with his personality when you'll meet him, and probably be fooled by his talk. That's how he's working his way into this bank - treating everyone like his buddy. Few people, besides me, aren't fooled by his bull**** talk.

According to his picture, I don't mean to be racist and judge people by their appearance, but the brain seems large enough to classify him as a homo, but do not be fooled by the wide forehead - it's only because he's lost some hair. In reality the brain is really small. He's one of the first homos to appear on earth, over 2 million years ago, homo habilis:

H. habilis's brain capacity of 363 and 600 cm³ was on average 50% larger than australopithecines, but considerably smaller than the 1350 to 1450 cm³ range of modern Homo sapiens.

He used to look like this, before he lost his hair:

Which could be my next avatar, in case he gets into that accident I wished upon him and we have to commemorate him. Yeah, because we want to remember him when he was young.

I'll keep this avatar until the day this enemy is gone from my life. Probably, according to my estimates, it will be another 3 months. He most likely will get hired, and, in 3 months, he might be moved out of my room. Hopefully he'll die before then. I am praying daily, if not hourly, for God to come and take him away. Yeah, I want this guy dead. And my only weapon is prayers, because I am too polite to do anything else.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_human_evolution
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prayer

Fake friend, a dishonest person, a compulsive, hyperactive son of a bitch.

I found another picture from facebook.

View attachment Snap1.bmp

Pretty scary. Here wikipedia tells me something more about this homo habilis:

Debates continue over whether H. habilis is a direct human ancestor...

But maybe Vito is a Sahelanthropus tchadensis, the "latest common ancestor", now extinct. So there's no explanation as to how he survived 7 million years. Maybe he was frozen or something like that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chimpanzee-human_last_common_ancestor

 

[Yamato]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gR4UlNoOrlc

 

[Yamato]

damn vito

He will pay dearly for having messed with my stuff. What will I exactly do to him? Nothing, because I am too nice. But he will not be my friend. Which still means nothing because I am nice to everyone. As I said, I am more equitable to my enemies than he is to his "friends". Not because I am good but because my education forces me to be like this. In reality, I wish I could hurt him as much as possible. But I can't steal his stuff, I can't treat him badly, I can't accuse him of anything if I am not sure. I can't do a lot of things because of how my parents brought me up.

However, I will do as many mean things as my upbringing allows me to: first and foremost I will not ever value him, and it will show in the way I look at him when we talk. Secondly, I will talk behind his back, as I've been doing - I am definitely capable of doing that. And I will say to others what I think of him, that "he's an idiot, at best". If they ever ask me, I will tell them NOT to hire him. And, a distant dream, I will have him killed - my upbringing allows that, as long as there's politeness. I mean, after all, we're not murderers, in spite of what this undertaker says. I'll give this to Clemenza. Oh, bleah... I just looked at my avatar, and my reaction is each time the same: I am filled with disgust and hate. But I'll have to keep it. Keep your friends close... but your enemies closer.

Oh, wait. I know what I'll do. I've got one thing that I can do, which is powerful. I will not help him. I don't have to necessarily say that I don't help him because I think he's the one who flipped my scanner. I can just say that I am busy or even in a bad mood, because someone is messing with my stuff, and so I don't help him. I wonder if he'll have the courage to say "why do I have to pay for it?". He won't say it because he's the one messing with my stuff. If anything else goes wrong with my things, for the whole day I won't help him. This much I can do. It's in my nature to help, but not if I am positive that the same person asking me for help is messing with my stuff.

 

[Yamato]

I am even wondering if I should stop being sincere with this idiot. After all, sincerity is a gift to people. If I stopped saying what's on my mind to him, he would have one less weapon to hurt me. I can speak but without saying what's on my mind, I can be evasive. It's not in my nature, but Vito doesn't even deserve my sincerity. He's a sneaky manipulator. This is the last act before full blown war: when I stop being sincere.

Latest strategy:

General:
1) No sincerity, evasive boring answers to his questions. Fake nice answers, too. Superficial nice.
2) Always agree, but cut short the conversation. Don't let him manipulate you into a discussion.

