Keeping track of deltas

[Profitaker]

can i plz remind you 2 of the many times i offered you both good wager opportunities and YOU both TURNED it DOWN! why????:

Remind me again of the exact wager ? How do you suggest integrity is assured (that means cough guarantee to you) ?

Are you still offering those odds old bean ? It's just that you didn't respond to my questions in your post above.

Maybe you overlooked it. No worries, it's just that I'm thinking of taking it on. So can we get down to fine details ?

 

[bulldozer]

Are you still offering those odds old bean ? It's just that you didn't respond to my questions in your post above.

Maybe you overlooked it. No worries, it's just that I'm thinking of taking it on. So can we get down to fine details ?

======================================================================

Profitaker,

I offered you the wager SEVERAL TIMES AT $1,000 TO YOUR $100 AND YOU TURNED IT DOWN EVERY TIME!! :cheesy: I ALSO SAID I WOULD PAY ADMIN THE $$$$$$$$ IF YOU WIN!! TO PASS IT ON TO YOU! AND YOU STILL TURNED IT DOWN!! [ the payments would be made to admin, that way you cant lie that i did not make the payments]

MY LAST OFFER TO YOU WAS MADE A FEW DAYS AGO AND AGAIN YOU TURNED IT DOWN!! THAT OFFER WAS $1000 TO YOUR $300 AND YOU TURNED DOWN WITH SOME CO CK A HOOP EXCUSE on the "GREEKS" AND YOU ALSO SAID YOU WERE DONE WITH THIS THREAD AND POSTS TO BULLDOZER!!! :cheesy: I GAVE YOU LOTS OF DAYS FOR YOU TO DECIDE !!
RIGHT BIG MAN I'M GOING TO OFFER YOU ANOTHER CHANCE TO PROVE ME WRONG!
$3,000 to your $1,000. or BIG MAN would you prefere it to be more fair at $3000 to be paid to the winner BY THE LOOSER :cheesy: [ the looser pays THE MONEY TO ADMIN ON NOVEMBER EXPIRY DAY [the 18th] or within 5 working days after NOV expiry!

Let me remind you of the bet once again: I said i will make a profit from the NOVEMBER SHORT dotm ftse index positions before expiry date. Go back and see how many times i made the offer available to you :cheesy: and plz come back to tell us all of the number of times. :cheesy: NEW offer available for 3 hours or 12 hours or would you prefere 24 hours? incase you need your wife's permision? :cheesy: I'm waiting!

BTW as for guarantees I'm happy to accept the word of a BIG man! I'm sure you can do the same! and to make the wager more interesting the looser stops posting on this forum!! not just this thread but all threads on this forum at T2W for 5 years! :cheesy:
If you cant decide on the $$$$ wager incase your wife refuse's you permission? Would you be happy to settle for the 5 years ban on T2W?! :cheesy: I prefere you make both choices of the wager > the $$$$$$ and the BAN!! :cheesy: the choice is yours BIG man? I'm happy wiv what ever U chooooose! :cheesy:

Bull

 

[bulldozer]

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Well, since our little exchange, the index has fallen 200 points, almost 4%.

The Nov 5075 Puts have gone from 10 to (about) 25 Mid.
The Dec 5025 Puts have gone from 18 to (about) 43 Mid.

Nov05 ATM IV has gone from 8.7% to 13.7%
Dec05 ATM IV has gone from 9.2% to 13.9%

I won’t have the SPAN margin parameters until tonight, but I suspect short margin requirement on those options has gone ballistic !

That’s the leverage you’re selling Mr.Bull.

Question for you - If the index drops another 200 points, assuming IV doesn’t change further, what will those Puts be worth then ? Then same question, but IV doubles from here ?

Not having a go at you Mr. Bull, just trying to highlight your “weak” areas.

================================================================
Mr Profitaker,
Above is a little reminder! and also see your post No 177 you admit you understand the wager!.

