Markets and mysticysm

[andycan]

Hi Andy. Nice to see you to.
The Crystalinks site says this; "The universe, our reality, is created by thought consciousness which manifests in physical reality through a geometric blueprint that we call Sacred Geometry. It repeats in cycles giving the illusion of linear time so we can experience emotions"

yes this is a spiritual interpretation and very nicely said
but markets are real and for a real problem one has to apply real solutions

 

[alexander]

Mostly. I'd add the order book for a day trader. It is the only visible aspect of supply side of the supply/demand pair.

I agree. The order book is where price and volume show with some depth for day traders. But one must be very careful analyzing it and drawing conclusions on the fly.

Alex

 

[grantx]

Patrik,

The figures for the DOW do not demonstrate ‘mysticism’. It would be mysterious if certain numbers didn’t appear given the range of numbers emerging yearly, monthly, daily, intra-day from thousands of instruments.

The questions are: where/what is the mysticism; why do the figures appear at certain times but not others?

“The Crystalinks site says this..." Perhaps you could provide a justification for wild these assertions.

Grant.

 

[Patrik]

Patrik,

The figures for the DOW do not demonstrate ‘mysticism’. It would be mysterious if certain numbers didn’t appear given the range of numbers emerging yearly, monthly, daily, intra-day from thousands of instruments.

The questions are: where/what is the mysticism; why do the figures appear at certain times but not others?

“The Crystalinks site says this..." Perhaps you could provide a justification for wild these assertions.

Grant.

Hi Grant,
Well to me it is very clear that certain numbers comes back again and again. But also that moves close to each other often are closely related. This happens both in price and time. Time is more important perhaps.

Have no idea if the website is correct or not but i believe so

 

[Profitaker]

Like everything in life, there are degrees, in ascending rafts of awareness.

For example:~

There are those who do not work at all or do not think at all.

There are those who strictly work according to the ideas of others.

Then there are those one rung above who strictly work and think according to the ideas of others.

Then there are those who also work and think and incorporate their own ideas.

Then there are those who work and think exclusively according to their own ideas.

Then there are those who work and think according to their own ideas and incorporate others.

Then there are those who cause others to work and think according to their own ideas.

Then there are those who think and magical things happen.

Then there are those who just "are".

Then there are those that can't be bothered to put in the study to make a success of themselves, but find it much easier to ridicule the knowledgeable, in the hope of fleecing the gullible

 

[Paul71]

Then there are those that can't be bothered to put in the study to make a success of themselves, but find it much easier to ridicule the knowledgeable, in the hope of fleecing the gullible

People being fleeced, surely not...

Some people just 'scream', conman at you.

:cheesy:

 

[SOCRATES]

Then there are those that can't be bothered to put in the study to make a success of themselves, but find it much easier to ridicule the knowledgeable, in the hope of fleecing the gullible

He almost got it right (talking about himself and his cronies of course) and I quote
" in the hope of misleading the gullible"....LOL.

 

[SOCRATES]

People being fleeced, surely not...

Some people just 'scream', conman at you.

:cheesy:

I don't scream at anybody, neither do I impersonate beautiful happily married Welsh actresses.

 

[jacinto]

mmmmm.....thought this thread was about markets and mysticysm

but all of a sudden it seems to be about the search of the mystical flying pie

can we carry on please

 

[sizzler944]

Candlesticks and all

Socrates, Barjon, dphoenix et al

Today was one to make serious money on the markets. But lately, i've been sitting back after work watching the DOW.

For the last few days I've read the candlestick threads and part of from the basement (reminds me of my 2 years meditating 6 days a week and it is about being but thats another story). I sat and watched for intent using volume, a long moving average (for trend) and the line followed by 1 minute candlesticks. I saw a group or person drive down the price against what seemed to be some resistence but may have been others trying to buy the dip. Once established at 13300 the price drifted up and then was driven to get as close as possible to the opening.

For the first time I wasn't lost. I've been experimenting with indicators but found them unreliable and confusing. They are just formulae and can't describe such complexity. But I did notice that others are using them. I put on bollinger lines for a bit and saw the followers moves.

I wanted to use just the line but my smallest time frame is one minute and I found the one minute candlesticks gave a good indication of range and movement within the minute provided I watched constantly to see the candlestick forming and the movement continuing in to the next candlestick.

So who are these players moving the market and is the upcoming fed announcement a genuine concern or an excuse to make movement. Maybe such thoughts are just a diversion.

I post this to thank all you lads who've taken time to prod people like me along. I've been a total incompetent having lost my very modest pot already. Nevertheless the adventure goes on and maybe one day I'll get that cutter and roam the world trading to survive.

All comments gratefully accepted.

 

[Trdr]

Hamlet: "There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio [insert name],
Than are dreamt of in your philosophy."