If he messed with my stuff:
1) No help for the whole day. No explanations, just "I'm busy now, maybe later" (then nothing for the whole day).
2) Do not let him buy you anything: sandwiches, drinks. Don't accept any chewing gums. Don't let the other roommate buy you food either, or it'll be too insulting.
3) Never tell him what you think, or that you think it was him to mess with your stuff. Don't show any reaction, anger or similar to finding out someone moved your stuff.

Basic assumptions underlying the attitude to keep:
We have established that he's an idiot. We've established he can lie, deceive and do damage. We still have not established that he means harm on purpose. He has caused disturbances, a lot, but no permanent damage to property yet. The objective of the strategy is to limit the damage done by Vito. We cannot turn an idiot who doesn't hate us into an enemy, if he's not.

He's an idiot, it would be best to avoid him but it's not possible. We have to limit damage, and this means also:
1) being pleasant when he's pleasant
2) ...

Basically we don't have to start a war - we have to limit the damage he can do. So, once again:
1) I don't trust him, so I won't let him buy me sandwiches.
2) He's obnoxious and annoying so I won't joke around with him, or he'll get into playing mode.

Most of all, there's a small risk that I'll write this journal from work and he'll get behind my shoulders and take a peak. It would not be wise to allow him to see that he's so much of a nuisance to me. He might tell other people and they might all laugh at me because of this. So, unfortunately I'll have to remove this avatar of the dick head.

Let's just place it here one last time to remember what we have to guard against:



Die, you mother ****er. Get into an accident on your way back from Bari.

And now I'll put my avatar back.

According this post:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/85510-my-journal-2-a-104.html#post1183828

The chimp showed up in my room on July 19th. This means his internship will last until January 19th. Less than 3 more months of this crap. Hopefully by then he'll be dead. Hopefully not hired. Hopefully sick at the hospital. Break his leg or something even more serious.

If all of the above should fail, and he's still alive, well, hired in January, then hopefully he'll be moved into another room.

Not that he hasn't improved lately, as I said. He has improved a lot: he talks almost zero, he closes the door after he leaves, he apologizes when he comes into the office and says ("I'll go out right away"). I've almost exaggerated in his training. It must have been a shock to him, because he's used to being a clown and now he has to behave like a monk.

So maybe I should accept some side-effects and be tolerant if he takes it out on my property when I am not there. Yeah... after all, I am at peace with him again. I suppose the efforts I asked of him (being a polite person) were so demanding that he had some side effects, such as hating me and taking it out on my property. After, if I disciplined him like a schoolboy, I also have to accept that he plays a schoolboy's spiteful tricks on me. Yeah. After I am getting away with very little. Considering the idiot he is. If we consider him as a 14 year old hyperactive impolite person, then I can be happy about what I got him to do. The problem is that he's many years older, he's at a bank. If he were a troubled teenager during his compulsory "study hall", and I were his teacher, trying to get him to do his homework, then everything would be normal, even damage to school property. But in this other setting, he stands out as an idiot.

I haven't solved anything actually. I am very frustrated about having a child as a roommate. About not being able to rely on things as I used to: leaving one thing and expecting it to be the same on the next day.

I just hope I will be able to resist and limit damage until this guy will be gone from my room. I rarely lose control but he's testing my nerves.

This journal has helped me a lot and will help me in the future.

I think I will need this journal until I'll be able to quit my job. Then I will probably still write on it not out of stress but out of boredom.

 

[Yamato]

This is good:
http://www.thatfilmwatchingsite.org/watch-532243-The-Social-Network

Wow, this is close to being a masterpiece. Very well made. Of course, it's also because it's a very powerful story. Just as it was:
http://www.letbobwatchthis.org/watch-2512-Pirates-of-Silicon-Valley

It reminds me a lot of that one as well.

 

[Yamato]

wisest words on vito

I think my wisest thoughts on vito, after all I've written about him, were:

...He has improved a lot: he talks almost zero, he closes the door after he leaves, he apologizes when he comes into the office and says ("I'll go out right away"). I've almost exaggerated in his training. It must have been a shock to him, because he's used to being a clown and now he has to behave like a monk.

So maybe I should accept some side-effects and be tolerant if he takes it out on my property when I am not there...