I will make a profit from the Nov short position and you said i would not.
The wager was put to you many times! so dont come wiv all that cra p you dont understand what we are talkin about! :cheesy: You seem to have no problems in the past posts about the wager! and your disagreements on my strategy.
Just one more time for your simple mind!
I WILL MAKE A PROFIT FROM THE POSITION BEFORE EXPIRY! AND YOU DISAGREED.
Right now for the wager:
1. if I'm proved to be right and make a profit before expiry? you pay $300.
2. If I'm proved to be wrong and i DONT make a profit before expiry, I WILL PAY THE ADMINASTRATION OF THIS FORUM THE $1,000 TO PASS ON TO YOU! This way you cannot say i did not pay up. Theres no need to get lawyers for this small wager is there? in order to get the papers/contracts drawn out do we?
3. If I'm right and go on to show a profit?! You DONT visit this forum or post on this forum or on any thread on this forum for a period of ONE year or if you want you can have 5 yrs ban from forum? Now this is very simple, what would you like Mr Profitaker ONE or 5 yrs off the forum?[self imposed ban]
4.If I'm wrong and dont make a profit before expiry date 18 th Nov i take a ban for 5 years and NOT one year. [self imposed ban]
5. Do you still have a problem with the 4 points above? what exactly cant you understand? I said I'm happy to accept your word you will pay up! If you do have a problem with the conditions of the MONEY WAGER? i will try harder so that we can come to some agreement!
6. Do you have any problem with number 3 and 4 ? :cheesy: could U plz make a discision soon in 12 hours or do you need24 hours.
7. I have NO point to make on your trading cause i dont know what it is you are tradin. All i know is what youv told me! and that is that you took a BIG BAD WHACK! :cheesy: and that you dont want me to cry over your losses.

My offers were made on posts No's 72, 76, 77, 80,87, 116, 118 and many others.
You said NO to my offers on post 119! :cheesy: Why??

Also on your post 108 you said you were NOT coming back to this thread! So why come back like a dog to his own vomit???


Bull

 

[bulldozer]

mister scum to you.

My apology to you Mister SCUM.

Now lets discuss the wager offer. My 5 year self imposed ban to your ONE year self imposed ban! Is IT ON OR NOT? DO YOU NEED MORE TIME TO DECIDE? :cheesy:

I will make a profit from the NOV 5075 short put before expiry! and your saying i wont! Now, Mister scum we cant both be right can we?? :cheesy: only one can be right ! So do you take the bet YES OR NO? :cheesy: or do you need to ask your 22 yrs young wifey first? you have 12 or 24 hours to decide.

Bull

 

[bulldozer]

November 5075 Puts are currently showing 24 mid price. I wrote them [recieved 10 pts]

Now watch the "THETA" kick in and bring it down BELOW 10 pts before expiry day! :cheesy:

If it goes below 10 pts before expiry? ME WIN AND YOU LOSE!! Writers WIN ! buyers LOSE! :cheesy:

Bull
Happy weekend to all! lurkers too!

 

[SOCRATES]

Mr Scum and Mr Profitaker, I observe you both make a lot of noise but it leads to nothing concrete.

I also observe that Bully is very sure of his ground and unlike the pair of you is willing to put his money where his mouth is. The overall terms of his bet are exceptionally generous.

Surely if either both of you or separately you are certain he is wrong, and you go on and on about it, surely you would accept his bet ?

The fact that you do not accept his bet shows all of us all you can do is make is noise, and some of it very unnecessary and unpleasant.

Bully has given you every chance, even offering a 24 hor extension last night ?

Well ? Are you going to continue with this noise or are we going to see some action, some real committment ?

I am following all of this with great interest, as you appear to inhabit a world different to the world you are in.

Earlier this year I laid a bet with one member for £5000, because like Bully I am also very sure of what it is I make statements on. He chose not to take it up, as he very quickly realised he would not win.

