Journal Take 2 - Chart Patterns

[natureboy]

I'm beginning to employ RadarScreen in TradeStation as well, so this will help my organization and speed in finding pattern trading opportunities. I plan on keeping this journal going for a while longer.

 

[natureboy]

I'm sure everyone is managing their own business. Me, i got long on EURUSD closer to 430. We'll see if this push up is the real deal. I'm looking for a run to 1.32 with a major turn around 950.. who knows

 

[natureboy]

recent past. i'll update when another one happens (if..)

 

[natureboy]

On the GBPAUD, if it can get above 1.5555, i'll be starting to get long on that 2hr pattern. Willing to cough up 1% to see if it works or not.

 

[natureboy]

Here's a current one in GBPUSD:

 

[natureboy]

real close to being stopped out on GBPUSD.. i'll post pics in a minute

 

[natureboy]

Ok, looked as good as any other. This one just didn't work out like i thought it might.

Using 1m HeikenAshi, i waited for a turn up signaled by HA - and went long at 1.6154, stop loss close at 1.6150 - was targeting 1.6173 so even with losses, you do trades that have 4:1 reward to risk on a regular basis, you don't need to be right every time to make money.

 

[natureboy]

correction on the EURUSD is taking longer than expected as well.. Should kick off around 720, back up probably.. though now i'm much less confident of 1.32. If some huge volatility drops in, sure.. US employment data around 830.. could be. We'll see. I'm still long on the EURUSD, avg price 1.3110, so i'm scratching B/E right now, waiting

 

[natureboy]

On Cable, there is still in fact a larger M pattern at work. Catch a falling knife comes to mind. And those Zecco Zirens, anybody seen them? haha Its hard to catch THE low, yet it can be done. Strength is rolling over for GBP last i looked, so i'm not crazy about buying it right now.

Below 1.3103, i'm out on the EURUSD as well.

 

[natureboy]

Then again, strength can mislead.. the move up in cable from 430 has retraced about 50%.. if its in uptrend mode, this is a great level to buy. A nice bounce from the 5m 200 SMA would get my attention

 

[natureboy]

All right, i'm going long on Cable one more time.

 

[natureboy]

killed

 

[natureboy]

looks like i've been fooled by randomness. Signals to go long EURUSD yet.... again.. so, for the last time today, i'm getting on it.

 

[natureboy]

GBPAUD finally breaking up. who knows if it'll trend..

 

[natureboy]

done with the EURUSD.. may go short by 845.. nightmare.

 

[natureboy]

M12 on the EURUSD... The way this day's been going, who knows * figs
.. is near a support level

 

[natureboy]

what a ****ty day.

 

[natureboy]

There's a d**k on my back! - YouTube

good day people. i'm going to recharge..

 

[Jason Rogers]

Another indicator I find interesting and useful is the DailyFX Sentiment - supposedly a measure of retail traders at FXCM long and short positions. It does appear very helpful for contrarian trading - since the move up in EURUSD from 10/11, retail traders have been net short, implying more upside. That still holds, so more upside likely.. once they start moving net long, the top will be near. haha, love it

**and why the hell aren't the retail traders looking at this sentiment reading? are there really that many of them that don't look at a public stat from their own broker??!?

Hey natureboy,

Noticed your post about SSI positioning, and it's something I follow myself also. Traders are starting to load up on EUR/USD short positions right as the pair approaches significant resistance. The low volatility in the market could play to the short positions advantage, but big risk of a breakout here. I'll definitely be watching.

Cheers,

Jason

 

[natureboy]

Thanks Jason. On my Chart Pattern view: The Daily Pattern is bearish, the 4hr shows price currently at prior R that may be S above 1.3035. That pattern D point could move higher into the next resistance area, which would be the bullish scenario. The 4hr Trend Line makes it simple for me to follow the trend up, below 1.3025 i'm not expecting the same upside near term. Even though the pattern is bearish, and there was some convincing selling following a fair bit of indecision near 1.3120, and the 4hr strength meter is bearish... wait a minute... i'm almost going short here.. haha



We'll see how it pans out!