He remains an idiot, but I could be angry at him or I could learn to accept that I have to be in the same room with an idiot. He has made efforts: sure, he remains an unpleasant, unfair person. It's not normal for an intern to mess with employees. A lot of things that he does are childish. On the other hand, is it really worth it to obsess this much about him? I am turning this into my own problem, rather than letting it be his own problem. If he's an idiot, why do I have let his stupidity turn me into a psycho? Why can't I limit my reaction to the part where I deal with the actual damage caused by him? Why do I have to blow this out of proportion? Just like I do with the neighbors slamming their door... why do I have to think about it all day long?

This is where their problem ends and my problem begins. I can blame vito for flipping my scanner, I can blame him for interrupting me while I work, but I cannot blame him for putting me in a bad mood for 3 days. I can blame the neighbors for slamming their door, but I cannot blame them for putting me in a permanently bad mood. This is all part of my obsessive-compulsive and intolerant personality. I cannot fix everything, I cannot have everything under control. Probably Vito is reacting like this to my attempt to make him shut up and make him be quiet all day long. He's rebelling in a childish way. The more I restrain him when I am there, the more he takes it out on my property when I am not there.

I can't control him any more than I already am. I can't control the neighbors either. Unless I am willing to get dirty with all of them, which I am not.

It is therefore time for me to learn to live with the things I cannot change: the neighbors, the roommate, the relatives, the parents. It is time to exercise what most people already exercise by habit: tolerance.

It is time to stop some of the bad aspects of my being a control freak, which is so good for automated trading, because being a control freak makes me run things efficiently.

Yesterday I spoke to Daniel, my friend who is very much like Vito (hyperactive and all that). And I asked him for half an hour: I have this guy at the bank, who is just like you, why does he do this, and how do suggest to handle him? He said that flipping things is not that bad after all, and that most people would tolerate it. He said Vito won't go as far as doing damage to my property. He said we're incompatible and at the two extremes of the bell curve. He said other things I can't remember now.

He made me put this problem into a more balanced perspective. Of course we're both hoping that Vito dies or that somehow he'll disappear. Luckily Daniel didn't do any damage yesterday. I've let him into the house for the first time in a year, after a year ago, while we were having lunch (my treat, as usual), he asked me to pass the salt and he took food from my plate while I got up and got the salt for him (it was on another table). After that, I refused to meet him for about a year. And each time he called me I reminded him of that incident. This is the kind of stuff that bothers me, regardless of who does it. It's impolite, sneaky, unfair. You help someone, get the salt for them, and they steal food from you. You treat Vito to lunch on the first day, and he returns the favor by bothering you every day, and when you ask him to stop, he stops, but starts messing with your stuff to spite you or to see your reaction. There's only one way to deal with these people: stay away from them.

Oh yeah: this is what Daniel said, which was very important. A quiet polite person cannot do anything to a rude obnoxious guy. Because what he does he do to bother the other guy? Scream, talk...? He can just be quiet, because he's quiet. The other guy, on the other hand, just by being himself - hyperactive and obnoxious - bothers you. So you have no weapons. I must make sure that I get some weapons and learn to do some things that annoy Vito and that I do them when he annoys me. I think if I got him to change it was because I did some things that he didn't like:

1) I did not value him and regarded him "as an object that bothers you" (as he said).

2) He can tell I do not value him by the way I looked at him (even now he says: "i am leaving right away", he apologizes when he sneezes... he mistook my request for regular politeness for total intolerance). He changed to get me to like him. He could not change as far as stopping his childish spiteful tricks.

3) I speak badly of him, behind his back and in front of him: if they ask me, the least I say is "he's continuously interrupting me". When he was showing off his qualities telling me "I am very versatile..." (which says a lot about how he feels), I told him "yes, I am obsessive" and "you're balanced, so you do everything superficially". I could tell he resented that, but it all started from him telling me that I am unbalanced and obsessive. I asked for my right to work in peace to be respected.

So basically this Vito is bothered by the fact that I don't value him and that I talk behind his back. It bothers him. Also, if I don't joke around with him, it bothers him. It bothers him that I am serious.

The problem is that I cannot exaggerate with doing the things he does not like, because if he has shown improvements (which he definitely did), I must reward them. So I must treat him as well as possible, to reward the improvements, and at the same time I must try to target his spiteful tricks so that he can tell that

1) I know it's him
2) It's not convenient for him to do them

There's only one way. I will let it come up, and somehow tell him that if anything happens to my stuff it can only be him, because it only happens since he's around and it never happened before. I will start this in the usual way. First I will tell others, and then I will let him know, especially if he asks me.

