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Short Gold on hourly pin (confluence with S/R zone).

Entered short 822 with a stop of 825.6. 36 pips risk. Target down at 818 or lower - see how it goes - will be out MOC though.

2 hours later, nothing happening, so covered for the spread. -5. 3 wins, 1 loss. Friday evening, no volume, not holding over weekend. Next week should be interesting, and the alert service is holding up well.

Have a good weekend all.
 
Usdchf

Catching a falling knife? Should we risk 170 to find out?

It is meaningless to zoom the chart further out - there isn't support here in a decade, and we are below even that.
 

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Position update

Still holding two positions:

Eur/Gbp +180 pips

December Wheat was closed for +35 (£175) and the position was rolled over to the March contract which is now +18.

There are lots of pins across many markets at the end of this week. We'll have a look at some of them over the weekend.

Hope everyone had a good week :)
 
Yes it was a good week. NIce up and then down moves on cable - tuesday and friday.

TD, thanks a lot for the video. Thanks to you, I am beginning to see how fibs can be used with supp/res - indeed to complement it.
In fact, with oscillator divergences, the confluence of factors gives many trades excellent r:r.

Your trade on aud/cad on 29/10 is such an example - altho I would have just traded the daily chart on this one and stayed firmly short at your entry level.

You mentioned the 23.6% level is not important to you - why ?

Want to leave you with something - if this is the first time you have quit working to trade ( or even if its not) - do not put too much pressure on yourself. You might well start out with a sequence of 10 losing trades, unlikely as it is. AS you know, the wins will come. Pressure to succeed at the start can put you in a negative frame of mind.

Just relax and do what you do best.

I join everyone else in wishing you the very best of luck.:)

CT
 
Bearish EURUSD Daily Pin

I'm reluctant to try and pick a top in the EUR/USD - no matter what Trichet may be saying.

However, this looks like a fairly good signal. Perhaps a conservative target of the uptrendline may be in order, which gives a R:R of 1. I'm not fond of such wide stops however - 200 points!

TD - what do you think?
 

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GBPJPY Daily Pin

Again, I'm quite shy of top / bottom fishing. However, this pin appears to have reversed from a strong S/R point - the bottom of the February lows, and a key S/R in August. Price has not closed below 221Y in some time. This is certainly a trade I'm interested in, although once again the stop is very wide. This is where the hourly will come in useful - if I can get a lower risk hourly entry long which is not tested during the day and the day has a high of > 224Y I will feel better about holding the position long with a stop at the low of the hourly pin I entered on, and a target of ~230Y.

I'd be lying if I said that the massive H&S which has formed this year and suggests a target of 200Y doesn't concern me here, especially with such a wide stop. My only chance at this trade will be if an hourly pin transpires, as I won't risk 400 pins on this.

I'm looking at USDJPY (which I'm not buying) and EURJPY (which has a smaller stop and more S/R confluence) as alternatives. Given that I'd rather avoid buying USD, perhaps I'll end up with a EURJPY position - it will all depend if I get an hourly trade away on either which then validates the daily pin....

Is the H1 a "V" exhaustion?
 

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Again, I'm quite shy of top / bottom fishing. However, this pin appears to have reversed from a strong S/R point - the bottom of the February lows, and a key S/R in August.

I'm looking at USDJPY (which I'm not buying) and EURJPY (which has a smaller stop and more S/R confluence) as alternatives. Given that I'd rather avoid buying USD, perhaps I'll end up with a EURJPY position - it will all depend if I get an hourly trade away on either which then validates the daily pin....

Lurker,

That is not a pin bar on your Gbp/Jpy chart. The body is a little too far from the top of the range. This is the same case on Eur/Jpy too. I personally would not trade either of these.

The best looking pin of the three you mention is actually the Usd/Jpy based on the bar ITSELF.

Whether anyone wants to fade the trend and buy dollars right now is another question but is worth noting that market turns often come when sentiment is at its strongest.

At a time when supermodels are refusing to be paid in dollars and rappers are replacing dollars with Euros in their videos (and news wires like Bloomberg and the BBC are making everyone aware of it) it would seem that bearish sentiment is high. We all know the story of Joseph Kennedy and the shoe-shine boy (although of course, the situation was inverted then)

I'm certainly not going to call a bottom here, or anywhere else for that matter, but it is certainly something worth thinking about.
 
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The pins on Usd/Chf and Eur/Usd daily TF would require large stops.

I also do not like the way that the high and the lows of the respective pins managed to violate the previous days high and lows and then failed to close above and below them.

I will consider the intraday action on these pairs.

Eur/Usd presents a particularly interesting situation because of the minor S/R pivot that has developed. (See chart)
 

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TD, have just been through the whole thread this week and just wanted to add my thanks for sharing your methods. I'm now scanning some daily and weekly charts for potential setups for next week. :cool: So far have noticed
Weekly FTSE long 6331

Good spot Achilles.

Again, I think I would add this to my portfolio and look for price action on the daily and intra-day (1 hr) timeframe.
 
eminies

hello--interested in s & p emini contracts. right now my style is short trading usually for 2--7 minutes, taking 2.25 points per trade, two--three trades a day.

john:cool:
 
TD, I was wondering how many pin setups you usually take per week, from the hourly alone? I think you said you watch around 80 markets, it would also be interesting to hear how many you pass on.

I'm doing some backtesting and have a question about the placement of the pin nose. Let's say there is an obvious res at 100 for a market, do you prefer the pin bottom to hit that level *exactly* or would you rather see a break of it and close above? Fakeouts vs strong res basicly. I assume both are ok as you've previously mentioned to look at levels as areas.

I've attached the example that got me thinking although it's not a great example of the above. Personally I think it looked really interesting and would be interesting to hear any comments, or another way I could've played it.