You are fortunate that Bully is betting you comparitively small money, even so you are not willing to accept his bet but you retort again and again with rudeness etc.,

I will continue to follow this saga with great interest.

 

[bulldozer]

Soc,

Thanx for the intervention to help these guys understand the bet. My bet is more than generous like you rightly said.

Infact there was 3 of them at one time and i offered to pay $1,000 to just $100 thats a 10/1 offer. but they would not take it! :cheesy: and they still continue to make noise!

Now I've offered them many bets to chose from and they can chose all my latest offers too [if they wish] including the self imposed ban of 5Yrs against ONE year![for scum] :cheesy: and 5yrs evens to Mr BIG noise himself MR Profitaker with all his VAST knowledge on VEGA ,GAMMA , DELTA , SKEW, VOLTY, MATHS/PRICINGS , BINNARY to hedge the bet! etc etc.
I'm now prepared to offer better odds on the 5 yrs ban to MR BIG PROFITAKER >> 5YRS Self imposed ban for ME if I'm wrong to just ONE year to him! :cheesy: I hope you can clarify the conditions incase they say its not clear enough. :cheesy:

It all started when i said that the writers have the "EDGE" on the buyers and these guys all disagreed with me. I then went on to give a trade which proved that the writer has the edge. All we need to do now is wait to see if the premium/price of the November 5075 PUT drops below 10 pts before expiry day [18 th] :cheesy: I also think on monday 7 th November we will see the price below 10 pts :cheesy:


Bull

 

[Profitaker]

The wager was put to you many times! so dont come wiv all that cra p you dont understand what we are talkin about! Bull

Do you really think I read, never mind understand & remember, all of your drivel ?

You DONT visit this forum or post on this forum or on any thread on this forum for a period of ONE year or if you want you can have 5 yrs ban from forum? Bull

Why would you not want me to post Mr.B ? Is it because I embarrass you ?

Anyway, if you look at the Nov 5075 Put data which I posted above, you’ll see that the delta was 0.29 (or 29%) which is pretty much the odds you’re offering (£ 1000 / £ 300). So no, I won’t be accepting your generous offer. If however the option delta moves in to around 0.50 I’ll take you money.... and short a 5075 Put binary against the wager giving me a win-win arb. Of course this won’t make any sense to you since you don’t have the faintest clue when it comes to option trading. But roughly translated means “Don’t call us, we’ll call you”.

Had to laugh at your posts on the Broker’s thread. BTW, did you know there is an easy and legitimate way to avoid broker margin surcharge ?

Mr Scum and Mr Profitaker, I observe you both make a lot of noise but it leads to nothing concrete.

That’s because the opponent is an empty vessel, who will discuss anything apart from the nuts and bolts of option trading. What does that tell you ?

Surely if either both of you or separately you are certain he is wrong, and you go on and on about it, surely you would accept his bet ?

I never, at any time, said he wouldn’t make a profit from shorting those DOTM Puts (did you say you followed this thread). What you will find however, that I pointed out the severe risk involved in this strategy. Not for his benefit you understand, but for anyone else who might think it’s money for old rope, as Mr. B would have you believe. There was massive leverage in those options, just look at how the margin requirements have changed following a modest Footsie fall. To get any decent return on capital (ROC) significant quantities would need to have been shorted and if he did that then his broker would have liquidate his positions by now. If he sensibly shorts only a few, leaving plenty of cash for margin calls, then his ROC would be very poor indeed. He can’t have it both ways, and the truth never got in his way when replying.

Implied volatility is an indicator of supply and demand – what does the DOTM IV tell you ?

You are fortunate that Bully is betting you comparitively small money, even so you are not willing to accept his bet but you retort again and again with rudeness etc.,

I am fortunate with many things in life, but encountering him isn’t one of them. Mr. B won’t understand my reasons for declining the bet, odds, delta and probability never were his strong point. Do me a favour and explain it to him please.

I will continue to follow this saga with great interest.

It would be even better if you made a contribution of substance.