I am not forgiving him. I am just going to try to defend myself from him as well as I can:

He's still my enemy number one, and I will show all my dislike for him. I am not going to pretend he's my friend. I am not going to be fooled like everyone else into thinking that he's my friend. Ever since day one, he's tried to make friends with the whole bank, just like the politician he is. You can't fool everyone, Vito. You're worthless and you're not fooling me.

I will keep studying you and I will answer with more manipulation to your manipulation. For sure if you touch any of my stuff, I won't help you for the entire day. And I won't answer any of your stupid questions. You wise-ass, I am not falling for that stuff any more. I am not even going to pretend that I think it's the cleaning lady who flipped my scanner any more. And I hope your ugly head some how will explode in the meanwhile.

As long as I will perceive your face as repugnant and repulsive, which I do, now more than ever, I will be safe. The problem will arise if I ever let you fool me into thinking that you're "my friend", "like me", "love me", "care for me", "are attached to me", as you often say, you asshole. If you did, you wouldn't mess with my stuff. So, on top of being obnoxious, you're also a liar and an unreliable person. I don't trust you at all, I don't value you, and I am repulsed by you.

You're a very ugly and disgusting person: physically, mentally, morally.



Even by just seeing your picture, I am repulsed by you, I wish you death and I wish you suffering.

When I showed up on Friday and found the scanner upside down, I asked you what happened. And you replied as if you already knew, showing no curiosity, asking no questions. That was a cue. Then when I confronted you with the facts, you said "yeah, it must have been the cleaning lady". Not once in 5 years the cleaning ladies did anything like that. In the last two months, they've been acting crazy: another hint that it was you. Third hint is that you said it, and you seemed to find it normal for a cleaning lady to have to do something so absurd to clean your table. You offered as reasonable such an unreasonable explanation. Fourth hint: when I said that I'd have to take the scanner home because my colleagues could not be trusted, you came and looked at the scanner, pretending it was the first time you were seeing it, you wiseass. Why would you do something like that? You could have seen it for months, but never did. You were trying to pretend you had never noticed it - to fool me. You disgust me. I am done with you. Just give me another opportunity and I will stop helping you altogether, and even stop saying hi and goodbye.



I will make you regret being such a wiseass. I promise I will do my best. For now I wish you death, as usual. If anything happens to my stuff again, I promise I won't help you for the entire day. I don't care if it's you or whoever it is - one of these things that have been done to my stuff has been done by you, so you'll have to pay for the previous deeds.

Oh, and one more thing: as soon as it comes up, and we have a moment alone, I will blatantly tell my other roommate who is the person in charge for him, and who values me, that I think he's an idiot and I really hope they don't hire him. And, whoever asks me about him, I'll tell them that I think he's an idiot. Even if they don't ask me, I'll bring it up. I am going to use whatever positive reputation I have to destroy his reputation as much as possible. This is what you get for being such an unfair person: I am now your sworn enemy.

At this point, I don't even care if you ever do it again or not. You're going to pay for what you've done until now. Never, in the last 5 years, a colleague has bothered me as much as you have. And on top of it you're not even a colleague yet. You're going to pay for this.

 

[Yamato]

creating the "vito systems"

Yeah, what the hell... I might as well do it. Instead of wasting my time obsessing about vito, I might as well spend it creating more systems, the "tenth wave vito systems", that will help me get out of the bank earlier.

I am going to create more systems, so I can both forget my obsessions and enemies, and get away from them faster. This way I will solve the problem twice.

 

[Yamato]

the vito systems: brainstorming

The vito systems will have to be like vito in some way, because this will give me a fresh approach, since vito is not like me.

They will have to be systems that have either one or more of these characteristics:

1) hyperactive: trading a lot, or checking conditions all the time (every 15 minutes).
2) are systems that could be devised by an idiot like vito: I need to pretend I am vito and come up with the code that he would come up with.
3) are ugly, somehow the systems will have to be ugly
4) they will have to be very social
5) superficial
6) kissing up to the markets
7) manipulative systems
8) unfair
9) impolite
10) dishonest
11) childish

I must focus intensely on this picture and get inspired to create systems that will ensure I can quit my job and get away from this guy:

I will be encouraged to work harder by this picture where it looks like this moron is chasing me with his car, and it looks like he's saying "I am going to get you".