2 bar fakeout to the upside, then pin going down below the most recent range showing the true break direction. Thick line is from a weekly pivot line, thin blue lines are my target1 and target2. In my testing I would've gotten stopped out at t1 after price retraced back down. Eventually price went far above my t2.

This chart also raises another question - my entry is right at the weekly pivot line, which has also been getting some hammering. Price has hovered around this level for a while. Woud you say its value as res has gotten less as it has already been tested for a long time? I'm thinking a bit like daily pivots, the longer/more often it gets tested the lesser chance of price bouncing off it. At least that's what I've found to be true on other markets. And by daily pivots I mean the precalculated version, not what TD is teaching with pivot lines. I guess this question is related to the fakout vs strong res question, as it might look like on a higher timeframe. hmm..

Thanks for taking time to read my ramblings, and for keeping this thread going. I hope I'm making sense.

[edit] My pin bar here might be touching on what's allowed to be called a pin. Am I right in thinking a higher close would've been prefered or is it not a problem?
 

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TD, I was wondering how many pin setups you usually take per week, from the hourly alone? I think you said you watch around 80 markets, it would also be interesting to hear how many you pass on.

This is very difficult to answer because it varies massively.

I pass on many more than I take.

I'm doing some backtesting and have a question about the placement of the pin nose. Let's say there is an obvious res at 100 for a market, do you prefer the pin bottom to hit that level *exactly* or would you rather see a break of it and close above? Fakeouts vs strong res basicly. I assume both are ok as you've previously mentioned to look at levels as areas.

There is no doubt about it - I prefer it hit the level I have drawn *exactly*.

As you have pointed out, sometimes (but not always) the levels are more like ZONES.

In this case, it is OK to trade a fake out.


This chart also raises another question - my entry is right at the weekly pivot line, which has also been getting some hammering. Price has hovered around this level for a while. Woud you say its value as res has gotten less as it has already been tested for a long time?

As a general rule, if it has been tested multiple times, I am very wary of trading it.

It is my feeling that if the market tests a support or a resistance multiple times, it wants to go through it.

I'm thinking a bit like daily pivots, the longer/more often it gets tested the lesser chance of price bouncing off it. At least that's what I've found to be true on other markets. And by daily pivots I mean the precalculated version, not what TD is teaching with pivot lines. I guess this question is related to the fakout vs strong res question, as it might look like on a higher timeframe. hmm..

I don't use calculated pivots so I can't advise in this respect.

My pin bar here might be touching on what's allowed to be called a pin. Am I right in thinking a higher close would've been prefered or is it not a problem?

It's not a problem in this case. This is a good looking pin.
 
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eurusd pin for the comingweek

Hi TD,

As you pointed on EURUSD pinbar has a wide stop (on look at chart approx 150-180pips). On your approach, as you said you will look for intraday / hourly setup. Pls let us know when you take that pair and your approach, so that it could help us to understand on live call.

Fxbee
 
Hi TD,

As you pointed on EURUSD pinbar has a wide stop (on look at chart approx 150-180pips). On your approach, as you said you will look for intraday / hourly setup. Pls let us know when you take that pair and your approach, so that it could help us to understand on live call.

Fxbee

Fxbee, I'm afraid I don't want to make any more live calls based on the hourly TF. I made one on Aud/Cad when I started this thread and have, over the course of other posts, tried to explain how I operate on this lower TF.

This TF requires faster reactions and I don't have the time while concentrating on a position to start posting. A simple post with entry and exit is not too hard but as you will know by now that's not my style - I like to clearly explain exactly WHY I am doing something.

However, I'll make a compromise. I'll post the hourly setups I take (winners and losers) after the position is closed with a detailed analysis. I'll also continue to make live calls on daily TF and higher.
 
Lurker,

The best looking pin of the three you mention is actually the Usd/Jpy based on the bar ITSELF.

Hi TD,

USDJPY pin looks good, but there is no fib confluence or S/R / pivots to identify. Is that right what iam viewing?

Fxbee
 

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Fxbee, I'm afraid I don't want to make any more live calls based on the hourly TF. I made one on Aud/Cad when I started this thread and have, over the course of other posts, tried to explain how I operate on this lower TF.

This TF requires faster reactions and I don't have the time while concentrating on a position to start posting. A simple post with entry and exit is not too hard but as you will know by now that's not my style - I like to clearly explain exactly WHY I am doing something.

However, I'll make a compromise. I'll post the hourly setups I take (winners and losers) after the position is closed with a detailed analysis. I'll also continue to make live calls on daily TF and higher.

TD,
Yes i understand your point. Even your detailed analysis would be great.

Fxbee
 
Hi TD,

USDJPY pin looks good, but there is no fib confluence or S/R / pivots to identify. Is that right what iam viewing?

Fxbee

Hi Fxbee,

You are right - there is no S/R pivots or fib confluence.

The post you quote refers to the fact that I am comparing the pin on this pair to the pins on Gbp/Jpy and Eur/Jpy. The pin on this pair looks better - it has a longer nose and the body is proportionally small and towards the top of the range and contained within the left eye.

I do take pins if they are at extreme lows or highs which means they will often have no other supporting factors. This is fine for me but it is extremely counter trend and many traders are not comfortable doing this.
 
Setups for the day ahead

With the markets "opening" in a few hours, would TD care to tell us what he is looking for?

I'd be interested to know which setups he is thinking of taking should they transpire. Naturally it would be better to enter some of these high risk daily pins on an hourly bar.

TD - what do you think of USDJPY - I know you mention it is a pin, and without further confluence. Would you consider taking an hourly pin long and holding if it breaks the PDH?
 
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