Hamlet. Act i. Sc. 5 by William Shakespeare (1564–1616)

 

[Patrik]

yes this is a spiritual interpretation and very nicely said
but markets are real and for a real problem one has to apply real solutions

Sure but you talked about what binds us in the universe. In your posts you said it like i knew and hide it. Are you talking about the cube? But do markets always follows it? There are Phi related numbers as well.

Or are you talking about how to apply them in degrees and waves?

I was discussing if there is a connection between markets and Mysticism because that is the topic. Not trading strategies because i have never been able to predict something with it within abc, 5 wave patterns or any other lengths.


But perhaps someone can and it would be great to see some forecasts. Should add that i believe it is possible to forecast. Have seen some people doing that and it´s probably not a coincidence. Have no idea how to or how reliable it is though.

 

[alexander]

But perhaps someone can and it would be great to see some forecasts. Should add that i believe it is possible to forecast. Have seen some people doing that and it´s probably not a coincidence. Have no idea how to or how reliable it is though.

Forecasting is the process by means of which the law of large numbers and reversion to the mean are demonstrated beyond any doubt.

Alex

 

[grantx]

Alex,

“Forecasting is the process by means of which the law of large numbers and reversion to the mean are demonstrated”.

My level of mathematics leaves a lot to be desired, so (sadly) I looked for Law of large numbers on Wikipedia:

“LLN says that as the number of independent repetitions of the experiment grows, the average of the observed outcomes approaches the average of all possible outcomes.” It cites as an example a six-sided dice.

I read only the first few paragraphs so my questions may have been addressed.

A dice has a finite number of outcomes; a stockmarket or company share doesn’t – price can range from zero to infinity, ie all possible outcomes. Therefore, to talk of mean-reversion is almost meaningless insofar as the average is always theoretically between zero and infinity; and when does a number reach infinity, allowing the identification of its mean?

Or is it the case that mean-reversion is actually applied – in the context of financial markets - to fixed time periods, thus avoiding what I see as an objection?

Grant.

 

[Rhody Trader]

A dice has a finite number of outcomes; a stockmarket or company share doesn’t – price can range from zero to infinity, ie all possible outcomes. Therefore, to talk of mean-reversion is almost meaningless insofar as the average is always theoretically between zero and infinity; and when does a number reach infinity, allowing the identification of its mean?

Or is it the case that mean-reversion is actually applied – in the context of financial markets - to fixed time periods, thus avoiding what I see as an objection?

While you can indeed say that the price of a financial instrument has a theoretically infinite scope, the LLN would be more appropriately related to price movements, and more specifically period returns, which tend to cluster around zero. This is not technically the bell shaped curve of the normal distribution, because big changes tend to happen more frequently than would be suggested, but it isn't too far off.

 

[andycan]

well here is a thought
if markets are random as many believe here then forcasting or predicting is nothing more than working within the parameters of a system of approaches which offer nothing more than guesstimates
but now if makets are predictable then forcasting is nothing more than an exercise in timing to enter and exit at the correct point

 

[blackcab]

well here is a thought
if markets are random as many believe here then forcasting or predicting is nothing more than working within the parameters of a system of approaches which offer nothing more than guesstimates
but now if makets are predictable then forcasting is nothing more than an exercise in timing to enter and exit at the correct point

I suggest that markets are somewhere between completely random and completely predictable. That statement says almost nothing of value, yet it nullifies 90% of the discussion on trading bulletin boards IMHO. Strange, that.

 

[grantx]

Rhody,

I had to read your reply quite a few times before I could comprehend what you were saying. I think you broadly supported what I said. If that’s wrong, blame my Arts background.

This is Taleb’s favourite topic, isn’t it?

Thank you for the reply.

Andy,

I reckon your spot-on on both counts. One could “guesstimate” parameters statistically (possibly very accurately) but I suspect it would be the timing which will be the killer, eg index up 200 points within two months. End of first month, down 100 points, end of second month up 300 points (from previous month). Net equals up 200 points as predicted. Problem is, does one have the nerve, deep pockets and conviction to sustain an (interim) 100 point loss?

If markets were predictable, there would be no market (everyone would be on the same side). Or perhaps only a few can predict the market.

Grant.

 

[Paul71]

I suggest that markets are somewhere between completely random and completely predictable. That statement says almost nothing of value, yet it nullifies 90% of the discussion on trading bulletin boards IMHO. Strange, that.

Hi BC.

Maybe the markets are predictably random and randomly predictable.

 

[andycan]

I suggest that markets are somewhere between completely random and completely predictable. That statement says almost nothing of value, yet it nullifies 90% of the discussion on trading bulletin boards IMHO. Strange, that.

naturally that would be your opinion as its the majority thought
the markets are not random they are structured in such a way as to appear random
my statement was expressing a point as you see it and the final point was as i see it do you see now