Ok, actually it's the 11th wave, because CL_ID_3 was the tenth wave. It's going to be this category of systems: "11 (201011)". November 2010. It will be tested on all these futures:

EUR
GBP
ES
YM
GBL
CL
GC
JPY
ZN
AUD
CAD
CHF
NG

It will have an out-sample from January 2006 to now for all but the GBL, whose out-sample will be from January 2008 till now.

Ok, so. We listed a number of characteristics of these systems, but some are useless, because a system can't be "ugly". So let's focus on the characteristics that could be shared by Vito and the Vito systems:

1) hyperactive: trading a lot, or checking conditions all the time (every 15 minutes).
2) are systems that could be devised by an idiot like vito: I need to pretend I am vito and come up with the code that he would come up with.
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
10)
11) childish

Basically I have to pretend I am a hyperactive child and come up with a system. Or I have to pretend that the system is a hyperactive child.

First thing to do, set up a chart on tradestation. Which future? The euro.

Ok, by my standards, a hyperactive childish system is a system that trades every single day, no matter what.

We must find a system that does just that.

But if we do this, there can be no repeated checking of conditions, because it has to trade at all costs. And there can be no range filters (which cause back vs forward matching problems anyway). It HAS to trade every day. We just have to decide when and in what direction. We will call this new category of systems the "hyperactive" systems.

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/hyperactive

–adjective
1. unusually or abnormally active: a company's hyperactive growth; the child's hyperactive imagination.
2. (of children) displaying exaggerated physical activity sometimes associated with neurologic or psychologic causes.
3. hyperkinetic.

To get closer to what I'll create, I'll now look, among the existing systems, which systems trade the most and copy their code, which I cannot show you here, for I am afraid that my system will be used by others and will cease to work.

My repulsion for vito will propel me to create more systems and hopefully make more money and gain freedom from him. It's either I create more systems or it's this guy:

Ok, I've got these 3 systems that trade a lot but still not every day:
1) ZN_ON
2) JPY_ON
3) GBL_ID
4) GBP_ID_2

Let's study the common features of their code: the one that trades the most goes both long and short, so that obviously is a must for a hyperactive system. No range filter...

Ok, so. Here's the prototype of my hyperactive system:

{****************** entry ***************************}
If time = x and marketposition = 0 and c < AverageFC(c, x) Then Buy("Long") This Bar;
If time = x and marketposition = 0 and c > AverageFC(c, x) Then Sell("Short") This Bar;

{****************** exit ***************************}
If time = x Then ExitLong("time X Long") This Bar;
If time = x Then ExitShort("time X Short") This Bar;

The "more than" and "less than" sign can be reversed.

Now, with such a vito system ("vito" from here on will be used as a synonym for "simple and hyperactive") i can run wild optimizations on the hours and the averages. If I'll come up with anything good, that will work on the currencies as well, then I'll know that the code is right. This is indeed a stupid and hyperactive system, just like vito.

Second version of the code, with the optimization ready to be run:

Inputs: test(0), test2(0), test3(0);

{****************** entry ***************************}
If time = test and marketposition = 0 and c < AverageFC(c, 21) Then Buy("Long") This Bar;
If time = test and marketposition = 0 and c > AverageFC(c, 21) Then Sell("Short") This Bar;

{****************** exit ***************************}
If time = test2 Then ExitLong("time X Long") This Bar;
If time = test2 Then ExitShort("time X Short") This Bar;

I picked a value of 21 periods of 15 minutes (that's the timeframe I am using for my data), because that's always a good average to detect where the markets have been going. But now that I think of it, I will pick a value that is the average of all the values used for all my systems.

Done all the calculations: that value is 23.

Wow. I just thought of a great great idea. The next time I show up at work and find any of my stuff messed with, I wil take his bag and throw it out the window. I don't care if I get fired. There's a limit to accepting mobbing by a goddamn intern. Everyone knows what a nice guy I am and he will have a hard time explaining why I did this or complaining about it to anyone. He'll also have to find a way to get his bag back (not easy). If it ever happens again it will really be the last straw, and there will be a physical reaction towards him or his stuff - so much better towards his stuff. I am just going to get up, pick up his bag, and throw it out the window.