It all started when i said that the writers have the "EDGE" on the buyers and these guys all disagreed with me. I then went on to give a trade which proved that the writer has the edge. All we need to do now is wait to see if the premium/price of the November 5075 PUT drops below 10 pts before expiry day [18 th] Bull

Do you think that will prove who had the edge ? Clearly you don't understand the concept of "edge" or advantage.

 

[bulldozer]

Do you really think I read, never mind understand & remember, all of your drivel ?

Why would you not want me to post Mr.B ? Is it because I embarrass you ?

Anyway, if you look at the Nov 5075 Put data which I posted above, you’ll see that the delta was 0.29 (or 29%) which is pretty much the odds you’re offering (£ 1000 / £ 300). So no, I won’t be accepting your generous offer. If however the option delta moves in to around 0.50 I’ll take you money.... and short a 5075 Put binary against the wager giving me a win-win arb. Of course this won’t make any sense to you since you don’t have the faintest clue when it comes to option trading. But roughly translated means “Don’t call us, we’ll call you”.

Had to laugh at your posts on the Broker’s thread. BTW, did you know there is an easy and legitimate way to avoid broker margin surcharge ?

That’s because the opponent is an empty vessel, who will discuss anything apart from the nuts and bolts of option trading. What does that tell you ?

I never, at any time, said he wouldn’t make a profit from shorting those DOTM Puts (did you say you followed this thread). What you will find however, that I pointed out the severe risk involved in this strategy. Not for his benefit you understand, but for anyone else who might think it’s money for old rope, as Mr. B would have you believe. There was massive leverage in those options, just look at how the margin requirements have changed following a modest Footsie fall. To get any decent return on capital (ROC) significant quantities would need to have been shorted and if he did that then his broker would have liquidate his positions by now. If he sensibly shorts only a few, leaving plenty of cash for margin calls, then his ROC would be very poor indeed. He can’t have it both ways, and the truth never got in his way when replying.

Implied volatility is an indicator of supply and demand – what does the DOTM IV tell you ?
I am fortunate with many things in life, but encountering him isn’t one of them. Mr. B won’t understand my reasons for declining the bet, odds, delta and probability never were his strong point. Do me a favour and explain it to him please.

It would be even better if you made a contribution of substance.
Do you think that will prove who had the edge ? Clearly you don't understand the concept of "edge" or advantage.

==========================================================
Mr Profitaker/Mr Lossmaker/Mr, Oddsmaker,

I told you many times in my posts!:.> The margin responsability,my hedge on positions if i need it is my concern and all the "Greeks" stuff is my concern etc etc, The BET WAS the writer wins 85% to less than 15 % for the BUYERS You came in and said that was NOT the case! :cheesy: check out your comments on posts or do you want me to find them? :cheesy:

Name your acceptable $$$$$$$$ odds plz SIR? :cheesy:

How about 10 yrs ban for me to just ONE year for you? :cheesy:

OR 20 yrs to just one year?

 

[bulldozer]

Mr Prof, Mr Copout

your quote> "Anyway, if you look at the Nov 5075 Put data which I posted above, you’ll see that the delta was 0.29 (or 29%) which is pretty much the odds you’re offering (£ 1000 / £ 300). So no, I won’t be accepting your generous offer. If however the option delta moves in to around 0.50 I’ll take you money.... and short a 5075 Put binary against the wager giving me a win-win arb. Of course this won’t make any sense to you since you don’t have the faintest clue when it comes to option trading."

NAME YOUR ACCEPTABLE $$$$$$$$$$$ ODDS PLZ SIR? :cheesy: to give you the edge on Binnary ARB!

Bull

You dont need to be a genius to have brains! BUT you need brains in the RIGHT place to be a genius :cheesy:

 

[Profitaker]

So now you are asking for higher odds? What odds would be acceptable to you?Bull

I'm expecting a higher open on Monday, also IV to drop, both factors taking the delta out. I'd need to check the Binary quotes on Monday, but I would think somewhere in the region £ 100,000 / £ 10000. I would insist both parties lodged bank guarantees in advance with some mutally acceptable wording in writing. I'll come up with the exact odds I'm prepared to accept before Monday lunchtime if you're interested, but ballpark you have above.