Ok, before doing anything so drastic, i just called my boss, and told him about it. I said: look, I want to warn you that I am having problems with Vito, he's done so and so, and if it happens again I am going to throw his bag out the window". He said we'll talk with the other roommate (she's his direct boss), next week and see what can be done. I want everyone to be warned that I am at the end of my tolerance for this jerk. Everyone has to know that I am about to lose my temper.

I've spoken to my aunt, to a cousin and another friend. Many different opinions. What really stuck to my mind is my aunt: she says I have to forget about throwing his bag out of the window and instead say clearly to my boss or his boss "get this idiot out of my room", "levatemi questo deficiente dalla stanza".

She's right. I have to keep behaving as an adult. I can't get on the same level as him. I've been an adult for years, I am valued for that, and I should take advantage of it, instead of throwing it all away. I can have the bosses remove him, instead of trying to deal with him directly. It's better if instead of doing anything violent I go straight to the management and get him in trouble. More effective, less risks, less tiring even. It might even cost him the job.

Ok, I just called my other roommate. She said to not worry that she'll talk to him and say: if you know who it is, then tell them to stop. If it's you, stop immediately. Otherwise one of us three has to leave the room. She's practically his boss and she fully realized and sympathised with me about this problem and this concern, even though she said that it seemed very strange to her that it could be him. I told her "who else could it be? None of this stuff ever happened before he came into the room". Now I've done all I could do: I've alerted my boss, alerted his boss... even told her that if anything happens to my stuff next Tuesday I will throw his bag out of the window. Everything is perfect now. I can do anything I want, I have told everyone about the problem... I don't have to worry about anything any more. She said she'll talk to him. So basically by making this phone call, I've declared war on vito. It couldn't be any other way. A little harassment I can take. A lot of harassment, I either get violent, hit back or talk to the management. Vito has gone beyond the limit, so I had to react in one of these ways. I can't just keep everything inside.

 

[Yamato]

Anyway, let's take a small break from my obsession.

I was here:

Inputs: test(0), test2(0), test3(0);
{****************** entry ***************************}
If time = test and marketposition = 0 and c < AverageFC(c, 23) Then Buy("Long") This Bar;
If time = test and marketposition = 0 and c > AverageFC(c, 23) Then Sell("Short") This Bar;
{****************** exit ***************************}
If time = test2 Then ExitLong("time X Long") This Bar;
If time = test2 Then ExitShort("time X Short") This Bar;

Running an optimization for test and tests values, one hour apart, 500 to 1500 for test and 700 to 1700 for test2.

Nothing good came out: poor % of wins, poor profit factor.



I have to reverse the "less than" and "more than" parameter and run the optimization again. Now it will be a pro-trend vito system.



Better.

For a second I thought I had it:

Inputs: test(0), test2(0), test3(0);

{****************** entry ***************************}
If time = 1000 and marketposition = 0 and c > AverageFC(c, 31) and DayOfWeekFix(Date) = 2 Then Buy("Long") This Bar;
If time = 1000 and marketposition = 0 and c < AverageFC(c, 31) and DayOfWeekFix(Date) = 5 Then Sell("Short") This Bar;

{****************** exit ***************************}
If time = 300 Then ExitLong("time X Long") This Bar;
If time = 300 Then ExitShort("time X Short") This Bar;

but then I checked it on the out-sample and it doesn't work.

Forget vito systems then. I need to work on known strategies and test those. I've exhausted my work in terms of vito: tested the systems, called the people... I've tried my best to get rid of him. Now whatever happens happens. I can't do any more about him.

I will pick up my work from here:
The encyclopedia of trading strategies By Jeffrey Owen Katz, Donna L. McCormick

It's pretty much everything I need, but I must not get involved into the book, must skim through it and get what I need.

Here's some ideas from that book that I'm already familiar with:
...

Wait, first I downloaded even more book of that kind. Here's what I've got:

1) QUANTITATIVE TRADING STRATEGIES
Seems right on target even though a bit verbose (I thank my mom and all that crap).

2) The Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies
Right on target, mentioned it earlier.

3) All the other ebooks downloaded were irrelevant so I deleted them.

In my next post I will skim through the books and list the strategies they talk about. There's no question that I won't read those two books from start to end.