 

[RUDEBOY]

Profittaker and options, eh? The intricate mechanism of options doesn't give you an overall better knowledge of price movement within any specific market does it now. The basics of options trading still relies on the individual to be able to judge the market price on the time frame they wish to take on. Does it not?

 

[RUDEBOY]

Options traders........quite a phenomenon in it's self. If price action was not so hard to understand for some people, they had to include the options theory, which in itself with all the greek faff, only tries to explain price action anyway. Options? What's the problem?

 

[Profitaker]

Profittaker and options, eh? The intricate mechanism of options doesn't give you an overall better knowledge of price movement within any specific market does it now. The basics of options trading still relies on the individual to be able to judge the market price on the time frame they wish to take on. Does it not?

Agreed, but if "one" doesn't understand the "intricate mechanisms of options" one loses ones shirt PDQ.

Dinner beckons, to be continued...

 

[bulldozer]

Profittaker and options, eh? The intricate mechanism of options doesn't give you an overall better knowledge of price movement within any specific market does it now. The basics of options trading still relies on the individual to be able to judge the market price on the time frame they wish to take on. Does it not?

Well said RB and also 100% CORRECT in what you say!

I will try to simplify for the sake of the viewers and novices:- The writer of DOTM Short Put index Options is 85 percent sure he will make a profit BEFORE the trade is placed and he is also 85% sure the profits can be taken BEFORE the date of expiry! And he has to be 100 % SURE that he can cover the margin requirments during the life time of the trade! :cheesy: AND he is 100 % sure that he has plan B to convert position or rolling positions over. :cheesy:

Bull

 

[bulldozer]

Remind me again of the exact wager ? How do you suggest integrity is assured (that means cough guarantee to you) ?

Pitscum

This clueless bloke is begging to throw his money away. Think I might just take it and lay it off
with a binary.

================================================================

Mr Profitaker, Mr lossmaker, Mr Oddsmaker, Mr MILLION$$$$$$Man :cheesy:

Yes thats right I'm throwing money away to you both! :cheesy: and your so dumb you dont want to take it! :cheesy: do you have to think that long to take free money thats being thrown away? :cheesy: Just a bit curiuos how long does it take you to place a trade? weeks, months, yrs perhaps?? :cheesy:

Bull

 

[SOCRATES]

That’s because the opponent is an empty vessel, who will discuss anything apart from the nuts and bolts of option trading. What does that tell you ?

.

It tells me five things for starters the first is that he is very sure of his ground and the second is that despite prodding he is not willing to discuss or give away his methods. The third is that he is willing to put his money where his mouth is and the fourth is that he insists on it and the fifth is that he is even willing to stack the odds even higher, I respectfully submit to you, Profittaker.

 

[bulldozer]

Agreed, but if "one" doesn't understand the "intricate mechanisms of options" one loses ones shirt PDQ.

Dinner beckons, to be continued...

Soc,

Perhaps he still having his dinner and forgot that some viewers are still waiting for the genius to make his appearance :cheesy:

He may even come up wiv a brilliant idea like $1Million to $100,000 still 10/1odds? :cheesy: and that we need to meet up wiv his solicitors in L A or THE MOON to tie up the wager contracts :cheesy:

Bull
As they say ;> Life is full of surprises :cheesy: and monkeys too?

 

[SOCRATES]

His original statement is that 80% of Options expire worthless, that the buyer loses and the writer gets to keep all the premium and that is correct and you cannot deny it.

In fact it has been shown the the percentage is even higher, more like 85% to 87 %.

It is textbook stuff, I cannot see why you persist in arguing the way you do.

 

[badtrader]

bulldozer

Have you read this http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=17473